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Revista de Administração FACES Journal

ISSN: 1517-8900

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Universidade FUMEC

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Vieira de Oliveira, Oderlene; Arruda Cavalcante Forte, Sérgio Henrique

BANKING INDUSTRY: CONSTRUCTING PROSPECTIVE SCENES AND IDENTIFYING

STRATEGIES

Revista de Administração FACES Journal, vol. 7, núm. 3, julio-septiembre, 2008, pp. 29-47

Universidade FUMEC

Minas Gerais, Brasil

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FACES R. Adm. · Belo Horizonte · v. 7 · n. 3 · p. 29-47 · jul./set. 200828

BANKING INDUSTRY: CONSTRUCTING PROSPECTIVE SCENES AND IDENTIFYING STRATEGIES

ESTRATÉGIA

FACES R. Adm. · Belo Horizonte · v. 7 · n. 3 · p. 29-47 · jul./set. 2008 29

ODERLENE VIEIRA DE OLIVEIRA . SÉRGIO HENRIQUE ARRUDA CAVALCANTE FORTE

ESTRATÉGIA

BANKING INDUSTRY: CONSTRUCTING PROSPECTIVESCENES AND IDENTIFYING STRATEGIES

INDÚSTRIA BANCÁRIA: CONSTRUINDO CENÁRIOS PROSPECTIVOS DEIDENTIFICAÇÃO E ESTRATÉGIAS.

Oderlene Vieira de OliveiraUniversidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR)

Sérgio Henrique Arruda Cavalcante ForteUniversidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR)

RESUMO

O objetivo da pesquisa é identificar quais as estratégias são mais comumente utilizadaspelos bancos em cenários prospectivos no período de 2008 a 2012 na indústria bancáriabrasileira. Para a formação dos cenários, além da literatura, obteve-se contribuição de 20especialistas. Participaram da pesquisa de campo 154 bancos múltiplos e comerciais noBrasil, com aplicação da técnica de análise de cluster. Como resultado, de doze estratégiasconsideradas, oito têm se apresentado como mais utilizadas em cada um dos cenários,sendo sete idênticas utilizadas nos dois cenários apresentados. As estratégias mudanças nacaptação de recursos, priorização na captação de recursos de longo prazo, a emissão depapéis em mercados externos, e aumento da captação em mercados externos foram apon-tados em um cenário A, enquanto as estratégias de fusão e aquisição foram consideradasem um cenário B.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE

Indústria Bancária Brasileira. Estratégias. Cenários Prospectivos. Análise de Agrupamento.MICMAC.

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to identify to which the strategies of most likely use for thebanks of the prospective scenes elaborated for the period from 2008 to 2012. Questionnaireswith 20 specialists of the banking industry and with 154 directors of multiple and commercialbanks had been applied. It was used technique of Clusters Analysis. The results had disclosedthat, of twelve considered strategies, eight of them had shown of most likely use in face toeach one of the elaborated prospective scenes, being that seven of them had been pointed



in the two scenes. The strategy “changes in the capitation of resources, prioritizing thecapitation of long stated period, the emission of papers in the external market and theincrease of capitation in international markets” was only pointed out in the scene A, whilethe strategy “merger and acquisitions processes (F&A)”was only pointed in scene B.

KEYWORDS

Brazilian Banking Industry. Strategies. Prospective Scenes. Clusters Analysis. MICMAC.

INTRODUCTION

The main changes that happened since theturn of 20th Century have marked the currentsocial and economic contexts and of the futuredecades, it is not simple task to follow thetransforming processes caused by the advancesof science, and the politics of liberalization of theeconomy and technological revolution, becomingmore difficult to define strategies that guaranteethe survival of the organizations in the competitiveenvironment. According to Martial and Coast(2001), this occurs because the variable thatcharacterizes this new competitive environmentleads to a huge uncertainty. If the focus will be thebanking industry, this uncertainty is even bigger,what it leads to inquire, as Schwartz anticipates(2006, p. 11): “how to see more clearly theenvironment in which its action is going to happen?Or, as Nocera places (1998, p. 1): “which will bethe future configuration and, even though, the needof existing banking institutions, in order of the greatdevelopment of the information andcommunication technologies?

The banking industry has involved in a processof deep transformation disappearing the traditionalboarding at banking firm that translated into wordsits problem of decision about deposits, loans andreserves, if there were a time when it was reallysuitable (CARVALHO; PAULA; OREIRO, 2007a).

