Investor Presentation... · Hizmete Özel/ Confidential 30.7 81.2 67.0 55.4 31.8 20 26 32 38 44 50...
Transcript of Investor Presentation... · Hizmete Özel/ Confidential 30.7 81.2 67.0 55.4 31.8 20 26 32 38 44 50...
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Investor Presentation
April 2020
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in
underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 2
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Refining Market
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
30.7
81.2
67.0
55.4
31.8
20
26
32
38
44
50
56
62
68
74
80
86
Brent Crude Prices
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 4Refining Market
$/bbl
+ Impact of Iran & Venezuela sanctions+ Escalating regional tension
- Disagreement between OPEC and Russia- Concerns on global economic development- Coronavirus related demand drop
2016 ave.43.7 $/bbl
2017 ave.54.3 $/bbl
2018 ave.71.0 $/bbl
2019 ave.64.3 $/bbl
All waivers expired on Iran
OPEC Production Cut Decision
Iran Sanctions
DroneAttack toSaudi Fields
data as of 31 Mar 2020
OPEC+ disagreement
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Global Refinery Capacity Changes
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 5Refining Market
Expectations until 2024:
• ~80% of net capacity additions will come from Asia & Middle East
• Net capacity and demand in Europe will remain roughly unchanged
2.10
0.98
1.68
0.49
1.30
-0.95
0.22
-1.41
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
China
India
Middle East
Other Asia
Other
Japan
N. America
Europe
2012-2018 Net Capacity Additions by Region
2.0
0.9
1.71.3
0.9
0.2
1.97
0.89
1.93 1.96
1.50
0.51
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2019-2024 Net Capacity Additions
Asia & Middle East Other Total
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Middle Distillate Cracks
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 6Refining Market
14.9
16.2
15.0
12.2
12.9
11.4
14.1
16.216.6
17.9
13.9
11.311.2
10.1
12.5
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Diesel
5yr range 2019 2020 5 yr ave
14.4 13.8
13.2
10.3
10.9 11.2
14.8
16.4
17.0 17.4
12.5
9.3
10.4
7.9
5.8
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jet Fuel
5yr range 5 yr ave 2019 2020
5 yr between 2015-2019, data as of 31 Mar 2020
$/bbl
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 7Refining Market
$/bbl
7.7
9.8
3.3
1.72.9
9.0
12.1
10.09.4
14.7
12.010.6
11.0
9.9
4.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gasoline
5yr range 2020 2019 5 yr ave
-22.4
-15.8
-8.4-7.0
-5.0 -5.5
-8.6
-11.3-9.8
-6.9
-13.4-16.9
-22.5
-31.6-32.9
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
High Sulphur Fuel Oil
5yr range 2020 2019 5 yr ave
5 yr between 2015-2019, data as of 31 Mar 2020
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2Q
1 2
016
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q4
20
19
ArabHeavy
BasrahHeavy
Kirkuk
Kuwait
Ural
¹Average
Crude Price Differentials to Brent
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 8Refining Market
¹Simple average of listed differentials
•Iran Sanctions
•Venezuela Sanctions
•OPEC+ cut decision and over-compliance
•Druzhba contamination
•Drone attack to Saudi fields
Supply Shocks on Heavy Crude
A total of ~4 mbd is missing from heavy crude pool since December
2018, leading to price increases and narrowing differentials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Market
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Consumption 2015-2018
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 10Turkish Market
Source: Tüpraş and EMRA ¹Bunker excluded
20.60
22.30
24.2023.60
2015 2016 2017 2018
DieselMillionTons
+8.5%
+8.5%
-2.4%
4.58
4.404.52
4.99
2015 2016 2017 2018
Jet Fuel
+10.4%
+2.7%-3.9%
2.10
2.23
2.302.34
2015 2016 2017 2018
Gasoline
+1.8%
+3.1%
+6.5%
0.6 0.58
0.49
0.39
2015 2016 2017 2018
Fuel Oil¹
-20.1%
-15.7%
-3.5%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Market, 12M 2019
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 11Turkish Market
Diesel demand contraction in H1 has been mostly off set in H2. Aviation driven jet demand has been healthy.
