Introduction to HDM-4 Henry Kerali Lead Transport Specialist The World Bank.
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Transcript of Introduction to HDM-4 Henry Kerali Lead Transport Specialist The World Bank.
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Introduction to HDM-4
Henry KeraliLead Transport SpecialistThe World Bank
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Transport and Development
Transport sector is vital for economic & social developmentRoads constitute the largest component of transportRoads require a balance of:
Maintenance (or Preservation)Development (or Improvement)
Objective of Road ManagementConsistent and Rational Policy ObjectivesSufficient and Reliable FundingEffective Procedures & Management Tools
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Alignments
Pavement standards
Road standards
HDM-4 Objectives .Economic basis for selecting investment alternatives
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HDM-4 Objectives ..
Traffic congestionVehicle emissions
Travel times
Non-motorized transport facilities
Transport costs
Road accidents
Standard framework for investigating road investmentsMinimize Road Agency and Road User Costs
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History of the HDM model
de Weille1966
Highway Cost Model1971
Kenya Study1971-75
HDM-II1981
Caribbean Study 1977-82India Study 1976-82Brazil Study 1975-84
HDM-III1987
HDM-VOC Model 41994
HDM-4HDM-420002000
ISOHDMISOHDM
RTIM
(TRRL)
RTIM2
(TRL)
RTIM3
(TRL)
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HDM-4 Concept
Predicts road network performance as a function of
Traffic volumes and loading
Road pavement type and strength
Maintenance standards
Environment / Climate
Quantifies benefits to road users from:Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC)
Reduced road user travel times
Decrease in number of accidents
Environmental effects
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Optimum
Total
Road User
Road Works
Cost
Design Standards
Optimum Transport Costs
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Road Management
Purpose: To optimise the overall performance of the network over time in accordance with POLICY OBJECTIVES and within budgetary constraints
Typical objectives:Minimise transport costs
Preserve asset value
Provide and maintain accessibility
Provide safe and environmentally friendly transport
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Life Cycle Costs
Road Agency CostsManagement, OperationsLabor, Equipment, MaterialsLand acquisitionMaintenance and Rehabilitation
Road User CostsVehicle operationTravel timeRoad accidents
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Comparison of Project Alternatives
WithOverlay
WithoutOverlay
Discounted RAC(Road works + RUC)
Project Life (years) End ofAnalysis
NPV
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Comparison of Project Alternatives
Cost ofPaving
WithoutPaving
Discounted RAC
Project Life (years) End ofAnalysis
NPV
RUC
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Life Cycle Analysis
Discount AnnualCosts & Compare
Predict RoadDeterioration
Predict RoadWork Effects
VOC, Accident & Time costs
OutputNPV, IRR,..
InputData
Repeat for all years
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Road Deterioration
Predict long term pavement performancePredict effects of maintenance standardsCalculate annual costs: Road Agency + Road User
Ro
ad C
on
dit
ion
Rehabilitation
Time (years) or Traffic Loading
Maintenance Standard
PavementPerformanceCurve
Good
Poor
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Pavement Performance
Pavement Types modelled:Bituminous (AC, ST, etc.)Unsealed (Gravel, Earth, Sand, etc.)Concrete (JPCP, JRCP, CRCP, etc.)Block (Bricks, etc.)
Models from pavement performance experiments in:
Brazil, Kenya, India, South AfricaFrance, USA, Sweden, Finland, Australia
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Principles Of Deterioration Models
Models are structured empirical Individual distresses modelled separatelyRelationships are incremental and recursive
dY = K a0 f(X1, X2, X3, etc)
Modelled sequentially through to roughnessMaintenance intervention at end of each year
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Cracking Initiation Model
ICA=Kcia{CDS2*a0exp[a1SNP+a2(YE4/
SN2)+CRT}
ICA time to cracking initiation, in years
CDS construction quality
SNP structural number of pavement
YE4 traffic loading
Kcia calibration factor
CRT effect of maintenance
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All Cracking Progression
dACA = Kcpa
CDSCRPzA [(zA*a0*a1*tA*YE4*SNPa2
+ SCAa1 )1/a1 - SCA]
CRP = retardation of cracking progression due to preventive treatment
Progression of All cracking commences when tA > 0 or ACAa > 0
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t 1 t 1
Wateringress
Furthercracking
Patches
Shear
Unevensurface
Spalling
Fasterdeformation
ROUGHNESS
Potholes
Patches
Time Time
UnevenSurface
Lower strength
Area ofCracking
Rutdepth
Pavement Deterioration Concept
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Concrete Roads
Joint SpallingPunch outsCrackingFaultingSlab failuresRiding Quality
Models FromUSAChile
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Bituminous Pavements
Predicteddefects:
CrackingRavellingEdge BreakPotholesRiding QualitySkidding
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Bituminous Road Deterioration .
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Bituminous Road Deterioration ..
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Unsealed Roads
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Unsealed Road Deterioration ..
