Learning Analytics The New Burden of Knowledge

Simon Buckingham Shum Knowledge Media Institute The Open University UK http://simon.buckinghamshum.net http://linkedin.com/in/simon

INSIGHT Centre for Data Analytics, Univ. Galway, 2 Oct 2013 http://www.insight-centre.org

@sbskmi #LearningAnalytics

mission

walk out with

better questions than you can ask right now about analytics

new tech and collaboration opportunities

to advance

education 2

why are we seeing this?... 3

Why are we seeing this?...

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VLEs + Analytics Publishers + Analytics

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Audrey Waters: http://hackeducation.com/2012/11/19/top-ed-tech-trends-of-2012-the-business-of-ed-tech

Ed-Tech startups explosive growth

Why are we seeing this?...

6 https://www.edx.org/about

“this is big data, giving us the chance to ask big

questions about learning”

Why are we seeing this?...

7 http://careers.stackoverflow.com/jobs/35348/software-engineer-analytics-coursera

Why are we seeing this?...

8

Why are we seeing this?...

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/education/trinity-joins-elite-colleges-to-offer-free-online-courses-29355438.html

the data/analytics tsunami is about to hit

the education sector 9

Data and analytics are transforming business, government and public services

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Why would Higher Education be immune? Why wouldn’t a sector focused on evidence-based thinking and action welcome it?

A critical discussion is emerging More later…

11 L. Johnson, R. Smith, H. Willis, A. Levine, and K. Haywood, The 2011 Horizon Report (Austin, TX: The New Media Consortium,

2011), http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2011-Horizon-Report.pdf

NMC Horizon 2011 Report: Learning Analytics (4-5yrs adoption)

Analytics is being heralded…

(2013 report)

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Continuous coverage…

http://www.online-educa.com/OEB_Newsportal/whats-so-big-about-big-data

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…and debated…

http://www.online-educa.com/OEB_Newsportal/we-urgently-need-to-safeguard-free-will-in-the-age-of-big-data

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Tectonic forces are reshaping the learning landscape…

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the opportunity for

learning design learning sciences

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From an analytics product review…

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From an analytics product review…

“Some have tried to argue that this technology doesn't work out cost effectively when compared to conventional tests... but this misses a huge point. More often than not, we test after the event and discover the problem — but this is too late..”

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Aquarium Analytics!

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How is your aquatic ecosystem?

“This means that the keeper can be notified before water conditions directly harm the fish—an assured outcome of predictive software that lets you know if it looks like the pH is due to drop, or the temperature is on its way up.

This way, it’s a real fish saver, as opposed to a forensic examiner, post-wipeout.”

(From a review of Seneye, in a hobbyist magazine) 22

How is your learning ecosystem?

This means that the teacher can be notified before learning conditions directly harm the students — an assured outcome of predictive software that lets you know if it looks like engagement is due to drop, or distraction is on its way up.

This way, it’s a real student saver, as opposed to a forensic examiner, post-wipeout.

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Back to Aquarium Analytics…

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fish aquarium science

learners? learning science

instructional design

Back to Aquarium Analytics…

Purdue University Signals: real time traffic-lights for students based on predictive model

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Purdue University Signals: real time traffic-lights for students based on predictive model

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Predicted 66%-80% of struggling students who needed help

MODEL: •  ACT or SAT score •  Overall grade-point average •  CMS usage composite •  CMS assessment composite •  CMS assignment composite •  CMS calendar composite

Campbell et al (2007). Academic Analytics: A New Tool for a New Era, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 42, no. 4 (July/August 2007): 40–57. http://bit.ly/lmxG2x

Purdue University Signals: real time traffic-lights for students based on predictive model

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“Results thus far show that students who have engaged with

Course Signals have higher average grades and seek out help

resources at a higher rate than other students.”

