Investor Presentation - DEVEX Conference · 2020. 12. 3. · Solan – first oil achieved, moving...

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Investor Presentation May 2016

Transcript of Investor Presentation - DEVEX Conference · 2020. 12. 3. · Solan – first oil achieved, moving...

  • Investor Presentation

    May 2016

  • Forward-looking statements

    This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that both represents management's current expectations or beliefs concerning future

    events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

    A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

    May 2016 | P1

  • Executive Summary

  • Acquisition of E.ON’s UK North Sea assets completed On-going asset disposals

    2016 – progress against targets

    On track to deliver at or above upper end of FY guidance of 65-70 kboepd 88% operating efficiency in Q1

    Opex tracking 10-20% below budget; expected FY opex of c. $17/boe Gross G&A on track to deliver 10% reduction on 2015 (ex E.ON)

    Solan on-stream 12 April, >14 kboepd tested from P1 P2 expected on-stream by mid-year

    Pre-first oil capex 15% lower at $1.35 bn; first oil on schedule for 2017 FPSO delivery to Singapore by July; targeting subsea work completion by Q4

    Net debt of $2.68 bn at end April; 2016 capex spend front-end loaded Expect to be cash flow positive at oil prices above c. $50/boe in Q4

    Discussions ongoing with lenders to secure financial covenant waiver if required

    May 2016 | P3

    Maximise production

    Further cost reductions

    Solan on plateau (20-25 kboepd)

    Progress Catcher

    Focus on net debt

    Manage covenant headroom

    Refocusing the portfolio

  • Focus on Advantaged Assets

    • UK, SE Asia, Falklands • Disposal of non-core assets • Appropriate balance of current cash flow,

    development projects and longer-term upside

    Looking forward

    Strategy

    Accelerate Debt Reduction • Take necessary corporate actions to

    minimise net investment in 2016 (as in 2015)

    • 2017 will see de-leveraging at the current forward curve

    Continue Focus on Cost Base • Further opex and G&A savings in 2016 • Current and future capex spend

    reductions

    Financial Position

    200

    300

    400

    500

    FY 2014(actual)

    2015Budget

    FY 2015(actual)

    2016Budget

    Solan, Huntington

    100

    200

    300

    400

    FY 2014(actual)

    2015Budget

    FY 2015(actual)

    2016Budget

    G&A ($mm)

    Opex ($mm)

    May 2016 | P4

  • Looking forward

    Proven Track Record in Acquisitions/Divestment • 6 separate transactions since 2013, focused on

    pre-development assets • E.ON portfolio added 70 mmboe at cost of

  • Asset update

  • Summary of asset upsides

    UK – Premier • Upside in Huntington and Solan • Elgin-Franklin producing above budget • Opex and capex savings in Catcher

    project • Potential reserve upgrade at Catcher • Targeting substantial cost reductions • Potential disposal strategies

    Q1 2016 production 18 kboepd Q1 2016 opex $30/bbl

    VIETNAM • Infill programme targeting

    18 kboepd (2018) • Seeking further cost reductions • FPSO lease restructuring

    Q1 2016 production 17 kboepd Q1 2016 opex $7/bbl

    INDONESIA • Ongoing developments (BIGP, Tuna, Lama) • Seeking further cost reductions • Increasing market share over time (→60%) • Synergies with Block B

