Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera...
Transcript of Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera...
![Page 1: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Introduction to Artificial
Intelligence
8 April 2019
© Society of Actuaries
![Page 2: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The views expressed in this presentation are
those of the presenter(s) and not necessarily
those of the Society of Actuaries in Ireland or
their employers.
Disclaimer
![Page 3: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Conor Byrne
– Deputy Chair, SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee
Welcome
![Page 4: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Examples
Agenda
![Page 5: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• AI is where the machine’s actions/output is indistinguishable from a trained person’s actions/output
• Types of AI:
– Artificial General Intelligence
– Artificial Narrow Intelligence
What is AI?
![Page 6: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
General Examples
Self-Driving Cars Speech-to-text
Recommender Systems
Game Playing
Reducing Electricity Costs
Machine translation
Chatbots
Text-to-Speech
Fraud Detection
Credit Risk
Pricing
Customer Retention
Proxy Models
Sales Forecasting
Anti-Money Laundering
Call-Centre Routing
Sentiment Analysis
Geographic Analysis
AnalysingSatellite Photos
Reading X-rays
![Page 7: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
History of AI
https://www.actuaries.digital/2018/09/05/history-of-ai-winters/
![Page 8: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• Tribes of AI– Connectionists (inspired by neuroscience)
– Bayesians (learn from experience)
– Evolutionists (inspired by evolution)
– Symbolists (if….Then…elseif….then….therefore)
– Analogisers (Learn new things based on existing knowledge base)
Types of AI
![Page 9: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Data Storage Costs
![Page 10: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Digitalization
![Page 11: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Number of Wifi-Connected Devices
![Page 12: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Volume of Data
![Page 13: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Computer Speeds
![Page 14: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Data Science Tools
![Page 15: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Machine Learning
![Page 16: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Examples
Agenda
![Page 17: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• Regression
– Predicting a real number
• Classification
– Predicting what category something belongs to
• Unsupervised Learning
– E.g. Clustering
What are Neural Networks Used For?
![Page 18: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Functional Specification:
• Define every single step in the process
• Then implement each step
Regression/Classification
• Define the architecture of the model
• Tell the model what the output should be
• Let the computer find the optimal model
– Which gives the best match to the desired output
Regression/Classification vs Specification
![Page 19: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Regression
• Linear Regression Model:
• Choose Loss Function
(e.g. Sum of Square Errors)
• Choose parameters a and b which minimise the loss function
• Neural Network Model:
![Page 20: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Classification
https://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~yvchen/doc/TSMC_ML-Tutorial.pdf
![Page 21: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Digital Photos
Source: Openframeworks.cc
• Digital Photos are stored as arrays of numbers
![Page 22: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Classification
https://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~yvchen/doc/TSMC_ML-Tutorial.pdf
![Page 23: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Digital Text
• Can be converted to vectors of numbers• Glove
• Word2Vec
• Word Embeddings
![Page 24: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Classification
![Page 25: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Classification
https://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~yvchen/doc/TSMC_ML-Tutorial.pdf
![Page 26: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Classification
![Page 27: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Regression and Classification
Self-Driving Cars Speech-to-text
Recommender Systems
Game Playing
Reducing Electricity Costs
Machine translation
Chatbots
Text-to-Speech
Fraud Detection
Credit Risk
Pricing
Customer Retention
Proxy Models
Sales Forecasting
Anti-Money Laundering
Call-Centre Routing
Sentiment Analysis
Geographic Analysis
AnalysingSatellite Photos
Reading X-rays
![Page 28: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Classification
![Page 29: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Regression and Classification
Self-Driving Cars Speech-to-text
Recommender Systems
Game Playing
Reducing Electricity Costs
Machine translation
Chatbots
Text-to-Speech
Fraud Detection
Credit Risk
Pricing
Customer Retention
Proxy Models
Sales Forecasting
Anti-Money Laundering
Call-Centre Routing
Sentiment Analysis
Geographic Analysis
AnalysingSatellite Photos
Reading X-rays
![Page 30: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Digital Audio Files
Source: ch.mathworks.com
• Digital Audio files are stored as a time series of arrays
• Each array contains information on pitch and loudness
![Page 31: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
General Examples
Self-Driving Cars Speech-to-text
Recommender Systems
Game Playing
Reducing Electricity Costs
Machine translation
Chatbots
Text-to-Speech
Fraud Detection
Credit Risk
Pricing
Customer Retention
Proxy Models
Sales Forecasting
Anti-Money Laundering
Call-Centre Routing
Sentiment Analysis
Geographic Analysis
AnalysingSatellite Photos
Reading X-rays
![Page 32: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Examples
Agenda
![Page 33: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
• In theory, neural networks can approximate any continuous function
• Corollory: Any task which can be approximated by a continuous function can be approximated by a neural network
– Any task which can be specified using a continuous function can be approximated by a neural network
Universal Approximation Theorem
![Page 34: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
![Page 35: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
![Page 36: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
![Page 37: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
![Page 38: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
![Page 39: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
http://neuralnetworksanddeeplearning.com
![Page 40: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
https://codetolight.wordpress.com/2017/11/29/getting-started-with-pytorch-for-deep-learning-part-3-neural-network-basics/
![Page 41: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
https://codetolight.wordpress.com/2017/11/29/getting-started-with-pytorch-for-deep-learning-part-3-neural-network-basics/
![Page 42: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
How do Neural Networks Work?