Pistilli, M. D., Arnold, K. and Bethune, M., Signals: Using Academic Analytics to Promote Student Success. EDUCAUSE Review Online, July/Aug., (2012). http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/signals-using-academic-analytics-promote-student-success

Predictive analytics @open.edu

Registra)on  Pa.ern  

CRM  contact  

VLE  interac)on  

Grades  

Demo-­‐graphics  

? How early can we predict likelihood of dropout, formal withdrawal, failure? Now exploring conventional statistics, machine learning and growing datasets

Library  interac)on  

OpenLearn  interac)on  

FutureLearn  interac)on  

Social  App  X  interac)on  OU  history  

Predictive analytics @open.edu

A.L. Wolff and Z. Zdrahal (2012). Improving Retention by Identifying and Supporting “At-risk” Students. EDUCAUSE Review Online, July-August 2012. http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/improving-retention-identifying-and-supporting-risk-students

Test a range of predictive models:

final result (pass/fail) final numerical score drop in the next TMA score of the next TMA

Demo- graphics

Previous results

VLE activity

Adding in user interaction data from the VLE

the opportunity for the

learning sciences to combine with your university’s

collective intelligence

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macro meso micro

analytics 32

Macro/Meso/Micro Learning Analytics

Macro: region/state/national/international

League Tables Data Interoperability Initiatives

Macro/Meso/Micro Learning Analytics

Meso: institution-wide

Macro: region/state/national/international

Business Intelligence Products

Business Intelligence

≠ Learning Analytics

Micro: individual user actions

(and hence cohort)

Macro/Meso/Micro Learning Analytics

Meso: institution-wide

Macro: region/state/national/international

Learning Analytics

Micro: individual user actions

(and hence cohort)

Hard distinctions between Learning + Academic analytics may dissolve

Meso: institution-wide

Macro: region/state/national/international

Aggregation of user traces enriches meso + macro analytics with finer-grained process data

…as they get joined up, each level enriches the others

Micro: individual user actions

(and hence cohort)

Hard distinctions between Learning + Academic analytics may dissolve

Meso: institution-wide

Macro: region/state/national/international

Aggregation of user traces enriches meso + macro analytics with finer-grained process data

Breadth + depth from macro + meso levels add power to

micro analytics

…as they get joined up, each level enriches the others

Insight Centre intersection with

learning analytics?

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Insight Centre R&D

40 http://www.insight-centre.org

There is active research (and often product development) at the intersection of education

and all of these tech R&D challenges

Insight Centre R&D could tackle education

41 http://adenu.ia.uned.es/workshops/recsystel2010 www.educationaldatamining.org http://linkedup-project.eu/2013/03/17/using-linked-data-in-learning-analytics-a-tutorial-by-the-linkedup-consortium http://www.slideshare.net/erik.duval/20130703-lasi-stanforderik http://www.dia.uniroma3.it/~umap2013/

predictive models are exciting

but there are many other

kinds of analytics

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Analytics coming to a VLE near you: e.g. Blackboard

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http://www.blackboard.com/platforms/analytics/overview.aspx http://www.blackboard.com/Platforms/Analytics/Products/Blackboard-Analytics-for-Learn.aspx

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Student Activity Dashboard (Erik Duval)

Duval E. (2011) Attention please!: learning analytics for visualization and recommendation. Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge. Banff, Alberta, Canada: ACM, 9-17.

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Khan Academy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLt6mMQH1OY

Khan Academy has extended great instructional movies with a tutoring platform with detailed analytics

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https://grockit.com/research

Adaptive platforms generate fine-grained analytics on curriculum mastery

Intelligent tutoring for skills mastery (CMU) http://oli.cmu.edu

Lovett M, Meyer O and Thille C. (2008) The Open Learning Initiative: Measuring the effectiveness of the OLI statistics course in accelerating student learning. Journal of Interactive Media in Education 14. http://jime.open.ac.uk/article/2008-14/352

“In this study, results showed that OLI-Statistics students [blended learning] learned a full semester’s worth of material in half as much time and performed as well or better than students learning from traditional instruction over a full semester.”

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Are students using the right tools at the right time in the right way? (Abelardo Pardo, LAK13 Keynote)

http://www.slideshare.net/abelardo_pardo/bridging-the-middle-space-with-learning-analytics

Social Learning Analytics

Buckingham Shum, Sand Ferguson, R (2012). Social Learning Analytics. Journal of Educational Technology and Society, 15(3) pp. 3–26. http://oro.open.ac.uk/34092

•  Explosive growth in social media

•  The open/free content paradigm

•  Evidence of a global shift in societal attitudes which increasingly values participation

•  Innovation depends on reciprocal social relationships, tacit knowing

Social Network Analysis (SNAPP)

50 Bakharia, A. and Dawson, S., SNAPP: a bird's-eye view of temporal participant interaction. In: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge (Banff, Alberta, Canada, 2011). ACM. pp.168-173

What’s going on in these discussion forums?