    Q1 2016 production 14 kboepd Q1 2016 opex $9/bbl GSA1 market share 44%

    PAKISTAN • Ongoing infill drilling • Sale process underway

    2016 Q1 production 8 kboepd 2016 Q1 opex $3/bbl

    FALKLAND ISLANDS • Targeting savings to reach 20%

    IRR at $55/bbl • Seeking long term partner(s) • Mature phase 2 and 3 concepts

    Sea Lion: current economics

    20% IRR at $65/bbl

    EXPLORATION • Plan for 2018 drilling

    programmes

    Mature Mexico and Brazil (Ceara Basin) drilling targets

    May 2016 | P7

  • Pakistan (8.3 kboepd) • Well-established gas

    producing fields • Generates positive, stable

    cash flows • Formal sales process

    ongoing

    0

    5

    10

    15

    2015 Q1 2016

    Current production – high operating efficiency

    Indonesia (14.0 kboepd) • Singapore demand above

    take or pay • GSA1 share 44%; above

    contractual share of 40.9%

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2015 Q1 2016

    Vietnam (17.4 kboepd) • Delivering ahead of

    expectations • High operating efficiency • Better than predicted

    reservoir performance

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2015 Q1 2016

    Group •Maintained high

    operating efficiency •E.ON delivered

    17 kboepd in Q1 •New production

    from Solan

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    2015 Q1 2016

    FY GUIDANCE

    Expect to be at /above

    65 – 70 kboepd

    North Sea (17.6 kboepd) • 99% OE and lower decline from

    Huntington • Unplanned shutdown on B Block • Solan on-stream April • E.ON production consolidated

    from 28 April

    05

    10152025

    2015 Q1 2016

    OE 90%

    OE 88%

    OE 83%

    Production (kboepd) Production (kboepd)

    Production (kboepd)

    Production (kboepd)

    OE 70%

    OE 87%

    OE 96%

    OE 93%

    OE 90% OE

    95% OE

    95%

    May 2016 | P8

    Solan + E.ON

  • UK – production growth

    • Averaged 17.6 kboepd in Q1 2016

    • Group production growth driven by UK: E.ON assets, new Solan production and Catcher

    • Continue to target substantial cost savings; opportunity to generate operating and cost synergies

    • UK long life assets include Elgin-Franklin, Wytch Farm & Catcher

    • $3.5 bn of UK tax losses and allowances and c. $550 m of Investment Allowances

    May 2016| P9

    Babbage

    Balmoral Area Solan

    Wytch Farm

    Kyle Huntington

    Elgin Franklin

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Group BaseProduction

    Solan 20-25 kboepd

    E.ON 12-17 kboepd

    Catcher 20-25 kboepd

  • South East Asia – reliable low cost production

    Vietnam

    • Strong Q1 2016 production and operating efficiency

    – 32.8 kboepd (gross) production

    – 96% operating efficiency

    • Progressing further cost reductions

    • Planning f0r future infill programme targeting unswept areas and low risk new reservoirs

    Indonesia

    • High operating efficiency and robust demand maintained production levels

    – Market share exceeded contract

    – Will increase as other suppliers decline

    • Longer term, Indonesia (Batam) and Singapore are both seeking additional volumes

    • Planning further developments to increase production beyond 2018

    – Bison, Iguana, Gajah Puteri

    – Lama exploitation

    – Tuna

    2015 operating

    costs c.$13/bbl

    2015 operating

    costs c. $8/bbl

    May 2016 | P10

  • Solan – first oil achieved, moving on to second oil

    • P1 on-stream 12 April

    – rates of 8 kbopd achieved from natural flow, rising to 14 kbopd with ESP

    • Planned shut down ahead of second oil

    – W2 tied in

    – Final commissioning of water injection plant underway

    – ESP completion for P2 being installed with tie-in planned for early June

    • Utilise Superior Flotel to maximise workforce on platform to complete remaining systems

    • Re-start production and ramp up to plateau rates of 20-25 kbopd

    Plateau production

    by Q3 of 20-25 kbopd

    May 2016 | P11

  • Catcher – under budget and scheduled for 2017

    Subsea

    • 2015 subsea installation programme completed; 2016 programme underway

    – Remaining templates installed

    – Installation of bundles and riser system in progress

    – Buoy and Mooring system to be installed over the summer

    STB Buoy Underside of STB Buoy

    15% lower pre-first oil

    capex at $1.35 bn

    Launching Catcher trailing towhead

    Catcher towhead, Wick

    May 2016 | P12

  • Catcher – under budget and scheduled for 2017

    FPSO

    • Hull fabrication accelerating in Japan and Korea

    • Topsides and Turret fabrication advanced in ProFab, Dynamac and Asia Offshore yards