0.39 0.40
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2018 2019
²Fuel Oil
2.34 2.42
1
2
3
2018 2019
Gasoline
4.99 5.31
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2018 2019
¹Jet Fuel
25.01 24.90
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2018 2019
DieselMillionTons
¹Transit flight consumption included²Bunker excluded
-0.4%+6.5%
+0.5%+3.2%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
1.62 1.78
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2018 2019
Diesel
+9.8%
Turkish Market, 1M 2020
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 12Turkish Market
Diesel demand recovery since H2 2019 continued while Jet beginning the year with a decline in 1M 2020.
0.06 0.040.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2018 2019
²Fuel Oil
0.17 0.180.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2018 2019
Gasoline
0.35 0.330.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2018 2019
¹Jet FuelMillionTons
¹Transit flight consumption included²Bunker excluded
-33.3%+6.6%
-5.2%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkey’s Net Import / Export Balance
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 13Turkish Market
-3.4
2.8
-12.3
0.1
-3.0
3.0
-8.7
0.3
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Jet
2016 2017 2018 2019
Export
Import
MillionTons
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Company Overview
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Domestic Ownership
22%
Foreign Ownership
78%
Tüpraş Shareholder Structure
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 15Company Overview
¹As of December 31th,2019
Koç Holding77%
Aygaz20%
Opet3%
Ditaş79.98%
Opet40%
Körfez Ulaştırma100%
Free Float49%
Tüpraş is Turkey’s biggest industrial company and leading refiner.
Energy Investments Inc. (SPV)51%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş’s Refining Assets & Distribution Network
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 16Company Overview
İzmit
• 11.3 MT Capacity• NC: 14.5• Storage Capacity: 3.0 mn m3
İzmir
• 11.9 MT Capacity• NC: 7.66• Storage Capacity:2.5 mn m3
Kırıkkale
• 5.4 MT Capacity• NC: 6.32• Storage Capacity: 1.3 mn m3
Batman
• 1.4 MT Capacity• NC: 1.83• Storage Capacity:0.3 mn m3
Turkey‘s Storage Capacity
Tüpraş & Opet
57%
Others 43%
Railway
Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
+ Tüpraş supplies ~55%
of Turkey’s petroleum
product needs
+ Tüpraş benefits from
an integrated system
optimization with its
high complexity,
procurement and
logistics flexibility
Total Capacity
30 mntons
Nelson Complexity
9.5
Tüpraş Storage Cap.
7 mnm3
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 17Company Overview
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Subsidiaries
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 18Company Overview
OPET, Distribution, Tüpraş Share: 40%
• 1,670 stations as of 31 December 2019• As of November 2019 Market share: 19.0% in white products; 35.6% in
black products
DİTAŞ, Marine Transport, Tüpraş Share: 79.98%
• 3 Crude Oil Tanker: 479,765 DWT• 1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker: 51,532 DWT• 10 Product Tanker: 171,453 DWT“
Körfez Ulaştırma, Railway Transport, Tüpraş Share: 100%
• ~7% share in Turkish rail freight market• ~1.8 mn ton of product and semi-product carried in 2019.• Operates with 10 diesel locomotives and over 600 cistern wagons
Tüpraş Trading UK, Trading, Tüpraş Share: 100%
• Trading Office in London will be an important step into wider integration with the global energy landscape by allowing to:
Closely monitor international market opportunities Support import and export operations Create additional value from supply chain and sales activities
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Operations
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
6 610
2 2 3
12
3 3 1 0 0
12 13 1310 10 10
2 0
17 1511
14 14
7
14
34
65 6763
7176
7981
55
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Africa America Europe CIS Middle East
Main Crude Suppliers in 2019
Crude Suppliers of Tüpraş
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 20
In 2019, Tüpraş purchased 15 different types of crude from 8 countries with gravities ranging between 20-47 API.