Social Network Analysis (SNAPP)

51 http://www.slideshare.net/aneeshabakharia/snapp-20minute-presentation

Social Network Analysis (SNAPP)

52 http://www.slideshare.net/aneeshabakharia/snapp-20minute-presentation

2 learners connect otherwise separate clusters

tutor only engaging with active students, ignoring disengaged ones on the edge

Social Learning Analytics about to appear in products…

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http://www.desire2learn.com/products/analytics (this is from a beta demo)

Semantic Social Network Analytics

De Liddo, A., Buckingham Shum, S., Quinto, I., Bachler, M. and Cannavacciuolo, L. Discourse-centric learning analytics. 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Banff, 27 Mar-1 Apr, 2011) http://oro.open.ac.uk/25829

Visualizing and filtering social ties in SocialLearn by topic and type

Schreurs B, Teplovs C, Ferguson R, De Laat M and Buckingham Shum S. (2013) Visualizing Social Learning Ties by Type and Topic: Rationale and Concept Demonstrator. Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge. Leuven, BE: ACM, 33-37. Open Access Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/36891

Visualizing and filtering social ties in SocialLearn by topic and type

Visualizing and filtering social ties in SocialLearn by topic and type

Visualizing and filtering social ties in SocialLearn by topic and type

Visualizing and filtering social ties in SocialLearn by topic and type

discourse analytics

are students using language as a

knowledge-building tool?

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The promise of language technologies

Beyond number / size / frequency of posts or ‘trending topic’

?

http://ww

w.glennsasscer.com

/wordpress/w

p-content/uploads/2011/10/iceberg.jpg

Discourse analytics on webinar textchat

Ferguson, R. and Buckingham Shum, S., Learning analytics to identify exploratory dialogue within synchronous text chat. In: 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge (Banff, Canada, 2011). ACM

Can we spot the quality learning conversations in a 2.5 hr webinar?

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Discourse analytics on webinar textchat

Sheffield, UK not as sunny as yesterday - still warm Greetings from Hong Kong Morning from Wiltshire, sunny here!

See you! bye for now! bye, and thank you Bye all for now

Given a 2.5 hour webinar, where in the live textchat were the most effective learning conversations? Not at the start and end of a webinar…

Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664

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Given a 2.5 hour webinar, where in the live textchat were the most effective learning conversations? Not at the start and end of a webinar but if we zoom in on a peak…

Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664

Discourse analytics on webinar textchat

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talk”

(more substantive for learning)

“non-exploratory”

Given a 2.5 hour webinar, where in the live textchat were the most effective learning conversations? Not at the start and end of a webinar but if we zoom in on a peak…

Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664

Discourse analytics on webinar textchat

Visualizing by individual user. The gradient of the threshold line is adjusted to every 5 posts in 6 classified as “Exploratory Talk”

Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664

“Rhetorical parsing” to identify constructions signifying scholarly writing

OPEN QUESTION: “… little is known …” “… role … has been elusive” “Current data is insufficient …”

CONTRASTING IDEAS: “… unorthodox view resolves …” “In contrast with previous hypotheses ...” “... inconsistent with past findings ...”

SURPRISE: “We have recently observed ... surprisingly” “We have identified ... unusual” “The recent discovery ... suggests intriguing roles”

http://technologies.kmi.open.ac.uk/cohere/2012/01/09/cohere-plus-automated-rhetorical-annotation De Liddo, A., Sándor, Á. and Buckingham Shum, S., Contested Collective Intelligence: Rationale, Technologies, and a Human-Machine Annotation Study. Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 21, 4-5, (2012), 417-448. http://oro.open.ac.uk/31052

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Xerox Incremental Parser (XIP)

Sándor, Á. and Vorndran, A. (2010). The detection of salient messages from social science research papers and its application in document search. Workshop on Natural Language Processing Tools Applied to Discourse Analysis in Psychology, Buenos Aires, Argentina, May 10-14. 2010.

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Xerox Incremental Parser (XIP)

Sándor, Á. and Vorndran, A. (2010). The detection of salient messages from social science research papers and its application in document search. Workshop on Natural Language Processing Tools Applied to Discourse Analysis in Psychology, Buenos Aires, Argentina, May 10-14. 2010.

