Introduction - THIMUN SingaporeArtificial Intelligence (AI) Artificial intelligence is a subfield of...

The Hague International Model United Nations, Singapore 2019| XV Annual Session

Research Report | of 13

Forum: General Assembly 1

Issue: The question of Artificial Intelligence [AI] in the context of

disarmament and international security

Student Officer: Chris Lim

Position: Deputy Chair

Introduction

As humanity progresses into the early 21st century, the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI)

has heralded a new era worldwide. Ranging from self-driving vehicles to systems that can predict

natural disasters, artificial intelligence is versatile and ubiquitous within global society, often serving an

integral part in transforming industries and catalyzing the process of globalization. As a result, AI

technology has been able to expedite economic growth in many countries, and it has brought

revolutionary changes to the lives of civilians all over the world.

AI technology has repeatedly demonstrated how it can complement aspects of society, but

integrating artificial intelligence into security and disarmament has introduced a myriad of challenges

along with its benefits. This is mainly due to AI's sheer power, complexity, and unpredictability - three

features of AI that make its implementation notably risky. On a national level, AI can be integrated into a

variety of technologies to improve security; surveillance cameras can detect weapons or 'unusual

behaviour', computers can search for cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and government media outlets can

identify and remove disinformation.

With regards to the potential for implementation on an international level, the invention of AI is

often referred to as the "third revolution in warfare," following the discovery of gunpowder and nuclear

weapons. Given that AI is classified as a revolutionary tool for security and disarmament, this reinforces

the need for international regulations to ensure AI is not exploited in conflict. Unlike other means of force

such as nuclear or biological weapons, materials needed for AI production are relatively cheap and

accessible, making it significantly easier to produce. Due to its accessibility, the private sector is

reportedly far ahead in utilizing AI research and development. Hence, many argue that the further

integration of AI in the public sector is necessary to prevent a loss of control, and to dwindle the

influence of private firms. Several nations, including the United States of America, France, United

Kingdom, China, Israel, the Republic of Korea, and Russia, have publicly stated plans for improvement

and deployment of AI in the military, initiating an international artificial intelligence arms race.



Figure 1: The Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System (MAARS), developed by Qinetiq PLC. May 2017 (Qinetiq NA)

Definition of Key Terms

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial intelligence is a subfield of computer science that develops machines able to replicate

human cognition and intellect. A factor that clearly distinguishes AI from other technologies is the ability

to perform functions that are exclusive to intelligent beings, such as making decisions, perceiving visual

stimuli, and interpreting speech. In military context, AI can be used for a multitude of tasks, including

surveillance, protection, and engaging targets.

Lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs)

A type of military robot that can independently search and eliminate targets based on

programmed constraints and pre-defined criteria. LAWs do not require human intervention or input to

function. Autonomous offensives systems are LAWs that are used for offensive purposes, and they

generally have more autonomy. Therefore, they attract more concern when it comes to legal and ethical

issues. Autonomous defensive systems are LAWs that are used for defensive purposes.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

This is an aircraft that is piloted via remote control or onboard computers. As a result, it does not

have a human pilot or passengers on board. Although UAVs can be fully autonomous like AI, they are

often controlled by a human operator at ground level. Due to its innate ability to travel with great speed

and efficiency, this technology has far reaching potential in warfare, and thus, it draws controversy on

how it should be utilized. UAVs are more commonly known and referred to as "drones".



Cyber-warfare

The utilization of a range of computer technologies to disrupt the activities of a state or

organization, through breaching and hacking authorization systems. This is often done as a deliberate

attack on an institution or to provide strategic military advantages. With the rise of artificial intelligence,

cyber-attacks are becoming an emerging threat for private organizations and government agencies.

Background Information

The fundamental concept of artificial intelligence can be traced from antiquity, with several

century-old myths and beliefs of artificial beings possessing intellectual qualities unique to humans.