In face of this scene, it becomes indispensablethat the financial institutions think and plan its future- not only for its own security, but also for all thesociety’s - searching the conditions that take themto the progress in a supported way. The capacityof turning itself to the future and to direct is part ofthe planning in the organizations, and, as someauthors point out (PORTER, 1989; GODET, 2000;MARCIAL; GRUMBACH, 2002; SCHWARTZ, 2006),the use of prospective scenes is the most suitabletool to define strategies in turbulent and uncertainenvironments.

Although the difficulty in finding academicworks that approach both subjects “scenes” and“strategies” together, as in this research, it had beenidentified, in Brazil, some empirical studies withfocus in scenes: Kato (2005), Moritz (2004), andSantos (2004). Exception for the studies of Marcialand Costa (2001) and Silva (2005), whichapproach scenes in banks, the others had dealtwith scenes in other sectors. In fact: Marcial andCosta (2001) had objectified to identify anelaboration method for prospective scenesadjusted to Banco do Brasil needs, analyzing itsenvironment and identifying the step ofmethodological understanding of its directors; andSilva (2005) tried to apply the scenes theory atthe bank Nossa Caixa, considering possibleconjectures and applications, using the IntuitiveLogic model.

FACES R. Adm. · Belo Horizonte · v. 7 · n. 3 · p. 29-47 · jul./set. 2008 3 1


In face of these facts, appears a gap in whichthis research is inserted. The differential of this studyin comparison with, of Marcial and Costa (2001)and Silva (2005) is that beyond constructing thescenes with the aid of connoisseurs or specialistsfrom the national banking industry, this researchidentifies the strategies of most likely use at theelaborated prospective scenes. Thus the researchproblem was defined: which are the strategies mostlikely used for the banks facing the prospectivescenes elaborated for the period from 2008 to2012?

Searching a reply for the research question itwas defined as general objective to identify thestrategies most likely used for the banks, in theprospective scenes for the Brazilian banking industry.

Thus, the interest for the subject come up fromthe several technical studies in Brazil on scenes -as, for example, of the Macroplan and theBrainstorming Consultoria - and from the absenceof academic studies that relate the banks segmentstrategies with the elaborated prospective scenesfor the banking industry in Brazil.

The choice of the banking industry is becauseof the fact that banks still represent the unstablecore of the economy and because of importantchanges in recent years, result of a set ofmacroeconomic and regulatory factors, as, forexample, the process of after-Real prices stability,banking reorganization programs, the Agreementsof Basel (I and II) adhesion, foreign banks cominginto the country, increase in the bankingconcentration (merger and acquisitions) and hightechnological sophistication (home-banking).

The study methodology includedbibliographical survey of literature on ProspectiveScenes, Strategy, and National Financial System.After that, it was made a deeper study of the currentscene of the banks in Brazil. Questionnaires hadbeen applied as the method of prospective analysispropose (GODET, 2000) adopted for theelaboration of the scenes. At another moment,

scenes had been elaborated and later verified itsrelation with the strategies of the national bankingindustry. The data had been analyzed by meansof frequency distribution and clusters analysis.

PROSPECTIVE SCENES

Boroush and Thomas (2002) say that thescenes make possible to the companies to knowits threats, to take off advantage of chances and totake sharp decisions of long stated period morecapable to create competitive advantage. Quinnand Mason (1994) complement informing thatthe prospective scenes can be equally useful inenvironments that never had a planning systembefore or in environments that the system alreadyexists for a long time.

There are some consensus concerning thedefinitions of scenes, although the nuances anddifferences of interpretation, to which many authorshad cooperated as obligatory reference in theresearch among them, Gaston Berger, Pierre Wack,Michael Godet, Michael Porter and Peter Schwartz.The most wide-ranging is Godet (2000), thatdefines prospective scene as a “set formed by thedescription of a future situation and the guiding ofthe events that allow to pass from the originsituation to a future situation”. The authorcomplements its definition adding that a scene isnot the future reality, but a way to represent it,with the objective to guide the present action, tothe light of the possible and desirable futures.

Models and methods of construction of scenes

The models are nothing else but asimplification of the reality. Without them, however,it would not be possible to check the congruenceof the speech about possible scenes. The methodof prospective analysis of Godetiana origin ispresented for this research basis.

The model of construction of scenes throughthe prospective analysis consists of three phases:1) to construct the base; 2) to sweep the field of



the possible futures and to reduce the uncertainty;e 3) to elaborate the scenes (GODET, 2000)

Phase 1 - To construct to the base - the basisconstructions happens in three stages: 1)delimitation of the system and its involving 2)determination of the variable-key; e 3) analysis ofthe actors strategies.

