INDUS RIVER - chinawaterrisk.org · INDUS RIVER Indus River originates from high mountain lakes on...
2
INDUS RIVER KEY COUNTRY EXPOSURE RIVER FLOW & RUNOFF MIX CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST & FUTURE TREND ICE RESERVES & GLACIER MELT Afghanistan Annual flow estimation Temperature Change (°C) (RCP4.5) Hydrological Changes (mm/year) (RCP4.5) China India Pakistan Note: the share of surface water resources refers to the ratio of surface water produced internally by the river in the respective country and the country’s total renewable surface water. Source: China Water Risk based on data from Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Rainfall, snowfall and runoff change are expressed in equivalent water height. All data are calculated from five ensemble model (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, CCSM4, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR) in IPCC AR5. Source: China Water Risk based on calculation by CAS-IGSNRR using MPI-HM, PCRGLOBWB and WaterGAP hydrological models Surface Water Resources Population GDP 24% 30% 40% GDP Population Surface Water Resources 0.002% 0.004% 0.4% GDP Population Surface Water Resources 4% 7% 8% 1956-2005 2006-2055 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 GDP Population Surface Water Resources 25% 88% 92% Runoff mix in the upper Indus Souce: China Water Risk based on Lutz et al (2014) Glacier melt 40% Base flow 11% Snow melt 22% Rainfall- runoff 27% Based on several sources, the contribution of glacier melt and snow melt to the runoffs in the Upper Indus could range from 62% to 71% DEFINITIONS (FAO AQUASTAT): − River flow/runoffs: the amount of river water that flows in a given time − Surface water produced internally: long-term average annual volume of surface water generated by direct runoff from endogenous precipitation (surface runoff) and groundwater contributions − Total renewable surface water: the sum of the internal renew- able surface water resources and the total external renewable surface water resources Glaciers in the Indus: Number: 18,495 Glacier area shrinkage: 146 -0.6 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1956-2005 2006-2055 1.14 1.81 -0.4 Snowfall Rainfall Runoff -0.22 -0.50 0.41 0.32 -0.25 0.08 68x Three Gorges Dams > Ice reserves: 2,696 km 3 79% 5,700 masl of Indus’s glacier areas are below masl = metres above sea level = 4,239-5,086 km 2 20-24% 2007-2050 (under RCP4.5) 197bn m 3 NO WATER, NO GROWTH Does Asia have enough water to develop? Glacier area: 21,193 km 2 53% size of Switzerland INDUS RIVER Indus River originates from high mountain lakes on the Third Pole and runs through China, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan before emptying into the Arabian Sea. 47% of the Indus River Basin faces ‘extremely high’ water stress. THE INDUS RIVER BASIN THE INDUS MATTERS FOR COUNTRIES, PEOPLE & THE ECONOMY Length Basin Area Annual flow Flow through Share of ice & snow melt in upper reach Average surface water resources Basin population Basin GDP in 2015 Transboundary 2,880 km 1.08-1.26 million km 2 146-197 billion m 3 Afghanistan, China, India, Pakistan 62-79% of runoff 155 billion m 3 276 million US$380 billion (constant 2010 price) Yes India and Pakistan signed the ‘Indus Waters Treaty’ in 1960. Total surface water resources = 155 billion m 3 Total population = 276 million Total 2015 GDP (constant 2010 price) = US$380 billion Pakistan 39% Pakistan 61% India 46% India 34% Pakistan 52% India 46% China 7% China 0.02% Afghanistan 9% Afghanistan 5% China 0.06% Afghanistan 2% GDP mix Industry 38% Agriculture 23% Services 39% Water Use Per Unit GDP (m 3 /USD) Irrawaddy Amu Danya Brahmaputra Mekong Salween Ganges Tarim Indus Yangtze Yellow 0.15 NO WATER, NO GROWTH Does Asia have enough water to develop? Water use mix Agriculture 62% Industry 12% Municipal 26% Water use per capita: 203m 3 /pax For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected] For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018 © China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected]
Transcript of INDUS RIVER - chinawaterrisk.org · INDUS RIVER Indus River originates from high mountain lakes on...