However, this concept had never been fully conceived until the invention of the first programmable

computer in 1936. Although early computers were only based on the essence of mathematical

reasoning, they planted the seeds of modern artificial intelligence by leading to a rapid increase in

research and development. These computers flocked a generation of scientists inspired by the idea of

building a machine that can mimic human intelligence, and this has ultimately accumulated interest in

the concept of machine learning.

In 1956, an assistant professor of mathematics at Dartmouth College named John McCarthy

hosted an event known as the 'Dartmouth workshop'. This was a convention dedicated to the concept of

'thinking machines' - widely considered the prequel and foundation of modern-day artificial intelligence.

Participants of the Dartmouth workshop discussed an array of topics regarding computer technology,

such as neural networks, abstraction and natural language processing, consequently leading to the birth

of artificial intelligence as a subfield of computer science. This is the point which many people refer to as

'the birth of artificial intelligence', and it initiated the inexorable growth of AI.

The implementation of AI in international security

Nations soon realized the true potential of integrating artificial intelligence with military vehicles

and equipment. Using AI technology can bring many strategic advantages - for example, it can help

make quicker and more informed decisions, increase the speed and scale of actions, or lower casualties

and losses. This can ultimately reduce the repercussions in conflicts and promotes international security

among nations. However, the absence of human input and control, as well as AI's unprecedented

potential has lead to concern over legal and ethical exploitation. In theory, AI could possibly be used to

intentionally or unintentionally violate the ethics of conflict - for instance, lethal autonomous weapons

(LAWs) can be programmed and deployed to target an ethnic group selectively.

One of the earliest cases of artificial intelligence being used for combat purposes is by the US

military in 1956, when the USS Mississippi (BB-41 Ship) test-fired a computer-guided missile that could



automatically correct for variations in its altitude and speed. Between the late 1950s and the mid-1960s,

concern over the Soviet Union's capabilities led to an increase in funding institutions like the

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and projects to gradually modernize their military.

Eventually, these technologies would be utilized during actual warfare and some experienced success.

During the Vietnam War in 1972, the US air force used a laser-guided weapon to destroy the Thanh Hoa

Bridge, which was a strategic spot for the Vietcong.

Unfortunately, the danger of using artificial intelligence began to show. On the 3rd of July, 1988,

the aegis air-defence system USS Vincennes deployed at the Persian Gulf destroyed an Iranian

commercial airliner, killing all 290 people aboard. The incident had occurred because the system

detected a 'hostile aircraft' while in semi-automatic mode, falsely identifying the commercial airliner as a

threat. As expected, the event became an immense controversy, with the Iranian government deeming

the incident as a deliberate attack on Iran and its people. In July 1988, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar

Velayati asked for the condemnation of the United States because the attack "could not have been a

mistake" and was a "criminal act", a "massacre," and an "atrocity." Aside from affecting the US-Iran

relationship for years to come, the tragic incident also served as a warning for using AI for military

purposes. Developers knew that militarizing AI bestowed a huge responsibility to them; AI could

jeopardize the safety of many people if not reliably programmed.

The artificial intelligence arms race

Analysts argue that the global arms race for better artificial intelligence forces has started in the

mid-2010s, with three dominating countries in particular - China, Russia and the United States of

America. Other MEDCs and LEDCs have practised implementing AI, but these three countries'

actions will significantly influence the international norms for LAWs. In the 2018 UN CCW

meeting for the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) for LAWs, Russia and the United States

were among five countries that opposed a ban for developing these weapons. This suggested

that the arms race for better militarized AI technology will continue. China has stated in the same

meeting that they are for a LAWs ban, along with their concern over the artificial intelligence

arms race.

Although a country's progress on AI development is mostly classified information, the

international community can be informed of this through conventions and events in which

government representatives meet and discuss. For instance, in April 2019, Secretary Nikolai

Patrushev mentioned that "a comprehensive regulatory framework" for "the specified [new]

technologies" is necessary, which could be considered a contradiction to Russia's stance in the

2018 UN CCW meeting. The U.S, on the other hand, seems to argue for further development of

AI technology. For the U.S, issuing a ban on these weapons are premature due to it being



relatively new in the context of disarmament and security. Also, maintaining control through

superior AI technology can prevent less developed military forces from intervening, which could

increase violence and casualties in the conflict. If designed and appropriately regulated, AI

technology can significantly reduce the consequences of warfare and ultimately increase

international security and disarmament.