Still in accordance with Godet (2000, p. 30),in the accomplishment of the first phase, theStructural Analysis, with Method MICMAC, becomeprecious instruments. About the resultant variableof the structural analysis, it is convenient to makea deeper numerical retrospective study and alsoand very well detailed. The retrospective analysiswill prevent that the current situation becomeexcessively privileged, once there is always thetrend of if surpassing for the future.

Phase 2 - To sweep the possible futures fieldand to reduce the uncertainty – After the variable-keys are identified, the possible futures can bedemarcated through a list of hypotheses thattranslate, for example, the continuity of a trend or,in contrast, its rupture.

Phase 3 - To elaborate the scenes - In thisphase, the scenes still are found in the primitivestate, because they are limited to the hypothesesgames, carried through or not. So this phase isabout describing process that leads from thecurrent situation to the restrained final images (thispart is assigned by diachronic phase).

The choice of scenes method depends on thepeculiar characteristics of each company, that is,the strategic decisions, the business environment,the organizational culture, the available time, theinvestment and the desired results. It is worth topoint out that the models are rarely completelyused and that frequently they are combined, as isthe case of the Prospective Analysis.

STRATEGY

At the beginning of the 60’s, time where themanagement thought it was been guided for

individual functions, Andrews and Christensen hadidentified the urgent need of a holistic form ofthinking the company, and had articulated thestrategy concept as a way of getting at this. Thoseauthors realized the strategy as a unifying idea thatbound the functional areas of the company andrelated its activities with the external environment(MONTGOMERY; PORTER, 1998). The theory ofAndrews and Christensen, along with the theoriesof studious as Ansoff, Mintzberg, Henderson,Chandler and Porter, based the strategy and workedas a solid foundation for academic research.

Amongst the many typologies on strategy, itwas chosen to deal only with the typology Forte(2007), that it was selected because it exemplifiesthe kinds of strategy that have most relationshipwith the collecting data instrument of this research.

Based on the typology strategic positions maps,Forte, apud Costa e Almeida (2007) extended anddetailed the strategies in each position. The mapswere based on the matrix SWOT (Strong and Weakpoints, Opportunities and Threats) of Andrews(1971).

The Strategic Map I (Chart 1) - Survival - it ismost typical when the company has weak point (-) and has to deal with environment threats (A). Itpresents the strategies in a gradual form, whichmeans, from the less radical (reduction of costs)to the most radical (bankruptcy). The survival isthe worse strategic situation (FORTE, apud COSTA;ALMEIDA, 2007).

FACES R. Adm. · Belo Horizonte · v. 7 · n. 3 · p. 29-47 · jul./set. 2008 3 3


Source: FORTE, apud COSTA; ALMEIDA, 2007, p. 115.

Chart 1

Strategic Map I – Survival (-, A).



Strategical map II (Chart 2)

Maintenance - in this situation, the company has strong points (+), but it is threatened (A).

Chart 2 – Strategic Map II – Maintenance (+, A).Source: FORTE, apud COSTA; ALMEIDA, 2007, p. 116.

Strategical map III (Chart 3)

Growth - in this situation, the company has weak points (-), but the environment isoffering opportunities (O).

Chart 3 – Strategic Map III – Growth (-, O).Source: FORTE, apud COSTA; ALMEIDA, 2007, p. 116.



Strategical map IV (Chart 4)

Development - in this situation, the company has strong points (+) in its internalcapacities and the environment is favorable with opportunities (O). This is the best

strategic situation.

Chart 4 – Strategic Map IV – Development (+, O).Source: FORTE, apud COSTA; ALMEIDA, 2007, p. 117.



Forte apud Costa e Almeida (2007) points outthat the companies can use combined strategies(mixing) and that its strategic planning andmanagement must take in account a sequence,that is, it can plan an action of survival at the currentmoment and immediately afterwards think aboutmaintenance, and then in the future at mediumand long term think about growth.

Montgomery and Porter (1998) explain thatnowadays, more than ever, the definition of wellbased strategies stopped being a luxury, to startbecoming a need. To face an environment eachtime more competitive, the companies need todifferentiate themselves from their competitors andto gain a competitive sustainable advantage.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES

The adopted types of research had been:bibliographical research, descriptive research andexploratory research (CERVO; BERVIAN; DA SILVA,2007). About its amplitude, the research configuresas a field study (LAKATOS; MARCONI, 2005) inthe banking industry, of which the population-targetwas selected, enclosing the multiple andcommercial banks listed in Bacen’s website,performing a census on this contingent.

