International Telecommunication Consultant CJBMI & ass 8th ......Growth in Mobile Connections 4.6...
Transcript of International Telecommunication Consultant CJBMI & ass 8th ......Growth in Mobile Connections 4.6...
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
1
C de JacquelotICT political [email protected]
8th International Workshop on Internet Charging and QoSTechnologiesICQT'13
Zurich October 14th 2013
E-Africa by the horizon 2020Ultra Wide Band in Africa ? A mainly political choice
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
2
summary1. An economical transformation for governments which have to move to
ICT, cash cow of the state budget driven by an E-economy.
2. Wide band? What for? How do consumers use it?
3. How to serve wide band on the short and middle term (2016) and ultra wide band by the horizon 2018-2020.
4. Impacts on infrastructures and the regional integration problem.
All the different points are illustrated by lessons based on the Programm for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) and country case studies.
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
3
Voice and Internet… every where in the world ?Growth in Mobile
Connections
4.6Billion
2009 20152011
6Billion
7.8Billion
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
5
High speed Internet : the XXI th century challenge3 main axis with horizons 2015-2030
INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNEMENT
INITIATIVES
NATIONAL AND REGIONALDIGITAL PROGRAMMES
Involve private sectorwhere it is possible
(profitable) and increase competition
Gov intervention if requiredbased on Competition
Reduce investmentas possible
FTTH
4G-LTE FTTH FOR NETWORK
ACCESS(NO
DUPLICATION)
FO FOR BACKBONE
AND BACKHAULBASED ON
COMPETITION
* Based on international benchmark
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
6
Source: Arthur D. Little, Exane BNP Paribas, Analysys Mason, IDATE
NGA includes wireline technologies providing ultra fast broadband (all FTTx technologies and DOCSIS 3.0)
North America65% 10-30%
Europe
Japan - Korea
35% 5-10%
80% >40%
Homes passed
Homes connected
Legend
World, 2010
North America and Asia-Pacific have taken the lead in new infrastructure deployments
U.S. (2012) :
• 8 M subs
• 22M Home passed
China (2011) :
• 38 M FTTx subs
FTTH Forecast :• 80 M homes passed end 2013
• 100 M homes passed end 2015
?
NGA networks- A challenge for developed countries
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
7
Potential new Digital divideAfrica vs rest of the world
Fixe market under monopoly
2G Mobile 3G
ADSL
Voice VoIp & BB internet
Digital Divide
20112000
?
VoiceXIX th -1996Market voice
over monopoly
Fixe Copper accessNetwork-Unbundling
2G Mobile 3GInternet mobile
Alternative infrastructure
Voice over IP
Competition
BB internet-ADSL FTTH
4G LTE
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
8
8
The new african challenge
e Africa 2020
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
9
The Vision: e-Africa 2020a Digital Africa
An Africa based on Information society and e-economy
Develop E-Government E-Commerce Social Networks & Email Telephony and video calls IPTV
To support: Economic development - GDP growth, jobs Social inclusion - elimination of isolationRegional Integration - trade, decision-making Equal participation on the global stage Improved peace & securityMeeting the Millennium Development Goals
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
10
1. Exploding growth in bandwidth requirements to respond to the demand from customers at: Local Level National level Regional level International level
The Context Impact on BB development on Trafficin developing countries
Exploding growth in bandwidth
New accessinfrastructure
Nationalinfrastructure
Regionalinfrastructure
Internationalinfrastructure
Increase connectivity (Infrastructure)Increase capacity ( Bandwidth)
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
11
Fixed Access infrastructure divideFixe line : North vs Sub sahara countries
Sub Sahara43%
MAU+ Egypt57%
Sub Sahara MAU+ Egypt
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sub Sahara MAU+ Egypt
Fixe density average North vs Sub sahara (2012)
source ITU-C de Jacquelot 2013
A context which impact the Broadband development model betweendeveloped and developing countries
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
12
Infrastructure and Voice market release Mobile before 2011
2 major issues on voice service prices: Interconnection –Call terminaison
Taxe on international call
Base Station
Base Station
Base StationController
Mobile Switching Centre
Base StationController
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Base Station Base Station
Base Station Base Station
Base StationController
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Mobile Switching Centre Mobile Switching Centre
Base StationController
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Base Station Base Station
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Base Station Base Station
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Base StationController
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C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
13
Mobile market in Africa
Mobile market in Africa competition status
Country w ith duopoly
32%
Country w ith 3 ou more59%
Country w ith Monopoly
9%
2G vs 3G Countries in Africa
2G Countries36%
3G Countries64%
3G data services : status of competition
Countries w ith 3 G data monopoly
38%
Countries w ith 3 G data competition
62%
A market in progress
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
14
Africa 2G-3G
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International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
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Internet Users in Africa
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International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
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Political aspects of ICT development in Africa Political aspects of ICT development in Africa
ICT will become an engine to ICT will become an engine to e e economyeconomy
Has been ICT ICT in a new world
How to success this challenge ?