https://codetolight.wordpress.com/2017/11/29/getting-started-with-pytorch-for-deep-learning-part-3-neural-network-basics/
![Page 43: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
http://www.asimovinstitute.org/neural-network-zoo/
![Page 44: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Examples
Agenda
![Page 45: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45
Practical Example: Traditional Modelling and Machine Learning
![Page 46: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46
How much is a 1000 square foot house?
Eyeball approach:
Around €90k
![Page 47: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
47
Linear Regression Predictive Model
• Linear Regression Model:
• Price = €101,955
• Slope = 108
• Intercept = -5,700
• MSE = 258 million
• But how do you find the slope and intercept?
![Page 48: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48
Functional Specification Approach: Normal Equation
![Page 49: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49
Linear Regression Predictive Model
Linear Regression Model:
• Price = €101,955
• Slope = 108
• Intercept = -5,700
• MSE = 258 million
![Page 50: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
Approach 1: Normal Equation
Problem with normal equation:
• Only works if 𝑋𝑇𝑋 is invertible
• Doesn’t work on other models
• Doesn’t work well on large datasets
![Page 51: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51
Approach 2: Gridsearch
![Page 52: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52
Approach 2: Gridsearch
![Page 53: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53
Approach 2: Gridsearch
![Page 54: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54
Approach 2: Gridsearch
![Page 55: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
55
Approach 2: Gridsearch
• Problem with gridsearch: Very inefficient
• Only works for models with a handful of parameters
![Page 56: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
56
Approach 2: Gridsearch
![Page 57: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
57
Approach 3: Stochastic Gradient Descent
1. You don’t know the slope and intercept, so randomly choose them
2. Therefore you start at a random point
3. Calculate the slope of the MSE loss surface at that point
4. Take a step downhill
5. Repeat 3 and 4 until you reach the lowest point on the loss surface
![Page 58: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
58
Approach 3: Stochastic Gradient Descent
1. You don’t know the slope and intercept, so randomly choose them
2. Therefore you start at a random point
3. Calculate the slope of the MSE loss surface at that point
4. Take a step downhill
5. Repeat 3 and 4 until you reach the lowest point on the loss surface
![Page 59: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
59
Approach 3: Stochastic Gradient Descent
1. You don’t know the slope and intercept, so randomly choose them
2. Therefore you start at a random point
3. Calculate the slope of the MSE loss surface at that point
4. Take a step downhill
5. Repeat 3 and 4 until you reach the lowest point on the loss surface
![Page 60: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
60
Approach 3: Stochastic Gradient Descent
SGD gives exact same answer as Normal Equation in this example
![Page 61: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
61
SGD: Python Code
![Page 62: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62
Approach 3: Stochastic Gradient Descent
![Page 63: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
63
SGD: Cubic Polynomial
![Page 64: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
64
SGD: Cubic Polynomial
![Page 65: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
65
SGD: Exponential Model
![Page 66: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
66
SGD: Exponential Curve
![Page 67: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
67
SGD: Exponential Plus Cubic Model
![Page 68: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
68
SGD: Exponential Plus Cubic Model
![Page 69: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
69
SGD: Sine Regression
![Page 70: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
70
SGD: Python Code
![Page 71: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
71
SGD: Mathematical Background
![Page 72: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
72
Benefits of SGD
• It is straightforward to calibrate predictive models
• You can build models with thousands of parameters
• Can work on huge data sets
• Can achieve human-level accuracy
• You can build models for all different types of data• Pictures
• Videos
• Audio
• Text
• Policyholder datafiles
![Page 73: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
73
Neural Network Models
http://www.asimovinstitute.org/neural-network-zoo/
![Page 74: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
74
Benefits of SGD
• It works very well in practice• You can choose models which are a good fit to the data
• Rather than choosing models which you are able to fit to the data
![Page 75: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Examples
Agenda
![Page 76: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
76Source: Indeed.com, November 2017
![Page 77: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
• Powerful new tools to solve real-world problems
– Neural Networks for modelling big datafiles
– Fast open-source end-to-end calculation abilities
– Gradient Descent = general purpose solver for complex models
• The ultimate wider field?