Operations
Crude Oil Imports by Region (%)
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Annual Product Yields
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 21Operations
LPG3%
Gasoline20%
Naphtha1%
Jet19%
Gasoil33%
Fuel Oil7%
Kok3%
Asphalt12%
Other2%
LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil
Fuel Oil Kok Asphalt Other
Light Distil.25%
Mid. Distil.52%
Black Prod.21%
Other white
2%
2018
White Product Yield (%) 77.4%
Production 25.7 mn tons
API 31.0
LPG4%
Gasoline20%
Naphtha1%
Jet17%
Gasoil36%
Fuel Oil9%
Kok3%
Asphalt8%
Other2%
LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil
Fuel Oil Kok Asphalt Other
Light Distil.25%
Mid. Distil.53%
Black Prod.20%
Other White
2%
2019
White Product Yield (%) 79.0%
Production 28.1 mn tons
API 32.0
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
5.2
6.2
7.7
6.66.76.9
7.5
6.9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarterly Production (Million Tons)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
98
10
1
10
1
87 91
89 91 96
87
4 4 7
9 7 4 59
9
103 105 108
96 9894 96
105
96
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Capacity Utilization (%)
Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total
Capacity Utilization1 (%)Quarterly Production
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation
22
¹Capacity utilization calculation is based on 30 mn tons for Q1 2019 and onwards.
Total production volume in Q4 2019 realized as 6.9 mn tons.
Full year capacity utilization for 2019 was 97.8%, in line with our guidance.
Operations
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Sales
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation
23
• Tüpraş generated 29.2 million tons of total sales 2019.
Operations
Distributors46%
THY Opet5%
Jet9%
LPG3%
Other6%
Export23%
Bitumen6%
Military2%
22.2 24.8 25.7 25.622.4
6.55.5 5.8 4.2
6.8
28.7 30.3 31.5 29.8 29.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Exports
Domestic Sales
9.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 10.4
4.84.5 4.5 4.9
4.32.0
2.2 2.2 2.22.3
2.93.4 3.5 2.9
1.8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bitumen
Gasoline
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Total Sales
Domestic Sales of Key Products
Customer Groups 2019mn tons
mn tons
Sales to Distributors
2019
13.3 mn tons
Total Sales, 2019
29.2 mn tons
POAŞ27%
OPET31%
SHELL19%
BP13%
OTHER10%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Key FinancialsFinancials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Refining Margin
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 25
Tüpraş’ Net Refining Margin in 2019 was 2.0 $/bbl higher than Med Complex margin (1.7 $/bbl).
2.53.2
6.56.0
8.1
9.3
3.7
1.71.9
4.84.0
5.34.6
1.7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tüpraş Net Margin Mediterranean
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers’ refining margin due to:
• Ability to use heavier and sour crudes with higher
complexity
• Access to a wide range of cheaper sources of crude
oil
• Close proximity to major suppliers reduces
transport costs
• Lower cost basis and more efficient energy usage
• Ability to produce a broad range of refined products
with higher value added
• Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
5.5
2.0 2.91.2
4.2
1.7 2.0
4.8 4.05.4 4.6
1.7
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Med Complex
Month Annual
Financials
$/bbl
$/bbl
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş and Med Refining Margins
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 26Financials
($/bbl)Gross
MarginInventory
EffectClean Gross
MarginClean NET
MarginNet
MarginMed Margin
2019 Q4 9.7 0.7 9.0 2.9 3.6 -1.9
2019 12M 9.2 0.1 9.1 3.6 3.7 1.7
2018 Q4 10.8 -4.0 14.9 9.0 5.0 4.7
2018 12M 14.7 0.8 13.9 8.5 9.3 4.6
6.5 6.0
8.1
9.3
3.7
5.3
3.6
5.8
4.5
1.7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/bbl
12M Margins
Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Income Statement
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation
27
*On CMB reports. EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation. FX related items are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices.
Financials
Tüpraş generated 738 MTL EBITDA in Q4 2019.