The financial specialists of the Brazilian bankingindustry and institutions (banks) represent thepopulation-target of this research. Due to the factthat the data collection was performed in threestages, and also because of the particularity of eachpopulation-target in each stage, it was decided todetailing this process with the description of thethree stages.

The collection of primary data was undertakenin three stages that is, it had been at the field threetimes. The instrument which was used, at thosethree moments, was a structuralized questionnaire.The collection effort was undertaken on the periodfrom June of 2007 to May of 2008.

First stageFirst stageFirst stageFirst stageFirst stage - In this first stage, the goal is toverify the variables that characterize the banking

segment, with the aid of specialists or connoisseursof the banking industry. It is the initial procedurefor elaboration of the prospective scenes.

For the elaboration of the instrument of datacollection it was proceed a survey in publishedfinancial report from Central Banking’s website,from SFN and from Banco do Brasil, with objectiveof elaborating a census of the variables thatcharacterize the current banking conjuncture,contemplating the intern and extern environmentsat the industry. In this stage, according to Godet(2000, p. 65), “it is appropriate to be mostexhausting as possible and to do not exclude,previously, none research way.”

The initial collect of the variables scored a totalof 85 of them, that it resulted in a firstquestionnaire. In this questionnaire, it was intendedto verify the 85 variables listed by the indication ofthe variable’s influence degree in possible scenesin a five years perspective (from 2008 to 2012).The influence degree was composed of a Likertscale of four points, going from none influence tostrong influence (MALHOTRA, 2006).

The population-target was included specialistsor connoisseurs of the banking industry. Two criteriafor this selection had been defined: 1) to be anexecutive of high hierarchic level (managing orsuperintendent) of banking institution; 2) to becarrying good knowledge on the competitiveenvironment and critical problems of the bankingindustry. One exception was made on this criterionof selection to the expert that was selected by itsexperience in the elaboration of prospective scenesfor the banking industry, being co-author of somebooks and some academic research. According toGodet (2000, p. 71), the number of connoisseurswho select the variables-key in studies of scenesis frequently placed between ten and twenty ofthem. Attempting to this information, it wasselected twenty connoisseurs who fulfilled the pre-requisites, to whom had been directed the firstquestionnaire. It was committed, in the research,to do not give any information that they could



identify the respondents. Thus, the questionnairewas sent to twenty specialists of the bankingindustry, getting thirteen of them in return.

To the data analysis were used the statisticstechniques of measuring positions and indicateddispersion for at intervals variables (MATTAR,2001), beyond the normal distribution(STEVENSON, 1981). It was the supported bysoftware SPSS and of Excel.

Second stageSecond stageSecond stageSecond stageSecond stage – The goal is to identify thevariables-key, by means of a matrix of double entry,with the aid of the specialists or participantconnoisseurs of the banking industry of the firststage. It is a secondary procedure in the elaborationof the prospective scenes.

During the elaboration of the data collectioninstrument, had been considered 38 variablesselected from the previous stage. The instrumentof this second stage has the objective to verify therelation between those 38 selected variables,making possible the identification of the variable-key by a matrix of double entry or a Matrix ofCrossed Impacts and Multiplications Applied to aClassification (MICMAC). The fulfilling is qualitative,and, for each pair of variables, the connoisseurmust place the following questions: 1) Is thereany direct relation between the variable 1 andvariable 2? If “No, there is not”, it would have toattribute note “0”; if “Yes, there is”, it would makethe second question: 2) Is the existing relation weak(1), moderate (2), strong (3) or potential (4)?

The population-target of the second stagecomprehends the thirteen specialists or respondentconnoisseurs of the first questionnaire. Due thefact that the selected specialists are located in theheadquarters of the financial institutions anddispersed for some capitals over the country, andthat the questionnaire of this second stage consistsof the consensus that the group of specialists mustbe congregated in one same environment andhave a common language, and beyond that thefulfilling demanded between three and four hours,if was possible to count on only three participants.Thus the questionnaire was applied to threeparticipants.

At the data analysis, it was adopted theMICMAC model, that consists of inserting in thematrix of double entry the scores given by thespecialists according to variables influence levelsand to identify the variable-key. It was supportedby the software MICMAC, from Lipsor.

