.Z&ZF%S DPNCJOFT UIF TFMFDUJPO BOE WBMVF PG … · xxx nzfzfes dpn .: &:& %0$ !! +7584-
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015 · PDF fileGAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478...
24
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015 GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected] GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 1 E.U. Rice Ex Mill Bulk USD /MT Euro /Mt $ /Mt Euro /Mt $/Mt Euro/Mt 12 Dec 2011 12 Dec 2011 13 Jan 2013 13 Jan 2013 25 Jan 2015 25 Jan 2015 Originario Round Japonica 705 560 670 Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 700 Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 1250 Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 1350 Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 1200 Carnaroli LG Japonica Top Qlty -7.38 mm 1430 INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 520 Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 1450 Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 620 Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365 340 Broken ½ grain 370 355 320 Rice Bran Row –Pula 150 115 Broken less ¼ sortex 300 290 Egyptian White Medium 2 /5 % Fob FCL Alexandria 730 910 EU import Tax on Milled Rice Euro/Mt 175 EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65 EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30 Spain Blanco Japonica RG Sevilla NA NA Russian Rice Future – 14 % Br WM Osmangik Ex Mill Krasn Bulk 623 468 NA Soft Wheat 10 % pro ex Rouen 283 Maize Ex Bordeaux 174 Durum Wheat France South port PLN THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT EURO /MT $ /Mt Euro/ Mt $ Euro Thailand milled Long Grain Indica Thai White Rice 100% B 2014 crop 600 560 430 Thai White Rice 5% 2014-15 585 550 415 Thai White Rice 5 % 2013 Na - Thai White Rice 10% 2014-15 580 545 408 Thai White Rice 10% 2012-13 - Thai White Rice 15% 2014 575 540 405 Thai White Rice 25% 2014 -15 570 535 360 Thai White Rice 25 % 2012-13 - 100 Broken A1 Super 2014-15 545 525 330 Fragrant A1 Super 2014 -15 540 560 360 Parboiled rice 100% LG Sortexed W Milled 590 575 415 Pathunthani Fragrant 5 % Br 572 Hom Mali 92% Purity grade A 2014 -15 5% 1075 1080 1000 Hom Mali 92% Purity grade A 2013-14 950
Transcript of INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015 · PDF fileGAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478...
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 1
E.U. Rice Ex Mill Bulk
USD
/MT
Euro
/Mt
$ /Mt Euro
/Mt
$/Mt Euro/Mt
12
Dec
2011
12 Dec
2011
13
Jan 2013
13
Jan 2013
25 Jan
2015
25 Jan
2015
Originario Round Japonica 705 560 670
Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 700
Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 1250
Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 1350
Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 1200
Carnaroli LG Japonica Top Qlty -7.38 mm 1430
INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 520
Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 1450
Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 620
Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365 340
Broken ½ grain 370 355 320
Rice Bran Row –Pula 150 115
Broken less ¼ sortex 300 290
Egyptian White Medium 2 /5 % Fob FCL
Alexandria 730
910
EU import Tax on Milled Rice Euro/Mt 175
EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65
EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30
Spain Blanco Japonica RG Sevilla NA NA
Russian Rice Future – 14 % Br WM Osmangik
Ex Mill Krasn Bulk 623 468
NA
Soft Wheat 10 % pro ex Rouen 283
Maize Ex Bordeaux 174
Durum Wheat France South port PLN
THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT
EURO/MT
$ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Thailand milled Long Grain Indica
Thai White Rice 100% B 2014 crop 600 560 430
Thai White Rice 5% 2014-15 585 550 415
Thai White Rice 5 % 2013 Na -
Thai White Rice 10% 2014-15 580 545 408
Thai White Rice 10% 2012-13 -
Thai White Rice 15% 2014 575 540 405
Thai White Rice 25% 2014 -15 570 535 360
Thai White Rice 25 % 2012-13 -
100 Broken A1 Super 2014-15 545 525 330
Fragrant A1 Super 2014 -15 540 560 360
Parboiled rice 100% LG Sortexed W Milled 590 575 415
Pathunthani Fragrant 5 % Br 572
Hom Mali 92% Purity grade A 2014 -15 5% 1075 1080 1000
Hom Mali 92% Purity grade A 2013-14 950
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 2
PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or
In Container FCL 20 “
$/MT
EURO/MT
USD/MT EURO/
MT $ Euro
Irri 6 Milled
WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Brkn sortex DP 435 385-390
WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM 425 375
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn W Milled 394 365
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Standard 380 355
WR LG 25 max standard Milling 395 372 335
100% Broken Sortex Double polished 365 350 300
PK 386 Long Grain 2 % Na
Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 990 NA NA
IRRI 9 Milled 2 % 720 715
ParBoiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD 440 400
Small Broken w m d sortex 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption
NA
INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag
$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Parboiled PR 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla 510 495
White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortex DP 5
Kandla 520
480
WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla 500 NA
WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla 440 NA
Broken sortex super PR 106 Kandla NA NA
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP srtxd Kakinada 435 435 395
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard WM 420 385
Parboiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada 428 390
Parboiled 1001 MG Sortex W M 5 % 380
W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled
WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 410 395 360
PB BROWN LG IR 64 / 6 mm 355
BROWN LG IR 64 / 6 mm 390 350
Broken Sortex D P Kernel more than 1,5 MM IR 64
325
300
Broken less than 1.5 mm well milled human consumption
305
280
PB Broken sortex well milled 305
1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 kgs
Haryana Punjab
5000
Pure Basmati milled 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 kgs
Haryana Punjab
10400
Pusa L G 1509 non Basmati ex Mill Rps/100 kg s
Haryana Punjab
3800
Medium Grain Swarna Sortex 5% DP 5.5 mm max
Kakinada 395
NA
Med G Swarna 15 % broken Indica RWM Kakinada NA
Med G Swarna 25 % Broken RWM Kakinada 370 NA NA
M Grain PB 1001 -5.6 mm SRTX WM 5 pct 395 NA NA
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 3
VIETNAM FOB 50 kg traditional vessel
$ EURO $ /Mt
Euro/ Mt
$/Mt
LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 495 415 380
10% Br basis 3/4 WM 490 405 375
15% Br basis 2/3 WM 475 395 363
25 % Br basis ½ grain R W MILLED 460 380 350
A1 Super broken Well Milled 425 355 325
Fragrant 100 % broken well milled 350
Jasmine 5 % Brkn Pure 90 % sortex DP 400 530
LG Fragrant KDM 5 purity 90% WM DP 5% 760 620
MERCOSUR $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled
Uruguay Long Grain Sortex 5% broken Bagged FOB
565 625
580
Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL 525 510 NA
Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL Na 500 NA
Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t
560 Na
550
Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt
Na
NA
Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortex bagged Fob 595 575 NA
Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortex bulk FAS + empty bags $ 10/ Mt
555 565
NA
São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholesaler 30 Kg bags Local Market
843 764
Uruguay broken 100 % Srtx FOB Bagged NA 340
Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk 330 320
Uruguay Milled Tipo 1 FOT Brazil Border 600
USA WR LG V W M 5 pct Br FAS Lake Charles Bulk
NA
PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min
$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt $ Euro
Italy Long Grain Indica 385 285 392 295 348 300
Brazil Lungo Fino Indica Tipo 1 Pelotas RGS
58/10 286 343 257
295
Brazil Longo Fino T 1 Sorriso Mato Grosso 58/10 NA
Italy Medium Grain Japonica 472 350 379 285 464 400
Italy Paddy LG Japonica 330 812 700
Italy Round Grain
396 416
285
359 310
Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm Krasnodar
10500 Rouble
355 300
Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government 2013-14
1320 Rps
214
Free Market average North to South 1440 Rps
240
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 4
Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 410 300 280
Thai Long Grain Indica Paddy Bath /Mt 245 New crop
Thai Fragrant Paddy Bath /Mt
China Medium Grain Japonica Paddy Government min Price
444 530
China early crop LG Indica Paddy Government minimum price
386 432
448
Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry Paddy average quality
300 220 210
Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404
CAMBODIA $ EURO $
Euro/ Mt
$ Euro
Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB FOB bulk
FCL
Jasmine Phka Malis 5 pct 92 % pure Grade A Duoble Polished Sorted
920 935
920
Jasmine Phka Malis 5 pct 85 % pure Grade B - D P
810
W Rice Long Grain Broken Sortex 2 % Broken max
505
480
W Rice Long Grain Broken Sortex 5 % Broken max DP
455
WRLG Well milled 5 % Br 450
Fragrant top Qlty Sorted Sen Kra Oub 5 % 750
Jasmin Broken 100 % Srtx WM 560
Fragrant Sen Kra Broken A 1 SUPER 480
Standard broken well milled 520 390
Parboiled Sortex 5 % LG w milled 520
Organic Jasmine Phka Malis 5% 92 % pure 1350
Organic Brown Jasmine Phka Mali natural 1250
USA Ex mill bulk in FCL $ $c/CWT $/MT $c/cwt USD/Mt
LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS 595 27.5 26.00
LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana 27 23.00
MEDIUM Californian 1 /4 pct broken 827 34 44.50 981
SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1 34.5 45.00
Parboiled SRTX 4 % Br - L G Arkns/Lsn/Txs/ aver.
33
30.00
Broken Second Heads LG Louisiana 374 19.5 18.00
Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal 329 24.5 27.00
Brewers Broken average 17 18.00
Brewers Broken California Medium 18.5 22.00
Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana 130
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 5
2 Sept
2012
10 Nov
2012
27 Jan
2013
15
August
2013
23
Dec
2013
6
Apr
2014
13
May
2014
9
August
2014
25
Jan
2015
Corn USA
Futures
8.11 7.38 7.20 4.73 4.31 5.04 5.10 3.670 3.83
Wheat Soft
Red W
USA
futures
8.73 8.86 7.70 6..31 6.13 6.8 7.14 5.532 5.23
US Paddy
Rice Future
15.01 14.94 15.26 15.55 15.49
15.81 15.30 12.715 11.31
Euro /USD 1.2577 1.2712 1.3469 1.3305 1.3688 1.3753 1.371 1.3419 1.1634
RICE MARKET GENERAL VIEW
Prices moving lower and lower in SE Asia
World rice trade expected high at 42.5 Mio Mt in 2014/15 World ending year stocks down 7% from a year earlier. India and Thailand account for the bulk of the decline. At 20.3%, the stocks-to-use ratio is the lowest since 2007/08.
Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475 million tons (milled basis).
Myanmar expected to export 1.5 Mio Mt milled rice in 2014/15
Guyana export forecasted at 500.000 Mt milled basis in 2015
China import expected at 4.7 Mio Mt in 2015
Syria import will reach the 200.000 Mt in 2015
Paraguay will increase Rice area by 30.000 Ha in 2015
Pakistan Punjab Basmati production suffered 200.000 Mt paddy losses.
Australia’s 2014/15 crop to increase their surface of about 20.000 Ha
Thailand will replace India in pole position as exporter in 2014/2015 with 11.5 Mio Mt
India could reduce the non-Basmati and Basmati export in 2014/15. Total exports at 10.5 Mio Mt
Cuba 2014/15 crop expected 10.000 Mt more on last year
California 2014/2015 rice production projected at (1.378.000 Mt) a decline of 23 % on last year.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 6
North Korea 2014/15 crop expected down to 1.7 Mio Mt.
South Korea 2014/15 production forecasted 100.000 Mt Less on last year
Indonesian crop expected 0.7 Mio Mt lower in 2014/15.
Brazil production forecasted down 0.2 Mio Mt in 2014/15 to 8.30 Mio Mt
Venezuela production lowered to 370.000 Mt in 2014/15.
U.S. 2014/15 production forecast to 10 Mio Mt all rice varieties (2013/14 was 8.5 Mio Mt )
Main increase will be on long grain surface.
U.S. 2015 imports forecast to 670,000 tons based on a larger U.S. crop.
Philippines forecasted to import 1.8 Mio Mt in 2014-2015
Ivory Coast forecasts to import 1.150 Mio Mt in 2015
EU expects to import 1.4 Mio Mt milled basis
Madagascar forecasts to import 350.000 Mt in 2015
Nigeria imports 2015 forecasted at 3.5 Mio Mt (500.000 Mt more than last year)
Turkey expected to import 350.000 Mt in 2015 (110.000 Mt more than last year)
Saudi Arabia imports expected lower 120.000 Mt less than last year at 1.325 Mio Mt
Sierra Leone will import 50.000 Mt more than last year at 270.000 Mt in 2015
Ghana will import 120.000 Mt less in 2015 at 600.000 Mt milled basis
Senegal import will remain stable at 1.200 Mio Mt broken rice import
South Africa will import 100.000 Mt more Parboiled in 2015 at 1.100 Mio Mt
Indonesia claimed a zero import forecast in 2015 due to comfortable stocks and crop?
China finalized in 2014 end year a 2 Mio Mt milled rice purchase with Thailand, half old crop and half new crop
Rice to be loaded in 2015.
Italian Government introduced a direct help to Rice farmers of about Euro 100/Ha independently from the EU –
CAP policy to compensate the losses due to high import quantity of long grain Indica Rice from foreign origins
at zero import tax and quotas.
USA farmers & millers increased pressure on Government to re-enter a 450.000 Mt Rice market in Cuba asap. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 105 million tons milled rice equivalent.
EUROPEAN RICE IMPORTS
Campaign period 1-Sept to – 13 January 2015 (Milled rice basis)
2013/2014 EU Total Rice imports: 1.353.000 Mt
2012/2013 EU Total Rice imports: 1.191.000 Mt
2014/2015 New Campaign
Total Cumulative Import starting 1 September 2014
286.500 Mt Indica
26.500 Mt Japonica
146.500 Mt Broken
EU IMPORTS MT
2009-10
12 Months
2010-11
12 Months
2011-12
12 M
2012-13
12 M
2013 -14
12 M
2014/15
Sept –Jan
BASMATI TOTAL 313.000 318.000 354.000 351.000 384.000 87.000
INDIA SHARE 220.000 174.000 293.000 297.000 237.000 50.500
PAKISTAN SHARE 60.000 73.000 147.000 36.550
UK total imported
quantities
197.000
172.000 162.000 38.000
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 7
EU -Milled Rice Cumulative EXPORT- 2014/15 Campain ( Start 1 Sept 2014 )
Japonica 87.000 Mt
Indica 9.500 Mt
ZERO IMPORT TAX RICE
The European Union's (EU) rice imports including milled and semi-milled, from the Least Developed
Countries (LDCs) of Asia such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar under the Everything But Arms (EBA)
Agreement have increased about 5% on last year, according to data from the , the National Agency for Rice.
