Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO...

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September 2017 Two gas projects to nearly triple gas production by Dec 2018(1) (1) From 85 230 MMcf/d, or 2.7x

Transcript of Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO...

Page 1: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

September 2017

Two gas projects to nearlytriple gas production by Dec 2018(1)

(1) From 85 → 230 MMcf/d, or 2.7x

Page 2: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

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Forward Looking Statements

This presentation may include certain forward looking statements. All statementsother than statements of historical fact, included herein, including, withoutlimitation, statements regarding future plans and objectives of Canacol EnergyLtd. (“Canacol” or the “Corporation”), are forward‐looking statements thatinvolve various risks, assumptions, estimates, and uncertainties. These statementsreflect the current internal projections, expectations or beliefs of Canacol and arebased on information currently available to the Corporation. There can be noassurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results andfuture events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.All of the forward looking statements contained in this presentation are qualifiedby these cautionary statements and the risk factors described above.Furthermore, all such statements are made as of the date this presentation isgiven and Canacol assumes no obligation to update or revise these statements.

Barrels of Oil EquivalentBarrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated using the conversion factor of 5.7 Mcf(thousand cubic feet) of natural gas being equivalent to one barrel of oil. Boesmay be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 5.7Mcf:1 bbl (barrel) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarilyapplicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at thewellhead.

Production and ReservesProduction represents net before royaltyReserves represent 2P reserves and before tax NPV‐10 as of December 31, 2016

USDAll dollar amounts are shown in US dollars, unless indicated otherwise

Ecuador

140 280 420 560

Km

S. Pacific Ocean

Natural Gas

Colombia

20 blocks /2.2 MM net acres

Light oil

Light oil

Shale oil

Shale oil

2

Heavy oil

Gas deficit

Page 3: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

• ‘17 corporate production guidance• ↑ gas production 85 → 130 MMcf/d (Dec ’17 exit)• Fully funded capex $89 MM• Production 18‐19k boepd

% gas 81%

• ‘18 gas production guidance• ↑ gas production 130 → 230 MMcf/d (Dec ’18 exit)(1) Includes in‐the‐money options based on CDN $4.04 / share price 

~140 MM shares in the float(2) Converted from CDN → USD exchange rate (0.825) as of 9/12/17(3) As of 6/30/17

FOCUS: The Path To ~$300 MM EBITDA

In MM, except CDN $/share amounts

TSX $/share (9/12/17) CDN $4.04

Fully diluted shares outstanding(1) 177

Market capitalization(2) US $590

Net debt(3) $230

Enterprise value US $820

Insider ownership 22%

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TSX: CNE | BVC: CNE.C

Page 4: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Strong Track Record Of Asset OptimizationAdded 314 BCF in 2P reserves over the trailing 3‐yrs.

• A conventional gas success story

• Recent 2P NPV‐10 $1.2 B(2)

• Gas exploration success 8/9 wells (89%)• 1P / 2P reserve    166% /                                    

replacement 194% y/y• Avg. F&D cost $0.44 / MCF(3)

• The lowest cost gas operator always wins

In US dollars unless otherwise noted(1) Represents before tax corporate total (oil + natural gas) 2P reserves value as of 12/31/16(2) Represents before tax natural gas only 2P reserves value as of 12/31/16(3) Average over the trailing 2‐yr. period

35

43

17  20 

65 72 

7  8  11 18 

18 23 

14 13

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

7985

+52% CAGR in 2P reserves 

Gas

In MMboe(1)oil         gas

4

For the 3 months ended 6/30/17

$ / MCF % marginNatural gas revenues $       4.96 Royalties $    (0.64) 13%Production expenses $    (0.36) 7%Operating netback $      3.96  80%

85% gas

Oil

Page 5: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Caribbean Sea

ChuchupaBallena

Canacol gas blocksGas pipeline‘17 pipeline‘18 pipeline

La Creciente

Cartagena

Barranquilla

Jobo facility

SabanasPipeline Co.

