Iraq Weekly Security ReportJune 2, 2015

Executive Summary• Shia militia and Iraqi security forces record gains in efforts to encircle Ramadi from the south and north east,

despite doubts raised over the prospect of an imminent assault.

• Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continue to face strong resistance in the battle to secure Baiji refinery, as ISIS militants revive attacks at Hajjaj and the Ajil oilfields east of the city.

• Threats posed by tribal conflict and criminal gangs operating in the West Qurna 2 area were further highlighted over the course of the reporting period, with oil and gas workers targeted in a rare case of suspected extortion against local contractor personnel.

National OverviewIraqi ground forces continue gradual advances against ISIS outposts in Anbar and Salahuddin as polit-ical tensions once again flare over the extent of coalition support to the national war effort. Although relations between Iraq and its international allies still remain significantly better than during the later years of the Maliki Premiership, questions of indifference towards foreign recruitment for ISIS (directed at regional neigh-bors Turkey and Saudi Arabia), as well as demands for additional heavy weapon support from European and US allies, continued to raise tensions following last week’s dispute between US and Iraqi authorities and are set to remain a focal point of ongoing talks between coa-lition powers in the French capital this week. Excluded from the negotiations yet again have been the Kurdish and Iranian delegations, players who in practice, if not officially, are now increasingly setting the pace of Iraq’s counter-insurgency campaign. Although ground opera-tions continue to be conducted in partnership with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and under the official oversight of the Minister of Defense, Shia volunteer forces are quickly becoming the driving force behind the govern-ment’s Anbar campaign (formerly dedicated to an alli-ance of Iraqi Police and Sunni tribal fighters), while in the north, Peshmerga units continue to maintain a frontline defense from Tuz Khurmatu (south of Kirkuk) to Gwer and the Sinjar-Syrian border.

Northern Region ISF continue to face strong resis-tance in the battle to secure Baiji refinery, as ISIS militants revive attacks at Hajjaj and the

Security AnalysisMay 26 - June 1, 2015

Ajil oilfields east of the city. Having established control over the vital road linking Baiji north to the refinery complex on May 27, ISF units have suffered repeated bouts of gunfire fire in the facility itself (likely as a consequence of militants shifting from

Reported Violent Incidents May 26 - June 1, 2015

DAHUK

BASRAMUTHANNA

DHI QARNAJAF

MAYSANQADISIYA

KARBALA BABILWASIT

BAGHDADANBAR

ERBIL

SULAIMANIYA

DIYALA

SALAHUDDIN

KIRKUK

NINEVEH

Over 30 Incidents

Over 10 Incidents

Over Five Incidents

At Least One Incident

No Incidents

positions around Dirbaan and Hawijah), though as of the time of writing, federal units remain operational and in command of the complex. Efforts by the ISF to cut off ISIS reinforcements from the north have seen Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) move to the Al Fatha sub-district north of Baiji in recent days and it is likely to be in this location that further heavy clashes will occur In the battle for the PMUs to fully cut off militant supplies south, as was achieved with Tikrit three months earlier. A reduction in militant activity in southern Salahuddin was also identified this week, as ISF teams and a substantial contingent of Badr Organization forces successfully ousted a number of militant staging posts in Kisarat, Sayyid Gharib and Farhatiya as part of a wider operation to rout ISIS fighters from Nebai sub-district. In the long term, disruption of extremist networks from key routes north of Baghdad has the potential to close off key attack routes used by ISIS VBIED cells, and therefore if successful would offer a much needed relief to the capital’s embattled ISF forces and civilian residents.

Central Region Shia militia and Iraqi security forces record gains in efforts to encircle Ramadi from the south and north east despite doubts raised over the prospect of an imminent assault. Continuing from last week’s update, ISF, supported by forces of the Hashad Shabi Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), are understood to have recaptured the suburbs of at-Tash and al-Hamirah south of the provincial capital, having made gains in the Qaryat al Ankur region, directly south of Lake Habbaniyah on May 26. This advance has occurred despite heavy counter-attacks by ISIS forces in the Thar Thar region (25 kilometers north west of Ramadi), including the siege of government facilities on Saturday which is preventing the arrival of further reinforcements to the battle zone. While senior commanders within the PMU have expressed their concerns at what has been termed in the local

press as swift counter-assault against the ISIS take-over in Ramadi, (previous strategy by the militias has been to steadily surround and cut off supply routes around urban centers before contemplating a direct assault), the arrival of large numbers of PMU fight-ers has the potential to substantially disrupt exist-ing security trends in western areas. At present no significant clashes between Shia militia and pro-gov-ernment tribesmen have been reported in Anbar, with as many as 800 Sunni Arabs actually joining the PMU forces at Habbaniyah, according to US Embassy officials this Thursday.