Million TLQ4 Q4
%FY FY
%2019 2018 2019 2018
Net Sales 21,631 24,803 -13 89,601 88,552 1
COGS -20,566 -22,778 -10 -84,716 -79,328 7
Gross Profit 1,065 2,025 -47 4,884 9,224 -47
Operating Expenses -540 -438 23 -1,783 -1,307 36
Income/Loss from other operations -464 1,591 -871 -2,181
Operating Profit 61 3,178 -98 2,230 5,736 -61
Income/Loss from equity investment 25 72 -66 197 257 -23
Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 86 3,249 -97 2,427 5,993 -59
Financial Income /Expense -525 -1,600 -2,739 -2,268
Profit Before Tax -439 1,649 -311 3,724
Net Profit (excluding minority interest) 186 1,766 -89 526 3,713 -86
EBITDA *(mn.TL) 738 1,887 -61% 4,039 8,908 -55
Inventory Gain/Loss -89 -297 194 2,653
EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 827 2,185 3,845 6,255
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Financial Highlights
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 28
Tüpraş recorded 4,039 MTL EBITDA in 2019.
1) Excluding minority interest 2) Calculation based on rolling net income
Financials
Mn TL Mn TL
367335
1,575 1,033 8511,080 688
1,542 2,2101,4951,144
867
1,528
3,778
9561,2081,505
1,237
1,887
738
3,799 3,396
5,882
8,908
4,039
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EBITDAQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4
275 79869
378-375
710331
1,457
1,027870
750
581
992
542
-155
815
803
493
1,766
186
2,550
1,793
3,812 3,713
526
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Income¹
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1.8 1.8
1.11.3
2.1
1.0 1.1 1.21.3
1.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current Ratio & Net Debt / R. EBITDA
Net Debt / R. EBITDA Current Ratio
35%
22%
41%37%
5%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Return on Average Equity²
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Balance Sheet Analysis
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 29
Strong balance sheet maintained despite weaker operational profitability
Proactive Financial Management
• Deleveraging continues despite operational headwinds
• Dynamic liquidity management ensures optimal cash and receivables management
Billion TL Billion TL
Billion TL
Financials
0.8
-0.2
2.1
4.7
1.6
-0.7
-2.3-3.6
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Working Capital Requirement
6.96.1 6.2
12.010.6 10.1
8.7 8.4
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Net Debt
5.26.0
1.6 1.6
4.6
0.2
1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Over 5 years
Redemption Schedule
Loan Eurobond TL bond
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Q4 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019)
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 30
Decline in Profit Before Tax was driven by weaker crack margins, narrower differentials and FX loss.
Million TL
Financials
Inventory
FX
+208
-921
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Annual Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019)
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 31
2019 PBT was lower mainly due to narrow differentials, weaker crack margins and natural gas price hikes.
Million TL
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Dividend (TL)
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 32
3.2 2.9
5.05.8
4.85.8
10.2
7.2
15.2 14.8
2.12.5 3.03.9 3.9
1.6
6.5 6.2
13.615.2
0.0
77%
101%
79%
66%
33%
0%
64%
87%89%
102%
0%
0%
40%
80%
120%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Dividend Payout
Financials
(*) 2019 dividend payment decision was announced on Feb 12, 2020 and is subject to approval at AGM.