    • Commencement of hull and integration work in Singapore from Summer 2016

    Stern Terra Block; Japan

    Aerial View of Catcher Modules; Singapore

    May 2016 | P13

    Fore Terra Block, Korea

  • • Ensco 100 rig on hire since July 2015

    • 4 wells drilled with excellent operational performance

    – two injectors (CTI1 and CCI2)

    – Two producers (CCP3 and CTP1)

    • Pre-drill predictions for reservoir depth, thickness and extent confirmed

    • Reservoir quality and flow rates met or exceeded expectations

    • Injector well tests demonstrated water injection capability into the field

    • 4 further development wells planned for 2016

    Catcher – initial drilling results encouraging

    Well results confirm

    high quality reservoir

    Catcher CCP3 producer well

    Catcher exploration well 29-1

    Cromarty reservoir

    0 500ft

    May 2016 | P14

  • Final Investment Decision Timing

    Will remain dependent on:

    • Achieving attractive rates of return

    • The outlook for long term oil prices

    • The level of cost reductions secured

    • Premier’s ability to fund project – without risking the balance sheet

    Sea Lion complex – low cost option for large future value

    • Phase 1 project economics enhanced

    – 220 mmbbls from NE & NW areas of PL032

    – 18 wells (13 pre-drilled) and 20 year field life

    – $1.8 bn capex to first oil unchanged (costs down 30%)

    • Conceptual design work completed

    • Draft FDP submitted to FIG for comment

    • Completed SPA amendment with RKH

    • Phase 1 FEED is progressing cautiously

    • Anticipate securing further cost reductions

    • Looking to bring in additional upstream partner

    Enhanced project

    economics

    Falling break-even

    price

    Subsea Installation

    Subsea Prod’n System

    Risers

    FPSO

    “Collaborative partnership”

    “Collective costs incentives”

    May 2016 | P15

  • North Falklands Basin – potential confirmed

    Successful exploration programme now complete

    • Zebedee discovery proves up additional resource to northern North Falklands Basin development

    – Adds c. 60 mmbls resource to Sea Lion Phase 2

    • Isobel Complex potential confirmed

    – Potential for >480m oil column

    – Multiple additional oil-bearing sands

    • Programme curtailed due to rig performance issues

    • Further appraisal concurrent with Sea Lion development

    Sea Lion complex

    520 mmbls; 2 phases

    N Isobel Deep Geobody

    Isobel Complex de-risked

    May 2016 | P16

  • Finance

  • Strong cash flows despite lower oil prices

    12 months to 31 Dec

    2015 $m

    12 months to 31 Dec

    2014 $m

    Working Interest production (kboepd) 57.6 63.6

    Entitlement production (kboepd) 53.4 57.8

    Realised oil price (US$/bbl) - post hedge 79.0 101.0

    Realised gas price (US$/mcf) - post hedge 6.5 8.4

    $m $m

    Cash flow from operations 903 1,133

    Taxation (94) (209)

    Operating cash flow 809 924

    Capital expenditure (1,070) (1,514)

    Disposals 220 131

    Finance and other charges, net (101) (120)

    Dividends - (44)

    Share buy back - (93)

    Net cash in (out) flow (142) (716)

    Net Debt (2,242) (2,122)

    Capital expenditure ($m) Comprises proceeds from the sale of Block A Aceh and Norway and a positive adjustment from Scott area disposal Liquids hedging (incl E.ON)

    2016 2017

    Barrels hedged (mmbbls)

    5.53 1.53

    Average price ($/bbl)

    67.0 45.8

    2015 2016E

    Exploration $216 c$100

    Development $854 c$630

    Total $1,070 c$730

    May 2016 | P18

  • 12 months to 31 Dec 2015

    $m

    12 months to 31 Dec 2014

    $m

    Sales and other operating revenues 1,099 1,629

    Cost of Sales (661) (987)