Under the EBA clause, the EU imports rice from the LDCs at zero-percent duty. It was basically aimed to raise
incomes and living standards of farmers in the LDCs. Rice imports (milled equivalent) from EBA countries
mostly Cambodia and Myanmar) increased about forty times to around 402,000 tons in MY 2013-14 from just
10,000 tons in MY 2008-09, according to the new Chairman of Copa-Cogeca.
Italy, the main rice producer, has been expressing its concern that the competitiveness of Italian rice has
been declining significantly due to an increase in imports from EBA countries. The Italian government and the
(National Agency for Rice) have been urging the EU to adopt a safeguard clause to curtail imports from EBA
countries.
They also submitted their intention to the EU. Recently, the new Chairman of Copa- Cogeca (The
united voice of farmers and their co-operatives in the European Union) Rice Working Party has also stressed
the need for the adoption of a safeguard clause.
The Italian Agriculture Undersecretary noted that zero duty imports from the EBA countries had started
in 2001 as a unilateral plan of the EU to support EBA countries, but it cannot be continued considering the
disadvantages to local rice sector.
USA Rice Figures
Mio Cwt 2013/14 Mio Mt 2014/15 Forecast Mio Mt Variation
Production 190 8.618 221 10.024 + 16.3 %
Imports 23 22
Exports 92.5 103.00
Ending stocks 32.00 1.451 41.00 1.859 +28 .1%
22.0462 CWT x 1 Metric Ton
Week US Sales ending 8 January 2015
Rice sales of 76,900 Mt Milled Basis
Mexico (53,600 MT), Taiwan (9,000 MT), Haiti (7,400 MT), Iraq (3,000 MT), and Jordan (2,100 MT). Japan
(3,500 MT) Colombia (1,300 MT)
Rice Loading last week: 44,900 MT
Iraq (31,500 MT), Mexico (3,900 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Honduras (1,600 MT), and South Korea (1,200
MT).
****
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 8
Smelling Cuban business ………………………
First U.S. Envoy Heads to Cuba to Start Normalization Talks
After officially breaking ties with Cuba in 1961, the U.S. in 1977 converted its former embassy, a six-
story building near Havana’s Malecon seaside promenade, into an Interests Section in order to maintain
communications with the governments of first Fidel and now Raul Castro. While the office gives the U.S. a
presence in the capital, it officially operates under the auspices of Switzerland. Obama has said the U.S. will
reestablish the embassy as part of the thaw, though Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, has said he’ll
attempt to block funding for it. The short-term agenda for Jacobson’s visit involves getting the embassy set up,
including a relaxation of travel restrictions that prevents Cuban and U.S. officials from venturing beyond the
capital cities. An important priority for the U.S. is that ordinary Cubans be allowed to visit the embassy
without restrictions, the official said.
The following is the data for exports from the United States to the Republic of Cuba relating to the
Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSRA) of 2000, which re-authorized the direct
commercial (on a cash basis) export of food products (including branded food products) and agricultural
products (commodities) from the United States to the Republic of Cuba, irrespective of purpose. The TSRA
does not include healthcare products, which remain authorized by the Cuban Democracy Act (CDA) of 1992.
2014 Ranking Product U.S. Dollar Value % Of Total U.S.
Exports To Cuba 1 Frozen Chicken US$134,155,316.00 50.4%
2 Soybean Oil Cake US$55,906,631.00 21.0%
3 Soybeans US$30,573,457.00 11.5%
4 Corn US$28,244,744.00 10.6%
5 Mixed Animal Feeds US$9,382,144.00 3.5%
6 Herbicides US$6,312,898.00 2.4%
7 Frozen Pork US$1,313,627.00 .50%
8 Frozen Turkey US$96,350.00 .036%
9 Soups/Broths US$41,950.00 .016%
10 Breads/Biscuits/Coo
kies
US$12,000.00 .005%
PAKISTAN
RICE PRODUCTION EXPECTED LOWER BY 7 % on last year
Pakistan Milled Rice production estimates for 2014-15 is about 6.7 million tons which is down by -7 %
from last year production of 7.2 million tons due to recent flooding which impacts rice (non basmati & basmati
production) negatively and final figures would be lower than current expectation.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 9
Officials revealed the floods have affected standing paddy crops on 300,000 acres, cotton on 320,000
acres, sugarcane on 70,000 acres, and other crops on 100,000 acres of land.
Rice is Pakistan’s third largest crop in terms of area sown, after wheat and cotton. About 11 percent of
Pakistan’s total agricultural area is rice. (2.750.000 Ha)
Pakistan is a leading producer and exporter of Basmati and IRRI rice (white rice). Rice production
comprises 40 percent of Basmati type and 60% of coarse types. Rice ranks as second amongst the staple food grain
crop in Pakistan and it is a major source of foreign exchange earnings. Pakistan grows a high quality of rice to
fulfill the domestic demand and also for exports.
2014/15 Export expected at 3.6 Mio Mt Milled Rice basis all varieties.
Traditionally, about 45% of the crop is used for local consumption, with the balance exported. Pakistanis, in
general, prefer the higher priced Basmati rice which is consumed by more affluent consumers due to the price
differential with IRRI rice.
According to trade sources an estimated 200,000 tons of 100% broken rice is used in poultry and animal feed
annually.
Rupee exchange rate influence on Rice exports:
Sept 2013 PKR/USD……104.7
Jan 2014 ………………...105.05
March 2014…………….…99.5
April 2014….………..…....96.03
August 2014 ………..….…98.76
Sept 2014 ……………... .102.04-108.5
14 October 2014………...102.86
20 January 2015……........100.8
Main Destinations 2013 July-2014 July & Exported quantities
Non-Basmati MT Basmati Mt
Benin 132.000 Italy 10.000
China 320.000 Oman 38.000
Cameroon 42.000 Qatar 13.000
Kenya 345.000 Spain 16.000
Saudi Arabia 69.000 UK 57.000
Ivory Coast 93.000 UAE 99.000
Guinea 73.000 USA 15.500
Madagascar 238.000 Yemen 44.000
Mauritania 62.000 Saudi Arabia 34.000
Mozambique 113.000 France 7.800
Sierra Leone 33.000 Belgium 31.200
Tanzania 113.000
VIETNAM Food Association vows to buy all farmers' rice
2014 Paddy rice production estimated at 45 Mio Mt (27 Mio Mt Milled Rice equivalent).
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 10
The Vietnamese government will speed up restructuring of the rice sector this year to increase output
efficiency and farmers' income, Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported. Under the restructuring plan, some
104,000 hectares of farming area will be covered by other crops such as maize, pushing the year's total rice
cultivation area to 7.6 million hectares. The plan will create favourable conditions for farmers to switch from
growing rice to fruits such as orange and banana.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development says Vietnam's rice production was estimated at
45 million tonnes last year, up almost 800,000 tonnes over the previous year.
