Introduction to this meeting K. Shibata Kwasan Observatory Kyoto Unversity CAWSES space weather...

Introduction to this meeting K. Shibata Kwasan Observatory Kyoto Unversity CAWSES space weather meeting, 11-12 Sep 2004, Beijing

contents What is CAWSES ? (based on Dr. Basuppt in Sapporo 2003 and in Paris 2004) Space weather research: from solar physics point of view (based on Shibatas ppt in Sapporo 2003)

CAWSES: Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System Sunanda Basu Chair, CAWSES Science Steering Committee Presented by M. Geller CAWSES Bureau and General Meeting Sapporo, 12 and 13 July 2003

CAWSES Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System The New SCOSTEP Program for 2004-2008 Composite picture created at NOAA-NGDC by Dr. Peter Sloss from SKYLAB solar X-ray telescope picture by Naval Research Laboratory and bathymetry and topography databases archived at NGDC.

Strategy Collect data records to document with increasing fidelity various aspects of the Sun-Earth system. Use physically based models for assimilating observed data and deriving enhanced outputs for segments of the solar-terrestrial system. Mobilize SCOSTEP researchers to work together to understand variability throughout the entire solar-terrestrial system.

CAWSES Meetings - Past & Future First CAWSES SSG Meeting held at Maastricht, The Netherlands on August 24-25, 2002 Four themes approved by SCOSTEP Bureau at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sept 28-30, 2002 Theme leaders presented their plans at a Town Hall Meeting on April 8, 2003 during the EGS/AGU Joint Assembly in Nice, France A special CAWSES Meeting was held on July 5, 2003 in conjunction with the IUGG Meeting at Sapporo, Japan Membership of the thematic groups was considered at the Sapporo Meeting Election of new SCOSTEP Executives and presentation of CAWSES Reports at Sapporo on July 12 and 13.

Four Themes under CAWSES Climatology of the Sun-Earth System Solar Influence on Climate Space Weather: Science and Applications Atmospheric Coupling Processes

Proposed campaign framework that views the whole earth as an instrument for making key space weather observations. CAWSES could: Recruit and coordinate needed observing sitesRecruit and coordinate needed observing sites Identify and collaborate with major programs worldwide (Spaceship Earth, Intermagnet, GEDAS, CNOFS, etc.)Identify and collaborate with major programs worldwide (Spaceship Earth, Intermagnet, GEDAS, CNOFS, etc.) Set up website and needed technology in collaboration with other programs like ILWS, eGY, etc.Set up website and needed technology in collaboration with other programs like ILWS, eGY, etc. Organize world-wide analysis campaigns on particular themes or for selected events(from NICE Mtg.)Organize world-wide analysis campaigns on particular themes or for selected events(from NICE Mtg.) 2. Space Weather: Science and Applications 2. Space Weather: Science and Applications Co-Chair- Janet Kozyra, U. of Michigan, USA Co-Chair - K. Shibata, Kyoto University, Japan

2. Space Weather: Science and Applications Impacts on space technology and operations Effects on humans in space Telecommunications interruptions Vulnerability of Earth-surface systems Navigation upsets Effects on high-altitude aircraft passengers and crew Model development through quantitative understanding of multi-scale coupling in the Sun- Earth system (from NICE Mtg.)

Predictive Models of the Space EnvironmentPredictive Models of the Space Environment Post event analysis to test predictive modelsPost event analysis to test predictive models Analysis of physical processes that occurred & reasons predictions succeeded or failedAnalysis of physical processes that occurred & reasons predictions succeeded or failed Test research models against operational predictionsTest research models against operational predictions Document Actual Effects on Life & Society for EventsDocument Actual Effects on Life & Society for Events Power grid loadingPower grid loading Satellite anomaliesSatellite anomalies Communications problemsCommunications problems Sun-to-Earth Analysis Campaigns for Selected EventsSun-to-Earth Analysis Campaigns for Selected Events Coordinate CAWSES worldwide maps with other satellite and ground- based data to create global view of eventsCoordinate CAWSES worldwide maps with other satellite and ground- based data to create global view of events Coordinate efforts of worldwide research community to analyze and interpret comprehensive data setsCoordinate efforts of worldwide research community to analyze and interpret comprehensive data sets Apply new knowledge of complex system to understanding & predicting space weather effects on society (from NICE Mtg)Apply new knowledge of complex system to understanding & predicting space weather effects on society (from NICE Mtg) 2. Space Weather: Science and Applications Potential Worldwide Campaigns

