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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCE RESEARCH, IJOAR .ORG ISSN 2320-9097 1

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International Journal of Advance Research, IJOAR .org Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2014, Online: ISSN 2320-9097

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SEASONAL RAINFALL

EFFECT IN CALABAR, CROSS RIVER STATE, NIGERIA

UDOIMUK, A. B.B, OSANG, J. E.A,, ETTAH, E. B.A , ,USHIE, P. O. A, OFFIONG, N. E.A , ALOZIE, S. I.

Cross River University of Technology, Calabar NIGERIA. EMAIL: [email protected] CONTACT: 07034653641 A.DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS, CROSS RIVER UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY CALABAR, NIGERIA B.DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS, UNIVERSITY OF CALABAR ,CALABAR. C. DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS, ABIA STATE UNIVERSITY, UTURU, ABIA STATE, NIG.

ABSTRACT

Calabar has been experiencing yearly severe flooding and landslides within and around the metropolis with substantial costs, in terms of loss of lives and destruction of properties. This paper is focus on the empirical study of seasonal rainfall effect in Calabar, Nigeria. Data was gathered through a well designed and articulated oral and written questionnaires, direct and first-hand observation of the environment, and comprehensive interview sessions were carried out with randomly selected Landlords . A total of thirteen thousand (13,000) questionnaires were randomly distributed evenly to some Landlords in twenty six (26) streets of the study Area from January 2012 to October 2013. Twelve thousand four hundred and eigty two (12,482) valid questionnaire were received back. Twelve thousand (12,000) of the inhabitant Landlords reported that, they were not affected negatively. Table 2 shows the total number of buildings that were negatively affected due to flooding in the Area. While rainfall data from 1993– 2012 were collected from the Nigeria Meteorological Station(NIMET), Calabar. A simple descriptive analysis was used. The results among others show that, rainfall is one of the Climatic factor that can indicate Climate change and has created ecological destabilization and altered the pattern of the vegetation belt especially in the flood prone areas highlighted, which includes Atimbo, Edim otop, Ekpo Abasi, Ndidem Usang Iso, Goldie , Target, Ebito, Big Qua, Edibe Edibe, Atamunu, Akim Road, Otop Abasi and Ikot Eyo by Paliamentary Road (Calabar). The rainfall pattern has also enhanced wind erosion/desertification, soil erosion and coastal flooding in Calabar. With these impacts, the paper therefore recommends some adaptive and mitigation measures that could help to revert the current situation otherwise properties and lives will continue to be lost.

Keywords: rainfall pattern, climate change, flooding, vegetation belts, erosion, shift and land slides

mailto:[email protected]



INTRODUCTION

Calabar has been experiencing yearly severe flooding and landslides within and around the

metropolis with substantial costs, in terms of loss of lives and destruction of properties caused by

rainfall. Rainfall is a climate parameter that affects the way and manner man lives. It affects every

facet of the ecological system, flora and fauna inclusive. Hence, the study of rainfall is important and

cannot be over emphasized (Obot et al 2010), (Osang et al 2013). A climatologist, Prof. Imo Ekpoh,

has said that the combination of high temperatures due to global warming and high humidity of the

humid tropical climate are responsible for recurring flood in Calabar, the capital of Cross River State

(Udo et al 2002). Researchers seems to be more comfortable with working on such parameters as

total rainfall, extreme intensity, extreme frequency, extreme event and total rain days when dealing

with rainfall data. Though the proportional contribution from extreme events to the total rain fall

depends on the method used to calculate the index. An increase in the number of rain days often

increases with total rainfall and extreme frequency (Udo et al 2002), (Obot et al 2010), (Osang et al

2013).

Water is health and health is water. Humans rely on water for everything and thus water is one

of the essential resources for human survival ( Agbor et all 2013). The main source of water is rain.

Rain is liquid water in the form of droplets that have condensed from atmospheric water vapor and

then precipitated—that is, become heavy enough to fall under gravity. Rain is a major component of

the water cycle and is responsible for depositing most of the fresh water on the Earth. It provides

suitable conditions for many types of ecosystem, as well as water for hydroelectric power plants and

crop irrigation ( Norman, 2008).

