Challenges on New Technologies Challenges on New Technologies For Sustainable Energy SystemFor Sustainable Energy System Tech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTITech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTI

Challenges on New Technologies Challenges on New Technologies For Sustainable Energy SystemFor Sustainable Energy System Tech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTITech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTI

　　　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　　 Jūrmala (Latvia) 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　　 11-14 May, 2005

Morihiro KURUSHIMAProfessor

Toyo University / NEDO,JAPANToyo University / NEDO,JAPAN 1

　　

　 Fragile Energy Supply Structure

- Scarce domestic energy resources- Low ratio of self-supply of energy compared to other major countries- High dependency on oil from the Middle East

CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Energy in Japan in Comparison to the WorldEnergy in Japan in Comparison to the World

( ％ )

19.7

70.5

44.636.5

75.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

J apan U.S.A. Fance Germany England

Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy in Major Countries (2000)

Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”

86%

26%

37%

13%5%

48%40% 37% 39%

34%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

J apan U.S.A. France Germany England

Dependency on theMiddle EastDependency on oil

Dependency　on　the　Middle　East　for　Oil　and　Dependency　on　Oil　in　the　World　

(2000-2001)　

Source: BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas Information (2002)

（％）

Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”

Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major Countries (2000)

J apan U.S.A. France Germany UKPrimary energy supply(oil conversion: mtoe ) 525 2300 257 340 233

Coal 18 24 6 24 16Oil 51 39 34 39 36

Natural gas 12 24 14 21 38Nuclear power 16 9 42 13 10Hydropower 1.4 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.2

Recyclable energy, etc. 2 4 2 3 2

Japan’s New and Renewable Energy IndicatorsJapan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators

4

Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI

FY2001FY2010

Indicators

Photovoltaic 110,000 kl(452MW)

1,180,000 kl(4,820 MW)

Wind 127,000 kl(312MW)

1,340,000 kl(3,000 MW)

Waste1,250,000 kl(1,110MW)

5,520,000 kl(4,170 MW)

Biomass 48,000 kl(71MW)

340,000 kl(330 MW)

Solar 820,000 kl 4,390,000 kl

Waste 45,000 kl 140,000 kl

Biomass ー 670,000 kl

Unused energy(incl. Snow-ice)

44,000 kl 580,000 kl

Black liquor and scrap wood, etc.

4,460,000 kl 4,940,000 kl

6,900,000 kl(1.2%)

19,100,000 kl(approx. 3%)

Total(Share of total primary energy

supply)

Ele

ctri

c P

ow

erT

her

mal

En

ergy

Uti

lizat

ion

FY2001FY2010

Indicators

Total New Energy 7 million kl 19 million kl

Hydropower 21 million kl 20 million kl

Geothermal 1 million kl 1 million kl

Grand Total(Share of total primary energy

supply)

29 million kl(4.9%)

40 million kl(approx. 7%)

New Energy Renewable Energy

Supply Side

Cost Competitiveness of NRE

Power generation cost of new energy (Unit: JPY/kWh)

147~2111~129~1118~249~147346~66Power

generation cost

Small- and

medium- scale

Large- scale

Small- and

medium- scale

Large- scale

Non-residential

Residential

Small- and medium-

scale hydropower

Biomass power

Waste powerWind powerPhotovoltaic power

Type

Source : Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (July 2001), and others

Power generation cost by power source (Unit: JPY/kWh)

10.26.56.45.9Power generation cost

Oil-firedCoal-firedLNG-firedNuclear powerType

Source : Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee of the Advisory

Committee for Energy (December 1999)

5

3700

1020 930 840 750 710

1040

20001700

1200

209

24 31 4360

91

133

330

453

637

0

2000

4000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

\ 58/ kWh\ 52/ kWh \ 49/ kWh

\ 65/ kWh\ 71/ kWh\ 72/ kWh

\ 82/ kWh

\ 120/ kWh

\ 140/ kWh

\ 260/ kWh

Cost of residential PV system(Unit: 1,000JPY)

Applications of PV powergeneration (Unit: MW)

Trial period Diffusion project

Power generationcost per 1kWh

Installation costper 1kW

PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan

Period of market creation Period of independence and expansion in the market Period of market maturity

Market independence

Development of new products

Creation of initial demand

　　　 ： Market scale

この時期が重要This period is important.

Synergistic effect of mass production and cost reduction

Cannot be sold without support

Technical development

▪ High cost ▪ Competition with existing products ▪ Construction of a total energy system ▪ A lack of social awareness

Creation of Initial Demand

6

Dif

fusi

on D

iffi

cult

y L

evel

Japan’s Position in Steel IndustryJapan’s Position in Steel IndustryComparison　of　Unit　Energy　Consumption　in　Integrated　Steelworks

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

JAPAN KOREA EU USA CHINA

100105

110

120

150(2003, indexes with Japan set at 100)

Source: Based on dialogue among JISF, Korea Iron and Steel Association, China Iron and Steel Association etc.

Non-annexI

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2010 2020

Non-annex I

Future global CO2 emissions

Em

issi

ons

(Mil

lion

t-C

)

Japan　5%

Russia6%

India　4%

Germany4%

Others44%

China13%

USA24%

Global CO2 emissions in 1999

Annex IAnnex I

The reason Why ? The reason Why ? CO2 Emissions in the worldCO2 Emissions in the world

1 9

PV Power Supply Project in Mongolia with NEDO-Japan & Sharp Co.

