Policyng.com August 30. 2014

ISIS CALIPHATE CARD Rise of Extremism in Africa and Europe’s addiction to Russian Energy

AL-QAEDA: A Common thread in global terrorism

ISIS Quest for a caliphate: The reigning end-game of Islamic extremism

Ever since ISIS’ divorce from Al-Qaeda in February 2014, the group through unremittingly violent attacks majorly in Iraq and Syria has come much closer to the end goal of an Islamic caliphate than Al-Qaeda ever did. The most recent realities in the world of extremism and terrorism is that the Islamic State (IS) – now the most powerful and dangerous jihadist network – is not just an insane, murderous group adhering to a violent medieval ideology, rather it is a rational strategic enterprise with one clear goal: to establish a caliphate through horrific but deliberate politico-military strategy that exploits popular discontent among Sunni Muslims in both Iraq and Syria while pursuing an almost genocidal campaign against Iraqi Christians and Yazidis.

In some ways, the attention garnered by the achievement of the Islamic state (independent funding and rule of captured territories) is already an inspiration to other extremist groups such as Nigeria’s Boko Haram; whose leader Abubakar Shekau recently declared the captured town of Gwoza in north eastern Borno state an Islamic caliphate. Although, compared to the Islamic State, Boko Haram pales in funding and tactical training, nevertheless the jihadist events in Iraq and Syria seem to be shaping their direction and overall approach which in turn further jeopardizes Nigeria’s sovereignty. If Shekau steps up his brutal campaign by a notch or two and borrows a line from ISIS book of proto-government (socializing with the civilians in the territories they control despite the imposition of extremist interpretation of Islamic laws), then he just might gain more global attention compared to the chibok kidnappings.

Given these recent turn of events, it is to be expected that more Islamic extremist groups in troubled regions will play the ‘caliphate card’ and most likely adopt a more gradualist approach rather than waiting to overrun their whole country before declaring a jihadist republic.

This possibility presents a huge challenge to world security particularly fragile and failed states.

Starting from the Middle East, a radical take over (such as the one pursued by the Islamic State) will further entrench solidarity among Muslims with separatist agendas and extremist tendencies which will no doubt spread terrorism in the region. The consequence of such possibility will be a growing confidence that a new caliphate is not just a dream. And since Syria’s war has no end in sight and Iraq remains in a mess, the declaration of a caliphate will continue to have far reaching effect. With thousands of foreign fighters from across the world who will return home as radicalized fighters ready to fight for and defend the idea of a ‘caliphate’, many countries are undoubtedly at risk.

Terrorism in Africa Terrorism in African regions

According to john Habasen from Africa in world politics, Africa is no more immune to the threats from terrorism than any other continent. Its combination of relatively weak states, ethnic and religious diversity and sometime discrimination, its poverty and in many places its ungoverned space all lend Africa a significant susceptibility to the growth of radical and sometimes internationally connected movements that employ terrorism. The increase in terrorism and insurgencies across the continent has generated different responses form different regions with the help of untitled state counter-terrorism strategies in most. Observations from security and policy analysts have shed some light on the state and history of terrorism in different African regions.

The horn of Africa is the place to begin. It is Africa’s bridge to the Middle East and has been the object of the most intense and most militarized US response to terrorism in Africa. It has a history of long standing relationship with international terror threats. In recent times, the countries in this region have made headlines connected to terror

attacks. Before the eventual rise of al-Shabaab, Somalia was already on the terror radar screen. The activities of fundamental Islamic groups in the country fuelled the existing political crisis leading to the takeover of power in 2006 and the establishment of a strictIslamist government. Military intervention from Ethiopia quickly dislodged the Islamist movement from Mogadishu, but the after effect was the rise of the terror group al-Shabaab. Another country in the region with a deeply enmeshed tie to international terrorism is Sudan. In 1991, at the invitation of Hassan Al-Turabi leader of the nation Islamic front that had seized power then, OsamaBin laden lived in Sudan for five years crating a base for regional and international terrorism. At that time, various networks of radical and terrorist groups operated within the country earning it a spot on the US list of countries supporting terrorism.