+40 MMcf/d130 MMcf/d

Dec ‘17

• $40 MM pipeline; announced $30 MM private financing 

• In Aug ‘17, build 6‐in. pipeline Jobo→Sincelejo

• Twin Jobo→ Sincelejo pipeline

• Construct new pipeline Cartagena→Barranquilla 

+100 MMcf/d230 MMcf/d

Dec ‘18

Filadelfia

Paiva

Caracoli

Compressor10 kmGas field

Reficar

1

2

5

Two Gas Projects To Nearly Triple Gas Production By Dec ‘18

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8 gas fields5 blocks1.1 MM net acres

Page 6: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Lower Magdalena                       Basin

6

ChuchupaBallena

La Creciente

477432

381

337299

265

25 7585 138

230230

0

200

400

600

'15 ' 16 ' 17E ' 18E ' 19E '20E

3 mature producing fieldsChuchupa, Ballena, & La Creciente

Excess demand

Caribbean Sea

Canacol’s Sweet SpotReplacing Chevron’s gas supply to the Caribbean

• Gas demand +3%/yr. through 2025e(1)

supply ‐20%/yr. decline ongoing            or ‐100 MMcf/d(2)

• Excess demand ~70 MMcf/d avg. → ‘20e

(1)Source: Wood Mackenzie and UPME Colombia estimates(2) Average annual decline for the trailing 3 years

Page 7: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

X

Nelson

Esperanza

VIM 5SSJN7

VIM 19

Sincelejo

Oboe

Trombon

VIM 21

Palmer

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(1) As of Dec ‘16 reserve reports, net of ~50 BCF produced(2) Gaffney, Cline & Associates (“GCA”)prospective conventional natural gas resource 

report, effective Dec ‘16(3) Expected Monetary Value discounted at 10%, GCA Dec ‘16

LegendGas field   Prospects / leads  Facilities                 Existing pipelineSabanas planned pipeline (12/1/17)Promigas planned pipeline (12/1/18)

20 km

Strong base production and reserves 3 acquisitions ('12‐'14) 96 BCFTrailing 3‐yr. 2P reserve adds 314 BCFRecent 2p reserves 410 BCF(1)

Gas exploration success 8/9 wells (89%)Producing wells 14

Large resource upsideNet acres 1.1 MMBlocks 5Gross mean unrisked resources 2 TCF (2)

BT EMV‐10 US $789 MM(3)

Prospects / leads 44

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• Canacol Gas

2

Canahuate

Jobo ’17 Cañandonga‐1

’17 Pandereta‐1

’17 Gaitero‐1

A Conventional Natural Gas Success Story3 exploration wells left for 2017

Clarinete

Nispero

Toronja

Bremen

Page 8: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

AVO Reduces Exploration RiskDiscovered 314 BCF from 8 gas fields over the trailing 3‐yrs.

2.5 KM

PANDERETA‐1

OBOE‐1FEB ‘16

CLARINETE‐1Dec ‘14

ACORDEON‐1

Tubara Marker

Lower Tubara

Mid Miocene / Top CDO

Upper CDO

Mid CDO

Basal CDO

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2.400

PANDERETA‐1

• Applying AVO technology to gas‐charged sandstones• Exploration success 8‐for‐9 (89%)• Avg. net pay/well 78 ft. TVD• Avg. test rate/well 33 MMcf/d• Producers 14 wells

• >2 TCF of running room(1)

The hunt for repeatable anomalies

AVO extraction over the Mid CDO

Fluid Factor (AVO) section(1) Represents gross unrisked mean resources from the 

Gaffney, Cline & Associates prospective gas resource report, effective Dec ‘16

CLARINETE‐1

8

Page 9: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Drilling For Repeatable Anomalies In The PorqueroJun ’17: Toronja‐1 exploration well tested 46 MMcf/d

NELSON‐5

NELSON‐4

NELSON‐3

NELSON‐8PALMER‐1

2

1

Mid Porquero time structure

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2.000

2,200

2.400

Basement

Intra Porquero

Top CDO

Fluid Factor (AVO) section1KM

• Tested 46 MMcf/d • Exploration target Porquero reservoir sandstones • Well cost 41% below budget