(*)
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Investments (Million $)
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 33
274355
400
186 177
628
974
1213
959
344
213 185138 157
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ongoing Projects
• Revamp of Crude Units
• FCC Modernization
• New Sulphur Units
• Energy Saving Projects
• Optimization of conversion
units
• 6.5 bn USD investments since privatization
• Reached 9.5 Nelson Complexity
• Capability to process heavier and more sour crude
Avg. 278 Mn$
Avg. 943 Mn$
Avg. 220 Mn$
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
12M 2019 Results
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 34Financials
3.7
1.7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
12
M
Refining Margins ($/bbl)
Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin97.8% total capacity utilization in 2019
28.1 29.228 30
Production Sales
Operationals12M 2019 Target
29.2 mn tons of sales and 28.1 m tons of production in 2019
157 150
12M 2019 Target
Capex (mn $)
157 mn$ refining CAPEX in 2019
97.8
0 20 40 60 80 100
12M
Capacity Utilization (%)
3.7 $/bbl net refining margin in 2019
Med FY Exp
Tüpraş FY Target
2.8
-3.1-5.3
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Med Margin ($/bbl)
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 35Financials
31.12.2019 31.12.2018 Diff. Diff. (%)Current Assets 27,919 20,962 6,957 33
Cash & C. Equivalents 10,652 5,983 4,669 78
Trade Receivables 4,788 5,429 -641 -12
Derivatives 304 176 128 73
Inventories 9,469 6,765 2,704 40
Pre-paid expenses 237 109 128 118
Other Current Assets 2,470 2,502 -32 -1
Long Term Assets 27,593 19,074 8,519 45
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 1,363 1,271 92 7
Fixed Assets 20,587 12,397 8,190 66
Derivatives 99 168 -70 -41
Pre-paid expenses 199 378 -179 -47
Deferred Tax 3,768 3,566 201 6
Other Long Term Assets 1,578 1,293 285 22
Total Assets 55,512 40,036 15,476 39Short Term Liabilities 28,120 15,950 12,171 76
Financial Loans 5,178 4,113 1,064 26
Trade Payables 17,816 7,496 10,320 138
Derivatives 79 236 -157 -66
Provisions 117 80 37 46
Other ST Liabilities 4,930 4,024 906 23
Long Term Liabilities 14,255 14,140 114 1
Financial Loans 13,898 13,836 62 0
Payables & Provisions 316 257 59 23
Derivatives 32 42 -10 -24
Other LT Liabilities 9 5 4 89
Total equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 12,963 9,825 3,138 32
Minority Interests 174 121 53 43
Total Liabilities & Equity 55,512 40,036 15,476 39
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Foreign Currency Long Term
Tüpraş BB- (Stable) B1 (Negative)
Türkiye BB- (Stable) B1 (Negative) B+ (Stable)
Koç Holding B1 (Negative) BB- (Stable)
Leading Corporate Governance Score
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 36
92.6
99.5
95.3
95.5
95.0
0 25 50 75 100
Board
Stakeholders
Transparency
Shareholders
Overall
Tüpraş BIST Corporate Governance Rating Score
Source: Bloomberg
45%
44%
11%
Buy
Hold
Sell
Analyst Recommendations
Credit Rating Scores
Source: SAHA Corporate Governance and Rating Services Inc. (October 2019)
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Proactive in liquidity risk management & targets/limits for financial ratios:
• Net financial debt/EBITDA
• Net financial debt/Equity
Financial Policy
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Inestor Presentation 37
Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, commodity, interest rate and currency exposure.
Leverage & Liquidity
• Current ratio
• Share of long term debt
Deposit is kept within bank-based limits:
• Credit rating assessment and strong capital base.
• Cap on the maximum deposit allocated to a single bank.
• Threshold for deposits subject to banks shareholders’ equity.
Counterparty Risk Policy
• The fixed/floating profile of financial debt.
• Proactive management of FX risk with derivative instruments
• Zero FX exposure target.
Interest Rate & Fx
Inventory Hedging Policy:• Operational hedge: Optimum stock policy & forward pricing mechanism.• Financial hedge: Expected inventory exposure for the year end is hedged by using derivatives.• Hedging ratio increasing throughout the year.
Crack Margin Hedging Policy:• Financial hedge: Crack margin (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil) risk mitigation by using derivatives.• Hedge ratio between %0-%50 with up to 1 year hedge tenor
CommodityHedging
Policy
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
FX Exposure Management (31 December 2019)
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 38
Consolidated Hard Currency Assets
Consolidated Hard Currency Liabilities
* Cash flow hedge accounting : 813 mn $
• A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and refined
product purchases are denominated in US Dollars. In
addition, the Group finances its capital expenditures
mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars.
• Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of
the impact of volatility in exchange rates through
natural hedges: crude oil and refined product
inventories are US Dollar denominated assets.
• Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans
designated as hedging instruments of highly probable
export revenues.
• As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group
companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange
positions within certain limits.
Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX policies to mitigate currency risks stemming from volatility.