It is clear the actual export price of top quality Rice Long grain 5 % broken has a negative performance
in the P & L of the farmers. The Viet Nam Food Association (VFA) has promised that it will buy all rice from
farmers this year regardless of gloomy export prospects.
Rice exports are expected to face difficulties this year as China, the largest importer of Vietnamese rice,
tightens imports via border gates and puts quotas on its companies. China imported 30% of total rice exports of
Vietnam in 2014. VFA chairman cited stiff competition from major rice exporters such as Thailand, India and
Pakistan in terms of both quality and price as a big challenge in 2015.
Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, was likely to sell out its huge volume of stockpiled rice this
year, putting Vietnamese businesses under the pressure of falling rice prices, he added. Financial difficulties,
poor cultivation planning and outdated technology also hindered local companies.
World rice demand was likely to rise or at least remain the same, so Vietnamese exporters should
actively seek ways to win contracts and set firm footholds in foreign markets.
Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade said the country exported 7.5 million tons of rice in 2014.
Vietnam sold some 6.5 million tons of rice to world market via official exports, pocketing USD2.84 billion in
2014. The average export price of Vietnamese rice in 2014 was USD436.92/ton.
The year 2014 posted the third consecutive year when China has remained the largest consumer of
Vietnamese rice, while importing 2.1 million tons of rice from Vietnam via official exports.
In addition to official exports, Vietnam sold around one million tons of rice to China via cross-
border transactions in 2014, bringing total figure of Vietnamese rice export volume last year to 7.5 million
tons.
Rice prices in Thailand and Vietnam fell this week under rising supply pressure, with the Thai
government planning a major tender next week and Vietnam set to harvest its main crop from late
February.
Thai benchmark 5% broken rice stood at $405 to $416 a metric ton free-on-board (FOB) on
Wednesday, with the old grain from government stocks standing at $405/ton and new-crop grain at $416,
against the $410 to $420 range in place since November.
A team has been put together to ensure off-season rice prices do not fall lower than they did last year,
Commerce Minister C. Sarikalya said Wednesday adding he would consider introducing new measures to help
farmers if prices plunge.
Thailand’s government plans over 2 years to sell off its huge stocks, which totaled nearly 17
million tons, accumulated under a pledging scheme by the previous government. “Whenever there is a big
auction, rice prices won’t move much because there is always the rice auctioning to support the market,” said a
Bangkok-based trader.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 11
Vietnamese rice prices, already at the lowest in at least 10 months due to thin buying demand,
could fall further next month when harvesting of the winter-spring crop gathers steam, traders said Wednesday.
“Shipments in February are risky due to Tet holidays and thin supply, while rice loaded in March will be safe,”
said a Vietnamese exporter in the Mekong Delta province of Dong Thap, referring to the possibility of delays.
The Tet festival marks the Lunar New Year, with all markets closed between Feb. 14 and 23.
On January 23, 2015, White Rice long grain 5% broken rice stood at $370 to $380/ton, FOB
Saigon Port, for February to March loading, from $380 a week ago. The W Rice 25% broken variety
eased to $340 to $350/ton, from $350 to $360 last Wednesday.
Vietnam could export 900,000 tons in the first quarter of 2015, a state-run newspaper on Wednesday
cited the Vietnam Food Association as saying. The forecast volume would be nearly 37% lower than a year
ago.
It is expected that the demand from G2G markets, including the Philippines, may reach 2.5 million tons
in 2015 (common white 5%, 15% and 25% broken rice).
Also, according to Nang, though Vietnamese rice exporters have received signs from importers about
demands, they still have not obtained any contracts with considerable export volume for 2015.
“The demand is big. But whether we can sell rice will still depend on the competition between us and
other exporters,” Nang commented. Meanwhile, analysts warned that Vietnamese exporters should be aware
of Thailand, a strong rival that now has a high inventory index. An analyst said it is difficult to predict how
much rice Vietnam will export in 2015 because of the instability of the Chinese market.
China is now Vietnam’s largest rice importer. However, according to Nguyen D B, a renowned rice
expert, China is also being eyed by Thailand and India. “We have been relying on the Chinese market, but the
market’s demand remains an unknown,” he said, adding that Vietnam will face big challenges in the short term
and medium term with other exporters, especially in exporting common rice.
An official of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) noted that the existence of too many rice varieties has
reduced Vietnam’s rice competitiveness. “In the common white rice market segment, for example, we offer at
least 10 rice varieties. Meanwhile, some importers only accept rice with homogenous quality and variety,” he
said.
The official noted that Vietnam has not been able to successfully exploit African markets which
import 14 million tons of common white rice a year. It still cannot penetrate East African markets, and has
only exported small volumes of rice to Ghana and Ivory Coast in West Africa
****
Per-capita rice consumption is about 136.8 kilograms, the country needs, each year, additional 150,000
tons milled rice to face consumption increase.
Area planted 2013/14: 4.300.000 ha
Milled rice production 2013/2014: approx. 28.000.000 Mt = to 2012/13 campaign
Exports forecast end 2014: 7.000.000 Mt
Last year on a total of 6.630.000 Mt of milled rice were exported, the quantity to Asia represented
4.100.000 Mt followed by Africa with import only 1.832.000 Mt.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 12
On the quality exported WR LG 5 % broken represented 3.597.000 Mt, WRLG 15 at 1.800.000 Mt and WRLG
25 only 900.000 Mt plus 600.000 Mt of Jasmine /Fragrant rice.
THAILAND
Thailand achieved its highest-ever rice export volume of 10.8 million tons last year, enabling the
country to reclaim its crown as the world's largest rice exporter, according to the Commerce Ministry.
The target for this year is to continue the huge export volume in a range of 10 million to 11 million tons.
Commerce Minister General C. Sarikalya said yesterday that 10.8 million tons of rice valued at US$5.37
billion (Bt174.8 billion) were shipped overseas last year.
This was some 64% higher than the 2013 level of 6.6 million tons, and 22% above last year's value of $4.42
billion."Thailand was able to ship more rice last year and will continue to export a large volume this year,
thanks to closer cooperation between the government and private exporters to help release rice from the
stockpiles," he said.
STOCKS
End July 2014 Government received and paid, in their warehouse between Oct 2013-Feb 2014 a total
of 11.7 Mio Mt Paddy (7.6 Mio Milled Rice) to be added to previous years old stock unsold balance. End July
2013 the total paddy received in 2012-2013 campaign , under Paddy pledge scheme were 20 Mio Mt paddy
basis or (13.2 Mio Mt milled rice). End September 2012 the total paddy received in 2011-2012 campaign ,
under Pledge Paddy scheme were approx. 10 Mio Mt paddy for end June (6.6 Mio milled rice).