Southern Region Threats posed by tribal conflict and criminal gangs operat-ing in the West Qurna 2 area were further highlighted over the course of the reporting period, with oil and gas workers targeted in a rare case of suspected extortion against local contractor personnel. Occurring on May 26 at approximately 11pm Iraqi time, three field contractors were reported to have been abducted by gunmen close the Izz River by the West Qurna development. While the three were later released unharmed in nearby Maysan province (it has yet to be proven at this time whether a ransom had been paid) the risk of further abductions remains high in the Qurna-Midaina transit corridor of northern Basra. In the days preceding the abduction, three other kidnapping incidents against civilians in the Haweer, Aziza and Khunziri areas were reported, all of which are understood to have been commit-ted by native gangs. Elsewhere in the south, spo-radic clashes continue to occur between rival clan confederations, notably in the Qarmat Ali suburb of Basra and Majar al Kabir area of Maysan gov-ernorate, where over the past seven days at least one person was killed and as many as 11 civilians injured as a consequence of disputes between the Hamadna and Saamir tribes.

Security AnalysisMay 26 - June 1, 2015

DAHUK

BASRAMUTHANNA

DHI QARNAJAF

MAYSANQADISIYA

KARBALA BABILWASIT

BAGHDAD

ANBAR

ERBIL

SULAIMANIYA

DIYALA

SALAHUDDIN

KIRKUK

NINEVEH

Dahuk

Sinjar

Rabia

Mosul

SulaymaniyahKirkuk

Erbil

Tal Afar

Hawija

Badkdida

Al Qairm

Baiji

Tikrit

Rutba

Samarra

Baqubah

BaghdadRamadi

Hit

Haditha

Ad Diwaniyah NajafAl Amarah

Nasiriyah

Basra

Fallujah

Muqdadiyah

Abu Ghraib

Taji

Khalis

Khanaqin

Sulaiman Beg

Jalawla

Sadia

Tuz Khurma

HillahKarbala

Kut

LEGENDKRG Territory

Kurdish Held City

ISF Held City

ISIS Held City

Disputed City

Peshmerga Controlled Areas

Key Security EventsMay 26 - June 1, 2015

AnBAR, MAy 27: Iraqi security forces recapture the towns of at-Tash and al-Hamirah south of Ramadi, a day after the ISF an-nounce the start of the official Anbar counter-offensive.

SAlAHuddIn, MAy 27: ISF secure the road linking Baiji refinery to Baiji town, amid the deployment of Special Forces and heavy air strikes against ISIS positions in northern Salahuddin.

SAlAHuddIn, MAy 29: Peshmerga conducted multiple sorties against Islamic State positions in the northern districts of Tal Afar, killing 10 gunmen and destroying a number of insurgent vehi-cles and heavy weapons platforms.

BASRA, MAy 26: Three Iraqi contractors were reported kidnapped near West Qurna 2, by the Izz River. The victims were engineers contracted to an oil company operating in the area and were released unharmed in the vicinity of al- Azayr, south of Amara in Maysan.

SAlAHuddIn, MAy 27: The Iraqi Ministry of Defense announces a collapse of ISIS resistance in the towns and villages of southern Salahuddin as ISF pursue retreating militant forces in the Dujail, Sayed Gharib, Ishaqi and Kasarat areas.

ERBIl, MAy 30: Coalition air strikes destroyed ISIS weapons and equipment caches in the Gwer sub- district, 30 kilometers west of Erbil, resulting in an undisclosed number of hostile casual-ties.

Politics and Security• uS Official Outlines Ramadi Plan Ahead of Paris Summit – Rudaw. A senior US State Department official has disclosed the key elements of the Iraqi government’s plan to retake the city of Ramadi before a meeting on Tuesday in Paris to discuss strategy for fighting the Islamic State, or ISIS. Officials from 22 coun-tries involved in the global fight against ISIS will gather along with regional leaders such as Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi with the campaign to liberate Ramadi, capital of restive Anbar province, reportedly high on the agenda. “We have to take stock of how the coalition wants to proceed. And the Iraqi prime minister will tell us what the situation is [on the ground],” Laurent Fabius, France’s foreign minister, was quoted as saying late last month by France24 News. Full Article

