Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? …saez/trends_slides.pdfWe analyze trends in...
Transcript of Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? …saez/trends_slides.pdfWe analyze trends in...
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Raj Chetty, Harvard
Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard
Patrick Kline, UC-Berkeley
Emmanuel Saez, UC-Berkeley
Nicholas Turner, Office of Tax Analysis
Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility
The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Internal Revenue Service or the U.S. Treasury Department. This work is a component of a larger project examining the effects of eliminating tax expenditures on the budget deficit and economic activity. Certain results reported here are taken from the SOI Working Paper “The Economic Impacts of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation across the U.S.,” approved under IRS contract TIRNO-12-P-00374.
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Growing public perception that intergenerational mobility has
declined in the United States
Vast literature has investigated whether this is true empirically [e.g., Aaronson and Mazumder 2008, Lee and Solon 2009, Auten, Gee, and Turner
2013]
Results debated partly due to limitations in data [Black and Devereux
2011]
Introduction
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We analyze trends in mobility for 1971-1993 birth cohorts using
administrative data on more than 50 million children and their parents
Two main empirical results
1. Relationship between parent and child percentile ranks (i.e. the
copula) is extremely stable
Chance of moving from bottom to top fifth of income distribution
no lower for children entering labor market today than in the
1970s
2. Inequality increased in this sample, consistent with prior work
Consequences of the “birth lottery” – the parents to whom a
child is born – are larger today than in the past
This Paper
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We use de-identified data from federal income tax returns
Includes non-filers via information forms (e.g. W-2’s)
Data
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Parent(s) defined as first person(s) who claim child as a dependent
Can reliably link children to parents up to age 16, after which
some children leave the house
We link approximately 90% of children to parents overall
Linking Children to Parents
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1. Population tax records starting in 1996
Data on children and parents for the 1980-1993 birth cohorts
40 million children, age 20-31 in 2011
2. Statistics of Income 0.1% Stratified Random Samples 1987-1997
Data on children and parents for the 1971-1982 birth cohorts
Two Samples
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Parent Income: mean pre-tax household income (AGI+SSDI)
Child Income: mean pre-tax household income ages 26 or 29-30
For non-filers, use W-2 wage earnings + SSDI + UI income
If no 1040 and no W-2, code income as 0
These household level definitions capture total resources in the
household
Results robust to using individual-level income measures
Income Definitions
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Measuring Intergenerational Mobility
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Previous literature has measured mobility using various statistics
Log-log intergenerational elasticity
Rank-rank correlations
Transition matrices
Each of these could potentially exhibit different time trends
Begin by formalizing how we measure mobility
Measuring Mobility
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We decompose joint distribution of parent and child income into two
components
1. Joint distribution of parent and child percentile ranks (i.e.,
copula of distribution)
2. Marginal distributions of parent and child income
Marginal distributions determine inequality within generations
Copula is the key determinant of mobility across generations
Rank-rank and transition matrix depend purely on copula
Log-log IGE combines copula and marginal distributions
Measuring Mobility
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We study all three measures, but use a rank-rank specification as
our primary measure
Rank children based on their incomes relative to other
children in same birth cohort
Rank parents of these children based on their incomes
relative to other parents in this sample
In our companion paper on geography of mobility, we show that
rank-rank has statistical advantages over other measures
Rank-Rank Specification
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20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Mean C
hild
Incom
e R
ank
Parent Income Rank
Mean Child Percentile Rank vs. Parent Percentile Rank
Rank-Rank Slope (U.S) = 0.341 (0.0003)
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Literature has emphasized two sources of potential bias in
estimates of intergenerational elasticities
1. Lifecycle bias: measuring earnings too early or too late
2. Attenuation bias: measuring transitory rather than permanent
income
Lifecycle and Attenuation Bias
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Age at which Child’s Income is Measured
Population
Rank-R
ank S
lope
Lifecycle Bias: Intergenerational Income Correlation
by Age at Which Child’s Income is Measured
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Age at which Child’s Income is Measured
Population SOI 0.1% Random Sample
Rank-R
ank S
lope
Lifecycle Bias: Intergenerational Income Correlation
by Age at Which Child’s Income is Measured
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1 4 7 10 13 16
Rank-R
ank S
lope
Years Used to Compute Mean Parent Income
Attenuation Bias: Rank-Rank Slopes
by Number of Years Used to Measure Parent Income 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
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Time Trends
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30
40
50
60
70
0 20 40 60 80 100
1971-74
71-74 Slope = 0.299 (0.009)
Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Birth Cohort
Parent Income Rank
Mean C
hild
Incom
e R
ank
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30
40
50
60
70
0 20 40 60 80 100
1971-74 1975-78
71-74 Slope = 0.299 (0.009)
75-78 Slope = 0.291 (0.007)
Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Birth Cohort
Parent Income Rank
Mean C
hild
Incom
e R
ank
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30
40
50
60
70
0 20 40 60 80 100
Parent Income Rank
1971-74 1975-78 1979-82
71-74 Slope = 0.299 (0.009)
75-78 Slope = 0.291 (0.007)
79-82 Slope = 0.313 (0.008)
Child Income Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Birth Cohort M
ean C
hild
Incom
e R
ank
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 Child's Birth Cohort
Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 30)