What is the real balance of milled rice exportable, in good condition, available today in all Government
warehouse today? On March end 2014 government rice stocks were officially at approximately 20 million
metric tons paddy, of which 12 to 13 million metric tons are old-crop rice stocks, which are carried over from
the 2011/12 and 2012/13 rice programs and the remainders are from the current 2013/14 pledging program.
Rice Exports 2014:
Total exports 2014 December .…….9.492.000 Mt
Total exports in 2013…………….. 6.620.000 Mt all qualiies included. (12 months)
THAI RICE PRODUCTION TRENDS
Year Surface 000 Ha Paddy 000 Production Price Paddy /Mt Yield/mt/ha/paddy
2000 9.890 25.850 Mt 108 2.6
2010 10.224 31.500 Mt 320 3.08
2015 NA 27.500 Mt 245(7867 bath) NA
Major Rice Crops in the year cover 8.750.000 Ha equivalent to 24 Mio Mt Paddy out of which:
Northern Rice represent an area of 6.500.000 Ha, Northeast Rice area 10.400.000 Ha and Central Plain Rice
area 5.800.000 Ha.
The Office of Agriculture and Economics (OAE) estimates Thailand's rice production from the main
crop of 2014-15 at 27.1 million tonnes. Due to the end of the Pledging Paddy Scheme the income of the
farmers will be considerably different. Farmers earned an average 7,862 and 7,878 baht /ton of paddy in
November and December, respectively, when a large volume of paddy entered the market.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 13
The figures were lower than the 8,130 baht farmers received last year on same paddy quality.
The OAE reported that since the start of the season last October 2014, 25.5 million tonnes of paddy were
harvested.
INDIA 61.59 Rps /1 $
West Africa market to remain main outlet for Indian Rice
370.000 Mt of Milled Rice are under loading in Kakinada Port to Africa
Indian Government will try to reduce the FCI purchase quantities of Rice in order to reduce the total
Government stocks.
Huge loss in quantity and quality has been verified every years in FCI storage , due to low quality of
the warehousing and other storage condition all over India (15 % on total stored approximately). The
Government in any case has to consider in their Stock reduction policy the minimum quantities needed on
their Rice distribution subsidies to poor family all over India .(Food Bill)
India has crashed the price of non-basmati rice as competition between Thailand and Vietnam get
tougher. India reduced white rice low grade 25% broken export price category to $360-355/ton FOB vessel in
50 kg bags.
The country’s parboiled sorted long grain non-basmati rice was quoted less than $390/ton FOB last
week. Surplus rice stockpiles in the country and improved methods of production have helped to position India
competitively in the global rice market.
Ahead of the 2015 general elections in Nigeria, the Parboiled rice quantities to be imported will
increase to 3.5 Mio Mt in order for the Government to secure distribution to domestic consumers as a populist
measure.(500.000 Mt more than last year).
RICE INDIA
X 000 Mt 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 forecast
Paddy Production 158.000 160.000 150.000
Milled Production 105.000 106.000 101.000 max
Export milled 10.900 10.000 8.500
Ending Stocks 26.800 21.800 18.000
MIN GOV Stock required 11.800 11.800 11.800
The Ministry of Agriculture released the first advance estimates of food grain production for the Indian
Crop Year 2014/15 (July-June), pegging India’s kharif grain production at 120.3 million metric tons (MMT),
nearly 9 MMT lower than last year, and 11 MMT lower than the record kharif grain production in 2011/12.
The Government of India estimates kharif season as follows:
Rice production kharif crop at 88 Mio Mt (vs. 91.7 MMT last year),
Rice production rabi crop at 13 Mio Mt (vs. 14.9 MMT last year).
Government Central Pool Rice stocks trend –Milled Equivalent
Ending Stocks FCI end May 2014 declared at 28 ,00Mio Mt
Ending Stocks in October 2014 expected at 25,250 Mio Mt
Ending Stocks in October 2015 forecasted at 18.5 Mio Mt
Ending Stocks in January 2015 declared at 23.00 Mio Mt
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 14
BASMATI RICE
Offer will over cross demand in 2015, exports prices under pressure.
Increase in import duty by Iran on basmati rice from India to 45% from 20% has hurt Punjab farmers
and exporters alike as it has led to a drop in the demand for the aromatic food grain lowering its rates in the
domestic market. Buoyed by last season's prices, Punjab farmers had increased the area under basmati
considerably who are now getting lower rates for their produce as compared to the previous year.
Area under basmati is 8.16 lakh hectares (20.40 lakh acres) this year, up from 5.50 lakh hectares in
2013. Sources said output of basmati paddy is likely to touch 40 lakh tonnes this year.
New Paddy basmati variety, Pusa 1509, is selling in the range of Rs 2,300-2,700/quintal.
Rice millers, traders and exporters say even the rates of paddy Pusa 1121, arrivals of which will start in the
first week of November, are not going to cross Rs 3,000 /quintal. Paddy Pusa 1121 had touched Rs
4,400/quintal last season.
Farmers have shifted significant area away from coarse grain non-Basmati varieties to long-grain
Basmati varieties due to strong Basmati price in 2013/14 and a growing popularity for a new, shorter duration
Basmati variety (PUSA Basmati 1509).
While the official estimates for planting Basmati and coarse varieties are not available, field sources
report a shift of about 25-30 percent from non-Basmati rice to the new 1509 Pusa” Basmati “ variety. Pusa
1509 it is not yet approved as Basmati into the EU.
NEW DELHI, January 21 .2015
Following are today’s quotations (in Rs per quintal ex Mill Haryana-Punjab):
Basmati White Pure rice new crop 10.000-9000 $ 1675-1464
Basmati White common new crop 6.100
Rice Pusa Basmati White (1121) new crop 4800
Sharbati LG White rice new crop 3700
Sharbati Steamed LG 4800
Pusa W R LG -1509 new variety 3900 $ 640
Parmal WR Long Grain 5 % Standard 2,000
Parmal WR LG 5 % high quality n/c 2250
Parmal Parboiled LG 2400
Parboiled Permal Lg 6.3 mm 2,500
WR IR-8 MG-Short 5 mm 1,900
Transport from Punjab to loading port on East Coast, staffing in container, Packing material, Fobbing cost,
export duties, custom fees and exporters profit to be added to the price ex mill.
India’s basmati & aromatic milled rice production is expected to reach around 8.8 million tons
in 2013-14, from around 6.5 million tons produced in the previous year.
LAST NEWS
India's rice exporters may end the current fiscal on a damp note as Iraq has doubled the import duty
to 40%, while Iran has clamped an outright ban at a time when price realization has slipped 15-20% in
overseas markets. A senior official of All India Rice Exporters' Association (AIREA) told that traders are
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 15
currently shipping only rice consignments with permits of last year to Iran. "We are hoping that Iran will lift
the ban. We are planning to send a delegation to Iran in early February to sort out the issue," said the official,
requesting not to be named. The official added that the sudden increase in import duty by Iraq has come as a
major blow and it is bound to impact exports to the country.
According to an estimate by exporters, basmati shipments are likely to come down to 35 lakh tons from
37 lakh tons (3.700.000 Mt) in the previous year. Iran has barred rice from other countries as its local crop
is reported to be good this year and is set to arrive in the market there.