The major cause of rain production is moisture moving along three-dimensional zones of

temperature and moisture contrasts known as weather fronts. If enough moisture and upward motion

is present, precipitation falls from convective clouds (those with strong upward vertical motion) such

as cumulonimbus (thunder clouds) which can organize into narrow rain bands (Udo et al 2002). In

mountainous areas, heavy precipitation is possible where upslope flow is maximized within windward

sides of the terrain at elevation which forces moist air to condense and fall out as rainfall along the

sides of mountains. On the leeward side of mountains, desert climates can exist due to the dry air

caused by down slope flow which causes heating and drying of the air mass. The movement of the

monsoon trough, or intertropical convergence zone, brings rainy seasons to savannah climes (Paul,

2004).



Climate classification systems such as the Köppen climate classification system use average

annual rainfall to help differentiate between differing climate regimes. Rainfall is measured using rain

gauges. Rainfall amounts can be estimated by weather radar. Rain is also known or suspected on other

planets, where it may be composed of methane, neon, sulfuric acid or even iron rather than water

(Norman, 2008), (Udo et al 2002). Raindrops have sizes ranging from 0.1 to 9 millimetres mean

diameter, above which they tend to break up. Smaller drops are called cloud droplets, and their shape

is spherical. As a raindrop increases in size, its shape becomes more oblate, with its largest cross-

section facing the oncoming airflow. Large rain drops become increasingly flattened on the bottom,

like hamburger buns; very large ones are shaped like parachutes, Contrary to popular belief, their

shape does not resemble a teardrop(Emmanuel et al 2009), (Alistair ,2003). The biggest raindrops on

Earth were recorded over Brazil and the Marshall Islands in 2004 — some of them were as large as 10

millimetres. The large size is explained by condensation on large smoke particles or by collisions

between drops in small regions with particularly high content of liquid water.( Paul, 2004). Rain drops

associated with melting hail tend to be larger than other rain drops.( Norman, 2008).

Intensity and duration of rainfall are usually inversely related, i.e., high intensity storms are

likely to be of short duration and low intensity storms can have a long duration (Udo et al 2002),

(Ryan, 2005). Deviations can occur for small droplets and during different rainfall conditions. The

distribution tends to fit averaged rainfall, while instantaneous size spectra often deviate and have been

modeled as gamma distributions. (Houze et. al. 1979). The distribution has an upper limit due to

droplet fragmentation (Emmanuel et al 2009). In view with (Afangideh et al 2013),

Rainfall intensity (mm) = annual rainfall amount (mm)

annual rainfall duration (days)

Raindrops impact at their terminal velocity, which is greater for larger drops due to their

larger mass to drag ratio. At sea level and without wind, 0.5 millimetres drizzle impacts at 2 metres

per second (4.5 mph) (2 m/s or 6.6 ft/s), while large 5 millimetre drops impact at around 9 metres per

second (20 mph) (9 m/s or 30 ft/s). Rain falling on loosely packed material such as newly fallen ash

can produce dimples that can be fossilized (Westhuizen et al 1989). The air density dependence of the

maximum raindrop diameter together with fossil raindrop imprints has been used to constrain the

density of the air 2.7 billion years ago (Som et al 2013). The sound of raindrops hitting water is

caused by bubbles of air oscillating underwater(Andrea et al 1993; Rankin 2005),



Rainfall is a climate parameter that affects the way and manner man lives. It affects every facet of the

ecological system, flora and fauna inclusive. Hence, the study of rainfall is important and cannot be

over emphasized, (Osang et al 2013), (Obot et al 2010), (Ewona 2009). The study of rainfall

distribution is also important in rain harvesting, agricultural production especially plant production.

The seasonality of rainfall invariably affects crop and animal production. Storage of agricultural

products, architectural designs, building and constructional, field work and tourism also depend on the

seasonality of rainfall. The frequency and intensity of rainfall in a particular season results in seasonal

floods (Obot et al 2010), (Osang et al 2013,).

EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON AGRICULTURE

Precipitation, especially rain, has a dramatic effect on agriculture. All plants need at least some

water to survive, therefore rain (being the most effective means of watering) is important to

agriculture. While a regular rain pattern is usually vital to healthy plants, too much or too little rainfall

can be harmful, even devastating to crops. Drought can kill crops and increase erosion, while overly

wet weather can cause harmful fungus growth. Plants need varying amounts of rainfall to survive.

For example, certain cacti require small amounts of water, while tropical plants may need up to

hundreds of inches of rain per year to survive. Groundwater is a major source of water supply in the

developed and developing countries which is caused by rain (Agbor et al 2013).

In areas with wet and dry seasons, soil nutrients diminish and erosion increases during the wet season.

Animals have adaptation and survival strategies for the wetter regime. The previous dry season leads

to food shortages into the wet season, as the crops have yet to mature. Developing countries have

noted that their populations show seasonal weight fluctuations due to food shortages seen before the

first harvest, which occurs late in the wet season. Rain may be harvested through the use of rainwater

tanks; treated to potable use or for non-potable use indoors or for irrigation. Excessive rain during

short periods of time can cause flash floods (Udo et al 2002).

EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON CULTURE

Cultural attitudes towards rain differ across the world. In temperate climates, people tend to be

more stressed when the weather is unstable or cloudy, with its impact greater on men than women.

Rain can also bring joy, as some consider it to be soothing or enjoy the aesthetic appeal of it. In dry

places, such as India, or during periods of drought, rain lifts people's moods. In Botswana, the

Setswana word for rain, "pula", is used as the name of the national currency, in recognition of the

economic importance of rain in this desert country. Several cultures have developed means of dealing

with rain and have developed numerous protection devices such as umbrellas and raincoats, and

diversion devices such as gutters and storm drains that lead rains to sewers. Many people find the



scent during and immediately after rain pleasant or distinctive. The source of this scent is petrichor, an

oil produced by plants, then absorbed by rocks and soil, and later released into the air during rainfall.

EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON BUILDINGS DUE TO FLOODING:

Flooding may follow heavy rainfall, although floods can also follow from tidal surges and rapid

snow melt. Flooding of low-lying lands caused by rise in sea level secondary to melting of the ice

caps is also likely to happen. Of all the types of natural disaster world-wide, flooding is the

commonest and can cause enormous damage and financial loss. No one in the Nigeria will be unaware

of the floods of recent years and the suggestion that flood events are likely to increase in future

(Hunter 2003), (Obot et al 2010). The health effects of flooding can be divided into those associated

with the acute event and those arising after the flood has resolved. The main acute threat to health is

drowning, in theNigeria, deaths from drowning as a result floods is high. A high number people are

killed each year by floods, although most concerns about subsequent health risk tends to focus on

infectious disease, the evidence is relatively scant, at least for developed countries (Obot et al 2010),

(Udo et al 2002). The impact that heavy rainfall on the genesis of outbreaks of disease associated

with drinking water systems has already been discussed. In general these outbreaks have been

associated with flows of contaminated water into the groundwater or the interference with the

effectiveness of water treatment, (Hunter 2003)..

A direct relationship was observed between malaria transmission and monthly rainfall.

Considers the potential impact on human health from waterborne and vector-borne infections. It

concentrates on the impact of two possible changes to climate;increased frequency of heavy rainfall

events, with associated flooding and increased temperature. Flooding is associated with increased risk

of infection in developing nations but not in the West unless water sources arecompromised. There

have been numerous reported of outbreaks that followed flooding that led to contamination of

underground sources of drinking water. Heavy rainfall also leads to deterioration in the quality of

surface waters that could adversely affect the health of those engaged in recreational water contact

(Obot et al 2010), (Udo et al 2002). It is also concluded that there may be an increase in the number

of cyanobacterial blooms because of a combination of increased nutrient concentrations and water

temperature. It is considered unlikely that climate change will lead to an increase in disease linked to



mains drinking water, although private supplies would be at risk from increased heavy rainfall events,

(Odongo et al 2005), (Hunter 2003).