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International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
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International access
Source http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/ & http://www.cablemap.info/ October 2013
International bandwidth : from Desert to Tsunami
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
18
International traffics : Africa and Voice VS IP (Libya case)
Ip traffic is growing under customers’ demand and voice traffic becomes residual
Africa International IP bandwith
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
source Africabandwidth-Pidastudy-BB study2013
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Mbps
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
International bandwidth IP vs voice (Libya case)
IP Bandwitdth Mbps Voice bandwidth Mbps source ICT Ministry 2013
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
19
Internet growth’s indicator: ASN- World vs Africa
Source Data from RIR websites as of: Sun Oct 06 2013A growth more important than is the rest of the world but still gap exists
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
20
Who is the African consumer ? How is he connected ?
E goverment
?
Economic development
Accès au Savoir
World integration
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
21
A draft of response loaded of lessons…
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TOP 7 of Web average access for some african countries
source http://w w w .alexa.com Oc
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TOP WEB Worldwide overview: some countries vs World
Swiss Developping countries South Korea World
Africa consumer = European consumer
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
22
What are the generated traffics ? European case
Week EndResidential traffic
In Europe Residential BB traffic is the heavy one
Residential traffic
Migration from B & R traffics to pure
residential traffic
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
23
What are the generated traffics ? South Africa case
Week end
End ofworking hours
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
24
What are the generated traffics ? Nigeria per Submarine cable access
Mainone
Glo1
End ofworking hours
Week end
Two cases very different from European model …
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
25
What are the generated traffics ? North African consumer case
Former allocated Bandwidth
new allocated Bandwidth
Bandwidthoverflow
Bandwidthincrease 33 %Web Video(Youtube,
dailymotion,..)
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
26
Attack of the Mole at Nairobi
What are the generated traffics ? Kenya 2 week ago
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
27
Asymmetry on International bandwidth (Egypt Case)
International IP traffic traffic In and out going (Mbps) Egypt case
Incoming IP traff ic 77%
Outgoing Ip traff ic; 23%
source MICT October 2013
which corresponds to an Asymemetry of demand which have economic impact
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
28
How to connect african consumers?
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
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450 Gbits (56 %)160 000 000 inhabitants (16 %)
350 Gbits (44 %)850 000 000 inhabitants (84%)
Digital Digital dividedivide NorthNorth--SouthSouth
Donnée décembre 2011
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
30
200 Actors
GLO-1
EASSY
WACS
SEACOMMainOne
ACE
Others
Others
Reach the sub marine cable station to have access to International bandwidth
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
31
International connectivity :Ghana case
Globalcommobile
GlobalcomSub marine cable
Level3
Telia soneraInternational
MainOne CableMillicomTigo
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
32
International connectivity : Ghana IXP ecosystem
MainoneCable
Ghana IXP
Ghana have 37 ASN4 are peering
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
33
International connectivity :Tunisia IXP-ATI
ATITunisia backbone
Interoute
Telecom ItaliaSparkle
Level 3Sat3
Orange Tunisie
Peering
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International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
34
International connectivity :Tunisia IXP-ATI (2)
Source ATI October 10 2013
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International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
35
Reduce international bandwidth usage -IXP Africa October 2013
The usage of international bandwidth has an important impact on the end user price… How to reduce this point?
Intra country traffic shall stay in the country IXP Peering
Intra regional traffics shall transit via terrestrial infrastructure as possible Regional infrastructure Regional peering
Implement Cache At IXP node Per operator/ISP
Return of the field < 20-25%
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
36
Bandwidth price vs Bandwidth : Financial approach
Costs of Mbps/month regarding bandwith payload per SM cable
$0
$500
$1 000
$1 500
$2 000
$2 500
$3 000
$3 500
$4 000
$4 500
2,5 Gbits 10 Gbits 50 Gbits 100 Gbits 300 Gbits 500 Gbits 1 000 Gbits
Band
wid
th co
st
SAT3 Seacom TEAMs EASSy GLO1 MainOne Wacs ACE
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
37
Broadband density
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
14,00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
Tunisia BB Market development: global and per technology
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
mb
er o
f B
road
ban
d a
cces
s
BB access Adsl 3G data
Broadband access: Tunisia caseBroadband access: Tunisia case
International bandwidth per BB access
0
10
20
30
40
5060
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Kb
ps/
BB
acc
ess
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
38
Broadband access: Tunisia caseBroadband access: Tunisia case
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
39
Impact of backbone/Backhaul investment on Bandwidth cost
Cout total du Projet (CAPEX)
$2 661 262
annual Monthly
Reimbursment (Capex) $266 126 $22 177
Maintenance (opex) $106 450 $8 871Global cots
(opex+Capex)$372 577 $31 048
Financial analysis
Cost of IP Mbps/Monthly vs traffic
0 €
5 €
10 €
15 €
20 €
155 Mbps
300 Mbps
1Gbps
2,5 Gbits
10 Gbits
Bandwidth
Mb
ps/
mo
ntl
y $
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
40
Indicator of BB quality in some African Countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00%
Density of BB access
Ban
dw
idth
per
BB
acc
ess
(Kb
ps)
BB density vs bandwidth per BB access…an indicator of quality ?
