INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH
Transcript of INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH
INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH
Hendri Saparini, Ph.D [email protected]
www.coreindonesia.org
Seminar Mahasiswa STIAMI
Bekasi, 29 Maret 2015
Potensi Investasi dan Perdagangan
Indonesia Ekonomi Penting Dunia
Pertumbuhan Stabil dan Tertinggi Ke 3 dan GDP No. 16 Dunia
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2
3
4
5
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9
10
%
0 5 10 15 20
South…
United…
Argentina
Turkey
Indonesia
Korea
Mexico
Australia
India
Canada
Italy
Russia
Brazil
United…
France
Germany
Japan
China
United…
Thousand Billion
0,87
Penduduk Terbesar No. 4 Dunia dan SDA Melimpah
Berpotensi menjadi salah satu production base dunia
Ranking Product Exported Value
(bill. US$) Share Export
(%) Share in world
exports (%) Ranking in world
exports
1 Coal 24.29 12.8 19 2
2 Petroleum gases 20.52 10.8 5 5
3 Palm oil & its fraction 17.60 9.3 46 1
4 Crude petroleum oils 12.29 6.5 1 23
5 Natural rubber 7.86 4.1 22 3
6 Copper ores and concentrates
2.59 1.4 5 5
7 Coconut (copra) 2.46 1.3 45 1
8 Petroleum coke 2.38 1.3 11 2
12 Unwrought tin 2.05 1.1 34 1
13 Plywood 2.01 1.1 14 2
Total 10 94.07 49.5
MP3EI: Enam Koridor Ekonomi
Tiap Daerah memiliki potensi dan daya saing berbeda
Mega economic centers
Economic centers
Sumatera Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of Natural Resources and As Nation’s Energy Reserves”
Kalimantan Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of National Mining and Energy Reserves”
Sulawesi Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of National Agricultural, Plantation, Fishery, Oil & Gas, and Mining”
Papua – Maluku Islands Corridor: “Center for Development of Food, Fishery, Energy and National Mining”
Java Corridor: “Driver for National Industry and Service Provision”
Bali – Nusa Tenggara Corridor: “Gateway for Tourism and National Food Support”
PMA Primer dan Sekunder Akan Tumbuh Lebih Tinggi
Indonesia tujuan investasi utama
Promising Countries For Japanese
FDI (JBIC)
American business representatives:
popular location in ASEAN for
business expansion
UNCTAD: Indonesia’s ranking rose from
position 4 to 3 as a prime investment
destination 2014-2016
Investasi PMA (skala kiri)
Investasi PMDN (skala kiri)
TK PMDN (skala kanan)
TK PMA (skala kanan)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
RIB
U O
RA
NG
TRIL
IUN
RU
PIA
H
Sumber: BKPM
Investasi Langsung Tumbuh
PMA dan PMDN
Penanaman Modal Asing 2013
Industri kendaraan bermotor mendominasi
Lainnya 9%
Transportasi, Gudang &
Komunikasi 5%
Pertanian 6%
Listrik, Gas dan Air
8%
Pertambangan
17%
Industri Lainnya
15%
Ind. Kertas dan
Percetakan 7%
Industri Makanan
13% Ind. Logam, Mesin &
Elektronik 21%
Ind. Kendaraa
n Bermotor
24%
PMA Menurut Sektor Dominasi Manufaktur
Industri Manufaktur
55%
Kimia dan Farmasi
20%
Sumber: BI
Penanaman Modal Domestik, 2013 Industri makanan masih menjadi primadona
Lainnya 4% Pertanian
5%
Konstruksi 7%
Transportasi, &
Komunikasi 13%
Pertambangan
13% Listrik, Gas
dan Air 25%
Industri Lainnya
12%
Ind. Mineral
Non Logam 10%
Ind. Kertas dan
Percetakan 14%
Ind. Logam, Mesin &
Elektronik 16%
Ind. Kimia
dan Farmasi
14%
PMDN Menurut Sektor Dominasi Manufaktur
Industri Manufaktur
33% Industri
Makanan
34%
Sumber: BI
Investasi Untuk Penguatan Daya Saing
.........ketergantungan tinggi pada impor
impor raw material dan intermediate goods
Sumber: BI
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mili
ar U
S$
Consumption Raw Material and Intermediete goods Capital goods
Struktur Impor: 70% Bahan Baku dan Penolong
Ketergantungan harus diselesaikan dengan membangun supporting industri
textiles
rubber and plastics products
fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
other transport equipment
computer, electronic and optical products
basic metals
electrical equipment
wearing apparel
leather and related products
chemicals and chemical products
machinery and equipment n.e.c.