Fig. 1: showing pregnant-woman-6-others-drown-in-calabar-flood 2013.

source: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/09/downpour-pregnant-woman-6-others-drown-in-

calabar-flood

THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON HUMAN HEALTH

The human and economic costs associated with declining quality of life, consultations,

treatments, hospitalisation and other events related to malaria are enormous and often lead to low

productivity and lost incomes. In Cross River State in south-eastern Nigeria, malaria is such a

significant problem among school children that the state government decided to involve them fully in

the implementation of the RBM programme ( Ndifreke et al 2010). Analysis of the medical

conditions associated with fever indicates that malaria was the infection precursory for a third of all

the fever cases among under 13 years old children for 12 years at General Hospital

Calabar(Emmanuel et al 2013).

This is because school children are known to easily imbibe and implement new knowledge and

can, therefore easily act as change agents and as role models for their siblings and peers. Malaria is a

recognized public health problem globally, accounting for about 300 million clinical cases yearly in

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/09/downpour-pregnant-woman-6-others-drown-in-calabar-flood




health facilities worldwide (WHO, 2000),(WHO, 2008). It is also responsible for more than one

million deaths annually, with majority of the deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (WHO, 2008).

Malaria causes considerable morbidity and is a leading cause of hospital attendance in resource

limited countries. It account for up to 40% of public health expenditures and a decrease of the gross

domestic products of many African countries by as much as 1.3% annually (WHO, 2000). In Nigeria,

it is responsible for loss of about 132 billion naira (US $ 880 million) annually to treatment cost, loss

of man-hours, school absenteeism and other indirect costs (Federal Ministry of Health, Nigeria, 2005)

(Emmanuel et al 2013). This study thus sought to investigate the malaria knowledge and prevention

practices among school adolescents in a coastal community in Calabar, Cross River State, Nigeria. (

Ndifreke et al 2010)

MATERIALS AND METHOD

STUDY AREA

Calabar is the capital of Cross River State. It is located at the Southern part of Cross River State.

Calabar is located between longitudes 8017’00 E and 8

0 20’00’’E latitudes 4

0 50’00’’N and

5010’00’’N. Calabar metropolis comprises of Calabar Municipality and Calabar South Local

Government Areas and covers an area of about 1,480 Sq km. Calabar is sandwiched between the

Great Kwa River to the East and the Calabar River to the West. The presence of urban area is on the

eastern bank of the Calabar River;its growth to the south is hindered by the mangrove swamps.

Calabar falls within tropical equatorial climate with high temperature, high relative humidity and

abundant annual rainfall. Two major air masses affect the climate of Calabar as well as other

contiguous locations in the West African region. The Tropical Maritime (mT) and the tropical

continental (cT) air masses affect the climate in two distinct seasons. mT air prevails and influences

its moisture characteristic while the cT air influences the dry season condition due to is desert source

across the two air masses at the upper troposphere from east to west. This is called the Equatorial

Esterlies (EE). The two air masses meet at the pressure front called Inter Tropical Discontinuity (ITD)

. There have been a massive development and urban expansion in the area over the last 10 years. This

development is not without repercussions on the natural environment as lands that were formally

vegetated, used for agriculture and as habitat for biodiversity are now being used for residential,

commercial and industrial purposes to accommodate the growing population and businesses. The loss

of once vegetated land implies a corresponding alteration of the micro-climate of the area which in

turn has great impact on the long term climatic averages of the area (Afangideh et al 2013), (Osang et

al 2013).

Data Source

Data was gathered through a well designed and articulated oral and written questionnaires, direct

and first-hand observation of the environment, and comprehensive interview sessions were carried out

with randomly selected Landlords . A total of thirteen thousand (13,000) questionnaires were

randomly distributed evenly to some Landlords in twenty six (26) streets of the study Area from

January 2012 to October 2013. Twelve thousand four hundred and eigty two (12,482) valid



questionnaire were received back. Twelve thousand (12,000) of the inhabitant Landlords reported

that, they were not affected negatively. Table 2 shows the total number of buildings that were

negatively affected due to flooding in the Area. While rainfall data from 1993– 2012 were collected

from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Margaret Ekpo International Airport, Calabar. A

simple descriptive analysis was used

RESULT:

Table 1: Data for rainfall per year in Calabar (1993-2012) .

