INPE ACTIVITIES IN ADVANCED TOOLSDEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION FOR THEINNOVATIVE FAST REACTORS AND...

7/30/2019 INPE ACTIVITIES IN ADVANCED TOOLSDEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION FOR THEINNOVATIVE FAST REACTORS AND RELATEDFUEL CYCLES COST ASSESSMENTS

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INPE ACTIVITIES IN ADVANCED TOOLS

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION FOR THE

INNOVATIVE FAST REACTORS AND RELATEDFUEL CYCLES COST ASSESSMENTSA. ANDRIANOV, N. AYRAPETOVA, Yu. KOROVIN, V. MUROGOV, E. FEDOROVA

Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering

National Nuclear Research University MEPhI

TECHNICAL MEETING ON FAST REACTORS AND RELATED FUEL CYCLE FACILITIES WITH IMPROVED ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

IAEA Headquarters Vienna Austria, 11-13 September 2013


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CONTENT

Introduction

Conceptual framework for efficiency assessment studies

Application of MCDM methods for fast reactors and related

fuel cycles efficiency assessment studies Application of uncertainty analysis methods for fast reactors

and related fuel cycles efficiency assessment studies

Conclusion


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INTRODUCTION

The future nuclear powersystem should meetthe following basic requirements: to be resource-

sufficient and to produce a low amount of wastes in the long run, to be cost effective, to maintain

the necessary level of safety and reliability, to ensure the effective resistance to nuclear weaponsproliferation. In performing an integrated analysis on the design of the future nuclear power

structure, consideration must be given to the full range of system factors and constraints.

There is a growing understanding that the problem of efficiency assessmentand optimizing the

nuclear power system is multi-criteria. The criteria characterizing resource consumption,

economy, the risks of unauthorized proliferation and waste management, are conflicting by

nature. This means that improving the value of one criterion leads to a decrease in the values ofother criteria.

Considering the significant uncertainty specific to the problem field investigated, uncertainty

analysis is an inevitable step expected to provide better grounds for judgments. Uncertainties may

not be ignored in the assessment process and their examination should enable the decision

maker to reach a conclusion regarding the stability of results.

The development and application of state-of-the art multiple criteria decision making (MCDM)

and uncertainty analysis techniques for the innovative fast reactors and related fuel cycles cost

assessments and optimization of the nuclear power structures in multi-objective formulation is

urgently necessary. Based on this techniques decision support tools intend to highlight conflicts

and find compromises in the decision making process related to the innovative fast reactors and

related fuel cycles cost assessments.


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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR EFFICIENCYASSESSMENT STUDIES


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ADVANCED TOOLS DEVELOPMENT AND

APPLICATION IN INPE & NNRU MEPHI

Russian nuclear power prospects:

close NFC with fast reactors

Software developed : SYSTEM

EKONOM

SMAENG

GENESIS

MEDNES

ParSAM

Applications: National, regional and

global levels

Optimization of energy

and nuclear power

structures

International software used: MESSEGE

DESAE

SIMPACT

ENPEP

MAED

Assessment methodologies: sensitivity factors

system dynamics

method of unimprovable

alternatives

GW

INPE specialists have been working in the field of energy

systems forecasting for over 25 years. The working

groups have developed technical approaches to

assessing energy systems efficiency that were realized

as a set of software prognosis tools.

Since 2000 the group has been engaged in a

process of incorporation of certified internationalsoftware on energy planning into national

prognostic practice. The specialists are certified

software users.

The work has been carried out in close cooperation with

authorized international organizations, as well as Russian

and foreign research centers

Small and medium sized reactors for

regional energy supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

T EN EX E UR OD IF U SE C U RE NC O L ES /N EF

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

12 3

12

3

106 Advanced global nuclear power systems

A training course for 6Russian institutions was

organized in cooperati-

on with the IAEA.