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Unsealed Road Deterioration …
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Road Work Classification
PreservationPreservationRoutine
• Patching, Edge repair
• Drainage, Crack sealing
Periodic• Preventive treatments
• Rehabilitation
• Pavement reconstruction
Special• Emergencies
• Winter maintenance
DevelopmentDevelopment
Improvements• Widening
• Realignment
• Off-carriageway works
Construction• Upgrading
• New sections
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Road Works
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Road Work Effects
Condition
Traffic / Time
Reconstruct
Overlay
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Road User Effects
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Road User Effects
Vehicle operating costsfuel, oil, tyres, parts consumptionvehicle utilisation & depreciation
Travel timepassengerscargo
Road accidentsNon-Motorized TransportEnergy consumptionVehicle emissions & noise
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RUE Features in HDM-4
Effects of traffic congestion on speed, fuel, tyres and maintenance costsNon-motorised transport modellingEffects of road works on usersTraffic safety impactVehicle emissions impact Vehicle noise impact
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Motorised Vehicles
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Impact of Road Condition on VOC
Road Condition (IRI)
Roa
d U
ser
Cos
ts (
$/ve
h-km
)
Good Poor
Car
Pickup/utility
Heavy Truck
Bus
Rickshaw
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Non-Motorised Transport
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Role of HDM-4
Management Function HDM-4 Application
Planning Strategy Analysis
Programming Programme Analysis
Preparation Project Analysis
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Road Management Functions
PlanningSetting standards and policiesLong term estimates of expenditure
ProgrammingMedium term work programmes
PreparationDetailed project design and work packaging
OperationsImplementation of works in field
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HDM-4 Applications
Road sector policy studies
Strategic planning of road network development, improvement & maintenance
Determination of funding requirements
Preparation of multi-year road work programmes
Economic appraisal of individual road projects
Research studies
Road pricing
Vehicle regulations
Pavement design standards
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Standards & Policies
Road pricingroad use costs (to define fuel levies)congestion chargesweight-distance charges
Vehicle regulationsaxle load limitsenergy consumption, vehicle emissions & noise
Engineering Standardssustainable road network sizepavement design and maintenance standards
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Strategy Analysis
Objectives:Determine budget allocations for road maintenance and improvementPrepare work programsDetermine long term network performanceAssess impact on road users
Analysis of entire road networks to determine funding needs and predict performance under budget constraints
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Strategic Analysis ApproachRoad NetworkRoad Network G F P
LMHMatrixMatrix
Resource Constraints
Optimal Strategy underBudgetary Constraints
PreservationEvaluation
OptimizationModule
Revenues, Sector budgets
Development Candidates
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Effect of budget levels
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Ave
rage
Rou
ghne
ss (
IRI)
$20m
$15m
$10m
AnnualBudget
Target = 3.5 IRI
Primary Roads
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Road Network Performance
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ave
rage
Rou
ghne
ss (
IRI)
FeederRoads$30m/yr
SecondaryRoads$35m/yr
PrimaryRoads$20m/yr
Budget Allocations
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Programme Analysis
Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraintAnnual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan
Preparation of single or multi-year expenditure programs under specified budget constraints.
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Procedure .
Use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g.
road sections which exceed specified conditionroads with inadequate capacitypavements which need strengtheningupgrade pavements with high traffic volumes
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Procedure ..
Determine maintenance or improvement optionsSpecify budget limits & periodsOptimise using selected objectiveProduce optimal list of projects for budget period
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Work Programme Output
Priority Road Length Province Type of Scheduled Cost CumulativeRank Section (km) or District Road Work Year $m S$m
1 N1-2 20.5 2 Resealing 2000 5.4 5.42 N4-7 23.5 7 Overlay 40mm 2000 10.9 16.33 N2-5 12.5 5 Reconstruct 2000 8.6 24.94 R312-1 30 4 Widen 4 lane 2000 31.4 56.35 R458-3 36.2 3 Overlay 60mm 2000 16.3 72.6
: : : : : : : :1 N4-16 32.1 6 Reconstruct 2001 22.8 22.82 R13-23 22.4 4 Overlay 40mm 2001 9.7 32.53 N521-5 45.2 2 Widen 4 lane 2001 41.3 73.8
: : : : : : : :1 N1-6 30.2 4 Resealing 2002 8.2 8.22 N7-9 17.8 3 Overlay 60mm 2002 9.2 17.43 F2140-8 56.1 1 Reconstruct 2002 34.9 52.3
: : : : : : : :
20032003200320032003
200420042004
200520052005
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Project Appraisal
Project types
New construction, upgrading
Reconstruction, resealing
Widening, lane addition
Non-Motorised Transport lanes
Economic indicators
Net Present Value (NPV)
Economic Rate of Return (ERR)
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), NPV/C
First Year Rate of Return (FYRR)
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Project Level Outputs
Sensitivity analysis resultsScenario analysisRoad condition indicatorsRoad user cost detailsEnergy & emissions
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HDM Technology Set
KnowledgeBase
Software
ModelsSEERDWE
RUE
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HDM Series
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Conclusions – Why HDM-4?
Transparency of analysis
Life cycle analysis capable of:Short, Medium & Long term analyses
What-if analysis
Internationally accepted analysis framework
Availability of technical expertise
Local calibration
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Web sites:
http://hdm4.piarc.orghttp://www.bham.ac.uk