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
41
Infrastructure Driving Factors of Network Congestion in Africa
Value Chain of internet in Africabecause 3Gbecause 3G--LTE Fixe data become reference technologyLTE Fixe data become reference technology
to support BB servicesto support BB services
WorldwideTechnicaleconomic
3$< < 5$
3 G /L T E
3 G
3 G
F O i n f r a .1 0 G e
3 G /L T E
3 G
3 G
F O i n f r a .1 0 G e
AccessTechnicaleconomic
Radio vs TerrestrialinfrastructureLicence cost
Spectrum cost
BackhaulTechnicaleconomic
Sub marine cableTechnicaleconomic
20$< < 3000$
backboneTechnicaleconomic
National and regional backbone
NationalAnd
Regional
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
42
Developing effective and sustainable policies
A large number of exogenous factorsare impacting on QoS and pricing of Internet,
Infrastructure access is one of the major in Africa
Solutions?
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
43
Broadband access MAU + Egypt (Global et per technology)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ADSL 3G Global Broadband access
Quality of internet in Africa
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
44
Quality of internet in Africa
IP international bandwidth per BB access (Kbps/BB access)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Kbps
Tunisia Morocco Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
45
Africa IP traffic: Historical and projection
Africa IP international Traffic: Historical and projection
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
7% T
unisi
a10
% T
unis
ia
10%
Hig
ht (1
20Kb
ps//B
B a)
Year-Density
Mbps
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
46
Smart pricing Value ChainAfrican case (4) ((Tunisia Case)
Value Chain of internet in Africabecause 3Gbecause 3G--LTE Fixe data become reference technologyLTE Fixe data become reference technology
to support BB servicesto support BB services
Keltra-220Gbps
Hannibal3.2Tbps
SEA-ME-WE-4
1.28Tbps
Keltra-220Gbps
Hannibal3.2Tbps
SEA-ME-WE-4
1.28Tbps
3G /L T E
3 G
3G
F O in fra .1 0 G e
3G /L T E
3 G
3G
F O in fra .1 0 G e
AccessTechnicaleconomic
Backhaul/backboneTechnicaleconomic
Sub marine cableTechnicaleconomic
WorldwideTechnicaleconomic
3$< < 5$20$< < 3000$country country
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
47
MERCI
OBRIGADO
THANK YOU
Muchas gracias
Grazie mille
شكرا
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
48
Round table
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
49
Driving Factors of Network Congestion and economic aspectsAfrican case (1)
During 2000-201x Years, the transposition of Mobile vs Fixe by the African consumers is a fact
The emergency of broadband in Africa will be (is) based on the usage’s transposition of Internet 3G (4G) data vs fixe technologies ( Adsl, Coax,…)…
For exemple 3G IP data traffic of Tunisia is equivalent of 50 % of France one
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
50
Driving Factors of Network CongestionAfrican case (3) Mauritania Case study
57
101 9970 73 71
55 53 5633 22
384
292
170 154 142 120 11780
37 25 17 0
100
200
300
400
500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
min
utes
par
lign
e et
par
moi
s
mill
ions
de
min
utes
Volume total de trafic et usage (fixe)
Volume de trafic(M min)
Usage(min / ligne / mois)Source : rapports
d'activité ARE
2 198 790 977 9775 876 6 530 5 593 5 5931 364 13 041 17 971
169 496
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Nom
bre
d'ab
onne
men
ts
Parc Internet
RTC LS ADSL Mobile
Source : ARE
75 159 245 421 527 7571 168
1 6172 283
2 73135
45 4755
49 4955
64 6875
01020304050607080
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
min
utes
par
lign
e et
par
moi
s
mill
ions
de
min
utes
Volume total de trafic et usage (mobile)
Volume de trafic(M min)
Usage(min / ligne / mois)
Source : rapports d'activité ARE
IP international bandwidth
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mbps
Internet 3G data Impact
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
51
Driving Factors of Network CongestionAfrican case (3)
Quality of internet in AfricaIP international bandwidth per BB access (Kbps/BB access)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Kbps
Tunisia Morocco Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya
Broadband access MAU + Egypt (Global et per technology)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ADSL 3G Global Broadband access
C de Jacquelot ([email protected])
International Telecommunication Consultant
CJBMI & ass
52
Driving Factors of Network CongestionAfrican case (4) ((Tunisia Case)
Value Chain of internet in Africabecause 3Gbecause 3G--LTE Fixe data become reference technologyLTE Fixe data become reference technology
to support BB servicesto support BB services
Keltra-220Gbps
Hannibal3.2Tbps
SEA-ME-WE-4
1.28Tbps
Keltra-220Gbps
Hannibal3.2Tbps
SEA-ME-WE-4
1.28Tbps
3G /L T E
3 G
3G
F O in fra .1 0 G e
3G /L T E
3 G
3G
F O in fra .1 0 G e
AccessTechnicaleconomic
Backhaul/backboneTechnicaleconomic
Sub marine cableTechnicaleconomic
WorldwideTechnicaleconomic
3$< < 5$20$< < 3000$country country