Energy system issues areconsidered at national,

regional, inter-regional and

global levels

Special training for students and post-graduate students is

a permanent concern. Relevant training materials have

been developed by the group. Our students regularly

participate in national and international workshops andconferences.

Studies provide an in-depth

technical and policy analysis

of various NFC including such

aspects as safety, resources,

waste management, nonpro-

liferation, economics.

Multicriteriality, uncertainty,

dynamics are the key

points for consideration.

Global nuclear fuel market


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FRAMEWORK FOR EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT

MULTICRITERIALITY

UNCERTAINTYDYNAMICS &EVOLUTION

The main assessment framework standpoints:

multicriteriality, uncertainty, dynamics & evolution

Four areas of concern are determined by material flows anddetermine efficiency of fast reactors and related fuel cycles:

resources, economics, waste management and non-

proliferation.

Different levels for considerations and assessments:

the facility level, the NFC level, the nuclear power level.

EFFICIENCY

ASSESSMENT

Spent fuel

Fresh fuel

Fissile materials

Reprocessingplant

Fuel

Fabrication

Plant

Nuclear

power

plant


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MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING (MCDM)

Criteria identification

Problem formulation, goals, formalization

Formation of alternatives

Criteria assessment

Summary tables

DM/Exp/St-H preferences

Weighting Scoring

Aggregation

Uncertainty analysis

Final Recommendations

E

E

Experts, Stakeholders, Decision

Support Tools (DST)

Experts,

Stakeholders,

KB

Models, Expert- Stakeholders

judgments

DST

Expert Judgments, DST

DST, Expert Judgments

Decision Maker, Experts,

Stakeholders

DST, Models

Experts-Stakeholders for

Decision Maker


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DIALOG SYSTEM OF STOCHASTICMULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION INTERACTIVE SYSTEM FOR VISUALANALYSIS OF FEASIBLE SET BORDERS

To perform calculation based on the proposed concept systematic implementation of

MCDM and uncertainty analysis techniques the specialized software was developed

UNCERTANTY CALCULATOR

BASIC TOOLS FOR EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT

SIMPLE MCDA TOOLBOX


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APPLICATION OF MCDM METHODS FOR FASTREACTORS AND RELATED FUEL CYCLES

EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT STUDIES


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MODM: base methods

Combinatorial optimization

problems

JMetal GA framework

NSGA-II, MOCHC algorithms

Fuzzy hybrid algorithm

FMOCHC

Neural Net joined with GA

optimization

etc

THE MAIN COMPONENTS OF MCDM TECHNIQUES

MCDA: base methods

MAVT (aggregation)

AHP (pairwise comparison)

TOPSIS (distance to ideal point)

PROMETHEE (pairwise comparison based on

preference functions)

MAUT (uncertain criterion values)

Fuzzy MAVT (MAVT joined with fuzzy theory)

ProMAA (distributed criterion values and

weights)

etc

Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are a tool aimed at supporting decision makers

faced with making numerous and conflicting assessments. MCDM techniques intend to highlight conflicts

and find compromises in the decision making process. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and

Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM) are the main components of MCDM.A large number of MCDA techniques have been developed to deal with different kinds of problems

(MAVT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE, etc.). At the same time each technique has pros and cons and can

be more or less useful depending on the situation.

The methods of MODM for multi-objective optimization problem solving are various: a priorimethods; a

posteriorimethods; adaptive methods; methods based on the preliminary construction of the Pareto set

approximation.

BASIC TOOL FOR MATERIAL FLOW CALCULATION


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BASIC TOOL FOR MATERIAL FLOW CALCULATION

AND MODM IMPLEMENTATION

MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their GeneralEnvironmental Impacts) is a large-scale dynamic system engineering optimization model

used for medium- and long-term energy planning, energy policy and energy developmentscenarios analysis.

The software was originally developed by the International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis. Currently, this software is supported by the IAEA, and is used in the toolbox ofthe INPRO project.