    Impairments (1,024) (784)

    Gross profit/(loss) (586) (142)

    Exploration/New Business (109) (84)

    General and administration costs (14) (25)

    Disposals 1 3

    Operating profit/(loss) (708) (248)

    Financial items (122) (136)

    Profit/(loss) before taxation (830) (384)

    Tax credit/(charge) (241) 174

    Profit/(loss) after taxation (1,071) (210)

    Income statement

    Operating costs ($/boe)

    Exploration write offs include Badada well in Kenya and uncommercial Bonneville discovery in UK

    2014 2015 2016

    UK $37.2 $30.0 $27

    Indonesia $10.0 $10.0 $11

    Pakistan $3.3 $3.7 $5

    Vietnam $14.6 $11.7 $13

    Group $18.5 $15.5 c$16-17

    EBITDAX 752 1,074

    $3.5 bn of UK tax losses and allowances

    May 2016 | P19

  • 200

    300

    400

    500

    FY 2014(actual)

    2015Budget

    FY 2015(actual)

    2016Budget

    Solan, Huntington

    More than 250 further initiatives identified targeting savings of > $50m p.a

    Cost reduction continuing

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

    Committed capex profile ($mm)

    P&D Capex

    Exploration

    Opex ($mm)

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    FY 2014(actual)

    2015Budget

    FY 2015(actual)

    2016Budget

    G&A ($mm)

    • Contractor rate cuts • Contract renegotiations • G&A headcount

    reductions of c20% • Discretionary capex/opex

    cuts • Operating efficiencies • Lower cyclical costs

    (fuel/insurance etc.)

    • Further contractor rate cuts

    • Additional contract renegotiations

    – FPSOs – Logistics

    • Collaboration with other operators

    • Phasing of capex payments with suppliers

    Initial Cost Reductions 2014/15 Further Actions

    2016+

    2015 Opex down 25% G&A down 25% 2016

    Opex down 10-20% G&A down 10%

    May 2016 | P20

  • Covenant compliance and mitigating actions

    • E.ON UK asset acquisition materially covenant accretive

    4.

    • Covenant position amended – Net debt $2.2 billion (YE 2015) – Headroom > $900m (YE 2015) – Strong support from banks & bondholders

    1.

    • Key focus on compliance in low oil price environment

    – Tested half yearly at 30 June and 31 Dec – Likely to require relaxation of covenants if

    low oil price persists

    2.

    • Mitigating actions – Capex phasing, pre-paid oil sales, further

    cost reductions, sale and leaseback, asset disposals

    3.

    Financing structure

    • Corporate unsecured • No reserve base

    determinations • No amortisations

    Liquidity • $1.2 bn cash & undrawn facilities at year end 2015

    • No maturities until end 2017

    Cost of debt

    • 60% fixed interest rate • Average debt costs of 3.5%

    in 2015

    307 362

    1468

    558

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    Drawn debt maturities (US$mm)

    May 2016 | P21

  • End 2015 2P reserves and resources

    Falklands Indonesia Mauritania Pakistan UK Vietnam Total

    2P

    On Production – 35.2 0.1 12.6 22.8 23.8 94.5

    Approved for Development

    – 12.7 – – 87.4 0.1 100.2

    Justified for Development

    136.0 1.1 – – – – 137.1

    Total Reserves 136.0 49.0 0.1 12.6 110.2 24.0 331.9

    2C

    Development Pending

    – – – – – – –

    Development Unclarified / on hold

    134.4 98.3 – 7.2 17.6 11.2 268.7

    Development not viable

    126.7 1.8 – – 21.3 7.2 157.0

    Total Contingent Resources

    261.1 100.1 – 7.2 38.9 18.4 425.7

    Total Reserves + Contingent Resources

    397.1 149.1 0.1 19.8 149.1 42.4 757.6

    May 2016 | P22

  • Appendix

  • Rationale for the E.ON acquisition

    • Strengthens Premier’s position in UK North Sea with its associated tax benefits; opportunity to generate operating and cost synergies