Modern-day legal and ethical issues

The growth of AI was accelerating, and other countries such as China, France and South Korea

were beginning to modernize their military as well. In September 2006, South Korea announced plans to

install Samsung Techwin SGR-A1 sentry robots along the Demilitarized Zone with North Korea. The

robots would be armed with machine guns, designed to track and engage targets autonomously, but

human approval is required before firing. These are one of many examples of the increasing use of

Autonomous Defense Systems LAWs within countries.

A new subcategory of LAWs classified as Autonomous Offensive Systems has become

increasingly common as well. In November 2002, the US deployed the first Unmanned Combat Aerial

Vehicle (UCAV) 100 miles east of Sanaa, Yemen. The drone strike had shown its effectiveness,

managing to kill six militants (including one American) amidst an ongoing conflict. Many refer to this

occasion as the birth of 'killer drones', which cover a large portion of Autonomous Offensive Systems

today. Progress on developing these LAWs has continued in several nations. For example, Russia has

begun to develop AI-guided missiles that can decide to switch targets mid-flight, Israel has developed an

autonomous anti-radar, and South Korea has developed an autonomous machine gun that can track

and destroy targets at a range of four kilometers.

Figure 2: SGR-A1 Sentry Guard Robot, developed by Samsung and Korea university. September 2006 (Global

Security)



Regarding legal and ethical concerns over these type of LAWs, the main issue has been whether

these lethal autonomous weapons can reliably discriminate between a combatant and a non-combatant

in warfare. Several nations and third parties have expressed this concern during conferences and

meetings regarding the topic of artificial intelligence for international security. Member-states, including

the US and China, have emphasized how modern-day AI technology in the military must ultimately have

some degree of human control, as the decision to kill an individual in warfare should be made by

humans themselves, not machines. A coalition of NGOs created campaigns such as 'Stop Killer Robots',

and researchers of AI from the private sector have expressed their concern for lethal autonomous

weapons, with an open letter signed by over 100 people affiliated with the AI industry. Those who have

signed it include many of the leading scientists and researchers in the world, such as Elon Musk, who

has mentioned that "artificial intelligence is our biggest existential threat".

Major Countries and Organizations Involved

China

The State Council of China released the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development

Plan" on the 20th of July, 2017. This is a policy that outlines the government's strategy to bolster China's

AI industry and to become the leading global center for AI development and innovation by 2030. A

coalition of educational institutes and the country's three leading companies in the tech industry, Baidu,

Alibaba and Tencent has received government support to promote AI research further. Despite China's

hefty investments in modernizing their military with AI and growing its multi-billion dollar industry, in April

2018, China has explicitly endorsed the call to ban fully autonomous lethal weapons, along with 25 other

countries calling to ban LAWs, in the UN Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) meeting in

Geneva, Switzerland. The Chinese government has expressed its concerns over the AI arms race, and

these sentiments have been echoed by the private sector, with the chairman of Alibaba noting that the

rise of artificial intelligence may possibly lead to a World War III.

United States of America

The United States of America, home to many of the world’s largest tech companies such as

Amazon and Google, has the largest AI industry worldwide. The US's Department of Defense (DOD)

has publicly released its artificial intelligence strategy on the 12th of February, 2019. It mentions how the

changing global landscape of the US requires the further development of AI for security purposes, but

"the technology will be deployed in respect to the nation's values". The DOD's chief information officer,

Dana Deasy, has noted that AI is necessary to "increase the prosperity" and "national security" of the

nation. Despite several instances where AI was proven to be unreliable, the DOD’s artificial intelligence

strategy does not address the 1988 Iran Air Flight incident or any statement regarding reliability. In



addition, the United States of America was one out of five countries that explicitly rejected the

negotiation of a new international law for lethal autonomous weapons in the UN CCW meeting in 2018.

