Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond
description
Transcript of Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond
![Page 1: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Investigation of science-based options for Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyondNorth Sea cod in 2014 and beyond
Dr Carl O’Brien
Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser
Seafish, Edinburgh
22nd October 2013
NSRAC: Cod Management Focus Group
![Page 2: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
MessageMessage
• Recognise the implications of the 9% cut advised by ICES in June 2013
• Scientific exploration of options
• To note that Ministerial priorities have not been decided:– Options presented may not be pursued– Options may not be possible because of legal
constraintsCod in Subarea IV
(North
Sea) and Divisions
VIId (E
astern Channel) a
nd IIIa W
est
(Skagerrak)
![Page 3: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
F (Fishing Mortality) 2009 2010 2011
MSY (FMSY) Above target
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvested sustainably
Management plan (FMP) Above target
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)
2010 2011 2012
MSY (Btrigger) Below trigger
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Reduced reproductive capacity
Management plan (SSBMP) Below trigger
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.0 0.5 1.0
SSB
in 1
000
t
Fishing Mortality (ages 2-4)
2011
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
F (ag
es 2
-4)
Fishing MortalityFmsyFpaFlim
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008R
ec
ruit
me
nt i
n m
illio
ns
Recruitment (age 1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
SS
B in
10
00
t
Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa
MSY Btrigger
Blim
0
100
200
300
400
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Land
ings
in 1
000
t
Total removalsUnallocated
Discards
Landings
• Gradual improvement in recent years but still poor stock status
• F well above FMSY
• SSB just below Blim
• Recruitment since 2000 has been poor
• Proportion discarded in recent years higher than in past
ICES’ advice released June 2012ICES’ advice released June 2012
![Page 4: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Summary from FMAC meeting lastSummary from FMAC meeting lastyear (2year (2ndnd October 2012) October 2012)
• If the aims are:
– F-based management– Biomass rebuilding– Focus on MSY– e.g. lower limit of F range
then there are alternative options outside of the MP
![Page 5: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Three basic principlesThree basic principles
• Decisions made should be based on:
– Scientific advice
– Sustainability
– Need for continued discard reduction
![Page 6: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Included with Defra letter to Lowri EvansIncluded with Defra letter to Lowri Evansdated 22dated 22ndnd October 2012 October 2012
![Page 7: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
6.3.3.10 EU-Norway request on6.3.3.10 EU-Norway request onNorth Sea cod discard ratesNorth Sea cod discard rates
![Page 8: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
UK’s presented approach last yearUK’s presented approach last year
What about alternative options for 2014
based on this year’s
ACOM advice?
![Page 9: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• Gradual improvement in recent years ...
• F ~ 0.4 between Fpa and FMSY
• SSB now in the vicinity of Blim
• Recruitment since 2000 has been poor
• Proportion discarded in recent years remains higher than in past
ICES’ advice released June 2013ICES’ advice released June 2013
![Page 10: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Options: what next?Options: what next?
– Roll-over of the 2013 TAC in 2014 [ then maintain in 2015 and 2016 to illustrate stock development]
– …many other options and choices
To be aware:– Joint EU-Norway request on TAC setting
options ... maintaining target F=0.4 ... maintaining constant TAC
– ADG (8-10 October 2013), Advice released on Friday 18 October 2013
![Page 12: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Fishing mortality:
2013 ro 2013 ro + 5%2013 ro + 10% 2013 ro + 15% 2013 ro + 20%
2014 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.282015 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.222016 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18
Spawning stock biomass:
2013 ro 2013 ro + 5%2013 ro + 10% 2013 ro + 15% 2013 ro + 20%
2015 124.1 122.5 120.7 119.0 117.22016 171.3 167.2 162.6 158.5 154.32017 222.8 215.9 208.5 201.8 194.3
%change2016:2014 95 91 85 81 76
%change2017:2014 154 146 138 130 121
Cefas’ exploratory evaluationsCefas’ exploratory evaluations
Caution –recruitment ?
![Page 13: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Future recruitment/stock size?Future recruitment/stock size?
Advice June 2013
![Page 14: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
6.3.5.5 EU-Norway request on TAC6.3.5.5 EU-Norway request on TACsetting options for codsetting options for cod
![Page 15: Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815907550346895dc63ab8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
SummarySummary
As last year in the scenarios developed by the UK, there are alternative options to cod management outside of the MP.
Once again, the aims may be:
– F-based management– Biomass rebuilding– Focus on MSY– Discard reduction