Financials
Cash
202
Forward & CFH2,740
Stock1,537
Receivables & Other Assets
84
Payables2,114
ST Financial Loans792
• RUP: 191• Other: 602
LT Financial Loans1,687
• RUP: 707• Eurobond: 700• Other Loans: 280
-30 mn $
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 40Appendix
Refinery Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Status
Batman Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1-Q2 5
İzmir
U-100 Crude Q1 6*
U-4000 FCC Q4 6
U-9200 CCR Q1 & Q4 3 & 7
U-9600 Isomerization Q4 8
U-9900 MQD Q4 7
İzmit Plt-6 Desulphurizer Q4 4
Kırıkkale
* This activity had started in Q4-19. Duration figure indicates the portion carried out in 2020
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
2020 Expectations
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 41Appendix
• Ural-Brent differential widening compared to 2019
• Weak outlook for HSFO
Med Complex Refining Margin 1.5-2.5 $/bbl
• IMO driven growth in mid-distillate cracks
• Gasoline cracks remain flat, HSFO to remain weak
• Heavy Crude Differentials to widen
• ~28 mt production, ~29mt sales and 95 - 100% capacity utilization
Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 4.5-5.5 $/bbl
• Sulphur treatment units, improvement in storage units
Refining Capex 200 million $
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Competition - STAR Refinery
www.tupras.com.tr 42Apr-20Investor Presentation
• Feasibility studies began in 2010 and construction kicked off in 2011
• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13% stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.
• Total investment size 6.3 bn USD, with 3.3 bn USD credit agreement.
• Following the completion of construction late 2018, reached full capacity utilization in August 2019
Turkish Market Structure (mn tons)Timeline
Turkey Demand
Tüpraş STAR TotalTurkishMarket
DemandBalance
LPG 1.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 -2.7
Petchem F. 0.2 2.6 2.8
Gasoline 6.1 6.1 2.4 3.7
Jet Fuel 5.2 1.6 6.8 5.2 1.6
Diesel 10.7 4.5 15.2 26.5 -11.3
Fuel Oil 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5
Bitumen 3.1 3.1 3.1
Pet coke 0.8 0.7 1.5 4.6 -3.1
Total ~30 ~10 ~40
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Competition - Regional Competition
www.tupras.com.tr 43Apr-20Investor Presentation
• Tüpraş competes with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets.• Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia flows
17 Refineries ~1.8mbd
Mediterranean Black Sea
54 Refineries ~7.8mbd
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
IMO 2020: Changes in Bunker Specification and Its Effects
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 44
Current compliant fuels
Cu
rren
t O
utl
oo
kB
eyo
nd
20
20
Demand shift beyond 2020
HSFO replacement expectations
Long term outlook for marine fuels
• Marine Gasoil (Diesel): Easiest solution as it is already available
• Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO): Either through FCC with sweet crudes or by blending
• Scrubbers: As of 28/02/20, ~3.4K vessels are either fitted or scheduled to be fitted and ~0.6K vessels are on order book to be delivered with scrubbers
• LNG: requires significant investments at ports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Compliant HSFO Non-compliant HSFO VLSFO MGO LNG
• VLSFO is the initial choice, followed by MGO• Fuel choice might change through the years as
availability & compatibility issues get resolved• Compliant HSFO use grows as scrubber numbers rise
from ~2K after Jan 1st, 2020 (some ports started bans on open-loop scrubbers thus this projection might change)
Source: Market Reports
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Production Flow and Yield Breakdown
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 45
• Tüpraş has 30 million tons of production capacity
• Tüpraş operates 4 refineries with an integrated system optimization program
Appendix
Key Units# of
UnitsCapacity(m3/d)
CRUDE OIL 8 99,420
VACUUM DIST. 8 42,752
HYDROCRACKER 4 18,032
ISOMERATION 3 7,804
UNIFINER REFORMER
5 16,225
KERO/DIESEL (HDS)
9 37,265
FCC 2 4,650
COKER 1 9000
NAPHTASPLITTER
8
LPG MEROX 6
Flow Diagram
LPG MEROX
NAPHTHASPLITTER
ISOMER.