The justified reason behind this was due to the "potential humanitarian and military benefits of the

technology behind LAWs", so banning it would be "premature". The US also emphasized how rigorous

testing and development can ensure that these weapons are used with respect to the International

Humanitarian Law (IHL), and can ultimately be used to benefit ethics in conflict rather than violating it.

Russia

Russia continues to develop weapons that are autonomous and include embedded AI

technology, such as Unmanned Undersea Vehicles (UUV) and Hypersonic missiles. From 2017

onwards, Russia's stance on militarizing AI has been clear - control on its development must be

maintained, and there needs to be a discussion about its usage and regulations, but there should be no

international limits for developing and deploying such weapons. Along with the United States of

America, Israel, France and the United Kingdom, Russia has explicitly stated not to create a new

international law for lethal autonomous weapons in the 2018 UN CCW meeting. Despite this, however,

in April 2019, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev mentioned that it is necessary to

"develop a comprehensive regulatory framework that would prevent the use of the specified [new]

technologies for undermining national and international security". Although Russia is still developing a

wide range of weapons with new AI technology, it also seems that creating international boundaries are

also an interest of the nation.

United Kingdom

Although the UK's government claims to "not possess fully autonomous weapons" with "no

intention of developing them,'' the United Kingdom has repeatedly declined proposals for setting

boundaries for their research and use since 2015. According to a report, the Ministry of Defence (MoD)

has funded several artificial intelligence programmes developing autonomous weapons, especially

military UAVs. By 2030, the MoD suggested that unmanned aircrafts will be able to independently locate

and engage targets with "appropriate proportionality and discrimination" to distinguish a civilian and a

combatant. The spokesperson for the MoD has also mentioned that lethal autonomous weapons will be

"under human control as an absolute guarantee of oversight, authority and accountability".

Timeline of Events

Date Description of event

1936

The first programmable computer was invented - arguably the starting point of

artificial intelligence.



February 1956 USS Mississippi (BB-41) successfully tests a computer-guided missile that can

correct variations of altitude and speed.

July 1988 USS Vincennes stationed at the Persian gulf destroys an Iranian commercial

airliner after false identifying it as a threat. 290 passengers were killed.

January 1994

The US government began funding the development of a UAV that can transmit

video footage in real-time via satellite link. By 2001, it has been upgraded to

carry missiles - killer drones are invented.

November 2002 The first Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) is deployed in Yemen

during the US war against terrorism.

September 2006

The Republic of Korea plans to install sentry robots in the demilitarized zone

(DMZ) bordering Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The sentries

can track targets, but they need human authority to fire.

June 2017

An annual 'AI for Good Global Summit' is hosted in Geneva, Switzerland by the

International Telecommunication Union (ITU) with representatives from several

nations.

November 2017

The UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (UN CCW) held their

first meeting with the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) to discuss

questions related to the emergence of LAWs.

April 2018

The UN CCW’s GGE hold a meeting for the second time in order to reiterate

points discussed in 2017, with a focus on autonomous weapons. 26 countries

have endorsed a ban on LAWs, including China, Austria and Colombia. Five

countries (France, U.K, U.S.A, Russia, Israel) have explicitly rejected a ban on

LAWs.

Relevant UN Treaties and Events

● International Humanitarian Law (IHL), 2005

● Study on Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, 12 October 2015

● AI for Good Global Summit hosted in Geneva, 7 June 2017

● Role of science and technology in the context of international security and disarmament,

4 December 2017 (A/RES/72/28)

● Impact of rapid technological change on the achievement of the Sustainable Development

Goals, 22 December 2017 (A/RES/72/242)



Previous Attempts to solve the Issue

As an announcement to the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on LAWs, UN Secretary-

General António Guterres has mentioned that "machines with the power and discretion to take lives

without human involvement are politically unacceptable, morally repugnant and should be prohibited by

international law". International conferences and meetings among member-states have been paramount

for expressing different opinions and suggesting potential ways to make international standards and

regulations. As of 2019, although there have been some resolutions addressing new technologies in

international security and disarmament, there is yet to be a comprehensive treaty or a resolution that

directly addresses international regulations for lethal autonomous weapons and artificial intelligence.

