Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2017 Charts · PDF fileBase: c.1,000 British adults each...

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORIPOLITICALMONITOROctober

2017

3Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it

depends vote in General Elections = 809. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2

38%

40%

9%

4%

3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

37%

39%

11%

5%

3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Jul 04

Jan

05

Jul 05

Jan

06

Jul 06

Jan

07

Jul 07

Jan

08

Jul 08

Jan

09

Jul 09

Jan

10

Jul 10

Jan

11

Jul 11

Jan

12

Jul 12

Jan

13

Jul 13

Jan

14

Jul 14

Jan

15

Jul 15

Jan

16

Jul 16

Jan

17

Jul 17

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – October ‘17

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

30%

59%

11%

37%

53%

11%

42%

45%

14%

Jeremy Corbyn The Government

+0.5%swing from September

2017

0%swing from September

2017

-3%swing from September

2017

+0.5%swing from September

2017

-16 Net -3 Net -7 Net -29 Net

SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 45% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 59%

26%

33%

42%

Vince Cable


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER

/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Oct 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

MAY CORBYN CABLE

37%

42%

26%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2017)

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017)

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Hague (97-01) Ducan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)

Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)

Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 27th October – 1st November 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

37%

53%

11%

October 2017 August 2016 – October 2017

SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 53%

DON’T KNOW 11%

Net = -16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 356 Conservative supporters 18+ , 27th October – 1st November 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

72%

23%

5%

October 2017

SATISFIED 72%

DISSATISFIED 23%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +49

August 2016 – October 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


42%

45%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 45%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = -3

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 27th October – 1st November 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

October 2017 September 2015 – October 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


71%

21%

8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

SATISFIED 71%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +50

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 349 Labour supporters 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

October 2017 September 2015 – October 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public

26%

33%

42%

SATISFIED 26%

DISSATISFIED 33%

DON’T KNOW 42%

Net = -7

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Vince Cable (satisfaction)

October 2017

Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


19%

24%51%

6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

May-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep

-07

Dec-

07

Feb

-08

Ap

r-08

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-117

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

rl-1

6Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

IMPROVE 19%

STAY THE SAME 24%

GET WORSE 51%

DON’T KNOW 6%

EOI = -32

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017

Economic Optimism Index

October 2017


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism has been on downward trend since

2014

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

No

v 1

997

Mar

1998

Jul 1998

No

v 1

998

Mar

1999

Jul 1999

No

v 1

999

Mar

2000

Jul 2000

No

v 2

000

Mar

2001

Jul 2001

No

v 2

001

Mar

2002

Jul 2002

No

v 2

002

Mar

2003

Jul 2003

No

v 2

003

Mar

2004

Jul 2004

No

v 2

004

Mar

2005

Jul 2005

No

v 2

005

Mar

2006

Jul 2006

No

v 2

006

Mar

2007

Jul 2007

No

v 2

007

Mar

2008

Jul 2008

No

v 2

008

Mar

2009

Jul 2009

No

v 2

009

Mar

2010

Jul 2010

No

v 2

010

Mar

2011

Jul 2011

No

v 2

011

Mar

2012

Jul 2012

No

v 2

012

Mar

2013

Jul 2013

No

v 2

013

Mar

2014

Jul 2014

No

v 2

014

Mar

2015

Jul 2015

No

v 2

015

Mar

2016

Jul 2016

No

v 2

016

Mar

2017

Jul 2017

-32


Brexit


NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER

OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


Impact of Brexit on people’s standard of living

18

21

24

18

20

46

39

24

40

41

29

36

49

37

36

7

4

4

5

4

BETTER

MAKES NO

DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW

May ‘16

July ‘16

Oct ‘17

Oct ‘16

March ‘17

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month


DO YOU THINK THAT THERESA MAY HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT

FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION


GOOD JOB BAD JOB

32

35

49

51

55

55

40

35

Oct-17

Jul-17

Mar-17

Dec-16

Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month


PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR

BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?

Base: 1,071 British adults 18+, 14th – 18th July 2017

Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain

5%

6%

11%

5%

35%

30%

33%

29%

4

3

5

4

31%

31%

28%

35%

29%

29%

23%

27%

Theresa May October 2017

Theresa May July 2017

Theresa May March 2017

(David Cameron February 2016)

VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL



45%

44%

49%

49%

39%

42%

41%

37%

AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE

EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO

THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER

IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c1,000 British adults each month

Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of

immigration in its future relationship with the EU?

BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE

EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION

Jan 2017

Oct 2016

Jul 2017

Oct 2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information

and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

24

Ipsos MORIOctober 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2017 Charts · PDF fileBase: c.1,000 British adults each...

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