Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Holger Treidel
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Lucka Kajfez Bogataj
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Transcript of Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Lucka Kajfez Bogataj
Climate Variability and Changeimportance for IWRM planning processimportance for IWRM planning process
Lučka Kajfež BogatajUniversity of Ljubljana, Slovenia
former IPCC WG2 vicechair
Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions
Growth rate
2000-2010
3.1% per year
Growth rate
2010
5.9% yr
Growth rate
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009
Growth rate
1990-1999
1% per year
Growth rate
2009
-1.3% per year
Uncertainty (6-10%)
+-
Key QuestionsIncreased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
WaterFood
Climate Change
1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?
2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?
3. Can we provide enough WaterIncreased demand
30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
FoodIncreased demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?
4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?
5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?
Biodiversity
The Perfect Storm?(Beddington, 2009)
Jun-Jul-Aug and Dec-Jan-Feb
temperature anomalies (°C) Jun-Jul-Aug Dec-Jan-Feb
Hansen, 2011
Summer temperature in Europe
Barriopedro et al., 2011
EEA www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/
3 classes of water problems in SEE
• too little water • too much water• water pollution • water pollution
Can (and will) be exacerbated by climate change
Main drought events in Europe, 2000–2009
Recurrence of flood events in Europe
(EEA, 2011)
Europe: Geographic ChangesEurope: Geographic Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
20802080--20992099 Minus Minus 19801980--19991999 (A1B)(A1B)
Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC , 2011)
Decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme temperature events
The time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease
IPCC SREX, 2011 : on drougts
Summary for Policymakers
• There is medium confidence that droughts will
intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and
areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or
increased evapotranspiration. increased evapotranspiration.
• This applies to regions including southern
Europe and the Mediterranean region, central
Europe, central North America, Central America
and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.
River flowRiver flow ––projected trendprojected trend
Relative change in seasonal and annual runoff between 1961-1990 compared to 2071-2100 (SRES A2). Dankers and Feyen, 2008.
Projected rProjected river flow droughtsiver flow droughts
Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flowbetween scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)
Feyen and Dankers, 2008.
River floodsRiver floods ––projected trendprojected trendRelative change in 100-year return level (Gumbel fit) of river discharge between scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)
Dankers and Feyen, 2008.
Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from 19% today to 35%by 2070.
Areas affected by Areas affected by droughts will increase.
Risks in key sectorsWater: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand
Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand
Energy
Urban spaceClimate change
Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums
Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)
WaterFood
EnergyInfrastructuretransport
Land use
Governance
• The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations
• The danger of international competition for adequate water
The water conflict scenario
competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably.
•• Need to prevent intense
competition for this essential substance
http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-
worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://
How to adapt?• Regarding increasing water stress, the most common
and planned strategies remain supply-side measures such as impounding rivers to form in-stream reservoirs (also wastewater reuse and desalination).
• Demand-side strategies are also needed, such as household, industrial and agricultural water conservation, household, industrial and agricultural water conservation, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems, and water pricing.
• The main structural measures to protect against floodsare likely to remain reservoirs and dikes in highland and lowland areas respectively. Other planned adaptation options include expanded floodplain areas, emergency flood reservoirs, preserved areas for flood water, and flood warning systems.
Adaptation and WATER Risk Management
Approaches for a Changing Climate
Conclusions
• Water resources management in the CEE region faces formidable challenges.
• The hydrological regimes of the major rivers in the region are complex and vulnerable to climate change. change.
• The impact of a warming climate on key hydrological processes is not sufficiently understood
• At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in SEE region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place.