Third stage:Third stage:Third stage:Third stage:Third stage: - In this third stage, the objectiveis to identify the strategies most likely used by thebanks in the prospective scenes, in a five yearperspective (from 2008 to 2012), with thecontribution of directors of 154 banks (multipleand commercial).

The research instrument’s objective is to verifythe relation between the strategies and theidentified resources and then validate them at thebeginning of the research, in accordance with thetwo projected scenes. Thus, it had been selected, fromthe group of 85 variables, 12 strategies (Chart 5).



Chart 5 - Strategies of the banking industry.Source: Data of the research, 2007.

The questions consist of relating strategies,designating “V” in the blank spaces of thecorresponding columns to the scenes, whoseanswers, from their point of view, could fit in onlyone or in both elaborated scenes. Also was createda column to the participants designate in the casethey find that some strategies are not related withnone of the scenes. And still it was created anempty space, so the participants could suggestsome strategy or resource.

The questionnaire was tested before itsdefinitive use, being applied twice with four of thethirteen participating connoisseurs of the first stage.The population-target comprehends theheadquarters of the banking institutions, having asparticipants its directors. The Central Bank registersa total of 176 banking institutions, being 134commercial banks, 20 commercial banks, 17 banksof investments, 4 banks of development and the

Caixa Econômica (CENTRAL BANK, 2007).Although it is listed five segments of banks, theBacen makes available the data records (completeaddress and composition of the direction) only ofthe multiple banks, the commercial ones and theCaixa Econômica bank. Taking into account thatone of the members from board of directors is aparticipant of this research, it was defined aspopulation-target the multiple and commercialsegments that have their data records availableBacen’s website, which scored a total of 154institutions. The Caixa Econômica bank wasexcluded from the research, because, being theinstitution the only one of its segment, it was notpossible to preserve the secrecy of its answers.

The data had been collected by applying anauto-managed questionnaire for the participants.This questionnaire is available in one webpage,whose it was accessed through a link inserted in



the email by which the letter-invitation was sent.Initially the collected data had been organized andwritten by procedures of the descriptive statisticswith the elaboration of frequencies distributions.The multivariate technique of the Analysis of Clusterit was also used (MALHOTRA, 2006). The purposeof the use of this technique consisted on identifyingthe strategies most probable used by the banks,in consideration of the elaborated prospectivescenes. The analysis of cluster used was thehierarchic in order to agglomerate the variables.The Ward was the chosen method for binaryvariables and the distance meter was the SquaredEuclidean.

CONSTRUCTIONS OF PROSPECTIVE SCENES

Variables censusVariables censusVariables censusVariables censusVariables census - Initially the data had beenapplied at the statistic calculation of measures ofposition and indicated dispersion for variables atintervals, with the aid of software SPSS, having theintention of if getting a better visualization of theorder of the variables. After the tables were done,it was decided to use the measures of the weighedmean and shunting line-standard, since this made

possible the application of the normal distribution,that is, the application of one technique thatvalidated the cut that would have to be made inthe number of variables.

At the data was applied the technique of thenormal distribution. As intention, in this phase ofthe research, it was to reduce to the possibleminimum the number of variables, all those thatwere below of 2,498807 were excluded, and thisnumber was gotten from the amount of theaverage of the averages with the addition of threeshunting line-standard. The process resulted in theselection of 38 variables.

Identifying the variables-keyIdentifying the variables-keyIdentifying the variables-keyIdentifying the variables-keyIdentifying the variables-key - the purpose isto identify the inter-relations between the 38variables selected by the specialists at the variablescensus. Thus, it was adopted in this phase theprocedures of the Structural Analysis, that itidentifies the existing relations between thevariables, using a double entry picture. After theserelations are defined, the following step is the useof software MICMAC from Lipsor, which generatedthe following map (Figure 1):

Source: Research data, 2008.

Figure 1

Influence map and indirect dependence of variables.



In the map (Figure 1) the variable-key, islocated in the right superior quadrant and they areunderstand as variables very motor (influential) andvery dependents (influenced), occupying a “joint”position - they propagate its influence to the set ofthe system. The map allowed the identification often variables-key: Stability of the national economy;Interest tax; Spreads banking; Monetary policy;Index of Basel; Demand for credit; Confidence ofthe customers; Increase of income of classroomsC and D; Technology and system of information(security, mainly online); e Degree of competition.