In East and Southern Africa, the presence of al-Qaeda was apparent in countries like Tanzania, Zambia, the Comoros and others. As at 2007, in all these countries there were reports of invigorated religious activity from abroad particularly from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan mostly in the form of building mosques, providing imams and preachers, and developingMuslim social and welfare organizations. These are normal and respectable activities, but from experience in countries like Somalia and Kenya, such activities can provide cover and openings for radical influences.

In West Africa, formidable geography, limited government presence and a long history of smuggling, banditry, human trafficking and violence have all aided the rise of terrorist groups and increased their activities. Prior to the rise of Boko haram in 2009, persistent tensions between Muslim and Christian have always made Nigeria a prize target for terrorism, while the high level of criminality in countries like Mali and Niger made them suitable breeding grounds for terrorism.

Presently, Africa has been deeply drawn into the global war on terror. The horn of Africa has become a front in the military battle against internationally sponsored terrorism due to its intimate link to the Middle East, and North Africa is far more integrated into internationally radical Islamic terrorist activity, while sub-Saharan Africa has also been busy battling its terrorism demons. Indeed, the coming decades may see Africa being more occupied with the challenge of combating terrorism, a reality that has already affected the attainment of the millennium development goals.

Terrorism in Africa Rise of extremism in Africa

The increase in jihadist activity witnessed across Africa in recent years worsens the already fragile situation of the continent. Al-Qaeda’s seeming decline in the middle east has consequently resulted in the breeding of a new generation of Islamic extremist groups in Africa most notably al-Shabaab in Somalia, Boko haram in Nigeria and al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (Algeria). Similar to the rise of the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the civic failures of African states provided these groups the breeding ground that ensured their climbing popularity. In Somalia, decades of war and governmental failures raised al-Shaba’s attractiveness and boldness, pulling over 7000 members and orchestrating audacious Tran’s regional attacks. Boko haram in Nigeria fed on the deep religious and geographical divide that exists in the country and has grown in scale in the northeastern part of the country despite government’s efforts at curbing their violence. In the case of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), it began as an armed faction against a secular state in Algeria similar to Boko haram’s mission statement – fighting against all “non-believer” governments and establishing an Islamic caliphate. The rise of these three notorious extremist groups in Africa’s regional powers (i.e. Nigeria, Kenya and Algeria) is a source of concern to many, especially the united stated. In a recent survey conducted by Pew Research Center, the findings revealed that in Nigeria for instance, 72 percent of the respondents were concerned about Islamic extremism, and the vast majority (82 percent) of Muslims and Christians has an unfavorable view of the Islamist terrorist group, Boko haram. However, regardless of the public resentment and disapproval, these extremist groups will remain hard to handle as long as outside help continues to stream in from outside and the United States’ relentless anti-terror policies across the globe. It is most likely that the upward trend of violence and extremist activities of these groups will continue across the continent, considering the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and the worldwide dissemination of Gadhafi’s missing weapons to those with a motive for violence as well as the significant influence of Syria’s conflict in attracting and raising jihadist fighters. Already, the three separate extremist groups are spreading their erratic ideology leading Africa to the United States’ list of concerns. In combating this rather disconcerting trend in the in the continent, African regional powers such as Nigeria and Kenya are stable enough and with international assistance can develop the capability to combat extremist activities.

Charts from our research team

Growth in Africa African progress report

The annual African progress report, a flagship publication of the African progress panel, released for 2014 takes a look at the risks and opportunities facing Africa and also presents quite a balanced report on the much publicized growth on the continent. According to the report, growth is pushing more and more countries towards middle-income status. In 2006, 13 countries in the region were categorized as middle-income – that is with per capita gross national income (GNI) between US$906 and US$11,115, as calculated by the World Bank Atlas method. Today, the figure has climbed to 21 and based on World Bank projections, another 10 countries could attain middle-income status by 2025 if current growth trends continue. The report identified five broad sources that have driven growth thus far in Africa over the past decade.

For more interactive charts visit http://policymappa.blogspot.com/

Policyng cartoons

For our cartoons visit http://www.pinterest.com/policyng/

For more on global terrorism visit http://www.blog.policyng.com/