VACUUMDIST.
UNIFINERREFORMER
KERO/DIESEL (HDS)
FCC
HYDROCRACKER
COKER
Bitumen
Lube Oil
FCCGasolineHDS
BenzenSaturation
Multiple distillation
and production
units
Other, 3.8%
Bitumen & Fuel Oil, 19.9%
Lube Oil, 0.5%
Diesel,
33.9%
Jet Fueloil, 16.5%
GasolineNaphtha,
22.0%
LPG, 3.5%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
RUP Feedstock and Production
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 46
• Residuum Upgrade Plant (RUP) was completed in 2015 and it is the main conversion unit of Tüpraş.
• First periodic maintenance was completed in Q2 2019.
Total Output ~4.25mn tonsTotal Processing ~4.50 mn tons
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
European Pump Price Comparison
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 47
2.833.93
2.373.02
3.562.79
3.722.73
0.70
0.00
0.870.54
0.000.96
0.000.95
3.45
4.55 5.696.14 5.86
6.15 6.64 6.60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
TR Spa. Ger UK Eu19 Fra. Gre. Ita.
Gasoline (TL/Lt)
Refinery Price Dist. Margin Tax
3.174.10
2.893.94
4.52
3.02 3.05 3.18
0.760.00
0.910.00
0.00
0.92 0.80 0.73
2.58
3.85 4.374.78
4.49 5.55 5.756.21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
TR Spa. Ger. EU19 Gre. Fra. Ita. UK
Diesel (TL/Lt)
Refinery Price Dist. Margin Tax
European prices as of 16th December - Turkeys prices as of 24th December 2019
Turkish fuel prices are highly competitive with other European countries.
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş - ESG - Over a Decade of Dedication
www.tupras.com.trApr-20Investor Presentation 48Appendix
Tüpraş kicked off its sustainability
program back in 2008 and achieved
many milestones in a decade
~480 energy efficiency
projects leading to
~35,000 TJ saving and
2.4 mt CO2 reduction
31%increase in solid waste recovery
20 points drop in Energy
Intensity
36% decrease in fresh
water usage
~205 MTL donations and sponsorships
75% increase in female
employee numbers
~1mn workhours dedicated to
OHS training
+1.3 points increase in Corporate
Governance rating
17% female representation in senior and mid-level
management
See our Sustainability Report for details
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş - ESG - 2018 Achievements
www.tupras.com.tr 49
• Kırıkkale Refinery won the first place, İzmit Refinery the second and Batman Refinery the third in the Industrial Energy Efficiency Project Competition.
• İzmit Refinery won the first prize in the Sustainable Business Awards - Water Management Category.
• Achieved 69.5% water recycle ratio
• Achieved 88.6% solid waste recovery
Environmental Responsibility
• Signed agreement to supportHeForShe (Global cooperation with UN Women and FenerbahçeSports Club)
• 62% of ex-crude procurement activities were conducted through local businesses.
Social Support
• 9.50 Corporate Governance Rating
• 13% Female Representation at the Board,
• 17% Female Representation in Upper and Mid-Level Management.
Governance Excellence
AppendixApr-20Investor Presentation
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Koç Holding
www.tupras.com.tr 50
• Koç Holding is Turkey’s largest industrial and services group in terms of revenues, exports, employees, taxes paid and market capitalization
• The only Turkish company in Fortuna 5001.• 20% CAGR in consolidated profit2 the last five years
Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company
• Leading positions with clear competitive advantages in sectors with long-term growth potential such as energy, automotive, consumer durables and finance.
Pioneer in its Sectors
8%
Combined Revenues /
GDP
10%
Total Exports / Turkey’s Exports
16%
Total Market Cap in Borsa
Istanbul
Notes : Data as of YE18, 2018 GDP reflects the projection of Turkish government’s New Economic Program.(1) 2018 Report(2) In TL terms between 2014-18
AppendixApr-20Investor Presentation
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Investor Presentation
Latest Webcast
Sustainability Report
contact us: [email protected]