2. Space Weather: Science & Applications Working Group Panel: Janet Kozyra (USA), Kazunari Shibata (Japan) Possible Members: Walter Gonzalez (Brazil), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), A.A. Petrukovich (Russia), Wei Feng Xi (China), R. Sridharan (India), Alain Hilgers (Netherlands) 2.1 Solar Processes Producing Space Weather 2.2 Sun-Earth System Elements and Linkages that determine the severity of space weather disturbances

Space Weather: Science & Applications (cont.) 2.3 Space Weather Data Product Implementation 2.3(a) One-Earth data set analysis and integration Solar H- (an initial effort) - TBD Magnetometers (an initial effort) - Ian Mann (Canada), Brian Fraser (Australia), Valodya Papitashvili (USA), Kazuo Shiokawa (210 chain Japan), INTERMAGNET, Russia?, Denmark?, Mark Moldwin (USA) GPS ionospheric data - Tony Mannucci (USA), TBD Neutral winds, sprites and jets, and gravity waves (collaboration with Theme-3) 2.3(b) "One-Earth" Information Technology (e.g. Virtual Observatory, GEDAS, SPIDR,...)

Perspectives on CAWSES CAWSES is an ambitious program that builds on and leverages the broad SCOSTEP programs STEP and S-RAMP and more specialized Post- STEP programs. CAWSES is particularly timely. Successful implementation of CAWSES will provide an integrated scientific framework for solar-terrestrial research in the future, and provide an informed basis for guiding later programs under different solar conditions and changing anthropogenic influences and as made necessary by new human institutions and technological advances.

CAWSES: Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System CAWSES: Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System Sunanda Basu Chair, Science Steering Committee, CAWSES CAWSES/SCOSTEP Meeting Paris, France July 16-17, 2004

SCOSTEP President: M. A. Geller Vice-president: S. T. Wu Scientific Secretary: J. H. Allen S. K. Avery (URSI) W. Baumjohann (IAGA) R. Fujii (COSPAR) B. Schmieder (IAU) F. W. Sluijter (IUPAP) T. Tsuda (IAMAS) M. Candidi (SCAR) SCOSTEPs mission: to implement research programs in solar-terrestrial physics that benefit from international participation and that involve at least two ICSU bodies. SCOSTEP Bureau

CAWSES Scientific Steering Group Chair: Sunanda Basu, BU, USA Jean-Louis Bougeret, CNRS, France Joanna Haigh, Imperial College, UK Yohsuke Kamide, STEL, Japan Arthur Richmond, NCAR, USA C.-H. Liu, NCU, Taiwan Lev Zelenyi, IKI, Russia P. Duggirala, Scientific Coordinator L. Vercauteren, Program Admin.

Theme 1: Solar Influence on Climate Co-Chairs: Michael Lockwood (UK) and Lesley Gray (UK) WG 1.1: Assessment of Evidence for Solar Influence on Climate Juerg Beer (Switzerland), William Russow (USA), Ilya Usoskin (Russia), Judith Lean (USA), Gerard Thuillier (France), Gerry North (USA), Peter Stott (UK), Warren White (USA), Lon Hood (USA), Karin Labitzke (Germany), Augusto Mangini (Germany) WG 1.2: Investigation of Mechanisms for Solar Influence on Climate Ulrich Cubasch (Germany), Gerry Meehl (USA), Kuni Kodera (Japan), R. Garcia (USA), David Rind (USA), Mark Baldwin (USA), Charles Jackman (USA), Jon Kristjansson (Norway) and Giles Harrison (UK) Theme 2: Space Weather Science & Applications Co-Chairs: Janet Kozyra (USA) and Kazunari Shibata (Japan) Santimay Basu (USA), Walter Gonzalez (Brazil), Nat Gopalswamy (USA), A. T. Kobea (Ivory Coast), Anatoly Petrukovich (Russia), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), Wei Feng Si (China) and R. Sridharan (India)

