Inverse modeling of North American CO sources during the summer 2004 (ICARTT)
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Transcript of Inverse modeling of North American CO sources during the summer 2004 (ICARTT)
Inverse modeling of North American CO sources Inverse modeling of North American CO sources during the summer 2004 (ICARTT)during the summer 2004 (ICARTT)
S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, R. C. Hudman, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, F. Y. Leung, R. M. S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, R. C. Hudman, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, F. Y. Leung, R. M. Yantosca, C. L. Heald, L. K. Emmons, D. P. Edwards, Yantosca, C. L. Heald, L. K. Emmons, D. P. Edwards,
and the INTEX Science Teamand the INTEX Science Team
1. Anthropogenic emissions: • EPA emission inventories and trends: Uncertainty on the CO emissions estimated to ~ 40% by comparison with in situ observations [Parrish, in preparation]• Global inverse modeling analyses : North American FF/BF emissions of CO vary by up to ~ 70% • ICARTT observations: model seem to strongly overestimate CO in the PBL
2. Biomass burning emissions during the summer 2004 : • 2004: worst fire season in Alaska on record!• Burning in boreal forests of Canada or Siberia can have a large impact on CO on
an hemispheric scale, and on air quality in the US in particular • Burning in boreal regions expected to significantly increase as a result of climate
change
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
(R. Hudman)
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Alaska:
• > 2.6 million hectares burned
• > 8 x 10-year average
Canada:
• 15 x average area burned in Yukon Territory (60% of national total)
• 6 x average in British Columbia
US National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC)
Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC)
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
Biomass burning 2004: Strong signature during ICARTTBiomass burning 2004: Strong signature during ICARTT
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Daily reports of the area burned from the NIFC
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
Emissions CO 2004Emissions / unit area
A x 60%
[W.M. Hao, FSL, Personal comm.]
Derive emissions for 10 species, with 1x1 horizontal resolution: NOx, CO, lumped >= C4 alkanes, lumped >= C3 alkenes, acetone, methyl ethyl ketone, acetaldehyde, propane, formaldehyde, and ethane.
MODIS hotspots
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
Total emissions North America June 1st – August 31st = 10.3 Tg CO
Alaska : 5.7 Tg CO 3 x climatology Logan and Yevich
Canada: 4.5 Tg CO 0.9 x climatology ; Yukon territory: 2.3 Tg CO 4.4 x clim.
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Alaska
Canada
Day since June 1st, 2004
2004
Logan and Yevich
To
tal
emis
sio
ns
CO
(T
g)
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
(MOPITT – Model)/MOPITT
MOPITT Total CO – summer 2004 GEOS-CHEM Total CO x MOPITT AK
On average: Underestimate emissions by ~ 25% on average
Area burned? Uncertainty reports…
Emissions / unit area (fuel loads) ?
Injection heights?
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Use TOMS AI as an indicator of the altitude of the aerosol layer:
Sensitivity as altitude of the aerosol layer (low sensitivity to the PBL)
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Pyro-convective cloud from aircraft – June 27, 2004http://www.cpi.com/remsensing/midatm/smoke.html
Day since June 1st, 2004
To
tal
CO
em
iss
ion
sM
ax
imu
m T
OM
S A
I
Alaska – Yukon fires summer 2004
Biomass burning plume sampled by the DC-8 on flight # 9 (July 18th)
GEOS-CHEM NRTObs. G. W. Sachse
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 4, 2005
Biomass burning 2004: Strong signature during ICARTTBiomass burning 2004: Strong signature during ICARTT
GEOS-CHEM NRT
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
850hPa700hPa
500hPa
Compute 5-days trajectories w/ GEOS-4 from TOMS AI to calculate exposure to aerosols (K. Pickering, GSFC, http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/intex/)
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
What are the implications for CO inversion?
MOPITT Total CO July 17-19, 2004 GEOS-CHEM Total CO x MOPITT AK July 17-19, 2004
(MOPITT – Model)/MOPITT
55 %
40 %
400mb
PBL
Vertical distribution
5 % Upper troposphere
Free troposphere
Boundary layer
200mb
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
What are the implications for CO inversion?
GEOS-CHEM BB CO 100 % BL x MOPITT AK
GEOS-CHEM BB CO 100 % UT x MOPITT AK
GEOS-CHEM BB CO 100 % FT x MOPITT AK
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
What is the implications for long range transport?
MOPITT Total CO July 22-24, 2004 GEOS-CHEM Total CO x MOPITT AK July 22-24, 2004
(MOPITT – Model)/MOPITT
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
What are the implications for long range transport?
GEOS-CHEM BB CO 100 % BL x MOPITT AK
GEOS-CHEM BB CO 100 % UT x MOPITT AK
GEOS-CHEM BB CO 100 % FT x MOPITT AK
Ongoing and future workOngoing and future work
1. Using satellite observations to constrain the daily North American biomass burning emissions during the summer 2004
• Magnitude? • Injection height?
GEOS-CHEM NRT July 18
A priori sourcesGEOS-CHEM
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Inversion
A posteriori sources
AIRS CO for July 18
+ TOMS AI? MISR ?
A posteriori sources
Inversion(?)
MOPITT CO for July 18
xax
Strong variability => daily inversion
Ongoing and future workOngoing and future work
2. Inverse modeling of North American anthropogenic emissions of CO using aircraft and satellite measurements
GEOS-CHEM NRT
A priori sourcesGEOS-CHEM
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
AIRS CO
A posteriori sources
Inversion(?)
MOPITT CO
xxa
Ongoing and future workOngoing and future work
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
…
obsy
εKxy x
y
x
yK
MOPITT observation Model simulation, with MOPITT AK applied
Linear approximation:
my
K provides the sensitivity of the measurement to the source of interest.
Calculated using a tagged CO simulation
εxy )f(Observation vector:
State vector: CO sourcesObservation error
with
Ongoing and future workOngoing and future work
Ongoing and future workOngoing and future work
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Day since June 1st, 2004
To
tal
CO
em
iss
ion
sM
ax
imu
m T
OM
S A
I
Alaska – Yukon fires summer 2004
Strong daily variability
Daily inversion
Two main signals for the fires:
• Alaska – Yukon
• Northwest territory
)(1
ˆ aaaa xKySKSKKSxx
TT
Inverse modeling of North American CO emissionsInverse modeling of North American CO emissionsconcept and methodconcept and method
Maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution [Rodgers, 2000]
i.e. solution which minimizes cost function:
)(1)()(1)()J( aaa xxSxxxKySxKyx TT
Difference between observation and simulation
Difference between true state and a priori knowledge
111ˆ
aSKSKS T(MOPITT – MODEL)
A priori state vector Gain matrix
Observation error A priori error
Sequential inversion: observations considered sequentially
Inverse modeling of North American CO emissionsInverse modeling of North American CO emissionsKalman SmootherKalman Smoother
timet = Tt = 0 t = 1 t
Forward Kalman filter
Backward Kalman filter
Combination forward + backward = Kalman smoother
x’(0)^ x’(1)^ x’(T)^
x’’(T)^x’’(1)^x’’(0)^
x’(t)^
x’’(t)^
yobs(0) yobs(1) yobs(T)
x’’ ^
x’ ^
x
A priori
A priori
Update a priori
Update a priori
tttt ξxΜx )1(
tttt εxy )(f εtKtxt t
Ttttt ξSΜSΜS 1
ˆInversion of time dependant emissions: Kalman filter (forward)