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Indonesia Economic Development

and Prospects

Indonesia Economic DevelopmentIndonesia Economic Development

and Prospectsand Prospects

Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti

Coordinating Minister For Economic Affairs

Keynote Address

“Surveying the Future – Contributions to

Economic, Environmental and Social Development”

JW Marriott Hotel – Jakarta

Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun KuntjoroProf. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro--JaktiJakti

Coordinating Minister For Economic AffairsCoordinating Minister For Economic Affairs

Keynote AddressKeynote Address

“Surveying the Future “Surveying the Future –– Contributions to Contributions to

Economic, Environmental and Social Development”Economic, Environmental and Social Development”

JW Marriott Hotel JW Marriott Hotel –– JakartaJakarta

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REFORMS HAVE ACHIEVED SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS

Main AreasMain Areas Key MilestonesKey Milestones Remaining ChallengesRemaining Challenges ProgressProgress

Macroeconomic Macroeconomic StabilityStability

Legal and Legal and judiciary reformjudiciary reform

MicroeconomicMicroeconomicSectorSector

•• Amendment to 1945 ConstitutionAmendment to 1945 Constitution•• Law for Independent courts under MALaw for Independent courts under MA•• Anti corruption, money launderingAnti corruption, money laundering•• 7 new courts7 new courts

Political reformPolitical reform

No progress

-- Macroeconomic stabil ityMacroeconomic stabil ity-- Economic/Financial reformsEconomic/Financial reforms-- improved Debt Managementimproved Debt Management-- New laws, regulations and institutionNew laws, regulations and institution

•• Completion of IBRA, sold almost 400,000 Completion of IBRA, sold almost 400,000 accounts back to the marketaccounts back to the market•• Completion of JITF, restructuring Completion of JITF, restructuring

US$20.5bn of private debtUS$20.5bn of private debt•• Solve Liquidity Credit issue with BISolve Liquidity Credit issue with BI

•• Deregulations of key sectors: Deregulations of key sectors: energy, telecom, banking, energy, telecom, banking, transportationtransportation

•• National Team for Exports and InvNational Team for Exports and Inv•• OneOne--roof service for Investmentroof service for Investment

•• One of most democratic system in One of most democratic system in AsiaAsia

•• Freest press in SE AsiaFreest press in SE Asia•• Freedom of expressionFreedom of expression

•• Maintain stabil ity in the long runMaintain stabil ity in the long run

•• Remaining assets transferred to PPARemaining assets transferred to PPA

Full progress

•• Contradictory lawsContradictory laws•• Judiciary systems tainted withJudiciary systems tainted with

issues of corruptionissues of corruption

•• Better balanced b/w central and Better balanced b/w central and regional powersregional powers•• Improved industrial relationsImproved industrial relations

Bank and Debt Bank and Debt RestructuringRestructuring

•• Improved image and Improved image and investment climateinvestment climate

•• Global and regional conditionsGlobal and regional conditions

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MUCH IMPROVED MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

1.2**1.91.73.5Budget Deficit (% GDP)

4.8**4.5*3.73.4Economic Growth (%)

10,452

28.02

-11.0

17.62

12.55

2001

8,500**8,4659,375Rupiah/USD

34.9****36.2532.04Foreign Exchange Reserves (billion USD)

7.0** 5.23.4Non-oil and non-gas exports growth (%)

7.42***8.3112.99SBI one-month rate (%)

6.50**5.0610.03Inflation (%)

200420032002

*) 2000 Base Year **) Government’s Target ***) As of 13 August 20044

MUCH IMPROVED FINANCIAL RISK INDICATORS

7.99.3-21.8Rupiah fluctuation to USD (y-o-y),

(- : depreciation)

67.781.287.7Public Debt (% GDP)

7.06.65.9Foreign Exchange Reserves in months of imports and debt amortization

B+CCC+CCCGovernment’s Debt Rating (S&P)

58.112.4-17.9Change in Jakarta Composite Index

(y-o-y)

200320022001

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Indonesia: Negara Kepulauan Terbesar di Dunia

1. Memiliki wilayah laut terluas (5,8 juta km2) dan jumlah pulau terbanyak (17.508).

2. Panjang Kepulauan Indonesia dari ujung ke ujung sama dengan jarak dari Dublin keMoscow.

3. Panjang pantai di Indonesia mencakup 81.000 km dan merupakan kedua terpanjang didunia setelah Canada, namun merupakan pantai tropis terpanjang di dunia.

