Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Dr. Naomi Surgi NOAA...

Interagency Strategic

Research Plan for

Tropical Cyclones:

The Way Ahead

Dr. Naomi SurgiNOAA NCEP/EMC

March 6, 2007

• Key Findings and Recommendations

– NWP modeling and data assimilation

• Update on NCEP Hurricane Prediction System

• Collaborative Ventures

Overview

Key Findings & Recommendations

• NWP modeling and data assimilation

– Increased skill in forecasting intensity and structure, sea state and storm surge, and precipitation is now on the horizon, much as improving track forecast skill was two decades or so ago

– To meet operational needs, the Nation must be committed to supporting the key following areas:

• Advanced observations

• Advanced data assimilation technologies

• Advanced NWP models

• Investment in human and infrastructure resources

– Complimentary efforts in developing next-generation operational hurricane forecast systems should be a National priority

• NCEP Hurricane Prediction System

• Navy Tropical Cyclone System

Key Findings & Recommendations

• NWP modeling and data assimilation (continued)

– Development efforts of next-generation hurricane forecast systems

• Should form basis for projects supporting hurricane research and collaboration among experts from:

-- Other Federal Agencies

– Academia

– International NWP centers & research community

– Private sector

– Sufficient human / infrastructure resources should be provided for:

• Development of advanced data assimilation & NWP modeling systems

• Operational NWP computing

NCEP’s Advanced DA and Modeling Plans

• NCEP Data assimilation development strategy 2007-2010

• NCEP Hurricane Modeling

• Next-generation NCEP Production Suite– Preparing for the future– Production Suite: conceptual prototype– Implications

Data Assimilation Development Strategy

• Three closely related efforts– Develop Situation-Dependent Background Errors

(SDBE) and Simplified 4D-Var (S4DV)– “Classical” 4D-Var (C4DV)– Ensemble Data Assimilation (EnsDA)

• Partners– NCEP/EMC– NASA/GSFC/GMAO– THORPEX consortium

• NOAA/ESRL• CIRES• U. Maryland• U. Washington• NCAR

Advanced Data Assimilation Development Strategy

Lead Org.

Encouraging Risk FactorsAll: cost (computer+human)

increase ~3-10x

SDBE+S4DV

NCEP/EMC

Evolutionary development path

Experience through RTMA – SDBE critical for hurricanes

GSI operational 2007:Q3

Definition of appropriate covariance uncertain

Multiple approaches (incl. ensembles)

C4DV NASA/GMAO

Positive impact at other WX centers

(ECMWF, UKMO, CMC, JMA)

Various approximations

Cost + (3x code)

Which forecast model will be used?

EnsDA EMC/

UMd, CIRES, ESRL, UW NCAR

Good results at low res & low data volumes

Relatively simple algorithms

Ens. DOF may not be sufficient (esp. hires)

Data handling for large data volumes challenging

Obs & model bias correction

Covariance inflation req.

NCEP DA Development Strategy

• Adapt Hybrid (?) – combine best features of advanced techniques

Flexible schedule due to advanced nature of work~yearly upgrades of SDBE/S4DV from NCEP/EMC

S4DV + EnsDA – 2007-2008

• Prototype development– 2008

• Full parallel testing• Transition decision (between 3 candidates)

– 2009-2010 • Pre-implementation testing• Operational implementation

Next-generation NCEP Production Suite

• Motivation

• Production Suite: conceptual prototype

• Implications

Motivation • Support improved NWS forecast services

– Greater focus on high-impact events– Additional environmental information service

responsibilities– Provide more information to users and access to

more info– Probabilistic and ensemble methods

• Respond to external (NRC) reports– “Completing the Forecast” – “Fair Weather”

• Respond to NOAA Science Advisory Board reviews– Ocean modeling (National “backbone”)– Hurricane intensity (ensemble-based system)

Motivation

• Observations (number and availability)– Advanced Polar and Geostationary sounders

(~100 X greater)– < 60 minute delivery – Next-generation Doppler radar

• Advanced technologies for– Data assimilation

• Discussed earlier– Ensemble processing

• Bias and Ensembles (e.g. NAEFS)• Quantify value-added for multi-model ensemble

system (e.g. CPC “Consolidation”)– “Reforecast” data base (CFS, Week2 products)– Product delivery (e.g. NOMADS)

Production Suite: Conceptual Prototype

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

• Concurrent execution of global and regional applications– More efficient execution of rapid updating