One of the many conferences held internationally is 'The AI for Good Global Summit' held

annually in Geneva, Switzerland. Since 2017, this summit was co-hosted by the International

Telecommunication Union (ITU), various UN Sister Agencies and other third-parties, with the goal of

sparking a dialogue between nations about AI. Representatives of AI in business, government and civil

societies from different countries gather to discuss pitches for projects, ways to advance the Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs) and to propose potential solutions to ongoing issues.

Figure 3: The third annual AI for Good Global Summit hosted in Geneva, Switzerland. May 2019. (UN News)

In November 2017, the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) had their first

meeting in Geneva, with AI researchers from countries such as Canada, Belgium and Australia

participating. Due to growing pressure from the public, the group decided to meet again from April 9 to

13 with the incentive to conclude their discussions from the meeting prior. This time, a total of 82

countries participated in comparing different definitions of LAWs, considering the human aspect of

control and projecting the rate of growth AI will have in the future. Despite some fruitful discussions,



many advocates have criticized that the UN CCW meetings are relatively slow compared to the rapid

improvement of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, country sovereignty has made these meetings legally

binding, only allowing member-states to propose recommendations that other nations may adopt.

Possible Solutions

It is important to note that finding the optimal solution for counteracting the misuse of artificial

intelligence is an enigmatic problem; as mentioned before, the growth of AI is sporadic and

unpredictable, so it is crucial to have an insight of the future, consider all perspectives, and avoid being

too dismissive of ideas.

One way to approach the issue would be to strive for a restriction on lethal autonomous

weapons. (NB: Assuming that the current status quo is maintained, a severe restriction on LAWs would

likely be unfeasible.) Before negotiating restrictions, reaching an internationally agreed-upon standard

for the definition of a LAW would be a good starting point for such an approach, as there is yet to be a

universally accepted set of criteria for them. Once nations agree on the standard, member-states need

to decide how much autonomy and human control is tolerable for conflict. This decision should mainly

be influenced by two factors - adherence with the International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the proven

reliability of AI technology discovered in the future. Careful consideration of both ethics and controlling

the autonomy of LAWs can help member-states reach a compromise and minimize consequences in

conflicts.

Another way to approach the issue would be to minimize limitations. This argument can be

justified with the claim that since AI technology is relatively new, focusing on creating limitations for it at

such an early stage would be premature and unideal. Incentivizing further research without restrictions

can potentially clarify the obscure aspects of AI and ultimately help researchers identify vulnerabilities

and find countermeasures to prevent mistakes. If this approach is successful, the repercussions of

international conflict can be immensely reduced, and governments can diminish the influence of private

firms as well. Perhaps after some intensive research in the future, restrictions can then be endorsed, but

once lethal autonomous weapons become well-established military technologies, it would be difficult to

reach a consensus for a limitation. By that time, AI technology would likely be so embedded in

international security and disarmament that it would become the new standard worldwide.



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Appendices

I. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAgXwUwQoPA - a brief video that explains the potential

threats from the growth of artificial intelligence for conflict.

II. https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0467.pdf - the International Humanitarian

Law (IHL) and Other Rules relating to the Conduct of Hostilities.

III. https://unoda-web.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com/wp-

content/uploads/assets/publications/more/drones-study/drones-study.pdf - the ‘Study on Armed

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles’.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAgXwUwQoPA

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0467.pdf

https://unoda-web.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/assets/publications/more/drones-study/drones-study.pdf

https://unoda-web.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/assets/publications/more/drones-study/drones-study.pdf

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