Internationell påverkan – hurpåverkas Ryssland, Europa

och Sverige

Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst Macro/Oil

Februar 2013 @ThinaSaltvedt

US shale gas

production – can

become a player on

the European

natural gas market

3

Proven natural gas reserves by the end of 2011, in %

Turkmenistan,11.7%

RussianFederation

Iran, 16%Qatar,12%

Saudi Arabia,4%

Norway, 1%

Rest of the world,30%

US,4%

21.4%

Source: BP

Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates large potential

4 • Source: EIA

1,069

1,225

624

1,042

1,404

396tcm

Europe and Asia emerge as main importers of gas

Anne Schult Ulriksen5 •

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

BC

M p

er a

nnum

Europe

Asia & Oceania

North America

Central & SouthAmerica

Middle East

Africa

importers

exporters

• Sources: GIIGNL 2011, EIA data, BP Statistical Review 2012, IEA and Nordea Markets

EU 27 import of natural gas - % of extra EU imports by country of origin

6 •

9.4%

0.7%

1.0%

1.1%

4.3%

11.0%

12.9%

26.6%

33.0%

11.8%

2.7%

1.0%

1.1%

3.2%

5.2%

14.2%

27.8%

33.0%

Other third countries

Libya

Egypt

Trinidad and Tobago

Nigeria

Qatar

Algeria

Norway

Russia

2010 2011

Source: Eurostat

7

SaudiArabia3.9%

Iran15.9%Iraq

1.7%

Oman0.5%

Yemen0.2%

Egypt1.1%

Qatar12%

UAE2.9%

Libya0.7%

Morocco

Kuwait6.1%

Algeria2.2%

Tunisia LebanonJordan

Bahrain

Syria0.1%

Source: BP and Nordea

Nigeria2.5%

Sudan &South Sudan

Natural gas reserves in the Middle East and North Africa, account for more than 40% of the world’s total- in % of global gas

EU 27 LNG imports by exporter – new competition from the US

8 •

0

25

50

75

100

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD

BC

M p

er a

nnum

Algeria Egypt Nigeria Norway Peru

Qatar Trinidad & Tobago Others LNG import level

Source: Eurostat, Eurogas, BP Statistical Review 2012, and Nordea Markets

9Source: EIA

Will Russian gas production be redirected after the shalerevolution hits the market?

FSU export to Europe is expected to decline

Remaining exports to Europe set to fallExports to other regions rising

10 •

• Chinese imports of Turkmen gas set to rise towards current capacity of 30BCMa, with additional string coming online late 2014E

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

BC

M p

er a

nnum

Net exports to Middle East Call from Baltic demandCall from Asian demand

450500550600650700750800

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

E20

13E

2014

E20

15E

BC

M p

er a

nnum

Indigenous consumptionNordea Base Case FSU ProductionNordea Base Case Exports to other regions

Sources: Rystad Energy, primary company websites, BP statistical review 2012, and Nordea Markets

The US shale revolution and increasing LNG exporttrigger new natural gas pricing policy in Europe

moving away from oil-linkedcontracts

11 •

Source: Reuters EcoWin

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130

25

50

75

100

125

150

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200 GBp per ThermBrent crude, blue

USD per barrel

Natural Gas, National Balancing Point, green

Source:PIRA, Reuters Ecowin and Nordea

Shale oil a necessity to counterbalanceMENA production risk

Oil price outlook – with high political risk is US shale production necessary to calm the market

13 •

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Oct11

Dec12

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec13Feb

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

128

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

128 USD/barrel

EU/US sanctions and South Sudan

Iran tests to shut Hormuz

Oil price timeline

Spain worries

USD/barrel

Nuclear talks

Nuclear talks II

EU agreement

Syria

Draghi

Iran/Israel

Euro crisis

QE3

Gaza Strip

EU embargo/US sanctions

Norway strike

Algeria

US election/ fiscal cliff

Tighter physical market

11/02/2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year2012E 118 109 109 109 1112013E 113 107 109 110 1102014E 110 111 111 112 111

14

Oil reserves in the Middle East and North Africa, account for more than half of the world’s oil reserves - in % of global oil reserves

SaudiArabia16.1%

Iran9.1%Iraq

8.7%

Oman0.3%Yemen

0.2%

Egypt0.3%

Qatar 1.5%

UAE5.9%

Libya2.9%

Morocco

Kuwait6.1%

Algeria0.7%

Tunisia LebanonJordan

Bahrain

Syria0.2%

Source: BP and Nordea

Nigeria2.3%

Sudan &South Sudan

0.3%

World’s top net oil exporters- only 2 politically stable

15 •

0 2 4 6 8 10

Saudi ArabiaRussiaIranUAE

KuwaitNigeria

IraqAngolaNorway

VenezuelaAlgeriaQatar

CanadaKazakhstanAzerbaijan

Million barrels per day

109

112109

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

4Q2002 2Q2004 4Q2005 2Q2007 4Q2008 2Q2010 4Q2011

US

D/

bb

l

mb

/d

Implied OPEC effective spare capacity and Brent price forecast

Effective spare Effective spare (f'cast) Brent 1.pos, rhs Brent (f'cast), rhs

OPEC spare capacity at uncomfortably low levels

Source: EIA and Nordea Markets

16 • Source: PIRA, IEA, Nordea Markets

‐1200

‐800

‐400

0

400

800

1200

1600

Thou

sand

 barrels per day 10 largest oil

exporter in theworld today mayhave a net exportdeficit in 2017 –who will cover thegap?

Changes in export volumes in 2017 from 2011

20253035404550556065 High production Low demand

ModerateLow

US oil import share will fall as domestic oil production,

shale gas production and energy efficiency will

increase

US oil import in % of demand

17 • Source: EIA

Russia increasinglydependent on oil and gas export

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Other exports

Natural gas

Exports, % of total exports

Oil products

Oil

Gas

Oil products

Oil

Other export

Estimated Chinese share of overseas equity in oil exportingcountries, Q1 2020, in total 1.36 mb/d

18 •

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Kazakhstan

Sudan

Venezuela

Angola

Syria

Russia

Tunisia

OthersIn per cent of total

Others: Nigeria, Indonesia, Peru, Ecuador, Oman, Colombia, Canada, Yemen, Cameroon, Gabon, Iraq. Azerbaijian, Uzbekistan

Motivation:

• Expand oil and gas reserves and production

• Diversify energy suppliesto avoid risks

• Become «internationalNOC»

• Develop an integratedsupply chain

• Gain technology know-howand streamline managerialcapacities

Source: IEA

Regional oil demand and net trade

19 • Source: IEA

Transportation sector accounts for more than 50% of global oilconsumption and this share is expected to increase with noreal competiton from other energy sources in the horizon

20 • Source: PIRA and Nordea Markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Transport Res/Comm. Industry Electric Gen.

1990 2010 2015 2025

In %

Sweden consumes only 0.4% of global energy consumption- effect of shale revolution will be limited

21 •

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oil Naturalgas

Coal Nuclearenergy

Hydroelectricity

Renew‐ables

Per cen

t 

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

In boe

 

Source: BP and Nordea Markets

Contact details:

Thina Margrethe Saltvedt

Senior Macro/Oil Analyst

Commodities Research

Nordea Markets

Phone: +47 22 48 79 93

Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75

Thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com

@ThinaSaltvedt

22 •

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