• In-core updating for analysis increments • Regional (CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Caribbean & Puerto Rico, Hurricanes) • Global (if requirements and resources)

– All ensemble members may exchange information during execution• ESMF*-based Common Modeling Infrastructure

Analysis

* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC)

Analysis--------------

OtherForecastSystems

Physics(1,2,3)

ESMF Utilities(clock, error handling, etc)

Post processor & Product GeneratorVerification

Resolution change

1-11-21-32-12-22-3

ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)

Multi-component ensemble+

Stochastic forcing

Coupler

Dynamics(1,2)

Application Driver

ESMF* Compliant Component System

* Earth System Modeling Framework (Navy (NRL), NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, NCEP/EMC)

2, 3 etc: institutionally (non-NCEP) supported

EMC is exploring with NRL development of a mutually beneficial ESMF system

08 09 10 11 12

Radial vel./ reflectivity Adv. DA

SDBE

Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core

Advancing HURRICANE System

Atm. Model physics and resolution upgrades (continuous) Atm. Model physics and resolution upgrades (continuous)

Atm/ocean boundary layer: wave drag, enthalpy fluxes (sea spray) Atm/ocean boundary layer: wave drag, enthalpy fluxes (sea spray)

Microphysics, radiation Microphysics, radiation Incr. resolution Incr. resolution

(6km/>64L)(6km/>64L)

WavesWaves: surf-zone physics implement : surf-zone physics implement

Ocean:Ocean: 4km. - continuous upgrades in RTOFS 4km. - continuous upgrades in RTOFS

ENSEMBLES???

ENSEMBLES???

Prototype

Ens w/Navy

Prototype

Ens w/Navy

Transition to ESMFTransition to ESMF

Storm surge???

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00

6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day

Pe

rce

nt

Us

ed

RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal

GD

AS

GF

S an

al

NA

M an

al

CFS

RTOFS

SR

EF NAM

AQ

GFSHUR

RD

AS

Current (2007)

GENS/NAEFS

Current - 2007

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems

CFSMFS



0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00


Pe

rce

nt

Us

ed


WAV

CFS & MFS

GENS/NAEFSGFS

Next Generation PrototypePhase 4 - 2015

Regional

Rap Refresh

Global

HURSREF

Reforecast

Hydro / NIDIS/FF

Hydro

NAM

GDAS

RDAS

RTOFS RTOFSAQ


AQ

Computing factor: 81

Concurrent• GFS*• NAM• SREF Hourly• GDAS• RDAS• Rapid Refresh Expanded• Hurricane capability (hires)• Hydro/NIDIS• Reforecast

* Earlier delivery of GFS concurrent combined products from NAM, GFS, SREF

CFS & MFS



0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00


Per

cen

t U

sed


CFSMFS

WAVGFSRegional

Rap Refresh

GlobalSREFReforecast

Hydro

NAM

GDAS

RDAS

RTOFS

RT

OF

S

CFS & MFSAQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ

GENS/NAEFS

>100% of 2015 computing

Next Generation PrototypeFinal – 2017+


GLOBAL NGATS

HU

R

Computing factor: > 240

ECOSYSTEMS

SPACE WEATHER

HENS

• Principals for moving forward1. Data assimilation advances

• Major factor in improved forecast performance• Provide return on investment in costly observing systems • Require greater fraction of NCEP’s Production Suite

2. Maturing, ensemble-based, probabilistic systems offer the most potential benefits across wide spectrum of forecast services

3. Product delivery• Time is critical (perishable product)• Information availability must be maximized

Conclusion

Summary• Comprehensive Data Assimilation (DA) development strategy

– 2007-2010• Phased evolution of the NCEP Production Suite

– 2009-2015– Results in

• Improved services for high impact weather• Application of advanced data assimilation techniques for improved

model initial conditions• More efficient

– Use of computing– Incorporation of new product lines for improved services

• Earlier product delivery• More uniform and informative product stream

– Advanced ensemble suite including components supported outside NCEP– Improved statistical post-processing– Reforecast and Reanalysis become operationally supported

– Consistent with• ESMF • DA development strategy and interagency collaborations (current and

anticipated)

Resources

• Improving intensity/structure, etc. - complex problem – not only scientifically

• Requires resources for science, obs, modeling systems, computing and infrastructure (in correct proportions)

• Collaborations are integral to effort• Will only prove beneficial IFF

collaborative efforts have sufficient resources (both $$$ and human)

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Dr. Naomi Surgi NOAA...

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