Verona High SchoolAP Statistics

2012 Summer Assignment

Bob Cashillrcashill@veronaschools.org...908-403-7370

http://www.veronaschools.org/cashill

VHS AP Statistics Summer Assignment—2011-12

The Urban Dictionary defines AP Statistics as:

A division of math that requires much writing and analytical thought. Taken by AP nerds, those hell bent on going to the 'best' colleges, or by those with a masochistic streak. Can be taken in place of Calculus, or, for those who really enjoy self-punishment, concurrently. Mostly taken by seniors.

"I'm taking AP Statistics this year because I don't feel like taking AP Calc, but my year wouldn't be hellish enough without it."

Welcome to AP Statistics! This course will be unlike any other math class you have ever taken! Before taking this course, however, you will need to be competent in basic algebra, be familiar with basic statistical measures, and you must be willing to explain your answers, not just simply get the correct answer.

Although this is a math course, AP Statistics concentrates much more heavily on thinking, reasoning, writing, and communicating than it does on number-crunching. Graphing calculators and computer software programs do most of the tedious “busy work” for us.

This course is focused on four interrelated areas of concentration;

Exploring Data . What patterns in a set of data do you see? What do these tell us about the data? What can we learn from them?

Sampling and Experimenting . What plan would you implement to conduct a study? Can you effectively write a proposal for simulating a real-world situation?

Anticipating Patterns . What can you surmise about random phenomena by using probability? How can you extrapolate your model into the future? What might you hope to have happen?

Statistical Inference . How can you apply given parameters to your test hypothesis to see if it is valid?

In this class you will learn to describe and analyze sets of data and use that analysis to draw conclusions about the situations that generated the data.

This summer assignment is meant to introduce you to the wide world of statistics, to have you "hit the ground running" (sorry for the cliché) and allow us to move at a "fast and furious" pace throughout the year.

Since you will obviously have many other things to do this summer, pace yourself! 60-90 minutes per week, on average, or 8-10 hours on the night before school starts, should enable you to do all of the required work.

A. Buy a Good Calculator

It is strongly recommended that you buy a TI-Nspire™ CX CAS Handheld or one of the other Ti-Nspires as we will be using that almost exclusively. We will have a class set but the calculator is a great investment.

B. Moodle

If you have not already done so, please register on Moodle and sign up for our course--AP Statistics. We will use Moodle regularly throughout the year to post resources and to interact with the class. Attachment A shows you the steps to register and enroll. Please do this no later than 6/30 and check out the course site regularly during the summer.

The AP Statistics Moodle site is broken into sections that correspond to the sections in each chapter. Feel free to watch some of the videos/open some of the resources over the summer.

C. “How to Lie with Statistics”

Read the short book “How to Lie with Statistics” by Darrell Huff. Although this book was written in 1954, its wisdom is needed now more than ever, as increasing computer power and our headline-obsessed media look set to drown us all in a sea of "statisticulation". This is the word coined by Darrell Huff to describe misinformation by the use of statistical material.

"How to Lie with Statistics" is entertainingly illustrated with original cartoons and written in a clear and easy style. It is short--128 pages and that includes illustrations--so you can easily read it at a single sitting or two.

You can purchase a copy online, download an eBook (about $6.00) or borrow a copy from the library. Your assignment is to read the book and concisely answer questions about each chapter in Attachment B.

D. The Joy of Stats

The Joy of Stats is a 59 minute long documentary which takes viewers on a rollercoaster ride through the wonderful world of statistics to explore the remarkable power they have to change our understanding of the world. It is presented by superstar boffin (British slang for a particularly clever person) Professor Hans Rosling, whose eye-opening, mind-expanding and funny online lectures have made him an international internet legend.

Rosling's presentations are grounded in solid statistics illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling takes this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

The video must be watched on Moodle.

If you think that this will be boring, take a look at this 4 minute video--"200 Years, 200 Countries" by Professor Rosling that tracks per capita income over time. This is also posted on Moodle.

E. Real World Statistics Portfolio

The beauty of statistics is that it is all around us. We see examples of good and bad stats every single day in newspapers and magazines, on newscasts and sporting events and on a host of web sites--especially those dealing with politics, the economy and the government.

To really see how statistics impacts our lives, a major part of your summer assignment is to develop a Real World Statistics Portfolio. Begin to collect newspaper, magazine, video or internet articles/stories/advertisements that include statistical concepts--both good and bad. These may include things like graphs, charts or averages. They may also report conclusions made as a result of looking at data. For each article/web page/etc., highlight the statistics mentioned and answer the following questions:

a. What was the purpose of the article/statistic/data? Why was it written/produced? b. Were any conclusions stated? If so, what were they? c. Is the article/statistics/data convincing? Do you believe the stated results? Explain.

There is no minimum number of entries you must have but you should have at least 10 articles by September. I will post links on Moodle to some great web sites that you use to do your research.

F. Stat Trek--Teach Yourself Statistics

This web site (http://stattrek.com/) provides training and tools to help you solve statistics problems quickly, easily, and accurately--without having to ask anyone for help.

It is strongly recommended that you work through the "Exploring Data" section of AP Statistics tutorial. This covers the basics, charts and graphs, regression and categorical data--much of which should be familiar to you already. These topics will be the first ones we study in September and the more you know now, the faster we can progress.

If you want to see what you're up against next May, take the practice exam on the site before you start the tutorial. (http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-4/AP-Statistics-Practice-Exam-1.aspx?Tutorial=ap)

G. Freakonomics

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything is a best-selling 2005 book by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and New York Times journalist Stephen J. Dubner. The book is not a statistics book, per se, but the authors make interesting uses of data--and data analysis-- to explore a host of fascinating topics.

