Climate change and sea-level rise:seaports, security and stresses

Jean Palutikof

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

(with thanks to RMIT University – Jane Mullett and Darryn McEvoy for information on their Seaports project)

NCCARF: who we are, what we do

• Set up by the Federal Government in 2008 to provide decision makers with the knowledge and capacity to effectively respond to climate change impacts

• Based at Griffith University, Gold Coast• About to embark on a second phase, with

an emphasis on working with local governments in the coastal zone

What is the IPCC?• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change• Set up by the UN to provide climate

information to underpin negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions reduction

• Assesses the science on a cycle of around 5-6 yrs – Fifth Assessment currently being completed

• An elaborate process leads to government ‘accepting’ scientific assessments

Seaports, security and stresses

Five messages:

First human-induced climate change

Second sea levels – what’s happening

Third impacts in Australia: seaports

Fourth impacts overseas: security

Fifth: climate change and other stresses

1. The climate is changing and will continue to change

Climatic Research Unit, UEA

Atmospheric warming is almost everywhere we have records, greatest over continents

Has warming stopped since 1998?• World Ocean Heat Content 1955-2010 [Levitus, 2013]

The ocean accounts for ~90% of heat absorbed by the Earth 1955-2012 (1022 J) Levitus, 2013

Climate change will continue into the future

2. Global sea level is rising and will continue to rise

The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (IPCC WGI AR5)

Future sea-level riseGlobal mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, and

at a faster rate than observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice

sheets.

Figure takes into account thermal expansion, glacier and ice sheet melting (Greenland & Antarctica)IPCC WGI AR5

Regional sea-level change by end 21st century

Causes: Changes in wind and air pressure Air-sea heat and freshwater fluxesOcean currentsMovements of the land and sea floorChanges in gravity

Other oceanic effects• Ocean acidification

– Affects calcification amongst shell-forming species

• Ocean warming• Wind-wave conditions in the open ocean• Storm surge and flood in the coastal zone

– Rule of thumb: • 0.1m rise in sea level increases the frequency of flooding

by approximately a factor of 3• The effect is multiplicative• Increase of 0.5m will increase the frequency of flooding by

a factor of approximately 300; 1:100 year event will occur several times a yearACE CRC (2012) Report Card: Sea-Level Rise 2012 p19

www.ipcc.ch Chapter 13 WGI

3. Impacts in Australia will be mainly from extreme events

A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events. IPCC SREX 2012• Heatwaves –number, duration, intensity will increase -

impacts on outdoor work conditions (high confidence) • Drought in southern Australia• Increased flood events• Possibility that cyclone tracks will move further south

2009 heatwave SE Australia Port of Melbourne tarmac melted2010 - 2011 floods Queensland

Gladstone Ports coal supply interrupted Port of Brisbane shut

2011 flash flooding NSW Port Botany operations interrupted

Observed impacts on seaports:

Enhancing the resilience of seaports to a changing climate project

RMIT University©2013 16www.nccarf.edu.au

RMIT University©2013

Gladstone• Bulk

- Coal- Liquids- Minerals

Sydney• Containers• Liquids• Mixed trade

Port Kembla• Mixed

-Agriculture- Liquids-Containers- Vehicles (RO/RO)

17

Port case studies

Integrated climate risk assessmenthybrid vulnerability / risk management approach

Ports: key messages• Ports need to work in partnership with other logistics providers and

local/state/national governments • Government regulation is necessary to support the process

(public/private mix of actors)• Communication of the climate science is still an issue, apart from

sea level rise which is well understood• Collection and analysis of data is important• There are many current opportunities to build in incremental

adaptation, but transformational adaptation is still a bridge too far.• Low probability-high impact climate risks need to be investigated

further• Just-in-time management leaves no room to move – pressure on

productivity gains at a time when there is an increase in dangerous weather situations

• Short term versus the long term (room to move)• Best practice builds adaptive capacity

19Pasha Bulker cargo ship off Newcastle

Source: The Age, 9/6/07Photo: Darren Pateman

4. The main impacts for Australia will come from what happens overseas

• Australia is a rich, well-educated democratic society with high adaptive capacity

• There are three areas where what happens elsewhere will have impacts– Trade – Security– Aid

Trade: Global food trade and food

prices are impacted by climate • Why does it matter for Australia?

– Three-quarters of Australia’s agricultural production is exported in non-drought years

– Australia may benefit if other food producers experience adverse climate change

– Conversely, it may be faced by rising global prices and diminishing national supply

– Security implications – inflation in food prices triggered +60 riots worldwide 2007-9

Global wheat prices [www.indexmundi.cpm]

Close relationship with El Niño eventsOften a forecast of an El Niño is sufficient to cause prices to rise

Good news: nations have learned to maintain adequate stocks of grain, acting as a damper on prices – adaptation can and does occur

1996: Drought in US Mid-West, pessimistic forecasts, high global demand

2008: Widespread global drought, hike in oil prices

2010: Drought in Russia and ban on exports

Security and migration• Large-scale migration now

a permanent feature in developing nations:– rural to urban, – to neighbouring countries, – into Europe, North America

and Australasia

• Climate change and SLR can exacerbate this trend– Small low-lying islands– Persistent extremes:

drought, flood

• Does climate change have the potential to cause conflict and war?

Sub-Saharan Africa remittances

5. At present, the greatest risks are from climate change acting together with, or exacerbating, other stresses

• War• Poor and corrupt governments and institutions• Societies weakened by poverty, ill-health and

out-migration

Without these stresses, societies have the capacity and will to manage climate change

An exception is small low-lying island states where sea-level rise exceeds capacity to adapt. More exceptions will emerge.

In conclusion – the five messages

1. The climate is changing and will continue to change

2. Global sea level is rising and will continue to rise

3. Seaports: Impacts in Australia will be mainly from extreme events

4. Security: The main impacts for Australia will come from what happens overseas

5. Stresses: At present, the greatest risks are from climate change acting together with, or exacerbating, other stresses