Identifying the eventsIdentifying the eventsIdentifying the eventsIdentifying the eventsIdentifying the events – After identifying thevariable-key, searched for news in all kind of media(video, audio, press and web), mainly in Bacen’sdocuments, like reports and acts, where it couldhave registers and projections on the behavior ofthe selected variables. Thus, it was created eventsfor each one of the variable-keys. This creation ofevents made possible to identify a realistic scenethat was named as Scene “A”. From the Scene“A”, Scene “B” was created, with a pessimisticvision, as in the following description:

Scene A (Realistic)Scene A (Realistic)Scene A (Realistic)Scene A (Realistic)Scene A (Realistic) - For next the five years(from 2008 to 2012) it is foreseen maintenanceof the Brazilian financial stability, having as one ofthe main effect small oscillations of the tax ofinterests and banking spreads. Perspective of fewchanges in the monetary politics, in relation to theobligatory deposits. The Basel index - which itmeasures the banks solvency - will continue steady.Along with the good perspectives of economicgrowth, it will also grow the credit demand,stimulated for the high index of the customer’sratability. The fast development of the technologyand information system will continue, graduallyincreasing the demand of the banking sector, whichsearches to optimize its processes, definition ofnew products, services, innovations in thecustomer’s attendant and much more onlinesecurity. The projections indicate maintenance ofthe competition level in the Brazilian bankingindustry.

Scene B (Pessimistic)Scene B (Pessimistic)Scene B (Pessimistic)Scene B (Pessimistic)Scene B (Pessimistic) - For next the five years(from 2008 to 2012), is foreseen financial nationalinstability, generating, as one of the main effect,increases of the tax of interests and bankingspreads. Perspective of great changes in themonetary politics, in relation to the obligatorydeposits. The Basel index - which measures thebanks solvency - will be below of the demandedminimum limit (11%). Along with the badperspectives of economic growth, also decreasethe demand for credit, stimulated for the low indexof the customer’s confidence and by the relativeinvolution in the income, mainly in classes C andD. Even having advances in the development ofthe technology and information system, it will beseen a process of direct financial. The projectionsindicate continuity in the competition level in theBrazilian banking industry.

ANALYSES AND RESULTS

Characterization of the participating institutions

The population of the research comprehends154 banks, being 134 multiples and 20commercial ones, listed at Bacen’s website (datesbase: March/2008). 79 banks, which correspondto 51.3% of them, had answered the research,being 64 multiples and 15 commercial ones. The79 participating banks present the followingclassification about its dimension: 15 are great, 48are average and 16 are of small dimension. Inregards to the distribution for capital origin, it wasverified that, of the 79 participating banks, 11 arepublics, which 5 of them are federal and 6 stateones; and 68 are private banks, which 36 arenational ones, 25 are national with foreign controland 7 of them are national with foreignparticipation.

With the purpose to point out, amongst thestrategies used in the research, those with biggerchance of use in face of the two scenes, it wasused clusters analysis.



Clusters Analysis of the strategies of theClusters Analysis of the strategies of theClusters Analysis of the strategies of theClusters Analysis of the strategies of theClusters Analysis of the strategies of theBrazilian banking industry, facing the prospectiveBrazilian banking industry, facing the prospectiveBrazilian banking industry, facing the prospectiveBrazilian banking industry, facing the prospectiveBrazilian banking industry, facing the prospectivescenes realistic and pessimisticscenes realistic and pessimisticscenes realistic and pessimisticscenes realistic and pessimisticscenes realistic and pessimistic.

First it was applied clusters analysis to the database of the frequencies of the answers referring

to the pertinent “strategies” to the “scene A”. Havingas basis the objective of applying the technique,identifying of the most probable strategies, andanalyzing the dendrogram of Figure 2, it wasdefined divide it in two clusters.

Source: Field research.

Figure 2

Dendrogram of the strategies before the realistic scene (a).


Table 1

Strategies with bigger probability of use front to the realistic scene (a)



In Cluster 1 (Table 1) had been identified thestrategies that had presented greater concentrationof answers in the realistic scene (A). It is notablethat of the twelve listed strategies, eight had beenindicated by the directors of the participating banksas very probable to be used front to the realisticscene. It is possible to observe that such strategieshad gotten frequencies of answers very closebetween themselves and above 81%. The strategycorporative governance presented the biggestprobability of use amongst the twelve strategies,with 98,7% of the participants attributing to it biggerimportance in face of the realistic scene. This resultcan send to the following questionings: would thisbe the Brazilian banking industry reality? Wouldthe directors of the banks be worried about theinvestors and the creditor banks in the inter-bankingmarket? Or they would be more worried inadjusting themselves to the levels of requirementsof Basel II? Such situations deserve to be studiedin bigger depth.