repair and installation of machinery and equipment
pharmaceutical products
%
Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Tidak Mudah Diselesaikan
Defisit neraca minyak, pendapatan dan jasa, akibat permasalahan
struktural
Barang , 1,641
Nonmigas, 4,637
Minyak, -6,497
Gas, 3,501
Jasa - jasa, -2,313
Pendapatan, -5,694
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mill
ion
s o
f U
SD
Sumber : BI
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
ASEAN COMMUNITY
ASEAN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
COMMUNITY
ASEAN POLITICAL AND SECURITY
COMMUNITY
Single Market and
Production Base
Competitive
Economic Region
Equitable Economic
Development
Integration into the
Global Economy
Free Flow of Goods
Free Flow of Services Initiative for ASEAN
Integration
Competition Policy Coherent approach
towards external
economic relations
Enhanced
participation in global
supply networks
SME Development
Freer Flow of Capital
Free Flow of
Skilled Labour
Consumer Protection
Priority Integration
Sectors
Food, Agriculture,
Forestry
Intellectual Property
Rights
Infrastructure
Development
Taxation
e-Commerce
Free Flow of Investment
Neraca Perdagangan Intra-ASEAN: kinerja Indonesia relatif paling buruk, defisit makin melebar
perlu strategi yang tidak memperlebar defisit perdagangan & neraca transaksi berjalan
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Milyar US$
Singapura
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
Filipina
INDONESIA
Non-Migas
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US$ Milyar
Thailand
Singapura
Filipina
Vietnam
Malaysia
Indonesia
Perdagangan Jasa ASEAN defisit Indonesia terbesar dan persisten dibutuhkan strategi dan kebijakan untuk menutup defisit jasa yg lebar
Indonesia hanya tinggal mengandalkan strategi Non-Tariff Barriers
kerjasama ekonomi yang agresif, mengakibatkan
penurunan Import Tariff yang tanpa strategi
India (2013)
Brazil (2011)
China (2011)
Russia (2013)
Indonesia (2011)
All products 13.9 12.2 12.0 10.1 4.8
Agricultural 43.3 11.2 22.6 23.4 13.6
Industrial 11.8 12.3 11.2 9.2 4.2
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China
pasca CAFTA, defisit semakin membengkak
Export
Import
Trade Balance
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mili
ar U
S$
Sumber: International Trade Center
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang pasca JIEPA, non migas terus mengalami defisit
Export
Import
Trade Balance
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mili
ar U
S$
Value of Export & Import
Oil & gas
Non-oil and gas
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mili
ar U
S$
Trade Balance
Sumber: International Trade Center
Investasi Untuk Penyelesaian
Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran
Kinerja Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Tidak menyelesaikan kesenjangan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran
Aceh Bengkulu
DKI Jakarta
Jawa Barat
Banten
Bali
Nusa Tenggara Barat
Nusa Tenggara Timur
Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Sulawesi Utara
Gorontalo
Sulawesi Barat
Maluku
Papua Barat
Papua
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Po
vert
y (%
)
Open Unemployment Rate (%)
HIGH POVERTY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
Sumber: BPS, @CORE
HIGH POVERTY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
LOW POVERTY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
LOW POVERTY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Kesenjangan Melebar Kelas menengah baru pesat, kemiskinan masih sangat tinggi
45
81
93
134
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 2003 2009 2010
Mill
ion
s
(25% popul
(56
Sumber:ADB, Bank Dunia
0
10
20
30
40
DKI J
aka
rta
Bali
Kalse
l
Bab
el
Kalteng
Ban
ten
Kaltim
Kep
ri
Jam
bi
Riau
Kalba
r
Sulut
Malut
Sum
bar
Jabar
Sum
ut
Sulse
l
Sulba
r
Jatim
Sum
sel
Jateng
DIY
Sultra
Sulteng
Ben
gku
lu
Lam
pun
g
NAD
NTB
NTT
Gorontalo
Maluku
Pap
ua Barat
Pap
ua
Provinsi
Pe
rse
n
Terimakasih
Mendorong investasi bukan sekadar
mendulang Pendapatan Asli Daerah.
Perlu pertimbangan penguatan daya saing dan
penyelesaian masalah struktural