Iran imported over 12.5 lakh tons of rice during April-July 2014, compared with 14.5 lakh tons in the
year-ago period. In the past 2 years, Iran has bought over 2.5 million tons of Aromatic Pusa Basmati rice from
India.
The average price realization has declined to $1,100/ton from $1,300/ton last year. Exports of Aromatic rice in
the first 7 months of the current fiscal declined over 8% to 19.36 lakh tons from 21.13 lakh tons in the year-ago
period. However, exports of non-basmati rice between April and October 2014 stayed almost the same as in
the previous year, at about 4.2 lakh tons.
The lackluster export demand of basmati rice has pushed down prices in the domestic market as well,
with farmers getting Rs 3,200/quintal for Pusa 1121 crop, compared with Rs 4,100 last year. Retail prices of
basmati rice may fall further in the domestic market if exports slump.
Output of basmati rice in the kharif, or summer, season in 2014 was robust at about 81 lakh tons, up from 66
lakh tons in the previous year.
BASMATI EXPORT TREND (Oct-Oct)
2011-12 campaign shipped quantities were 3.178.000 Mt
2012-13 campaign shipped quantities increase 3.459.000 Mt
2013-14 campaign shipment reached 3.757.000 Mt
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE Rs/100 Kg
Crop 2008/09 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Rice, paddy 9,300 10,300 11,100 12,800 13,450 14,000
Wheat 10,000 11,000 11,200 12,850 13,500
Corn 8,400 8,800 9,800 11,750 13,100
Sorghum 8,400 8,800 9,800 15,000 15,000
Pearl millet 8,400 8,800 9,800 11,750 13,100
Chickpeas 16,000 17,600 21,000 28,000 30,000
Lentils 17,000 18,700 22,500 28,000 29,000
Exchange
Rate –
USD/INR
45.99 47.42 50.15 53.00 60.0 61.5
CAMBODIA Jan 20, 2015
Cambodia is looking for option buyers. In a bid to stock 1.2 million tons of rice paddy, Cambodia has
sent a draft memorandum of understanding to China asking the country for a $300 million loan to build more
than 10 warehouses nationwide. The draft MoU was prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Finance and
sent to the Chinese government late last month, according to M.Kalyan, senior adviser for the Supreme
National Economic Council (SNEC) and leader of the project.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 16
Cambodia is now waiting for the Chinese government’s response and expects to begin the project mid-
year. “We will build warehouses that ensure the good quality of the paddy, our goal is to build confidence to
creditors so that those who store their paddy can use it as collateral for bank loans.”
The warehouse would be built by the government; it would be run by the private sector, with revenue
coming from millers paying maintenance fees to have their paddy stored during the harvest season.
“The success of this project depends strongly on participants from the private sector. A major portion of
Cambodian paddy is exported to neighboring countries through unofficial channels during the harvest season.
Because of this, millers face severe paddy shortages once the season is over. Vice president of Cambodia Rice
Federation said that developing the warehouse system would help millers find more stable sources of paddy
storage. If the government charges a low fee for millers to rent a place to stock their rice, it will increase the
competitiveness of the Cambodian rice sector in some ways,” he said.
Rice Exports quantities update on 31 DEC 2014
CHINA
China's central bank has raised its re-lending quota by 50 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) to boost financial
support for agriculture. Re-lending is a monetary tool used by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the
country's central bank, to increase financial institutions' liquidity and guide credit flows.
They will require funds from the quota be credited to small and micro-businesses, as well as the
agricultural sector, rural areas and farmers, the PBOC said in a statement.
CHINA GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS PRODUCTION
Milled rice production 2014/15 forecasted at 143.000.000 Mt in average with 2 previous years
Ending stocks 2015 estimate at 45 Mio Mt which is 2 Mio Mt less compared to 2012/3 campaign
Imports estimated at 4.5 Mio Mt in 2014/15 campaign which is 0.5 Mio Mt more than 2013/14
Total human consumption 2014/15 estimated at 148 Mio Mt
Minimum price Paddy Rice 2014/15 campaign.
Japonica paddy Yuan 3200/Mt ex farm gate
Indica Early paddy Yuan 2750/Mt ex farm gate
CAMBODIA
EXPORTS
Monthly 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1. January 10,012 6,798 9,703 25,730 21,500
2. February 13,644 5,089 14,417 24,100 27,000
3. March 5,062 12,534 12,310 45,400 35,750
4. April 17,287 17,946 15,036 23,280 35,960
5. May 5,499 20,520 13,115 28,345 27,970
6. June 17,990 4,274 13,426 29,100 29,650
7. July 15,030 12,703 20,527 31,400 26,050
8. August 5,997 20,404 15,530 29,360 29,870
9. September 4,744 14,384 15,169 29,400 35.500
10. October 6,078 19,067 16,967 28,000 35.420
11. November 7,988 9,559 25,189 37,800 31.137
12. December 9,645 44,905 34,328 46.800-- 51.137
Total Yearly 105,260 201,900 205,100 378,000 387.000
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 17
IMPORTS-EXPORTS RICE BY COUNTRY ORIGIN –China Official figures
IMPORTS IMPORTS Import
Forecast
X 000 Mt Milled rice 2012/13 2013/14 2015
Vietnam official 1.600 NA
Pakistan 625 NA
Thailand 217 2.000 Contract signed
Laos 23 NA
Cambodia 18 NA
Myanmar un official 150 900
Total 2.600 4.500
FORECAST 2015
China's rice production in the 2014/15 season (started in July with the harvest of the early double crop)
will recover, after output declined for the first time in 10 years during 2013/14.
Expert forecast for production to grow by 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 143.6mn tons, based on a return to
more favorable weather and continued government support for the rice sector.
Overall, rainfall has been favorable over most of the rice producing areas. As a result, yields are likely to be
at 6.72 ton/ha, above the five-year average.
Meanwhile, strong government support for production will boost plantings and the area harvested is
estimated to reach a record high of 30.6 Mio ha, up 1.0% y-o-y.
In spite of the increase in output, China will record a supply deficit in 2014/15 for the third consecutive year,
as rice consumption continues to grow mildly but still at a faster pace than production.
The decrease in domestic supply, coupled with attractive import prices compared with domestic quotes, has
led to a steep increase in imports since 2011/12.
Rice imports will remain at elevated levels in 2014/15, over the 4.0 Mio Mt milled basis, in line with the
2013/14 levels.
MIDDLE EAST RICE DEMAND
IRAQ FOOD IMPORT TREND
Year
Import
Milled Rice
000 Mt
Wheat
000 Mt
Sugar
000 Mt
USD/IQD
Exchange rate
Crude Oil
production
000 bbl/day
1960 70 170 Na
1970 100 150 175
1980 350 1300 750
1990 500 2300 500 3000
2000 950 3200 570 2500
2005 1.250 4900 875 1200
2013 1.350 3250 950 1145 3000
2014 1.450 3000 320 1185
IRAQ
Production
2014
170 3.500 0.00
Population Mio
2013 33.5
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 18
IRAN FOOD IMPORT TREND
Depreciation of the IRR and new low Crude Oil price will cut the Iranian food import capacity in future .