The book is a collection of 'economic' articles written by Levitt, an expert who has already gained a reputation for applying economic theory to diverse subjects not usually covered by "traditional" economists. In Freakonomics, Levitt and Dubner argue that economics is, at root, the study of incentives.

Freakonomics now has its own web site (http://www.freakonomics.com/), blog, radio show and podcasts.

Your mission--should you choose to accept it--is to become familiar with any and all of Freakonomics. Read the book, listen to the podcasts or radio broadcast, or read the blogs. You do not need to document anything--only absorb the information. Do as much or as little as you want.

H. Beach Reading

If you have the time and want to delve a little further into the world of statistics, try reading one or more of the following books. Not required at all.

Stat-Spotting: A Field Guide to Identifying Dubious Data by Joel Best The Numbers Game--The Commonsense Guide to Understanding

Numbers in the News, in Politics, and in Life by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot

Polling Matters by Frank Newport Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein Chances Are; Adventures in Probability by Michael Kaplan Tainted Truth by Cynthia Crossen, Simon & Schuster, 1994 The Culture of Fear: Why Americans are Afraid of the Wrong Things by Barry Glassner. The Drunkard’s Walk, How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely, Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists,

J. Best, University of California Press, 2001. More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues, J. Best, University of

California Press, 2004. The Lady Tasting Tea, D. Salsburg, Owl Books, 2001. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper, J. A. Paulos, Basic Books, 1995. 200% of Nothing, A. K. Dewdney, John Wiley and Sons, 1993. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, N. Taleb, Thomson, 2004 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, N. Taleb, Thomson, 2007 Bringing Down the House: How Six Students Took Vegas for Millons, B. Mezrich, Free Press,

2002 Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, M. Lewis, Norton, 2003 Tainted Truth: The Manipulation of Fact In America, C. Crossen The Ghost Map: The Story of London's Most Terrifying Epidemic—and How It Changed

Science, Cities, and the Modern World, S. Johnson The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, M. Gladwell, Little, Brown &

Co., 2002 Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You, G. Gigerenzer, Simon and

Schuster, 2002 News & Numbers: A Guide to Reporting Statistical Claims and Controversies in Health and

Other Fields, V. Cohn Aging With Grace: What the Nun Study Teaches Us About Leading Longer, Healthier, and

More Meaningful Lives, D. Snowden, Bantom Press, 2002 Randomness, D. Bennett, Harvard University Press, 1998 Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes, Mark J. Penn, 2007

Attachment A: How to Set Up Your Moodle Account

1. Browse to http://moodle.veronaschools.org.

2. Login using your login and password you would use on a computer at school.

3. Fill in your email address--use one that you actually read!

4. Fill in City with: Verona, NJ.

5. Select Country as: United States.

6. Scroll to the bottom and click on the "Update Profile" button.

7. You'll get a message saying you've been sent an email from Moodle.

8. Read your email and look for an email with the subject "Confirmation of email update at Verona Public Schools", then click on the link in the email.

9. Log out of Moodle.

10. Log back into Moodle....you should see your courses.

Attachment B: "How to Lie with Statistics"

Part 1: Q & A

Chapter 1. “The Sample with the Built-in Bias”

1. What is a sample?2. Give an example of bias from the book.3. What is a random sample?4. What is a stratified random sample?5. Give an example of a stratified random sample from the book.

Chapter 2. “The Well-Chosen Average”

1. Define the following terms:

Skewed Mean Median Mode

Chapter 3. “The Little Figures That Are Not There”

1. Why should you be suspicious of a small sample?2. Average alone is misleading. Why?3. What is a better description than average (or center)?4. Why is it important to label all graphs?

Chapter 4. “Much Ado about Practically Nothing”

1. What is probable error?2. What does probability error have to do with Linda’s and Peter’s IQs?3. Explain how the advertisement for Old Gold described on page 59 is dishonest.

Chapter 5. “The Gee-Whiz Graph”

1. What is a misleading graph?2. Why is it important to label the axis of every graph you make in Statistics?

Chapter 6. “The One-Dimensional Picture”

1. Why are picture graphs used?2. How can they be deceptive?

Chapter 7. “The Semiattached Figure”

1. What is a semiattached figure? Give an example from the book.2. Why should you watch for semiattached figures?3. How do before-and-after pictures use semiattached figures?

Chapter 8. "Post Hoc Rides Again"

1. Can you say that "A" causes "B" just because “B” follows “A”?2. Name another reason why “B” follows “A” if “A” does not cause “B”.3. Why should you not take a correlation beyond the data? (see p 91)

Chapter 9. "How to Statisticulate"

1. How can maps be used to deceive?2. If a number has lots of places after the decimal, is it more accurate? Explain3. If your pay is decreased by 50% and then increased by 50% is it back to what it was to begin

with? Explain.4. How are Percentiles a way to Statisticulate?

Chapter 10. "How to Talk Back to a Statistic"

1. What are the 5 questions you should ask when looking at a statistic?2. What was the problem with the "Journal of Commerce" survey?3. Give an example of how the subject can be changed.4. What did Mark Twain say about the nonsense side of extrapolation in Life on the Mississippi?

Part 2: Misleading Statistics

After you have finished reading the book scan through the pages and pick out your two favorite examples of ways that people have been or can be misled by statistics. Summarize the circumstances around each occurrence in your own words, and state what should have been done better or in a different way.

At least one of the two must be a graphical example (show/redraw the picture/scan). Make it neat and explain carefully what is wrong! Do not directly quote the book. Put everything in your own words.