Theme 3: Atmospheric Coupling Processes Co-Chairs: Franz-Josef Luebken (Germany) and Joan Alexander (USA) WG 3.1: Dynamical Coupling and its Role in the Energy and Momentum Budget of the Middle Atmosphere Martin Mlynczak (USA), William Ward (Canada), David Fritts (USA), Nikolai Gavrilov (Russia), S. Gurubaran (India), Maura Hagan (USA), J. Y. Liu (Taiwan), Alan Manson (Canada), Dora Pancheva (UK), Kauro Sato (Japan), Kazuo Shiokawa (Japan), Hisao Takahashi (Brazil), Robert Vincent (Australia) and Yi Fan (China) WG 3.2: Coupling via Photochemical Effects on Particles and Minor Constituents in the Upper Atmosphere Charles Jackman (USA), Ulf Hoppe (Norway), Manuel Lopez-Puertas (Spain), Daniel Marsh (USA), James Russell (USA), David Siskind (USA) WG 3.3: Coupling by Electrodynamics including Ionospheric Magnetospheric Processes Steve Cummer (USA), Peter L. Dyson (Australia), Inez S. Batista (Brazil), Archana Bhattacharya (India), Jorge Chau (Peru), Martin Fullekrug (Germany), Gang Lu (USA), Roland Tsunoda (USA), and M. Yamamoto (Japan) WG 3.4: Long-Term Trends in Coupling Processes (inter-connected with 4.4)

Theme 4: Space Climatology Co-Chairs: Claus Froehlich (Switzerland) and Jan Sojka (USA) WG 4.1: Solar Irradiance Variability Judit Pap (USA) and Gerard Thuillier (France) WG 4.2: Heliosphere Near Earth Leif Svalgaard (USA) WG 4.3: Radiation Belt Climatology Takahiro Obara (Japan) WG 4.4: Long-Term trends in Ionospheric and Upper-Atmospheric Variability (inter-connected with 3.4) M. Jarvis (UK) and John Emmert (USA)

Space weather research: from solar physics point of view K. Shibata Kwasan Observatory Kyoto University 2003 July 5 at Sapporo, IUGG

Contents Solar physics and space weather Science issue Future strategy Meeting International collaboration Ground-based observations Space observations Numerical simulations

Solar physics and space weather Traditionally, solar physicists have not been interested in space weather. And, still now. This is very bad. One of the important purposes of our activity is to encourage closer communication between solar physicists and geophysicists.

Why solar physicists are not interested in space weather ?

The distance between the Sun and the Earth became much shorter in these 10 years Common physical proccesses began to be discussed by two communities Magnetic reconnection Particle acceleration . Observations of CME significantly developed so that we can now discuss the Sun, solar wind, magnetosphere, and atmospheric phenomena with almost continuos data.

solar corona observed by Yohkoh Soft X-ray ~1 keV) 2MK-10MK

Magnetic reconnection in solar flares

Magnetic reconnection in the Earths tail

outer corona, solar wind, and CME observed with SOHO/LASCO

Solar wind observations (Kojima et al.) From Jacksons homepage

One good exmaple A giant arcade on April 14, K. Shibata reported this arcade event in Yokoh gbo email, suggesting gigantic mass ejections A. McAllister read the gbo email and realized the possibility of a big magnetospheric substorm, and informed it to the electric power company of Chicato The company prepared by removing big transformer (~ 5 - 10 M$) Two days later, actually a big substorm occurred, but the transformer was safe ! The company thanked US government, US government thanked NASA, NASA thanked Yohkoh team, Yohkoh team thanked me.