Year
Import
Milled Rice 000
Mt
Wheat
000 Mt
Sugar
000 Mt
USD/IRR
Exchange rate
Crude Oil
production
000 bbl/day
1960 20 500 290
1970 60 450 66
1980 600 1800 700 2800
1990 600 4000 750
2000 800 6300 960
2005 1500 1100 850 8000 Dec 4000
2012 2100 6600
2013 1650 4800 1550 10000 Dec
2014 1700 5500 1500 27800 Dec 3100
IRAN
Production
2014
1600 13000 950
Population Mio 66,5
MYANMAR
2012/2013, rice paddy production was at 17.3 MMT.
In 2013/2014 paddy production is expected to increase to 19.8 MMT
In 2013/14, rice production area was approximately 7.0 million HA as farmers shift their cultivation to
summer rice varieties that are better suited for the dry season and also meets Chinese consumer demands.
Expected yields should increase by 3.7%. Consumption estimated for milled rice at 11.7 Mio MT for
2013/2014.(equivalent to 19 Mio Mt Paddy) . So if the expected level of production for 2014 will not be
reached the export availability can be very low.
Chinese imports are based on low quality (25% Emata Mg), typically exported to Africa. Chinese pay
cash at the border, truck by truck, getting a considerable advantage on the Fob export value from Yangon port.
Once in China the importers will sort the Whole grain Rice and separate from broken rice. Expert consider
during 2014 an average of 3000 Mt a day crossed the Muse border with China.
A negotiating committee for private rice trading will be set up in line with the inter-ministerial
contracts between Myanmar’s Agricultural and Irrigation and China’s Administration of Quality Supervision,
Inspection and Quarantine, according to Myanmar Rice Federation
Myanmar’s rice exports hit 1.4 million tons in fiscal year 2012-13, 1.2 million tons in 2013-14 and is
expected to set a new record this year.
Rice shipments across the Sino-Burmese border, considered illegal in China, accounted for more than
two-thirds of total rice exports over the last nine months, the Ministry of Commerce announced this week.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 19
Though total rice exports reached nearly 915,000 tons from April 1 through the second week of
December, overseas exports totalled only 198,698 tons (US$70.1 million), while border exports to China and
Thailand reached 716,272 tons ($272.6 million).
The chairman of the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF), said Burma’s rice exports across the Sino-
Burmese border constituted the highest bilateral trade total, despite a Chinese ban on Burmese rice imports.
“Rice exports, from our side, are legal, but on the China side these exports are illegal, that’s why we’re
discussing with the Chinese government to legalize rice exports. One of our business missions will go to China
in the second week of next month,” he said.
Early this year, China officially banned rice imports from Burma, demanding that a trade agreement be
signed guaranteeing that most rice is milled and meets certain quality standards. China had long been—and
continues to be—one of Burma’s biggest customers for rice, much of which is harvested in the Irrawaddy
Delta and shipped over land borders in Shan and Kachin states.
According to government figures, rice exports to China through the Burmese border town of Muse to
Ruili in China accounted for the vast majority of overland exports, at 700,000 tons, while overseas rice
shipments to China reached 11,000 tons. “That is why the business delegation from the MRF and the
government will talk with the Chinese government next month to buy our rice legally over the borders,” adding
that he expected the legalization of rice exports to China would further accelerate export growth.
A bilateral agreement on rice standards would allow the MRF to legally export about one million tons of
milled rice to China, starting in January.
The chairman of the Myanmar Farmers Association said that China would continue to hold its position
as the No. 1 buyer of Burma’s rice next year. He added that a China Certification and Inspection Group would
open an office in Rangoon soon, pending its obtaining a company license from the government, and will serve
to monitor the quality of Burmese rice before exporting to China. “We expect that the rice export volume will
reach 1.5 million tons in this 2014-15 budget year. We expect 2 million tons for next budget year,” he said.
Burma’s rice exports totalled 1 million tons in the 2013-14 fiscal year.
Rice prices are also on the rise, with the grain selling for $400/ton, up from $350/ton last month, after a
heavy monsoon season lowered yields in Burma.
In October, the MRF reached an agreement with Indian rice traders to supply two states in northeaster India
with 240,000 tons of rice per year at $400/ton, although Burmese traders will incur all costs for transporting
the goods to the Indian border.
Paddy yields in Burma are among the lowest in Southeast Asia, at 2.5 metric tons/hectare. Most rice mills used
outdated machinery that produces rice with a high portion of broken grains, making it unsuitable for high-value
foreign export markets such as the European Union and Japan.
FOOD PRICES
FAO's monthly Food Price Index declined in December after 3 months of stability. Continued large
supplies and record stocks combined with a stronger US dollar and falling oil prices contributed to the decline.
The December Food Price Index averaged 188.6 points, a drop of 1.7% from November, led down by sugar
and palm oil. For the whole of 2014, the Food Price Index averaged 202 points, down 3.7% from 2013,
marking the third consecutive annual decline.
This year-on-year drop came despite FAO's sub-index for meat rising to an all-time high annual average of 199
points, up 8.1% from 2013.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 20
Cereals, by contrast, dropped 12.5%from the previous year, buoyed by forecasts of record
production and ample inventories.
FAO's Food Price Index is a trade-weighted index that tracks prices of five major food commodity groups on
international markets. It aggregates price sub-indices of cereals, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar.
Four of those indices fell in 2014 and are at, or close to their lowest levels in 5 years.
The prices of major farm produces in China rose slightly last week according to
a survey of 36 large and medium-sized cities by the Ministry of Commerce. The average wholesale price of 18
vegetables was up 1.2% compared with the previous week,
The prices of meat fluctuated, with the price of pork down 0.1, and mutton and beef going up 0.5%.
The price of grain remained stable, with the price of rice and flour remaining the same as the previous
week. The price of edible oil went down, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil and peanut oil down 0.4%, 0.2% and
0.1% respectively.
LARGE RICE SUPPLY AND STOCKS WILL KEEP PRESSURE ON ……..
CUBA TRADING CORP
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 21
CUBA GLOBAL IMPORTS BY COMMODITIES
2011 Statistics Mt Value x 1000 $ Unit Value $/Mt
1A Wheat ( wheat flour ) 805.975 323.414 401
1B Milled Rice 400.000 180.000 NA
2 Maize 712.800 240.939 338
3 Milk Whole Dried 45.535 185.095 4065
4 Chicken meat 150.358 172.174 1145
5 Cake of Soybeans 288.624 137.145 475
6 Soybean oil 88.200 110.200 1249
7 Soybeans 132.088 76.752 581
8 Food Wastes 72.570 40.410 557
9 Sausages of Pig Meat 19.409 36.639 1888
10 Milk Skimmed Dry 8.911 34.325 3852
11 Beans, dry 38.952 34.014 873
12 Coffee, green 7.542 24.558 3256
13 Food Prep 6.282 23.698 3772
14 Malt 23.163 14.494 626
15 Cheese of Whole Cow Milk 2.659 14.148 5321
16 Pig meat 4.805 13.995 2913
17 Wine 5.091 10.237 2011
18 Pastry 3.678 9.895 2690
19 Potatoes 15.974 9.539 597
More than 80% of all food consumed in Cuba is imported due to a drastic decline in the country’s
farm output since 2001.