In the second position it is the strategy “focusin the micro segment and small companies” which94.9% of the participants had pointed theprobability of use of this strategy. This forgottenniche in credit market, the one of MPEs, has shownreally attractive (CARVALHO, apud PAULA; OREIRO,2007b). Traditionally kept at the edge offers ofcredits, these companies accept to pay incrediblysuperior taxes them those usually charged at thehuge companies (CARVALHO, 2000).

The strategies “Strategical Alliances” were inthird position with 88,6% of probable use in therealistic scene. This result, according to someauthors, as, for example, Alfonso Grandson (2003),as well as other authors had pointed in the F&Astrategy (THE HAWKINS; MIHALJEK, 2001; PAULA,2002; AL WOULD MAKE ET. IN: PAULA; OREIRO,2007), is caused by the attainment of scaleeconomy, which has as consequences thereduction of costs, the access to new technologies,the overcoming of legal barriers and, finally, theopening of a set of alternative distribution channels,that they will make possible to face the action ofthe competition in a more effective way.

The indication of the strategy “association withretail nets and operational agreements for financingto the consumption”, amongst eight more probableat use did not surprise, it has seen the greatfrequency of uprisings of some analysts of thebanking industry, as, for example, Rose (2008)and Tenani (2008), on the ample use of thesetypes of strategy in face of the current context ofcompetition of the banking industry.

As for the result of 86,1% of use of the strategy“integration of new ways of distribution that makepossible presence next to the until then unassistedpopulations” is observed that it has some timesince this strategy already comes being longed forthe banks (ARAÚJO, 2001), having if intensifiedin recent years. The Bacen (2007b, p. 108) tellsthat “currently the strategies adopted by thefinancial institutions (banks) are not limited to thepopulation of bigger income. The stratus of thepopulation of lesser income had also gainedrelevance to the dissemination of the credit.”Studies of the consulter A. T. Kearney (2008)project that up to 2017 the population which hasaccess to banks will reach 103 million people,representing 90% of the population in analysis(115 million - projections of the EconomicCommission for Latin America and the Caribbean).

The strategy “changes in the capitation ofresources, prioritizing the capitation of long statedperiod, the emission of papers in the externalmarket and increase of capitation in internationalmarkets”. it was pointed by 83, 5% as veryprobable of being used in the realistic scene , andin accordance with the report of the Bacen(2007a), according to which, in the current contextof the market, one of the strategies used for thebanks has been the prioritizing the capitationinstruments that generate free liquidity andresources, as the dead-lines deposits - standingout a concentration of about 85% of the depositsin the ten bigger banks. Another used strategy isthe increase of the capitations in internationalmarkets, in face of the differences between theinternal and external taxes.



Table 2

Strategies with lesser probability of use front to the realistic scene (a)



Cluster 2 (Table 2) grouped four strategies thathad received the lesser amounts from answersfront to the realistic scene. It stands out that,although these four strategies to compose Cluster2, titled “little probable”, these had receivedindications from use above of 60,8%.

According to the results of Tables 1 and 2, itcan be concluded that the twelve listed strategies

would have great utility at the realistic scene, beingthat the eight listed in Cluster 1 (Table 4) wouldbe most probable, of the point of view of thedirectors of the participating banks.

Figure 3 presents the dendrograma of thestrategies in face of the pessimistic scene (B). Itwas chosen to the divide the graph in two groups(Tables 3 and 4).

Figure 3

Dendrogram of the strategies before the pessimistic scene (b).




Table 3

Strategies with bigger probability to be used in the pessimistic scene (b)

The table 3 shows Cluster 1, which iscomposed by the eight strategies that had receivedthe biggest frequencies from answers, none ofthem smaller than 50,6%. The prominence inCluster 1 are the strategies “focus in the micronsegment and small companies” and “diversificationin the niche of market”, since both had gotten thebiggest frequencies of answers, with 75,9% foreach. In accordance with Dymski, apud Paula;Oreiro (2007), in situations of crises the bankstend to transform its strategies, and, in the courseof these changes, they look new niches of markets,

many directed to the low income families and smallbusinesses.

Oliveira et al. (2007) affirm that, by havinginterest in new niches of market, the organizationscan make a choice at strategies of merger andacquisitions, what, suddenly, it could justify theindication of this strategy to the picture of mostprobable in the pessimistic scene. Anyway, thisindication sends us to the following questioning:would be the directors of the banks signalingchange in the positions of the directors where anew group assumed the direction?