MESSAGE software is a flexible modeling environment that allows the user to formulatea linear programming problem, find the optimal solution and process the calculationresults.

MULTI OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION MODULES FOR


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MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION MODULES FOR

NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEMS STUDIES

ConCriM

implementation of the criteria

constraints method and stochastic LP

ParSAM

implementation of reasonable goals

methods, GRS-methodNESI

module for specification of nuclear

energy systems description

For realization of MODM techniques for energy planning software MESSAGE the following

methods have been implemented as modules (draft version): methods of effective solutionsselection through single criterion optimization (linear direct weighting of criteria and criteria

constraints methods); goal programming method; reasonable goals method (interactive

method of multi-criteria decision-making support).


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MULTI-OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPING

GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEMFollowing options of global nuclear power with closed NFC were considered:

(1) U-Pu closed NFC with LWR, HWR and their advanced prototypes, FR breeder and burner

(2) U-Pu-Th closed NFC with fast breeders with Th blankets and Pu cores


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STRUCTURES OF DEVELOPING NUCLEAR POWER

The study results have proven that it is difficult, or even impossible with limited set of reactortechnologies, to meet the set of constraints that reflect the system requirements for a nuclear power

system. In respect to this type of system constraints, the nuclear power system structure becomes

extremely sensitive to the reactor technology types and loses its ability to adapt to changing external

conditions, while meeting the set of conflicting system constraints. In such a system, each technology

plays an important role. If one of them is lost, there will be no optimal solution for a given set of

constraints. In this study a compromise could be found in transition to U-Pu-Th NFC.

The step-by-step setting of restrictions (total

amount of natural uranium, SNF, the locations

of FR) have defined the following optimal

nuclear power structures:

once-through uranium NFC with no

restrictions on uranium resources (I);

closed U-Pu NFC with and without

restrictions on the locations of FR and the

limitations on the amount of available natural

uranium (II, III);

closed U-Pu-Th NFC with restrictions on the

location of FR and the amount of available

natural uranium (IV).


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Indicators characterizing the proliferation potential of scenarios:

Potential productivity of fissile materials, SQ/year

Total amount of fissile materials in NFC - Amounts of direct- and indirect-use nuclear materials, SQ

Different structures of developing nuclear power systems are comparable by indicators "total amount of

fissile materials in NFC" and "potential productivity of fissionable materials".

The improvement of one indicator is achieved by worsening another. It is impossible to make definitive

judgments about the prospect of a nuclear power structure and the NFC type from the non-proliferation

viewpoint based on material flow assessment, without a detailed analysis of the proliferation scenarios

and specification of acting national and international systems of nonproliferation regime management.

NUCLEAR POWER STRUCTURE COMPARISON ON

PROLIFERATION RISK INDICATORS

Scenarios Total amount of fissilematerials in NFC, 106SQ

Potential productivity offissionable materials, 106SQ/yr

I 4.1 6.2 33 362

II 2.2 4.3 455 664

III 3.0 5.1 302 370IV 1.9 4.0 420 480

MULTI OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN


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MULTI-OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN

NUCLEAR POWER WITH DIFFERENT FRUsing the reasonable goals method, the studies on Russian nuclear power with FR with

different breeding parameters were carried out to establish a compromise development

strategy on a set of conflicting criteria and to identify cost-effective measures for reductionuranium consumption, risks of proliferation and SNF management.


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3,00x109

3,25x109

3,50x109

3,75x109

4,00x109

4,25x109

4,50x109

4,75x109

5,00x109

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

cost, 1000$

uranium consumption, kt

COST-EFFECTIVE REDUCTION OF NATURAL

URANIUM CONSUMPTION

Cost-effective reduction of natural uranium consumption and related technological options may be obtained

by means of calculation of trade-off strategies on criteria minimizations of the total discounted costs and the

natural uranium consumption. Trade-off curve identifies additional cost related to reduction of naturaluranium consum tion.