• Work underway to tie Toronja into Jobo (3 kms)• Porosity 20%

NELSON‐2

PORQUERO

21

NELSON‐6Nov ‘16

TORONJA‐1Jun ‘17

Esperanza

SSJN7VIM 5

VIM 21

VIM 19

9

Page 10: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Toronja‐1 Suggests Much More In Store For The Porquero

• Nov ’16  Nelson‐6 spelled opportunity• Net pay  39 ft. TVD• Tested 23 MMcf/d

• Dec ‘16  Nelson‐5 Porquero recompletion ↑ confidence • Net pay  79 ft. TVD• Tested 13 MMcf/d

• Jun ‘17  Toronja‐1 says more running room…• Tested 46 MMcf/d

• Aranadala‐1, Breva‐1, Carambolo‐1 offer 3 follow‐up exploration locations

TORONJA‐1

BREVA‐1

ARANDALA‐1

CARAMBOLO‐1

1 KM

AVO extraction over                                                                            Mid Porquero SST marker

NELSON‐5

NELSON‐6

Nelson‐5, Nelson‐6 added 25 Bcffrom the Porquero Formation(1)

SSJN7VIM 5

VIM 21

VIM 19

Esperanza

10(1) Represents 2P reserves as of Dec ‘16 reserve report 

Page 11: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Pandereta‐1 Exploration Target

• Estimated spud October 2017• Exploration target Cienaga de Oro reservoir sandstones • Drill & test / Depth  $5.5 MM / ~9k ft. MD• Days to drill/test 5 weeks

• 13 km from Clarinete discovery• On success, rapid tie‐in to 6” flow‐line                     

connecting Clarinete to Jobo

1KMFluid Factor (AVO) section

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

SSJN7VIM 5

VIM 21

VIM 19

Esperanza

11

21

Basement

Top Basal

Top Red

Top Blue

Mid Miocene / Top CDO

Lower Tubara Marker

Tubara Marker

2KM

1

2

Mid CDO time structure

Pandereta‐1

Pandereta‐1

Page 12: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

NELSON‐5

NELSON‐4

NELSON‐3

NELSON‐2

Cañandonga‐1 Exploration Well | 3 Potential Pay Zones

4 km(1) Includes Arianna and Palmer fields 

(not pictured on map)

Nelson Field193 BCF

• On strong structural trend• Canacol fields 240 BCF(1)

• Nelson, Nispero & Trombon

• Formerly producing fields 378 BCF• Castor, Sucre, Tablon

• Cañandonga‐1 spud Nov 2017• Fault dependent closure• Stacked multi‐zone objectives                             

(CDO, Porquero, Tubara)• AVO‐supported new play in Tubara sandstones• Drill & test / Depth  $5.5 MM / ~10k ft. MD

Jobo Station

Sucre

Sucre S

Castor N

Tablon

Castor   SFlow line

NISPERO‐1

TROMBON‐1

Cañandonga‐1

12

Page 13: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Aim To Deliver 230 MMcf/d By 2018 ExitOnly 3 wells or $18 MM to maintain 230 MMcf/d

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• 85 MMcf/d today• Today ‐ 13 gas wells producing  85 MMcf/d

• Wells choked back

• Potential ‐ 13 gas wells producing  130 MMcf/d

• To 130 MMcf/d to exit 2017• Drill 2 more wells ~$12 MM

• Debottleneck gathering systems $5 MM

• Additional flowlines $12 MM

• To 230 MMcf/d to exit 2018• Drill 5‐7 wells ~$30 ‐ $42 MM

• +50 MMcf/d of processing capacity ~$10 ‐ $15 MM

• Additional flowlines $10 ‐ $12 MM

Construction of the new Sabanas pipeline project, Sep 2017

Page 14: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Spend ~$40 MM To +40 MMcf/d in Dec ‘17→ 130 → 230 MMcf/d in Dec ‘18

