International passenger railway connections in the BSR: situation and

development possibilities

Jūrmala, 4.9.2008

Artūrs Caune

CitiesPopulationEconomyRailways

General trends

• Population decrease except Scandinavia and Finland

• High GDP per capita and low growth rates vs. Low GDP per capita and high growth

• Total length of railway lines decreases, significant decrease in Poland, Germany, Sweden

• Increase in passenger flows, except for Latvia, Lithuania, Germany and Poland

General trends - 2

• Cities above 25000: population decrease by 2,9%

• In important regional centres and MEGAs: decrease even more significant: -6,1% and -5,7 respectively

• International railway service available for 15...40% of the population in the BSR living in cities above 25000

Railway infrastructure and service

• 1435mm: shorter routes / higher speeds

• 1520/1524mm: average route length 680km, average speeds 4,5% below average

• Combined gauge routes: 1412km, speeds 8,5% below average

• Average service speed in route: ~ 60km/h

• Highest service speeds:

Berlin-Warszawa: Copenhagen-Stockholm, Helsinki-Moscow, Malmo-Copenhagen, Copenhagen-Goeteborg

• Berlin-Hamburg: 170km/h

Railway infrastructure and serviceNumber of routes (<2000 km) and average speed

37,6 3943,6

58,5

37,2

63,5

37,8

25

0

34,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0-20

0 km

201-

400

km

401-

600

km

601-

800

km

801-

1000

km

1001

-120

0 km

1201

-140

0 km

1401

-160

0 km

1601

-180

0 km

1801

-200

0 km

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Number of routes Speed (km/h) Linear (Speed (km/h))

Slow routes

• Berlin-Kaliningrad• Gdansk/Gdyna-

Kaliningrad• Warszawa –

St.Petersburg• Tallinn-St.Petersburg

• SPEEDS BY 30-40 km/h

• If compared by istance on air – even considerably slower speeds!

Competion with air traffic?

• Even in routes between 200 and 400 km travelling by plane is 2 times faster

• In routes above 600 km travelling by plane is from 4,3 to 5,7 times faster...

• Routes: strings or bananas or even snake?

• Distance on air between end stations of the route – 1,5...2,2 times shorter than the route

Challenges or realistic tasks?

• Link the city-regions on both sides of the border by fast train (sucess story Copenhagen – Malmo): Why not Helsinki and Tallinn; Berlin – Szczecin?

• Link MEGAs with 1435mm gauge:Helsinki, Turku, St.Petersburg, Tallin, Riga, Vilnius, Minsk

Challenges or realistic tasks?

• Improve service speeds up to 100 km/h in shorter routes up to 400km

• Improve service speeds in longer routes up to 150 km/h (high – speed railways)

• How? Strings not snakes; upgrade from speeds of XIX century to the ones of XXI century