YEAR JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Average

value

1993 64.3 39.9 177.7 161.2 230.1 281 272.4 479.1 420.5 242.6 119.7 22.8

209.3

1994 40.7 0 167.3 328.2 255.3 249.2 609.5 424.5 290 265.2 229.7 0

238.3



1995 TR 21.1 366.1 248.3 208.6 375.2 632.4 467.4 696.8 496.1 168 69.7

306.6

1996 2.4 162.2 161.5 314.5 299.5 435.3 401.1 425.1 615.2 357.4 40.5 0.6

269.7

1997 61 0 139.4 228.1 328.2 633.1 796.6 492.6 211.2 319.1 212.3 68.2

290.8

1998 25.4 6 174 149.1 211.6 504.5 255.2 353.7 365 437.1 396.3 33.6

242.6

1999 86 49.8 223 311.4 180 270.3 349.9 494.5 368.3 463.7 207.3 0.3

250.4

2000 66 0 951.9 166.4 217 250.6 597.9 392 577.6 232.9 153.6 57.5

305.3

2001 0 11.6 151.7 371.8 419.4 390.5 268.5 457 455.7 381 217.1 5.7

260.8

2002 0 13.5 154.6 383.3 301.3 344.6 274.1 623.5 284.3 285.8 126 6.8

233.2

2003 26.7 103.2 226.6 283 315.3 202.2 327.4 398.6 399.2 224.1 148.5 2.9

221.5

2004 9.9 19.9 73.5 278.4 270.2 308 303.5 391.9 335.5 196.4 168.3 0.6

196.3

2005 33.8 35.5 295.7 299.9 263.9 615.6 828.2 634.4 230.4 279.8 182.3 71.5

314.3

2006 84.7 57.1 323 166.1 430.8 227.7 484.9 273.4 536 175.3 134.4 0.1

241.1

2007 0 51.1 181 265.9 384.2 583.5 492.7 415.5 561.7 197.4 262.1 33.1

285.7

2008 15.1 1 108.1 216.9 386.8 437 597.7 509.2 217.9 315 105.1 77.1

248.9

2009 89.7 38.5 87.5 150.5 308.9 218.4 577.4 507.3 273.9 148.1 126.9 0

210.6

2010 31.8 88.2 63.6 130.4 306.5 611.3 384 406.7 451.3 269.6 272.1 56.2

256.0

2011 TR 153.4 123.1 208.8 340.9 388.6 468.6 573.7 251.8 519.9 235.2 43.8

275.7

2012 32.6 376.7 36 99.9 439.4 398.8 637.1 861.3 619.4 410.4 126.5 30.6

339.1



Fig 1 : Graph of total rainfall per year in calabar within the period of study.

Table 2: Total number of affected buildings due to flooding in Calabar from January 2012 to October

2013

DISCRIPTION OF

SELECETD TOTAL NUMBER OF

LANDLORD TOTAL NO. OF

AFFECTED S/N STREETS IN

CALABAR INTERVIEWED PER

STREET BUILDING DUE

TO FLOODING 1 ATIMBO 500 25

2 MORETALA

MOHAMMED HIGH

WAY

500 24

3 NDIDEM USANG ISO 500 21

4 GOLDIE 500 21

5 EDIM OTOP 500 23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Tota

l rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

YEAR



6 EKPO ABASI 500 21

7 GOLDIE 500 20

8 TARGET 500 21

9 EBITO 500 9

10 BIG QUA 500 7

11 EDIBE EDIBE 500 17

12 ATAMUNU 500 19

13 AKIM ROAD 500 8

14 I.BB WAY 500 20

15 OTOP ABASI 500 21

16 PARLIAMENTARY

ROAD 500 19

17 IKOT EYO BY

PARLIAMENTARY

ROAD

500 11

18 AMIKA UTUK 500 20

19 WAT MARKET 500 15

20 MARIAN MARKET 500 12

21 ASUQUO EKPO 500 21

22 OYO EFFIOM 500 21

23 EFFIOM ENE 500 22

24 WHITE HOUSE 500 22

25 MAPLE 500 21

26 UWANSE 500 21

TOTAL 13,000 482



Fig 2 : pie chart showing total number inhabitant Landlord, street affected Area in calabar from