Important subjects in solar physics Triggering and energy storage mechanisms of solar flares and coronal mass ejectons Coronal heating mechanism Solar wind acceleration mechanism Origin of magnetic field (dynamo) Origin of solar luminosity variation all are important subjects for space weather research

Future meetings ICSC (Gopalswamy) A session in 1 st asia oceania geophysics meeting at Singapore in 2004 (Shibata) Cospar IAU many

proposal from the international Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) community by Gopalswamy CAWSES Project: Theme 2: Space Weather: Science and Applications Project title: Sources of Geomagnetic Activity Main topics for investigation: 1. Solar sources: Coronal Mass Ejections, Coronal Holes, Large-scale Magnetic structures and boundaries, Polar magnetic fields 2. Structure of the Heliosphere and interplanetary transport of solar eruptions 3. Solar energetic ions and electrons 4. Geospace Response to solar events

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity (continued) Project team (to be completed): ------------------------------- N. Gopalswamy (USA, Chair) B. V. Jackson (USA) V. Obridko (Russia) A. Prigancova (Slovakia) B. Schmieder (France) K. Shibasaki (Japan) D. Webb (USA, IAU Rep.) S. T. Wu (USA).... Proposed schedule: ----------------- Small meeting in 2004 Large meeting in 2005 (during the SCOSTEP Symposium)

Proposal for Scientific Sessions of the First ASIA-OCEANIA GEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY Annual Meeting, July 5-9, 2004, title: Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections Organizer K. Shibata S. T. Wu B. C. Low C. Fang

International collaboration project on ground-based observations #1 To put small H-alpha telescopes (H-alpha center, +- 0.8A) at Japan, China, India, Europe, USA to enable continuous full- Sun observations of mass motion associated with flares and CMEs. 0.3 - 2 M$

Flare Monitoring Telescope (Hida Obs., Kyoto Univ.) Images of flares and prominence eruptions are now open through http://www.kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.jp/Hida/FMT/ Full Sun H H0.8 , continuum image On video (2sec cadence) and CD-ROM(1min) with 4.2 arcsec pixel H + 0.8 A HObservations 64mm aperture

Moreton waves flare associated waves observed in H (Moreton 1960) chromospheric manifestation of fast mode MHD shocks in the corona (Uchida 1968) Hcenter H+0.8A,-0.8A

International collaboration project on ground-based observations #2 To put vector magnetograph telescopes at Japan, China, India, Europe, USA to enable continuous full-Sun observations of photospherc vector magnetic field. => now constructing 20cm-25cm full Sun vector magnetograph telescope at Hida observatory of Kyoto Unversity. < 4M$

New ground-based telescope: SMART (Hida Observatory of Kyoto University, 2003 - ) observing full Sun Halpha and vector magnetic fields every 1 minutes H alpha image Vector magnetic field SMART (solar magnetic activity research telescope) consisting of 4 (two 25 cm and two 20 cm) telescopes

Solar-B Mission Japan-US-UK collaboration 2006- Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) X-Ray Telescope (XRT) EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) Science objectives coronal heating coronal dynamics and structure elementary processes such as reconnection emerging flux and dynamo

Other space missions

Numerical simulation projects International collaboration on development of useful MHD/hybrid/particle code and visualization software now we are developing CANS (Coordinated Astronomical Numerical Simulation code; by Matsumoto, Yokoyama, et al. ) International school for (space weather) simulation now domestic astro-MHD simulation summer school (2002 September every year) 7 th International Space Simulation School ISSS7 at Kyoto, 2005 Mar. 26-31

Futue space weather meetings In Japan 2004 Nov. 24-26 space weather meeting at Hamamatsu (with Kozyra) 2005 Apr. 4-6 CAWSES meeting at Tokyo (with Akasofu and many foreigners) In Europe 2005 July 18-25 IAGA/IUGG at France

Electronic Proceedings We will make electronic proceeding including ppt files If you agree, please send your ppt file to me. Thank you.

Introduction to this meeting K. Shibata Kwasan Observatory Kyoto Unversity CAWSES space weather...

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