IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 2 - Energy Security

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IONS Seminar, Perth

THE PROBLEM OF ENERGY SECURITYIN THE INDIAN OCEAN

26.03.2014

School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts

Dr Alexey D MuravievHead, Department of Social Sciences & International Studies

Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs

Founder & Director, Strategic Flashlight forum


Major Considerations


51 IOR states - coastal and land lockedThe total area is 101.6 million sq km

68.56 million sq km (IO)

Total population is approximately 2.6 billion (39 % of the world’s population)

Some 146 ongoing conflicts23 high intensity

Key considerationsContinuous regional insecurity

External players interests and multifaceted power projection

IOR’s growing strategic role in world oil/gas production and transportation

26.03.2014


Major Considerations


High value strategic transit routeHigh value strategic transit routeConnecting the Middle East, Africa, Connecting the Middle East, Africa, Southeast and East Asia with Europe and Southeast and East Asia with Europe and AmericasAmericas

Principal Principal ‘‘choke pointschoke points’’Suez CanalSuez CanalStrait Bab el MandebStrait Bab el Mandeb

Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaStrait of Malacca

Heavy oil traffic from the Persian Gulf to Heavy oil traffic from the Persian Gulf to East AsiaEast Asia

An estimated 40 per cent of the An estimated 40 per cent of the worldworld’’s offshore oil production is s offshore oil production is

from from the IOthe IO

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Global energy communityGlobal energy dependent community (14 states)

India, Singapore (OIR)

Global energy supply family (19 states)

Australia, Indonesia, Iran, UAE (plus Arabian/Persian Gulf states)

Strategic energy corridor50 - 70% of oil production is shipped by tankers via IO

80% of shipped oil passes through three ‘chock points’

Offshore oil platform, the Bay of Bengal.

A tanker passes through the Suez Canal

The Energy Vector

School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014


Exploration and extraction operations in the IO littoral

The Arabian/Persian Gulf vector

The African vector

Discoveries of considerable deposits of oil and gas in Kenya, Somalia, Mozambique, Tanzania

The South and Southeast Asian vector

Offshore activities in the Bay of Bengal, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore

The Australian vector

Western Australia

Close proximity to clientele in Asia

The Energy Vector



The Energy Vector

The Malacca Strait - 15 mln bbl/dThe Hormuz Strait - 17 mln bbl/d

Strait Bab al-Mandab - 3 mln bbl/d

Over 40 mln barrels daily (bbl/d)Very large crude carriers (VLCCs)

Extra large crude carriers (ELCCs)

2 mln bbl on every voyage

Two thirds of crude oil is shipped by

tankers



Opportunities & Challenges

Naval force modernisation/capability enhancement

Indian naval power

Nuclearisation of IOR

Maritimised organised crime

Piracy and armed robbery at sea

Arms, other illicit cargo smuggling

Human trafficking and poaching

Maritime terrorism

Effective border and EEZ policing and protection

1/3 of Australia’s 8.5 sq mln nm EEZ is in IOR

Energy security



Opportunities v Challenges


South Asia4.43 The Indian Ocean will have greater strategic significance in the period to 2030. It will become an increasingly important global trading thoroughfare, particularly for energy supplies between Asia and the Middle East. Over time... the Indian Ocean is likely to host a larger military (particularly naval) presence. A number of major naval powers are likely to increasingly compete for strategic advantage in this crucial maritime region. Over the period to 2030, the Indian Ocean will join the Pacific Ocean in terms of its centrality to our maritime strategy and defence planning.

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South Asian Security Challenges


South Asia (DWP 2009)4.42 The prospect of miscalculation between India and Pakistan leading to conflict and, in the worst case, massive escalation, remains of significant concern.

South Asia (DWP 2013)2.62 A large-scale India-Pakistan conflict cannot be ruled out. Neither side seeks conflict, but events such as an attack on India attributable to Pakistan-based terrorist groups, like the 2008 Mumbai attack, could trigger conflict between these two nuclear-armed states.


The Factor of Maritime Terrorism


Around 29 March 2004, Al-Qaeda released a new targeting guidance “The Targets Inside the Cities”

7th ed. of the Camp al-Battar MagazineFaith (religious) targetsEconomic targetsHuman targets

Economic targetsWestern and Jewish economic targets in the Arabic worldInternational companies, consultants and expertsWestern investments and developments in the Arabic worldNatural resource-carriersJewish businessmen



The Factor of Violent Activism

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The Prirazlomnaya offshore facility, 18 September 2013



IO as an area of growing prominence for the energy sector

Considerable opportunities for onshore/offshore exploration

Immediate risks posed by organised crime

Low level terrorism risks

Risks to offshore facilities (PMV)

Agenda-driven NGOs

In Conclusion…

Longer term security risks

Escalation of instability within MESC and SASC post-2014

The evolving international threat environment The evolving international threat environment may present a different threat context five-ten may present a different threat context five-ten years from now…years from now…


Thank you…



QUESTIONS?26.03.2014


The Problem of Energy Security in the IO

Dr Alexey D MuravievPhone: (+61 8) 9266 2234Email: [email protected]

IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 2 - Energy Security

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Transcript of IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 2 - Energy Security