Power　plant　:　100kW

Hospital　:　40kWVillage　office　:　10kW

Communication　center　:　10kW

School　:　40kW

Noyon Soum, Mongolia

PV: 200kWPower Distribution:

Hospital / Communication Center:24hrs/day 128 Households:16 hrs/day

1 10

PV panels

Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

Micro-hydro power generator

Batteries

Micro-hydro power generator

Micro-hydro: 41.2kWPV1: 30kWPV2-6: 7.5kW

Power distribution:200 households, 6 hrs/day21

PV Power Supply Project with Micro-hidro

in Cambodia

PV Power Supply Project with Micro-hidro

in Cambodia

1 11

Latin America 13

Middle East Africa 　 23 (9%)

Mongolia 1

South West Asia 14

Tonga 1

Eastern Europe 55(21%)

China 47(18%)

ASEAN 59(23%)

260 F/S47 Countries

NEDO’s F/S on CDM/JI Projects NEDO’s F/S on CDM/JI Projects

in 47 Countriesin 47 Countries (FY1998-2004) (FY1998-2004)

Central Asia17

Russia 30(12%)

1 12

NEDO’S JI Activity 　　 in Kazakhstan　NEDO’S JI Activity 　　 in Kazakhstan　 Fuel flow　

Heat

Power

Fuel （ Natural

Gas ）

Fuel （ Natural

Gas ） Steam turbines　

Steam turbines　

Power generation

boilers

Power generation

boilers

Hot water boilers　

Hot water boilers　

Thermal Thermal

Power Power

122.

Heat Recovery Steam Generation System

Heat Recovery Steam Generation System

Gas turbineGas turbine

Current　condition

Model　Project　 Annual CO2 emissions in baseline case 192,000　 t-CO2 /y Annual CO2 emissions in project case 　 130,000 t-CO2 /y 　　 Annual Emissions Reduction 62,000 　 t-CO2/y

1 13

Projects With Industries In Mexico and

Thailand

Japan AMA

Export (200 vehicles)

Monitoring, Construct. etc.

Traffic Improvement

Project in Bangkok

Mexico STE

Mitsubishi Electric Corp.

1 14

EnergyPlant CO2

Separation

Liquefaction Solidification

Bio Factory

（ Pipeline Transportation ）

（ Heat Transportation ）

Tank

Tank

Geological Segregation

Biomass Methane Fermentation

Fuel Cell

Concept of Sustainable Energy System with Concept of Sustainable Energy System with Geological SequestrationGeological Sequestration

1 15

From 1997(NEDO, RITE)Joint project by Japan, US, Canada and Norway

Coal bed

　

CH 4

　

CH 4

CO2CH4

CO 2

CO2 fixation Substitution

Contribution to IPCC Special

Report

Ocean Sequestration

From 2000(RITE)Nagaoka-shi, Niigata Prefecture

Sequestration in an Aquifer

CO2 Sequestration Projects in JapanCO2 Sequestration Projects in Japan

From 2002(KANSO, J-COAL)

Sequestration in a coal bed

1 16

Concept of Sustainable Bio-Factory with Concept of Sustainable Bio-Factory with Geological SequestrationGeological Sequestration

1 17

Outline of the CTIOutline of the CTI

Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany,Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Norway, UK, USA, Japan and Finland Norway, UK, USA, Japan and Finland

Chair : Mr.Sakamoto/METI,JAPAN Vice Chair : Mr.Holts/US.DOE,

Mr.Carrington/UK.DTIP.Manager : Prof.Kurushima

• Seminars and Symposia Technology Needs Assessments Training Courses Information Dissemination Working with UNFCCC/EGTT, UNIDO, UNDP etc.

1 18

“CTI/Industry Joint Seminar on Technology Diffusion” Series

 

　Warsaw(11-12　May　

2000)

Bratislava(14-16　July　

1999)

(19-20　May　1998)

　San　Salvador(27-28　Mar.　

2000)

　Victoria　Falls(17-19　Mar.　

1999)

　Jakarta(4-5　Feb.　2004)

　Madrid(18-19　Sep.　1999)

Beiging

( 27-28 Sep. 2002 )Vienna

(28-29　Oct.　2003)

Cebu(14-15 Jan. 2000)

Vienna

(28-29　Oct.　2004)

Mexico City　(18-19　Feb.　

2004)

New Delhi　(11-12　March　

2004)

Beiging

( 24-25 Feb. 2005 )

1 19

CTI

Gov. /Gov.Org.

Bank

Coordination

Basic SurveyFS/Project Formation

Industry

Project Implementation

Academia/Univ.

“ “World Tech. Bank for Energy & Environment”World Tech. Bank for Energy & Environment”

1 20

CTI

MauritiusGov.

SADAC S.African D. Bank

Preliminary Study

Basic Survey FS/Project Formation

Industry

Project Implementation

NRELUS-DOE

NEDOJapan

With Gov, International Org, Bank and Industry With Gov, International Org, Bank and Industry for Energy & Environment”for Energy & Environment”

1 21

PV R&D Scenario for 2010For Our Common FutureFor Our Common FutureFor Our Common FutureFor Our Common Future

Gov. Initiative with 3Players for 3E

Sustainable Sustainable SocietySociety

Energy

EnvironmentEconomy

Industry

Academia

Financial

1 22

Thank you for your attention.Thank you for your attention.

25

3/25/2005 ～ 9/25/2005