    • Continues Premier’s track record of capturing long term value through acquisition at low points in the oil price cycle

    • Adds stable UK gas revenues to the portfolio; rebalancing commodity exposure

    • Adds high quality assets at a compelling valuation with a valuable hedging position in 2016 and 2017

    – Assets acquired at $1.6/boe based on CPR estimate of 2P reserves vs. UK North Sea average of $13/boe (since 2000)

    – CPR values the net asset value of 2P reserves and SNS infrastructure at $494 million (pre-tax) vs. purchase consideration of $120m

    • Adds immediate cash generative production, tax synergies and material covenant accretion with rapid payback – meeting Premier’s stated acquisition criteria

    Total 73 kboepd

    Proforma 2015 Production

    ProformaYE15 Reserves

    Elgin-Franklin area

    Huntington

    Other CNS

    Tolmount

    Babbage area

    Premier

    Total 402 mmboe

    Elgin-Franklin area

    Huntington

    Other CNS

    Babbage area

    Other SNS

    Premier

    May 2016 | P24

  • Huntington (38.5%, op.) • Existing Premier field, equity interest

    increases to 100% • 2.5mmboe net reserves1 • 2016 ytd production: 5.2 kboepd (net),

    in line with 2015

    E.ON UK assets – strong start to 2016

    Tolmount (50%, op.) • c.30 mmboe (169 Bscf) net reserves1 • Est. resources 200 Bcf – 1Tcf (gross) • Est. peak production 150-200 mmcfd

    (gross) • 2017 investment decision, first gas

    2019/2020 • Further discoveries and prospects

    Babbage (47%, op.) • Adds gas production to Premier • 19 Bscf (3.2mmboe) net reserves1 • 2016 ytd production: 3.4 kboepd (net)

    in line with 2015 • Plans to operate unmanned

    Elgin Franklin Area (5.2% non-op.) • 34.6 mmboe net reserves1

    • 2016 ytd production: 5.3 kboepd (net), 14% up on 2015

    • Current production rates expected for next 3 years

    • Development drilling through to 2019, 7 new wells, capex (net) £50m

    • Low opex of $8/boe in 2016

    Significant gas

    discovery

    Opportunity to reduce costs

    and enhance production

    World class asset with long-term production

    In-field and near-field

    growth opportunity

    2016 YTD Production

    Total 17.2

    kboepd 1. as per effective date 1.1.2015

    1. as per effective date 1.1.2015

    Elgin-Franklin area

    Huntington

    Other CNS

    Babbage area

    Other SNS

    May 2016 | P25

  • • Acquired with a valuable hedging portfolio in 2016 and 2017 – 2016: 32% estimated gas production @ 63p/therm, 33% estimated liquids production

    @ $97/bbl – 2017: 21% estimated gas production @ 57p/therm

    • Significant benefit to covenants (Net Debt to EBITDAX) at 30 June 2016 and 31 Dec 2016

    • Expected payback of around 2 years, sooner if potential disposal of assets

    • Sharing of liabilites with seller on Ravenspurn North & Johnston • c.£250m of historic tax paid off-settable against future decommissioning

    expenditure

    Quick pay back

    • Adds significant cash flow in 2016 and 2017 even at current oil/gas prices – c.15mboepd of net production and associated cash flow added on completion – YTD production ahead of forecast

    Strong cash flow

    Valuable hedging portfolio

    Covenant accretive

    Financial benefits of the E.ON acquisition

    Abandon- ment

    liabilities mitigated

    May 2016 | P26

  • Premier Oil Plc 23 Lower Belgrave Street London SW1W 0NR Tel: +44 (0)20 7730 1111 Fax: +44 (0)20 7730 4696 Email: [email protected]

    www.premier-oil.com

    May 2016