Table 4

Strategies with lesser probability of use front to the pessimistic scene (b)


In Cluster 2 (Table 4), there are the fourstrategies that had gotten the lesser frequenciesof answers. It is observed that none reached thesuperior frequency of 21.5%, indicating this that,of the point of view of the participants, thesestrategies hardly would be used in the situation ofthe pessimistic scene. This result did not surprise,signaling that, in facing a scene of bigger difficultiesfor the banking industry, as it is the case of thepessimistic scene, the directors of the participatingbanks will have to be more careful, by giving priorityto the use of strategies that can keep themcompetitive in the market.

According to Tables 3 and 4, it can beconcluded that, of the twelve listed strategies, eight(Table 3) would be most probable used beforethe pessimistic scene.

CONCLUSION

Trying to answer to the question posted ascentral problem, the research was considered toelaborate prospective scenes for the Brazilianbanking industry in a period of five years (from2008 to 2012) and to identify the strategies mostlikely used by the banks in facing to such scenes.

For the construction of the prospective scenes,it was used the model of Prospective Analysisdeveloped by Godet (1993), which consists ofidentifying the variable-key and, then, to demarcatethe possible futures, by a list of hypotheses orevents that translate, for example, the continuityor, in contrast, the rupture, of a trend. Theapplication of the model comprehends two stages.The first one (census of the variable) counted withthe participation of thirteen specialists orconnoisseurs of the Brazilian banking industry. Thesecond stage (identifying the variable-key) receivedthe contribution from three specialists and thetechnician-logistic support of software MIC-MAC.The results had pointed ten variable-key, namely:Stability of the national economy; Interest tax;Banking Spreads; Monetary policy; Index of Basel;Demand for credit; Confidence of the customers;Increase of income of class C and D; Technologyand information system (security, mainly online);e Degree of competition.

For each variable it was conjectured an eventwere, what resulted in a characterized prospectivescene as “Scene A” or “the Realistic Scene”. Afterthe creation of the realistic scene was concluded,



“Scene B” was created, also called “PessimisticScene”.

With the purpose of identifying the use of mostprobable strategies in face of the elaborated scenestwelve strategies had been selected (validated inthe first stage of the research for the specialists)and verified their behavior facing the scenes. Thisstage counted on the participation of 79 of the154 directors from the multiple and commercialbanks of the Brazilian banking industry. In thisidentification had been used normal distributionand clusters analysis techniques, with thetechnician-logistic support of software SPSS.

The results make possible the followingconclusions: Scene (A)Scene (A)Scene (A)Scene (A)Scene (A) - From the twelve listedstrategies, eight of the, had been considered mostprobable to be used. As follows, the eight strategiespointed for decreasing order of frequency ofanswers: Corporative Governance; Focus in thesegment of micron and small company; Strategicalliances; Operational association with retail nets,agreements for financing to the consumption;Integration of new canals of distribution that makepossible presence next to unassisted populationsuntil then; Diversification in the market niche;

Changes in the capitation of resources, prioritizingthe capitation of long stated period, the emissionof papers in the external market and the increaseof capitation in international markets; and Flotationof shares, with negotiations of actions in thenational and international stock market or emissionof new actions.

Scene (B)Scene (B)Scene (B)Scene (B)Scene (B) - Amongst the twelve listedstrategies, eight would be most probable, of thepoint of view of the directors of the participatingbanks. As follows, these eight strategies are listedin sequence decreasing of frequency of answers:Diversification in the market niche; Focus in thesegment of micron and small company; Flotationof shares, with negotiations of action in the nationaland international stock market or emission of newactions; Integration of new channels of distributionthat make possible presence next to unassistedpopulations until then; Corporative Governance;Operational association with retail nets, agreementsfor financing to the consumption; Strategicalliances; e Processes of merger and acquisitions(F& A). >

Recebido em: out. 2007 · Aprovado em: jan. 2008

Oderlene Vieira de Oliveira

Universidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR)Pesquisadora

Rua Ministro Eduardo Ellery Barreira, 29, apto 1101A,Guararapes, Fortaleza-CE, CEP 60810-010

(85) [email protected]

Sérgio Henrique Arruda Cavalcante Forte

Universidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR)Professor Titular

Rua Avenida Washington Soares, 1321, Bairro Edson Queiroz –Bloco Q, sala 3, Fortaleza-CE, CEP 60811-905

(85) [email protected]



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