Initial evaluation of XIP is promising, but methodologically complex

Human analyst XIP

A striking example – but not all were like this (De Liddo et al, 2012)

19 sentences annotated 22 sentences annotated 11 sentences same as human annotation

71 sentences annotated 59 sentences annotated 42 sentences same as human annotation

Document 1

Document 2

Extract from annotation comparison:

Xerox Incremental Parser (XIP)

XIP’s raw output is fine for NLP machines/researchers, but

not learner/educator friendly

Xerox Incremental Parser (XIP)

5000 (or even 30) plain text files…

we need overviews of XIP analyses from

a corpus

Making XIP analytics visible: Annotations on the full text using the OU’s Cohere social sensemaking app (Firefox add-on)

XIP Dashboard All papers by year and concept, with colour = concept density (v2 mockup)

74 Simsek D, Buckingham Shum S, Sándor Á, De Liddo A and Ferguson R. (2013) XIP Dashboard: Visual Analytics from Automated Rhetorical Parsing of Scientific Metadiscourse. 1st International Workshop on Discourse-Centric Learning Analytics, at 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge. Leuven, BE (Apr. 8-12, 2013). Open Access Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/37391

intrinsic motivation self-regulation

resilience

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Why do dispositions matter?

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“Knowledge of methods alone will not suffice: there must be the desire, the will, to employ them. This desire is an affair of personal disposition.”

John Dewey

Dewey, J. How We Think: A Restatement of the Relation of Reflective Thinking to the Educative Process. Heath and Co, Boston, 1933

“In the growth mindset, people believe that their talents and abilities can be developed through passion, education, and persistence … It’s about a commitment to … taking informed risks … surrounding yourself with people who will challenge you to grow”

Carol Dweck

77 Interview with Carol Dweck: http://interviewscoertvisser.blogspot.co.uk/2007/11/interview-with-carol-dweck_4897.html

Why do dispositions matter?

“We’re looking at the profiles of what it means to be effective in the 21st century. […] Resilience will be the defining concept. When challenged and bent, you learn and bounce back stronger.”

“Dispositions are now at least as important as Knowledge and Skills. …They cannot be taught. They can only be cultivated.”

John Seely Brown

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http://reimaginingeducation.org conference (May 28, 2013) Dispositions clip: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/clip/4457327 Whole talk: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/SecD

Why do dispositions matter?

How can we model and quantify learning

dispositions in order to develop analytics?

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Validated as loading onto 7 dimensions of “Learning Power”

Changing & Learning

Meaning Making

Critical Curiosity

Creativity

Learning Relationships

Strategic Awareness

Resilience

Being Stuck & Static

Data Accumulation

Passivity

Being Rule Bound

Isolation & Dependence

Being Robotic

Fragility & Dependence

Ruth Deakin Crick Grad. School of Education

Learning to Learn: 7 Dimensions of Learning Power Factor analysis of the literature plus expert interviews: identified seven dimensions of effective “learning power”, since validated empirically with learners at many levels. (Deakin Crick, Broadfoot and Claxton, 2004)

Learning to Learn: 7 Dimensions of Learning Power

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platforms for Dispositional Learning

Analytics

83 DLA Workshop, Stanford (July 2013) http://learningemergence.net/events/lasi-dla-wkshp

Analytics for lifelong/lifewide learning dispositions: ELLI

Buckingham Shum, S. and Deakin Crick, R. (2012). Learning Dispositions and Transferable Competencies: Pedagogy, Modelling and Learning Analytics. Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Learning Analytics & Knowledge. (29 Apr-2 May, Vancouver). Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32823

ELLI generates cohort data for each dimension

Buckingham Shum, S. and Deakin Crick, R. (2012). Learning Dispositions and Transferable Competencies: Pedagogy, Modelling and Learning Analytics. Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Learning Analytics & Knowledge. (29 Apr-2 May, Vancouver). Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32823

Primary School EnquiryBloggers Bushfield School, Wolverton, UK

EnquiryBlogger: blogging for Learning Power & Authentic Enquiry http://learningemergence.net/2012/06/20/enquiryblogger-for-learning-power-authentic-enquiry

Masters level EnquiryBloggers Graduate School of Education, University of Bristol

EnquiryBlogger: blogging for Learning Power & Authentic Enquiry http://learningemergence.net/2012/06/20/enquiryblogger-for-learning-power-authentic-enquiry

EnquiryBlogger dashboard – direct

navigation to learner’s blogs from the visual

analytic

Could a platform generate an ELLI profile from user traces?