Jobo Station

La Union Station

San Luis Station

Sincelejo

Bremen Station

20 m

VIM 19

SSJN 7

VIM 21

Esperanza

VIM 5

Prom

igas

14

• Building 84 km Sabanas pipeline +                     2 compressor stations• ~42 MMcf/d  flow line capacity to Bremen

• Utilizing state‐of‐the‐art flexible steel pipe

• Flex pipe requires no welding and optimal                construction (2km of pipe/day)

• IN PROGRESS ‐ deployment of flowline + civil works for compressor station sites 

• $40.6 MM budget

Caribbean Sea

Pipeline  $12.4 

EPC pipeline  $11.8Customs & transport$6.8 

Envrionmental & social $4.2 

Other $4.4 

Page 15: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

+49% CAGR in gas productionMMcf/d

Outlook85 → 130 → 230 MMcf/d

70 85 

130 

230 

60

100

140

180

220

'16 '17 '17 exit '18 exit

forecast

'16 '19e

$135

~$300

Substantial liquidity enables executionUS $ in MM

2Q ‘17 net debt $230 MM‘19e ebitda ~$300 MM

• Senior secured term loan• Credit Suisse + syndicate / L+5.50%• No re‐determination if oil prices fall• Mar ’19 →Mar ’22 ~$22 MM of principal

payments for 13                           consecutive quarters

• For the remainder of 2017e:• Drill 3 more gas exploration wells• Completion of Sabanas flow line

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Page 16: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

• > 2.3 trillion oil barrels in S.A. has La Luna source rock• Source: 2010 Journal of Petroleum Geology  

• 1.7 M acres of La Luna fairway in Colombia• Source: 2013 U.S. EIA study • Canacol blocks 5• Gross / net acres 625k / 371k

• Canacol’s VMM 2 and VMM 3 offer over pressured, Tier 1 acreage in the La Luna fairway

• Gross/net acres 159k / 32k• Operating partner ConocoPhillips• Solid results from multiple fracs in the latest well (Pico Plata)

• Potential prize: 1.9 B barrels of net mean OOIP(1)

• Source: DeGolyer & McNaughton unconventional oil          prospective resource report, Oct ’14

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Canacol’s Acreage Is Colombia’s Shale Oil Sweet Spot 

VMM 2

VMM 3

(1) Pro forma for the relinquishment of the Santa Isabel blockDeGolyer & McNaughton (“D&M”) Resource Report as of 6/30/14. D&M provided mean estimates of Original Oil In Place (OOIP). These estimates have not been adjusted for the probability of geologic success. 

10 kmWells Oil fieldsCanacol wells

Mono Araña

Normal pressure

Over pressured

Tier 1% Vro 0.6‐1.2

Mono Capuchino 

Pico Plata 

Tier 2% Vro >0.6

Page 17: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

PicoPlata‐1 Vertical Unconventional Well

• Operated By Conoco• VMM3 gross acres 83k

• Canacol WI 20%

• La Luna shales• Gross thickness  1369 ft.

• Net pay 866 ft.

• Avg. porosity 10%

• Jan 2017, 3 successful fracs• Highly over pressured

• All fracture treatment successfully placed

• Induced fractures grow in height (125 ‐ 200 ft.)

• Variable flow rates 60 – 500 bopd (no water)

• 31  ̊ API gravity oil 18

Frac #3

SALA

DA A

GALE

MBO

 D‐1

GALE

MBO

 C

Frac #2

Frac #1

Page 18: Investor Deck Sep 13 2017 - Mark Vancouver final · Lower Tubara Mid Miocene / Top CDO Upper CDO Mid CDO Basal CDO 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2.400 PANDERETA‐1 •Applying

Contact

Carolina OrozcoDirector, Investor Relations

44 (0) [email protected] 

Kevin FlickVP, Investor Relations

[email protected] 

Phil HeinrichInvestor Relations Manager

[email protected]

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