Intergenerational Mobility Estimates for the 1971-1993 Birth Cohorts R
ank-R
ank S
lope
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 Child's Birth Cohort
Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 30; SOI Sample)
Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 26; Pop. Sample)
Intergenerational Mobility Estimates for the 1971-1993 Birth Cohorts R
ank-R
ank S
lope
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For younger cohorts, it is too early to measure earnings
But we can measure college attendance, which is a strong
predictor of earnings
Moreover, college-income gradient is highly correlated with
income rank-rank slope across areas of the U.S. [Chetty et al. 2014]
Define college attendance as attending when age 19
Results similar if attendance measured at later ages
College Gradient
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1984-87
Parent Income Rank
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
84-87 Slope = 0.745 (0.008)
Perc
ent
in C
olle
ge a
t 19
College Attendance Rates vs. Parent Income Rank by Cohort
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1984-87 1988-90
Parent Income Rank
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
84-87 Slope = 0.745 (0.008)
88-90 Slope = 0.742 (0.010)
Perc
ent
in C
olle
ge a
t 19
College Attendance Rates vs. Parent Income Rank by Cohort
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1984-87 1988-90 1991-93
Parent Income Rank
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
84-87 Slope = 0.745 (0.008)
88-90 Slope = 0.742 (0.010)
91-93 Slope = 0.705 (0.013)
Perc
ent
in C
olle
ge a
t 19
College Attendance Rates vs. Parent Income Rank by Cohort
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 Child's Birth Cohort
Intergenerational Mobility Estimates for the 1971-1993 Birth Cohorts
Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 30; SOI Sample)
College-Income Gradient
(Child Age 19; Pop. Sample) Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 26; Pop. Sample)
Rank-R
ank S
lope
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Rank-R
ank S
lope
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 Child's Birth Cohort
Intergenerational Mobility Estimates for the 1971-1993 Birth Cohorts
Forecast Based on Age 26
Income and College Attendance
Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 30; SOI Sample)
College-Income Gradient
(Child Age 19; Pop. Sample) Income Rank-Rank
(Child Age 26; Pop. Sample)
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Can obtain a richer prediction of earnings by using information on
which college student attended
Define “college quality” as mean earnings at age 31 of children
born in 1979-80 based on the college they attended at age 20
College Quality
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1984-87 1988-90 1991-93
Parent Income Rank
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mean C
olle
ge Q
ualit
y R
ank
84-87 Coll. Qual Gradient (P75-P25) = 0.191
88-90 Coll. Qual Gradient (P75-P25) = 0.192
91-93 Coll. Qual Gradient (P75-P25) = 0.181
College Quality Rank vs. Parent Income Rank by Cohort
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Trends in College Attendance vs. College Quality Gradients
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994
Colle
ge Q
ualit
y G
radie
nt
(P75
-P25)
Colle
ge A
tte
ndance G
radie
nt
College Quality College Attendance
Child’s Birth Cohort
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Mobility also stable using other statistics
Ex: fraction of children who reach the top quintile
Quintile Transition Probabilities
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986
Child's Birth Cohort
Parent Quintile
Probability of Reaching Top Quintile by Birth Cohort
Q1 Q3 Q5
Pro
babili
ty C
hild
in T
op F
ifth
of In
com
e D
istr
ibution
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Substantial heterogeneity in mobility across areas [Chetty, Hendren, Kline, Saez 2014]
Do these differences persist over time?
Regional Heterogeneity
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Rank-R
ank S
lope
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
Pacific Mountain
New England East South Central
Child's Birth Cohort
Intergenerational Mobility Estimates by Parent’s Census Division
College
Attendance
Age 26
Income
Rank
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Rank-based mobility is not declining in the U.S. as a whole
Combined with evidence from Lee and Solon (2009), mobility
appears to be roughly stable over past half century
But mobility is (and has consistently been) low in the U.S. relative
to most other developed countries (Corak 2013)
Increased inequality consequences of the “birth lottery” larger
Low mobility matters more today than in the past
Discussion
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Results may be surprising given negative correlation between mobility
and inequality in cross-section [Corak 2013]
Based on “Great Gatsby Curve,” one would predict that mobility
should have fallen by 20% [Krueger 2012]
One explanation: much of the increase in inequality is driven by
extreme upper tail (top 1%)
But top 1% income shares are not strongly correlated with mobility
across countries or across areas within the U.S. [Chetty et al. 2014]
Predicted increase in rank-rank slope based on bottom 99% Gini
coefficient (“middle class inequality”) is only 0.3 to 0.32
Discussion
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Key open question: why do some parts of the U.S. have
persistently low rates of intergenerational mobility?
Mobility statistics by birth cohort by commuting zone available
on project website (www.equality-of-opportunity.org)
Future Research
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Download Data on Social Mobility
www.equality-of-opportunity.org/data
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Appendix Figures
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
3 6 9 12 15 18
Age of Child when Parent Income is Measured
Slope of College Attendance Gradient by
Age of Child when Parent Income is Measured
Colle
ge A
tte
ndance G
radie
nt
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Years Used to Compute Mean Child Income
1 2 3 4 5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Rank-R
ank S
lope
Attenuation Bias: Rank-Rank Slopes by
Number of Years Used to Measure Child Income
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Age at which Parent Income is Measured
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55
Rank-R
ank S
lope
Rank-Rank Slope by Age at which Parent Income is Measured
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993
Child’s Birth Cohort
Before Age 19 Before Age 20
Before Age 22 Before Age 25
Slo
pe o
f C
oll.
Att
endance b
y P
ar.
Incom
e G
radie
nt
Robustness of College Attendance Gradient by
Age at which College Attendance is Measured