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COST-EFFECTIVE PLUTONIUM MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIES

0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.60.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

Pu multirecycling and forming of balance ofPu production and consumption

Preventing the accumulation of separated Pu

Consumption of differentaccumulated Pu forms

Increasing nuclear proliferation risk importanceThe

relativein

crease

int

otalcosts

The relative increase of scale of nuclear proliferation risks

Relative attractiveness of

plutonium on different NFC stages

Cost-effective strategy for plutonium management and related technological options may be obtained by

means of trade-off strategies calculation on criteria minimizations of the total discounted costs and the

plutonium risk exposure. Trade-off curve identifies additional cost related to implementation of measures forreduction proliferation risks associated with plutonium.

COST EFFECTIVE COMPLEX SOLUTIONS


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COST-EFFECTIVE COMPLEX SOLUTIONS

Obtained by means of MODM methods the trade-off nuclear power structures specify balanced solutions on

set of conflicting criteria and satisfy the cost-effective condition. These structures are always diversified by

different reactor types. Technological diversity provides effective risk management.

Trade-off surface (in n-dimensional space, n number of criteria) of non-dominated solution allows

identifying additional cost related to implementation of complex measures to reduce uranium consumption,proliferation risks and SNF accumulation.

Value path

1

3 4

2

1

2 3

4

Interactive

decision

map

APPLICATION OF MCDA TECHNIQUES


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APPLICATION OF MCDA TECHNIQUESApplication of the MCDA methods (MAVT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE, MAUT, etc) for multi-criteria

assessment of the efficiency of the various nuclear power structures shows that, despite some differences

in the ranking alternatives, the results obtained by using different methods, are well coordinated. The multi-

criteria approach allows providing more detailed differentiation of the alternatives, specifying benefits and

risks associated with alternatives and identifying trade-off solutions.

As recommendations on the use of MCDA method to multi-criteria assessment of the effectiveness of the various

nuclear power structures can be specified following points. Preselection of non-dominated alternatives leads to greater sustainability of alternatives ranking (in comparison

with the consideration of the whole set of alternatives): ranking order, within a set of non-dominated alternatives,

slightly changing the transition to the different methods of assessment.

Despite the fact that on the results of ranking alternatives affect the expert preferences of certain criteria, the

stability regions exist in which a wide range of variation of the preferences, the ranking order is preserved.

Taking into account the results of the sensitivity analysis and the additional analysis of alternatives by using expertjudgment and total set of graphical and attribute information the best alternative may be chosen.

Structure MAVT MAUT TOPSIS PROMETHEE

1 5 5 2 5

2 1 1 1 2

3 6 6 3 6

4 4 4 6 4

5 7 7 7 7

6 3 3 4 3

7 2 2 5 1

Rank of nuclear power structures

INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF NPP


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INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF NPP

CONSTRUCTION BASED ON SMSR MODULESMODM techniques may be used for assessment of

investment attractiveness of NPP construction

based on small and medium sized reactors and forformulation of recommendations on the ways to

increase it.

NPV - net present value

PV - present value

DPP - discounted payback periodIRR - internal rate of return


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APPLICATION OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSISMETHODS FOR FAST REACTORS AND RELATED

FUEL CYCLES EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT STUDIES


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UNCERTAINTY IN COST ESTIMATIONSOne major shortcoming of conventional approach for cost assessments is the requirement to use point

estimates for the technology characteristics and other important parameters.

Considering the significant uncertainty specific to the problem field investigated, uncertainty analysis is

an inevitable step expected to provide better grounds for judgments. Uncertainties may not be ignoredin the assessment process and their examination should enable the decision maker to reach a

conclusion regarding the stability of results.

