Inverse modelling of methane sources and sinks using satellite observations
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM workshop, Jena, 12-15 May 2003
Inverse modelling of methane sources and sinks using satellite
observations Jan Fokke Meirink, Henk
Eskes, Michiel van Weele, Albert Goede
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Overview
EVERGREEN SCIAMACHY inverse modelling strategy first experiments
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
EVERGREENEnVisat for Environmental Regulation of
GREENhouse gases
EC 5th framework programme Feb. 2003 – Feb. 2006 Objective: use ENVISAT (SCIAMACHY and MIPAS)
measurements for inverse modelling of GHG emissions
Partners: KNMI (NL, coordinator), Univ. Bremen (DE), Univ. Leicester (GB), Univ. Heidelberg (DE), NILU (NO), SRON (NL), MPI-BGC (DE), BIRA-IASB (BE), UPMC-SA (FR), RWE-Rheinbraun (DE), Univ. Liège (BE), EC-JRC-IES (IT)
website: http://www.knmi.nl/evergreen
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
EVERGREEN: tasks
Retrieval and validation: CH4, CO, (CO2), O2 columns; clouds
Radiation budget modelling: use of measured trace gas distributions in radiative forcing calculations
(Inverse) modelling: CH4, CO, CO2 emission inventory (forward) model intercomparison (222Rn, SF6,
...) inverse modelling
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT
CH4
CO
CO2
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
SCIAMACHY measurements
No useful retrievals yet: calibration problems (mainly dark current
correction) ice layers on the detectors, channel 7 and 8NIR retrieval quality will depend on: albedo: over water low signal-to-noise ratio solar zenith angle clouds
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
SCIAMACHY: example nadir measurements (simulated)
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Chemistry-transport model TM3 horizontal resolution: 7.5x10 / 3.75x5 / 2.5x2.5
deg vertical resolution: 19 / 31 layers up to 10 hPa slopes scheme for advection ECMWF meteorology 37 tracers (22 transported) CBM-4 scheme for NMHC chemistry nudging at model top to climatology (O3) and
UARS data (CH4) single-tracer version with OH fields from full
model
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Planned model setup in Evergreen
horizontal resolution: 2x3 deg extension of model in vertical direction:
use subset of ECMWF layers up to 0.1 hPa
nudging of CH4 to surface observations to have model reproduce measured NH-SH gradient
up-to-date emissions from WP 4100
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Inversion strategy
4D-var method adjoint model of TM3 CH4-only version has
been developed optimize surface fluxes and initial CH4
field expected: in the beginning adjustments to CH4
field, later to surface fluxes time frame: 1 week to 1 month
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
4D var (1)
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
cost function
4D var (2)
)()(
)()()(
1T
121
01T
021
0
itiiit
n
ii
bb
ii
J
yxHRyxH
ccBccc
0111 xMMMxMx ttttt
state vector x = [c,f]
background error covariance
observation error covariance
observation
observation operator
model
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
4D var (3)
gradient of the cost function
)(
)()(
1
TT
1
T10
10
itiii
iit
n
i
b
i
iJ
yxHRd
dHMMxxBx
adjoint model
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Preconditioning
S diagonal matrix with standard deviations
LLT symmetric matrix with correlations
SLAAABAdcc and with , Tb
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
First experiments First week of January 2000 Sat.obs. taken from perturbed model run Optimize emissions only Background error covariance
Standard deviation: 50% of emission Horizontal correlation function:
Gaussian with length scale of 1000 km Observation error covariance
Diagonal; standard deviation: 0.5% of column
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
A priori emissions
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Perturbed run
50% enhanced emissions
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Effect on CH4 field after one week
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Pseudo satellite observations
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Optimized CH4 emissions
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Resulting CH4 field
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Setting obs to 2%
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Adding 0.5% noise to sat.data
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Methane inversion from satellite, TRANSCOM meeting, Jena,12-15 May 2003
Summary
EU project EVERGREEN for emission estimates of CH4, CO, and possibly CO2, using satellite data.
SCIAMACHY has the potential of measuring CH4 and CO columns, but first some calibration problems have to be solved.
Inverse modelling of CH4 using 4D-var has been set up at KNMI and first experiments have been done.