Tourism and family remittances are the main source of foreign exchange in Cuba.
Cuba exports the services of its doctors and health personnel to other countries.
Cuba's trading gap with Venezuela has jumped by 575% from $706 million in 2002 to $4.06 billion
in 2008.
Venezuela, which supplies subsidized oil to Cuba, is the latter’s main trading partner and accounts
for nearly 27% of the total foreign trade of the island nation.
China is also a major trading partner of Cuba and accounts for 12% of its foreign trade.
Cuba Exports Cuba exported goods worth $3.253 billion in 2010, according to the latest estimates. The island nation
exported sugar, nickel, tobacco, fish, medical products, citrus and coffee. Amongst its various trading partners,
nearly 28% of the exports were to Canada, 27% to China, 6% to China and over 5% to the Netherlands
Cuba Imports Cuba’s imports were $14 billion in 2008. The island nation’s imports petroleum, food, machinery and
equipment, chemicals. Cuba’s major trading partners are Venezuela, which accounts for nearly 30% of all
imports, China (12%), Spain (10%), Canada (6.4%), the US (6.3%) and Brazil (4.6%).
Tourism income
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 22
Havana devotes significant resources to building new tourist facilities and renovating historic structures for use
in the tourism sector. Cuban officials estimate roughly 1.6 million tourists visited Cuba in 1999 with about
$1.9 billion in gross revenues. In 2000, 1,773,986 foreign visitors arrived in Cuba. Revenue from tourism
reached US $1.7 billion.
By 2012, some 3 Mio visitors brought nearly £ 2 billion year.
CUBA TRADE TURNOVER WITH EUROPEAN UNION
Year Import Export
Mio
Euro
Mio
Euro
2003 578 1,098
2005 717 1,305
2010 352 1,300
2013 837 1,834
Food represented an average of 45 % of total import from E U into Cuba in 2013 .
********************************
The Thailand rice subsidy scheme ended …
Thailand’s junta-stacked parliament voted Friday to impeach former premier Yingluck
Shinawatra, hours after prosecutors announced plans to indict her for corruption in a double blow that
risks reigniting the country’s bitter divisions.
The successful impeachment of Yingluck, the kingdom’s first female premier and the sister of former
leader Thaksin Shinawatra, carries an automatic five year ban from politics while the criminal charges could
eventually see her jailed for up to a decade. Experts say the impeachment and criminal charges are the latest
attempt by the country’s royalist elite, and its army backers, to nullify the political influence of the
Shinawatras, whose parties have won every election since 2001.
But the junta’s pursuit of the family could also disturb the uneasy calm that has descended on Thailand
since the military took over. The Shinawatras’ ‘Red Shirt’ supporters, who have lain low since the coup, will
be enraged by the twin decision – although widespread street protests are unlikely given martial law banning
political gatherings remains in place.
Both the impeachment and corruption charges revolve around her administration’s controversial rice
subsidy programme, which funnelled cash to her rural base but cost billions of dollars and inspired protests that
felled her government.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 23
A successful impeachment needed support from three fifths of the 220-seat National Legislative
Assembly, a figure easily obtained with 190 voting in favour. – Frozen out – Yingluck, 47, was toppled from
office by a controversial court ruling shortly before the army staged a coup in May last year.
She now faces years frozen out of Thailand’s political landscape. “The primary aim is to prevent her and the
Shinawatras returning to politics should the military be forced to step down and call an election.
They simply cannot compete when it comes to electoral politics,” he added.
Both Thaksin and Yingluck are loathed by many Thais in the upper and middle classes, but still
command huge loyalty from much of the rural poor – particularly in the Shinawatras’ northern strongholds,
where rice farming is a mainstay of the local economy, in what is one of the world’s largest rice exporters.
The rice subsidy scheme, which purchased the crop from farmers at around twice the market rate, was
hugely popular among the Shinawatras’ vote base but economically disastrous, leaving Thailand with huge
unsold stockpiles as regional competitors undercut their exports.
During the impeachment hearings, which lasted a fortnight, Yingluck defended the rice scheme
as a necessary subsidy to help poor farmers who historically receive a disproportionately small slice of
government cash. She also attacked the legality of impeaching someone from a position that she had already
been removed from. Analysts said it was always unlikely that the NLA – which is stacked with junta
appointees – would save Yingluck’s political career. Prominent protest leaders have warned against supporters
hitting the streets given the ban on public gatherings.
The decision to impeach will delight the coalition of upper and middle class Thais who led the protests that
eventually toppled Yingluck’s government. Since Thaksin swept to power in 2001, Shinawatra governments
have been floored by two coups and bloodied by the removal of three other premiers by the kingdom’s
interventionist courts.
*******************
INDIA FOOD DISTRIBUTION PROGRAMME
NEW DELHI, Jan 22,
India needs to become more nimble in allowing wheat and rice exports from overstocked government
silos if it wants to cut waste and get the best price for its grains, a panel appointed by Prime Minister Narendra
Modi recommended.
Despite stocks that are often more than double the government’s target, India exports only about 10 %
of its wheat and rice output of 195 million tons. The Food Corporation of India (FCI), a government behemoth
set up 60 years ago after acute food shortages forced India to import, sits on mounds of rice and wheat thanks
to bumper harvests since 2007.
Currently the government takes a call on exports and local sales after a lengthy consultation process.
The panel would like the FCI to abolish regional offices, focus on key states for procurement, invest in
computerisation and bring in technical and managerial expertise from the private sector.
“A nimble-footed FCI will help us earn precious foreign exchange and save a lot of money that is blocked in
terms of extra grains stocks that is prone to pest attack and wastage,” said Ashok Gulati, a noted economist and
a member of the panel.
Modi, who formed the panel in August to suggest an overhaul of India’s theft-prone food distribution
network, has asked the food ministry to examine the recommendations before acting on the report.
INSIDE THE RICE No. 0071 January 2015
GAOTRADE COMMODITIES [email protected]
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 [email protected] 24
India, the world’s biggest rice and wheat producer after China, runs a mammoth $18.64 billion food
welfare program. But nearly half of the ultra-cheap rice and wheat meant for the poor is either wasted or stolen,
according to various experts.
The panel also suggested the government scale down its food distribution program by covering
only 40 percent of the population, instead of 67%. However, it favored a higher monthly allocation of 7
kgs/person against 5 kgs now.
Lowering the number of beneficiaries could save India 330 billion rupees ($5.35 billion) a year in
subsidies, said Kumar, a former food minister. But the move could potentially anger millions of voters
enjoying cheap grains and would require the approval of India’s partisan parliament.
“It’s not an easy task to reduce the level of beneficiaries as a host of procedural hurdles will have to be crossed
before accepting the latest recommendations,” said B.C. Barah, a New Delhi-based agriculture economist.
MAJOR EXPORTERS COUNTRY MILLED RICE STOCKS COULD CHANGE???
