Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor - December 2020€¦ · Questions are asked of the total...
Transcript of Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor - December 2020€¦ · Questions are asked of the total...
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IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR NOVEMBER 2020
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© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential
VOTINGINTENTION
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public3
Holyrood voting intention: constituency vote
All with a voting intentionHeadline voting intention
SNP lead = +33
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 20-26 November 2020; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (833); All with a voting intention: all expressing a voting
intention (921). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is
a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in
mind when calculating party lead figures.
How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?
55%
22%
14%
6%
1%
1%
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
Green Party
Other
54%
22%
15%
6%
1%
1%
1%
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
Green Party
IndependentCandidate
Other
SNP lead = +32
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
47%
22%
16%
7%
6%
1%
1%
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Green Party
Lib Dems
IndependentCandidate
Other
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Holyrood voting intention: list vote
All with a voting intentionHeadline voting intention
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?
SNP lead = +25
Base: 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 20-26 November 2020; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (833); All with voting intention: all expressing a voting
intention (933). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is
a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in
mind when calculating party lead figures.
48%
21%
16%
7%
6%
1%
1%
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Green Party
Lib Dems
IndependentCandidate
Other
SNP lead = +27
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
Headline voting intention: Constituency voting trend
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
55%SNP
November 2020
22%Conservative
14%Labour
6%Liberal Democrat
1%Green
Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Fieldwork dates: 2nd-9th October and 20th-26th November 2020
5855
19 22
13 148 61 10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct 20 Nov 20
How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
Headline voting intention: List voting trend
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
47%SNP
November 2020
22%Conservative
16%Labour
7%Green
6%Liberal Democrat
Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Fieldwork dates: 2nd-9th October and 20th-26th November 2020
47 47
19 22
13 16
8 69 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct 20 Nov 20
How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 7
VIEWS ON INDEPENDENCE
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Support for independence
If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland's constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question:Should Scotland be an independent country?
53%41%
6%Yes
No
Undecided
All likely to vote
56%
44%
Yes
No
All likely to vote and expressing a voting
intention
Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ who are 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote in a Scottish independence referendum (913); All
Scottish adults 16+ who are 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote in a Scottish independence referendum and expressing a voting
intention (857) , 20-26 November 2020
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
Support for independence: change over time
February 2013 – November 2020
44%No
56%Yes
Base: c.1,000 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave. Based on all likely to vote, excluding undecideds/don’t knows
9
If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in
response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
41%
79%
25%
21%
21%
33%
79%
All
Current Yes voters
Current No voters
1-2 3-8 9-10
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Strength of opinion on independence and staying part of the UK
On a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ and 10
means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ what number would you consider yourself
to be?
Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ (1006), 20-26 November 2020
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 11
VIEWS ON BREXIT
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
Attitude towards Brexit
Some people are worried about Brexit, while others see it as a new opportunity. How do you feel about the impact of Brexit? Would you say you feel …
9%
14%
20%
22%
32%
Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ (1006), 20-26 November 2020
3%
3%Don’t know
9%Very optimistic
14%Fairly optimistic
22%Fairly pessimistic
32%Very pessimistic
20%Neither optimistic nor pessimistic
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Holyrood 2021 Election Tracker | November 2020 | Public
PARTY TRUSTACROSS POLICY AREAS
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
75%
74%
66%
65%
59%
59%
22%
23%
31%
30%
38%
38%
Standing up for Scotland’s interests
Responding to the Coronavirus crisisin Scotland
Managing the NHS in Scotland
Tackling inequality in Scotland
Managing Scotland’s economy
Managing education and schools inScotland
Trust in the SNP
14
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
How much, if at all, would you say you trust the Scottish National Party to deal effectively with ...
NET TRUST
+53
+51
+35
+35
+21
+21
Base: 1006 Scottish adults aged 16+, 20-26 November 2020
Great deal/ quite a lot Not very much/ not at all(%)
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
33%
32%
31%
30%
29%
26%
61%
63%
63%
66%
65%
68%
Managing education and schools inScotland
Managing Scotland’s economy
Responding to the Coronavirus crisisin Scotland
Standing up for Scotland’s interests
Managing the NHS in Scotland
Tackling inequality in Scotland
Trust in the Scottish Conservative Party
15
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
How much, if at all, would you say you trust the Scottish Conservative Party to deal effectively with ...
Base: 1006 Scottish adults aged 16+, 20-26 November 2020
Great deal/ quite a lot Not very much/ not at all(%)
NET TRUST
-28
-31
-32
-36
-36
-42
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© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public
42%
42%
40%
36%
34%
31%
51%
52%
52%
58%
57%
64%
Tackling inequality in Scotland
Managing the NHS in Scotland
Managing education and schools inScotland
Standing up for Scotland’s interests
Responding to the Coronavirus crisisin Scotland
Managing Scotland’s economy
Trust in the Scottish Labour Party
16
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
How much, if at all, would you say you trust the Scottish Labour Party to deal effectively with ...
NET TRUST
-9
-10
-12
-22
-23
-33
Base: 1006 Scottish adults aged 16+, 20-26 November 2020
Great deal/ quite a lot Not very much/ not at all(%)
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Technical note
Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of
1,006 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were
conducted by telephone: 20 – 26 November 2020. Data are
weighted by age, sex, region, social grade, working status,
tenure, education and country of birth to match the profile of
the population.
Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to
computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories,
or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less
than half a per cent.
Questions are asked of the total sample of n=1,006 unless
otherwise stated.
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Ipsos MORIScottish Political Monitor 2020
For more information
Emily Gray
Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
Rachel Ormston
Research Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
Catriona Millar
Research Executive, Ipsos MORI Scotland