• uS Bombers Hold Fire on Islamic State Targets Amid Ground Intel Blackout – The Washington Times. Nearly 75 percent of US bombing runs target-ing the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria returned to base without firing any weapons in the first four months of 2015, holding their fire mainly because of a lack of ground intelligence and raising questions about Presi-dent Obama’s key tactic in pushing back an enemy that continues to expand its territory in the war zone. Key lawmakers are growing increasingly frustrated by the slow rate of US bombing sorties, a frustration shared by a former Navy pilot who said in an interview that US forces are clearly needed on the ground in Iraq to help provide targets for these pilots to hit. Full Article

• uK to Boost Military Aid to Iraq, Kurdistan Region – Rudaw The United Kingdom has announced it will boost its commitment to Iraq, agreeing to send military experts to Iraq and the Kurdistan region to train bomb-disposal teams and other Iraqi forces, the UK National Security Council said in a statement on Thurs-day. The UK will send military advisers, trainers and an undisclosed number of soldiers, according to the state-ment. The announcement from the UK described the Kurdistan region as safe and conducive for carrying out military campaigns against the Islamic State. Full Article

Iraq Prime Minister Says Allies Not Doing Enough to Counter Islamic State Iraq’s prime minister on Tuesday accused the inter-national coalition fighting Islamic State of not doing enough to tackle the group, and said important members such as Saudi Arabia are not curbing the flow of foreign fighters to his country. Western and Middle Eastern countries in the coalition are meeting this week in Paris with part of their agenda to per-suade the Iraqi government to repair its relationship with Iraq’s Sunni minority.

The meeting follows the Iraqi government’s biggest military setback in nearly a year. On May 17, Islamic State seized Ramadi from the weakened Iraqi army. The capital of the overwhelmingly Sunni Anbar prov-ince is just 90 kilometers (55 miles) west of Baghdad. Since then, government troops and Shi’ite militias have been building up positions around the city. Many of Iraq’s minority Sunnis dislike hardline Sunni Islamic State but also fear the Shi’ite militias after years of bloody sectarian strife. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a moderate Shi’ite, can only persuade Sunni tribes to fight Islamic State if he demonstrates that he can control the powerful Shi’ite militias whose military muscle he now depends on.

Source: Reuters. Full Article

News SummaryMay 26 - June 1, 2015

Economics and Business

• Two Million Refugees and Internally displaced Persons (IdPs) in Kurdistan Region – Kurdish Globe. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) officials have announced that 2 million people are now seeking refuge in the region, as civilians from the eastern Iraqi province of Anbar continue to flee Islamic State (IS) advances in the area. Communi-cation Director for the Erbil Governorate, Hamza Hamid, says that within the last month, over 14,000 refugees and displaced people have arrived in Erbil. KRG Manager for Refugee Affairs Dindar Zebari explained that the KRG is experiencing an economic crisis and is not able to manage the huge wave of displaced. Full Article

• Ex-Maersk Oil Exec To lead Gulf Keystone – Sky news. A controversial London-listed oil com-pany is lining up the appointment of a new chief executive less than a year after appointing its current boss. Sky News has learned that Gulf Keystone Petro-leum is close to announcing that Jon Ferrier, a senior executive at Danish-based Maersk Oil, will replace John Gerstenlauer at the helm. Gulf Keystone hopes that the appointment of Ferrier, which could come as soon as this month, will be viewed by investors as an important milestone after years of turbulence sparked by investors’ fury over boardroom pay and corporate governance. Ferrier, a British national, has worked at some of the oil industry’s largest compa-nies, including ConocoPhillips. Full Article

Key Upcoming DatesJune 18 - 19 Beginning of Ramadan

July 14 Republic day

Iraq Begins Heavy Oil Exports After Complaints About Quality

Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer, is set to increase exports after starting a new grade of crude to quell customer complaints about the quality of its oil. The Basrah Heavy crude will be exported for the first time starting Monday, shipped from the south on the Persian Gulf, Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on his Facebook page. Orders for this month total 850,000 barrels a day, he said. “This step is not only necessary but a must to preserve Iraq’s crude reputation,” Abdul Mahdi said. “We received a lot of complaints, and had to cut output in a number of fields.”

Iraq is struggling to overcome both an Islamic State insurgency and years of under-investment in its oil industry. The country boosted exports to a record 3.1 million barrels a day in April, the International Energy Agency said in monthly report. With the new grade, Iraq will probably be able to ship 3.3 million barrels a day by the end of this year, according to Hamza Al-Jawahiri, an oil analyst in Iraq. Only Saudi Arabia is bigger among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Source: Bloomberg. Full Article

News SummaryMay 26 - June 1, 2015

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