– Take actuarial skill-set out of actuarial department and into the real world
• Already familiar with handling data and regression modelling
• Low hanging fruit?
• Superstar salaries for top researchers
• Competition vs data scientists?
Why Should Actuaries Be Interested?
![Page 78: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
• Extract value from their data
• Better understanding of risks and opportunities by doing quick, novel analyses of the data
• Good models can do the same amount of work as 1000 people (at any particular task) – It may not be feasible for companies to hire 1000 people to perform a
certain task
– But they may be interested in getting an actuary to produce a model which can do that task
– That model could be scaled up to be run on many computers so could do the work of say 1000 people
Opportunities for Insurance Companies
![Page 79: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
• New companies could develop massive structural advantages over incumbents?
– E.g. Amazon have massive structural advantages over traditional retailers
– E.g. companies who improve retention will increase market share over time
Opportunities for Companies
![Page 80: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Next Steps
Online courses on deep learning
(e.g. Coursera / Udacity / FastAI)
Learn Python (or Julia)
https://www.reddit.com/r/learnpython/wiki/index
Meetup groups
SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee
![Page 81: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Coursera Deep Learning Course
Jazz improvisation
Face Recognition
Text Generation
![Page 82: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Coursera Deep Learning Course
![Page 83: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Starry Night
![Page 84: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Monet
![Page 85: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Gothic
![Page 86: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Mona Lisa
![Page 87: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Brainstorming
Agenda
![Page 88: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
Brainstorming
What mapping f() do you want to discover
For dataset X and target variable Y
Which enables you to estimate 𝒀 = 𝒇 𝑿 for new or
updated values of X?
![Page 89: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Brainstorming
What output / task would you like a computer to do?
![Page 90: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
BrainstormingMany possible datasets Many possible target variables
Policyholder Datafiles
Claims Datafiles
Time Series Data
Text Files
Pictures
Videos
Audio
Policy Reserves
Price
Fraud / Not Fraud
Risk of Lapsing:High/Medium/Low
Rating from 1-5
Mapping
Very Flexible Model
![Page 91: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
General Examples
Self-Driving Cars Speech-to-text
Recommender Systems
Game Playing
Reducing Electricity Costs
Machine translation
Chatbots
Text-to-Speech
Fraud Detection
Credit Risk
Pricing
Customer Retention
Proxy Models
Sales Forecasting
Anti-Money Laundering
Call-Centre Routing
Sentiment Analysis
Geographic Analysis
AnalysingSatellite Photos
Reading X-rays
![Page 92: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
Example: Captioning
Red dress with White Spots and Black Belt
Red sweater with white stripes on arms and Gingerbread man with
Christmas Hat
Train Model
• In future: – Run thousands of pictures through the model every week
– The model will output a caption for each picture
– Use model output in recommender system and stock system
– The model predicts what a human captioner would describe it as
![Page 93: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
Automated Phone Answering System
Speech-to-text
Recommender Systems
Machine translation
Chatbots
Text-to-Speech
Converts Person’s Voice to Text
Helps the chatbot make recommendations
Translates it into the language used in HQ
Generates appropriate response to what the person said
Converts the text back into audio
![Page 94: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Example: Fraud Detection
Claim isn’t Fraudulent
Claim is Fraudulent
Train Model
• In future: – Record the mouse tracks for each claim
– Run these through the model
– The model will predict whether each incoming claim is fraudulent or non-fraudulent
![Page 95: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
BrainstormingMany possible datasets Many possible target variables
Policyholder Datafiles
Claims Datafiles
Time Series Data
Text Files
Pictures
Videos
Audio
Policy Reserves
Price
Fraud / Not Fraud
Risk of Lapsing:High/Medium/Low
Rating from 1-5
Mapping
Very Flexible Model
![Page 96: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Some or all of:
• When the problem can’t be easily solved using functional specification
– When you have noisy real-world data
• When you have lots of data
• When you have access to high-speed computing systems
• When accuracy is more important than interpretability
– May achieve human-level accuracy but may be black-boxish
• When you need to produce results regularly and quickly
When to use Neural Networks
![Page 97: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence · Meetup groups SAI Data Analytics Subcommittee. Coursera Deep Learning Course Jazz improvisation Face Recognition Text Generation. Coursera](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062402/5ec7f4360874e9695b486abb/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
• What is AI?
• Regression/Classification vs Specification
• How do Neural Networks work?
• Gradient Descent Optimisation
• Why Should Actuaries be Interested?
• Examples
Any Questions?