Brad Hawkes, René Alfaro, and Jodi AxelsonPacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada

Influence of Mountain Pine Beetle and Fire Disturbances on Stand Dynamics of Alberta’s Lodgepole Pine Forests

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Contents

Waterton Lakes National Park long-term plots FRI MPB program funded stand dynamics study of FoothillsSummary of dendro evidence of past MPB outbreaks in AB Rockies Growth and Yield impacts after MPBRecce of WLNP and Southern Rockies

PSP’s

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Ecology of lodgepole pine: a fire regenerated species – my fire ecology research until ….

Past 9 Years – Mountain Pine Beetle and Fire Disturbance influences on forest ecosystems of

lodgepole pine

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Stand development after beetleMPB is a natural thinning agentPromotes increased growth among the surviving treesAllows for the establishment of seedlings in understory

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Establishing disturbance baselines:past distribution and return interval

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Chilcotin Plateau

1987 2001 2008

Kootenay NP

1993 2003

Waterton Lakes NP

1983 2003 2009?

Repeated Sampling to Determine Stand Dynamics after MPB

MPB in Waterton Lakes National Park20 Years After Mountain Pine Beetle 1983-2003

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1983 2003

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?ROAD SIDE

Importance of seedbed to lodgepole pine regeneration

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Understory stand structure in Waterton Lakes National Park

No lodgepole pine found in 25 plots

Mostly Serotinous and Closed Cones

No lodgepole pine found in 25 plots

seedlings

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Lodgepole pine

Douglas-firSpruce Subalpine fir

AspenPoplar

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Prognosis G&Y model runs with Fire and Fuel Extension

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Snag Density

stem

/ha

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Live Tree Density

1000

ste

m/h

a

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Stand dynamics cycle

Waterton

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Location of sampled PSPs in the Lower Foothills and the Upper Foothills

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Stand History – Lower Foothills

Biotic scars(Root collar weevil?)

Birth of the overstory

Canopy disturbances

Birth and death of CWD

Regeneration

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Stand dynamics cycle

N. Alberta

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Examining spatial variability of lodgepole pine across the eastern Foothills

Used chronologies developed in Lower and Upper Foothills in 2008 (15)Used chronologies developed from 2002-2005 in southern Alberta with historical MPB outbreaks (11)Computed Factor Analysis (FA) to see dominant modes of variability and patterns of tree-growth in 26 lodgepole pine chronologies

FC1

FC2FC4

FC3

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Large growth release in early 1920scharacteristic of MPB releases in BC

Large growth reduction from mid-1940sto mid-1970s – strong correlation to the PDO

Growth releases in the 1940s and 1980sattributable to MPB outbreak in Watertonand Crowsnest area

Growth pattern declining over entirerecord – senescence? competition?

21FC2 and March Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO). The PDO is a major mode of variability in the north Pacific which affects climate across North America, particularly in western Canada.

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Stan

dard

ized

Inde

x

March PDO FC2

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Beetle history ofin BC and Alberta

1630 1640 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1630 1640 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Sta

nd

MAN1MAN4MAN5WAT

MAN3MAN2OK14CASTMOY

OK15OK16

BLR10ST2BPARS

BLR11ST2CANG1ANG2

KATHCBAN08BLR09

K302KET2

KATHAKATHB

KET3KET1WHIT

CAN12CAN13

LAL3LAL2LAL1

CORRTUNKSAVOHALL

KOOTREV02CRAN

REV01BAN05CC163CC359CC103

GOLD03GOLD04

CC101CC102CC105CC106CC104CC120CC122CC121CC128CC125SASKXCC129CC130CC119CC116CC118CC107CC117CC124CC126

BULLCC108CC109CC115CC114CC110CC111CC113CC123CC112

JASPJWGDOIG

TWD2TWD3TWD9TWD6TWD7TWD8TWD5TWD4

PG

MAN1MAN4MAN5WATMAN3MAN2OK14CASTMOYOK15OK16BLR10ST2BPARSBLR11ST2CANG1ANG2KATHCBAN08BLR09K302KET2KATHAKATHBKET3KET1WHITCAN12CAN13LAL3LAL2LAL1CORRTUNKSAVOHALLKOOTREV02CRANREV01BAN05CC163CC359CC103GOLD03GOLD04CC101CC102CC105CC106CC104CC120CC122CC121CC128CC125SASKXCC129CC130CC119CC116CC118CC107CC117CC124CC126BULLCC108CC109CC115CC114CC110CC111CC113CC123CC112JASPJWGDOIGTWD2TWD3TWD9TWD6TWD7TWD8TWD5TWD4PG

1890’s 1930’s 1970’s

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Stand dynamics cycle

N. Alberta

Waterton

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Future of forests: modeling using TASS

In-depth stand reconstructions (timing of disturbances, overstory and understory initiation) and current stand information (tree density, DBH, height) inform growth and yield models.We collaborate with BC Ministry of Forests and Range, and Ian Cameron to compute growth and yield of MPB stands using the Tree Age and Stand Simulator (TASS)Simulate stands with MPB disturbances and forecast future growth and yield

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Initial conditions 2008

3 cohorts

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2033

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2041 (immediately prior to light outbreak)

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2041 Light outbreak removes 30 % BA

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2058 New cohort is born

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2074 (immediately prior to outbreak)

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2074 Massive outbreak kills 70% BA

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2083

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2108 New cohort is born

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2009 Recce of Waterton Lakes NP and PSPsExamine potential of doing more detailed stand dynamics research on Waterton plots and PSPsimpacted by 80s outbreak. Eg determine when saplings were established in plots.Qualify sapling and canopy tree release and growth after 80s outbreak thinned stands.Predict future growth and yield with scenarios of potential future impacts of MPB.

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