January 2012 to October 2013

Fig 3 : comparism bar chart showing total number affected buildings due to flooding in calabar from

January 2012 to October 2013

TOTAL NUMBER OF LANDLORD INTERVIEWED PER STREET

ATIMBO

MORETALA MOHAMMEDHIGH WAY

NDIDEM USANG ISO

GOLDIE

EDIM OTOP

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TOTAL NO. OF AFFECTEDBUILDING DUE TOFLOODING

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Fig 4 :chart showing total land Area of affected streets in calabar from January 2012 to October 2013

DISCUSSION:

From Table 1 and fig 1(graph), it shows that total rainfall per year varies inconsistently over the

year. The hihgest total rainfall(mm) was recorded/observed in 2000. This is a year were various out

break of disease like malaria was recorded within the study area (Emmanuel et al 2013). Total rainfall

drops in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004, but a tremendiuos increase was observed in 2005 which also

increase the statistics of malaria victimes in the metropolise under study as stated by (Emmanuel et al

2013). between 2005 and 2011 there was fluctuation in the average rainfall(fig 1 and table 1), but

minimal. In 2012 an increase in total rainfall observed and this came with deserster we have not yet

forgotten like flooding, outbreake of malaria,distruction of farm lands, displacement of residence etc.

Nevertheless, the total rainfall increase to its peak during the humid tropical climate of the

region(between April and october) such trait is therfore expected as we observe more

degredation/deplession in the ozone layer causing increase in global warming. It has been observed

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TOTAL NO. OF AFFECTEDBUILDING DUE TOFLOODING

TOTAL NUMBER OFLANDLORD INTERVIEWEDPER STREET



that this trend of rainfall partern will increase due to human influence on climate through growths and

development in urban infrastructure, increase in population density of the study area and fossile fuel

consumption etc

SUMMARY, CONCLUSSION AND RECOMENDATION:

A negative trend or decline in the annual rainfall regime may also be extended and viewed to

encompass probable changes in the duration, intensity, frequency and the spread for the sub-region.

These change response stimuli, including the rainfall amount, focused in the study constitute the

entire components of rainfall changes that is potentially harmful to sensitive human systems in the

long and short term. It is recommended therefore that follow-up studies aimed at identifying other

response stimuli/lus other than the declining figures is required. Such a holistic approach may equally

lead to a holistic solution to the pandemic. Capacity building of human operators of sensitive systems

e.g. the agricultural and health sub-sectors etc be initiated by all governments as stitch-in-time

measures. Amongst other things, the ability to respond or cope is known to be a function of the

awareness level, income and education . So greater awareness through education that seems totally

lacking and skills through extension services education of peasants in particular need to be enhanced

for informed and efficient reactions. Finally, an intergraded impact study to determine the multiple

effect of human development on the annual rainfall regime is strongly advocated. Besides providing a

scientific management framework through its modeling and projections. The integrated impact

assessment approach normally suggests adaptation policy options.

Conceptually, human culture gets affected, modified & sustained over years and years. Such

changes in the personality traits is therefore expected. It is rainfall that determines the nature of the

society's culture & civilisation. Rainfall fundamentally decides the flora of a habitat thereby the fauna

to follow. Humans as they have a greater degree of dependancy on both, get their physical & cultural

environment affected. Rainfall causes the following: (1.) Flooding , which may eliminate habitat for

both humans and Aquatic hosts thereby force vertebrate hosts into closer contact with humans. (2.)

Decrease in survival of humans due to lost of lives. (3.) Negative changes in human population

growth. (4.) Changes in feeding behavior. (5.) Changes in seasonality of Human activities. (6.)

Increase rate of diseases like malaria, fiver etc. (7.) Destruction of buildings and infracstructure

within the Area of study. (8.) Destruction of crops due to heavy rain. (9.) Destruction of Animal

homes due to flooding. (10.) Increase of accidents rate due to bad roads caused by flood.

With the current available evidence and scenarios for climate Change due to rainfall effect in

Calabar, it would appear that the public health effects injunction with the Government, various

establishment and agency concern with health effects through rainfall pattern contributes positively to



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