INDUS RIVER
KEY COUNTRY EXPOSURE
RIVER FLOW & RUNOFF MIX
CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST & FUTURE TREND
ICE RESERVES & GLACIER MELT
Afghanistan
Annual flow estimation
Temperature Change (°C)(RCP4.5)
Hydrological Changes (mm/year)(RCP4.5)
China India Pakistan
Note: the share of surface water resources refers to the ratio of surface water produced internally by the river in the respective country and the country’s total renewable surface water.
Source: China Water Risk based on data from Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Rainfall, snowfall and runoff change are expressed in equivalent water height. All data are calculated from five ensemble model (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, CCSM4, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR) in IPCC AR5.
Source: China Water Risk based on calculation by CAS-IGSNRR usingMPI-HM, PCRGLOBWB and WaterGAP hydrological models
Surface WaterResources
Population
GDP
24%
30%
40%
GDP
Population
Surface WaterResources
0.002%
0.004%
0.4%
GDP
Population
Surface WaterResources
4%
7%
8%
1956-2005 2006-2055
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
GDP
Population
Surface WaterResources
25%
88%
92%
Runoff mix in the upper Indus
Souce: China Water Risk based on Lutz et al (2014)
Glaciermelt40%
Base flow11%
Snow melt22%
Rainfall-runoff27%
Based on several sources, the contribution of glacier melt and snow melt to the runoffs in the Upper Indus could range from 62% to 71%
DEFINITIONS (FAO AQUASTAT):− River flow/runoffs: the amount
of river water that flows in a given time
− Surface water produced internally: long-term average annual volume of surface water generated by direct runoff from endogenous precipitation (surface runoff) and groundwater contributions
− Total renewable surface water: the sum of the internal renew-able surface water resources and the total external renewable surface water resources
Glaciers in the Indus:Number: 18,495
Glacier area shrinkage:
146
-0.6
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1956-2005 2006-2055
1.14 1.81-0.4
Snowfall Rainfall Runoff
-0.22
-0.50
0.41 0.32
-0.25
0.08
68x Three GorgesDams
>Ice reserves:2,696 km3 79%
5,700 masl
of Indus’s glacier areas
are below
masl = metres above sea level
= 4,239-5,086 km220-24%
2007-2050(under RCP4.5)
197bn m3
NO WATER, NO GROWTHDoes Asia have enough water to develop?
Glacier area: 21,193 km253% size of Switzerland
INDUS RIVERIndus River originates from high mountain lakes on the Third Pole and runs through China, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan before emptying into the Arabian Sea. 47% of the Indus River Basin faces ‘extremely high’ water stress.
THE INDUS RIVER BASIN
THE INDUS MATTERS FOR COUNTRIES, PEOPLE & THE ECONOMY
Length
Basin Area
Annual flow
Flow through
Share of ice & snow melt in upper reach
Average surface water resources
Basin population
Basin GDP in 2015
Transboundary
2,880 km
1.08-1.26 million km2
146-197 billion m3
Afghanistan, China, India, Pakistan
62-79% of runoff
155 billion m3
276 million
US$380 billion (constant 2010 price)
YesIndia and Pakistan signed the ‘Indus Waters Treaty’ in 1960.
Total surface water resources = 155 billion m3
Total population = 276 million
Total 2015 GDP (constant 2010 price) = US$380 billion
Pakistan39% Pakistan
61%
India46%
India34%
Pakistan52%
India46%
China7%
China0.02%
Afghanistan9%
Afghanistan5%
China0.06%
Afghanistan2%
GDP mix
Industry38%
Agriculture23%
Services39%
Water Use Per Unit GDP (m3/USD)
Irraw
addy
Amu
Dan
ya
Brah
map
utra
Mek
ong
Salw
een
Gan
ges
Tarim
Indu
s
Yang
tze
Yello
w
0.15
NO WATER, NO GROWTHDoes Asia have enough water to develop?
Water use mix
Agriculture62%
Industry12%
Municipal26%
Water use per capita: 203m3/pax
For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018© China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected]
For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018© China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected]
0 100 200km
IndusIndus
Legend
Cities300k-5mn5-10mn
10-15mn
15-20mn
Over 20mn
HKH GlaciersRiver BasinMajor Rivers
© China Water Risk. Data Source: ICIMOD; Randolph Glacier Inventory; FAO AQUAmaps; Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of SciencesThis map uses UN urban population data. However, if we add rural population and other temporary residents living within the municipal boundary of cities, the total population can be larger.