METHODS OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS


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METHODS OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

The analytical approach

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test

The Extreme Condition Approach for Uncertainty Propagation

The Statistical Approach for Uncertainty Propagation

Regression Analysis

The SUAM and CSSUAM methods

Uncertainty Calculation System & Method (UCSM)

Law of propagation of error

Fuzzy sets

Interval analysis

The greatest application in assessing efficiency was found by the following uncertainty analysis

methods:

Scenario-based analysis (analysis of developments according to various credible scenarios

following the logic ofwhat-if);

Parametric analysis (with initial data variations over wide ranges of values);

Marginal sensitivity analysis (analysis of the effect made by insignificant changes in the initial

data of a model on the solution.

The uncertainty consideration methods that have been finding increasing application include interval

algebra, fuzzy sets, probabilistic methods, and the Monte Carlo technique.

GRS-method to quantify uncertainties

Response Surface Method (RSM)

Simple random sampling (SRS)

Latin hypercube sampling

Sample size justification

First-order second-moment analysis

Probabilistic uncertainty of input parameters

Analytical-statistical simulation approach (ASSA)

Bayesian Model

etc.

UNCERTAINTY IN LEVELIZED COST


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The structure of nuclear powerLevelized cost,

cents (kWh)

Uranium resources are not limited, two-

component structure of nuclear power1.66 0.185

Uranium resources are limited (1.2 milliontons), two-component structure of nuclear

power

1.76 0.143

UNCERTAINTY IN LEVELIZED COST

12

Nuclear power structures for mean cost values

The quantitative analysis performed shows that the considered scenarios are statistically

indistinguishable (90% confidence intervals of uncertainty of the levelized cost for various scenarios

overlap). This suggests that it is impossible to make definitive judgments about the prospects of one or

other structure on economic indicators, taking into account the existing uncertainties in the unit cost data.

density distribution

20 unit costs were perturb

independently (all NFC andinvestments cost)

Uniform probability distribution

was chosen

100 scenarios were generated

according to Wilks formula

RISK OF UNDERESTIMATING FUTURE


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RISK OF UNDERESTIMATING FUTURE

TECHNOLOGY COSTS - STOCHASTIC APPROACH

Implementation of stochastic approach foroptimization of nuclear power leads to

Diversification of nuclear power structure

Shift to more advanced nuclear technology

(from BN-K-1 and 2 towards BN-K-3)

This result looks more reasonable from expert

viewpoint

The stochastic approach captures the risk

of underestimating future technology costs.

The strategies derived with the stochastic approach

possess the required technological diversity withoutexogenous flexibility constraints. They also have a

more robust structure with respect to present

uncertainties concerning future parameters. The

strategies derived with the stochastic model

extension are less costly than strategies obtained on

the basis of a purely deterministic model.


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Thank youfor attention


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PROPOSALSBased on the understanding that the main activities in the field of fast reactors and related fuel

cycle facilities with improved economic characteristics should be focused on (i) gathering the

best practices on enhancement of economic characteristics (the main issues, technicalfeatures and solutions on different levels, reactor concepts and designs), (ii) formulation of

recommendations on capital and energy production costs reduction, improving the economic

competitiveness and investment attractiveness, (iii) arrangement of conditions for providing

systematic implementation of outcomes in regular R&D practices, following specific proposals

may be put forward: To organize platform for communication and systematic joint activities between technology

developers and experts in efficiency assessment techniques for providing finding of quantitative

proven technical and technological solutions on economic characteristics enhancement.

To review and revise approaches and tools for the cost assessment of fast reactors and

associated nuclear fuel cycles and forming on their base the structured and practical orientedtoolbox with detailed recommendation on its applications for R&D involved parties.

To stimulate development of necessary educational and training resources on issue

(curriculums, textbooks, lecture courses, etc.) for providing effective knowledge transfer to the

next generation technology developers (students of nuclear specialties, researchers, etc.).

INPE ACTIVITIES IN ADVANCED TOOLSDEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION FOR THEINNOVATIVE FAST REACTORS AND...

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