Inputs from the PROMOTE/MACC projectsLaurence Roul (INERIS)

*General Concept of the future GMES atmospheric services

*Towards the GAS.2006200720082009 201020112012MACC (ECMWF)Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate user-producer partnershipFP6 : GEMS (ECMWF)Global and regional Earth-system monitoring from in-situ and Satellite data producer-drivenESA GSE : PROMOTE1-2 (DLR)Protocol Monitoring for the Groud Segment Element Atmosphere user-drivenUser Forum for the Service atmosphere(dec. 2006, Brussels)Implementation Group of the GMES Atmospheric ServiceForum GMES(sept. 2008, Lille)Operational GAS

What has been achieved with PROMOTEService Level Agreement (SLA) signed with EEA for the provision of O3 and PM10 (tentatively) daily analysed maps Combination of model simulation and observation using simple data assimilation techniques (optimal interpolation)Use of NRT OzoneWeb dataO3 -> OK with the CHIMERE/PREVAIR approachPM -> still under development (consistency issues)Forecast issues mot covered by the SLA but information available

Improved representation of air pollution patternsBetter diagnosis of air pollution episodes (PM especially) Cross-validation, French Stations,Summer 2006

MACC follow-up : NRT analyses and validated a posteriori analysesOperational provision of NRT air quality maps on a daily/hourly basisOperational provision of validated air quality assessment reports for Europe (re-analyses)Option : air qulity forecast on a daily basis Use of modelling, in-situ an satellite data, through the methodologies developed in MACC; ensemble approach6 models involved recognised for their skills : CHIMERE (F), EMEP (N), EURAD (D), LOTOS-EUROS (NL),MATCH (S), MOCAGE (F)Strong interface with institutional users (EEA, national agencies) -> policy makers oriented products

Potential contribution to the SOER reportAnalysis of specific pollution episodes that occurred in recent years (re-analysis capacity in MACC)Accurate representation of air pollution patterns (combination of models and observations and ensemble approach)Use of in-situ and satellite data (particularly interesting for long range events) -> validated data-setsFocus on Ozone and PM

Example : PM episodes in spring 2007

Example : forest fires in summer 2007*FRP product (MSG/SEVIRI) used for estimating aerosol emissions. 25 km resolution model runsCooperation with the FREEVAL project (M. Wooster, G. van der Werf, ).First test case for ensemble re-analyses in MACC

2007-08-25 12:0526 August 10:00

What if scenarios .MACC includes a policy-support work packageAnalysis of the determinant of air pollution episodes : local vs transboundary, sources analyses

Emergency scenarios (what if)Theoritical example : 10th January 2009 ; CHIMERE runsPM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : alternating traffic (-47 ton/jr over 14O ton/jr PM10 emitted )PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : wood combustion suppressed (-753 ton/jr over 825 PM10 emitted)

ConclusionsA new generation of products tested in PROMOTE/GEMS will become operational in MACC and in the GAS (2012) : high resolution monitoring, mapping and forecasting capacities at the European scale

Daily analyses, re-analyses of pollution events, emission reduction scenarios of general interest can be covered

Sensitive issues : NRT in-situ data, extended validated datasets, maturity of Earth Observation products

User-oriented approach (SLA, workshops) , especially for policy issues (DG ENV, EEA, JRC, EPAs)

Contribution to the SOER report can be prepared : focus on specific ozone and PM episodes? Which year? Which indicators?

The GMES Atmospheric Service