Shaofu Huang: Prototyping Learning Power Modelling in SocialLearn http://www.open.ac.uk/blogs/SocialLearnResearch/2012/06/20/social-learning-analytics-symposium

Different social network patterns

in different contexts may

load onto Learning

Relationships

Questioning and challenging may load onto Critical

Curiosity

Sharing relevant resources from other contexts may load onto

Meaning Making

Repeated attempts to pass

an online test may load onto

Resilience

Your most recent mood comment: “Great, at last I have found all the resources that I have been looking for, thanks to!Steve and Ellen.!

In your last discussion with your mentor, you decided to work on your resilience by taking on more learning challenges

Your ELLI Spider shows that you have made a start on working on your resilience, and that you are also beginning to work on your creativity, which you identified as another area to work on.

1 2 3

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Envisioning a social learning analytics dashboard

Ferguson R and Buckingham Shum S. (2012) Social Learning Analytics: Five Approaches. Proc. 2nd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge. Vancouver, 29 Apr-2 May: ACM: New York, 23-33. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2330601.2330616 Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32910

thorny issues

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Accounting tools are not neutral

“accounting tools...do not simply aid the measurement of economic activity, they shape the reality they measure”

Du Gay, P. and Pryke, M. (2002) Cultural Economy: Cultural Analysis and Commercial Life. Sage, London. pp. 12-13

cf. Bowker and Starr’s “Sorting Things Out” on classification schemes

Buckingham Shum, S. and Deakin Crick, R. (2012). Learning Dispositions and Transferable Competencies: Pedagogy, Modelling and Learning Analytics. Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Learning Analytics & Knowledge. (29 Apr-2 May, 2012, Vancouver, BC). ACM. Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32823

“A marker of the health of the learning analytics field will be the quality of debate around what the technology renders visible and leaves invisible.”

The Wal-Martification of education?

94 http://chronicle.com/blogs/techtherapy/2012/05/02/episode-95-learning-analytics-could-lead-to-wal-martification-of-college http://lak12.wikispaces.com/Recordings

“The basic question is not what can we measure? The basic question is

what does a good education look like?

Big questions.

“data narrowness” “instrumental learning”

“students with no curiosity”

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“Our analytics are our pedagogy”

(and epistemology)

They promote assessment regimes — which drive (and strangle)

educational innovation

Knight S., Buckingham Shum S. and Littleton K. (2013) Epistemology, Pedagogy, Assessment and Learning Analytics. Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge. Leuven, BE: ACM, 75-84 Open Access Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/36635

learning analytics are

not neutral

data does not “speak for itself”

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Analytics cycle (Doug Clow) h.p://www.slideshare.net/dougclow/the-­‐learning-­‐analy)cs-­‐cycle-­‐closing-­‐the-­‐loop-­‐effec)vely  (slide  5)  

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Analytics cycle (George Siemens) h.p://www.slideshare.net/gsiemens/eli-­‐2012-­‐sensemaking-­‐analy)cs  (slide  7)  

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All analytics are infused with human values Elaborated version of figure from Doug Clow: h.p://www.slideshare.net/dougclow/the-­‐learning-­‐analy)cs-­‐cycle-­‐closing-­‐the-­‐loop-­‐effec)vely  (slide  5)

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What kinds of learners? What kinds of learning?

What data could be generated digitally

from the use context? (you can invent future technologies if need)

Does your theory predict patterns

signifying learning?

What human +/or software

interventions /recommendations?

How to render the analytics, for whom, and will they

understand them?

What analytical tools could be used to find

such patterns?

ethics

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Who gets to define, and hold, the

magnifying glass?

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Learning Analytics should provide mirrors for

learners to become more reflective, and less

dependent

to go deeper…

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Join the community…

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http://SoLAResearch.org

http://LAKconference.org

replays of all previous

conference presentations

Join the community…

104 http://www.solaresearch.org/events/lasi

replays of all sessions

Open course on systemic deployment of analytics

105 https://www.canvas.net/courses/policy-and-strategy-for-systemic-deployment-of-learning-analytics

Universities and companies exploring institutional strategy,

policy and infrastructure

JISC Briefings on Learning Analytics

106 http://publications.cetis.ac.uk/c/analytics

EDUCAUSE Briefings on Learning Analytics

107 http://www.educause.edu/library/learning-analytics

Learning Analytics Policy Brief (UNESCO • IITE)

108 http://bit.ly/LearningAnalytics

http://LearningEmergence.net

We all love a good big brother (don’t we?)

“A responsible school/university in 2016 will use every form of data shared by students in order to maximise their success.”

Discuss

Thank you!