4. Selain itu luas laut dalam (inner sea) Indonesia mencakup 2/3 luas Laut Tengah.6

Potensi Sumber Daya Alam Indonesia

� Panjang garis pantai > 81,000 km

� 17,508 pulau

� 5.8 juta km2 luas laut (3x luasdaratan)

� 37% species dunia

� Pusat keanekaragaman tropis dunia(> 70 genus dr karang, 18% terumbukarang dunia ada di Indonesia)

� 30% hutan bakau dunia ada diIndonesia

� Tempat padang lamun dan kimaterbanyak

� 90% hasil tangkapan ikan berasaldari perairan pesisir dalam 12 mil laut dari pantai.

Kekayaan Alam Indonesia yang sebagian besar terletak di Kawasan Timur:

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INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING ROUTE

4 SLOCs• MALACCA : 3 NAVIES JOINT PATROL

• SUNDA

• LOMBOK

• OMBAI - WETAR

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Volcanic Belt Throughout Indonesia

Volcanic Zones Fault Zones

Subduction Zones 8

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Around 130 active volcanoes in Indonesia

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TRADE VALUE AMONG REGIONS(USD Billion, 2001)

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Maritime Transport Trend 1960 - 1990

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± 40% ofWorld Tonnage

± 25% ofWorld Tonnage

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Oil & Gas Cargo

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3

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MALACCA STRAIT:

MORE THAN 30% OF WORLD CARGO TRAFFIC

20,66519,46815,974SUBTOTAL OF TANKERS

59,31455,96743,965TOTAL REPORTING TRAFFIC

38,64936,49927,991ALL OTHER TRAFFIC

35%35%36%PERCENTAGE OF TANKERS

3,0862,9622,473LNG / LPG

14,27613,34311,474CRUDE / PRODUCT TANKERS

3,3033,1632,027VLCC/DEEP DRAUGHT VESSELS

200120001999BASED ON VESSEL TRAFFIC SYSTEM (PER DAY)

Source : MARINE DEPARTMENT PENINSULAR MALAYSIA 13 14

ROUTE TANKER DI PERAIRAN INDONESIA

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ARUS LAUT INDONESIA (ARLINDO)

Merupakan bagian dari conveyor belt yang mengelilingi dunia.16

Ocean Conveyor Belt System

INSTANT Program

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Indonesian Indonesian ThroughflowThroughflow (ITF) Pathway (ITF) Pathway from Pacific Ocean to Indian Oceanfrom Pacific Ocean to Indian Ocean

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Sumber: Dep. Kelautan dan Perikanan

POTENSI DAN PRODUKSI IKANTahun 2001

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INDONESIA METAL MINERALS DEPOSIT, 2003

Bauxite

Gold

Gold Placer

Nickel

Iron Sand

Silver

Cooper

Tin

Manggan

NOTES

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186.86

111.21

956.81

649.67

1,259.90270.08

308,30

1,247.50

136.01

ACEH

CENTRALSUMATERA

SOUTH

SUMATERA

IRIAN JAYA

PROVEN OIL RESERVE (MMB)

NATUNA

EAST JAVA

INDONESIA OIL RESERVE

(Status 1 January 2003)

EAST

KALIMANTAN

NORTH SUMATERA

WEST JAVA

7.47

MALUKU

7.47

21

9.78

1.13

6.83

14.10

7.195.48

54.21

49.27

0.62

19.53

ACEH

CENTRAL

SUMATERA

SOUTH

SUMATERASOUTH

SULAW ESI

EAST

KALIMANTAN

IRIAN JAYA

GAS RESERVE (TSCF)

NATUNA

EAST JAVA

INDONESIA GAS RESERVE(Status 1 January 2003)

NORTH

SUMATERA

WEST JAVA

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5.0

12.2

55.1

9.3

ACEH

CENTRAL

SUMATERA

SOUTH

SUMATERA

EAST

KALIMANTAN

COAL RESERVE (%)

10.6SOUTH

KALIMANTAN

INDONESIA COAL RESOURCES(Status 1 January 2003)

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RESOURCES ( MWe ) RESERVE (MWe)LOCATION

SPECULATIVE HYPOTETIC POSSIBLE PROBABLE PROVEN

SUMATRA 5,705 2,433 5,419 15 499

JAVA - BALI 2,300 1,611 3,088 603 1,727

NUSA TENGGARA 150 438 631 14

SULAWESI 1,000 125 632 110 65

MALUKU / IRIAN 325 117 142 - -

Total 251 locations

9,530 4,714 9,912 728 2,305

14,244 12,945

-

KALIMANTAN 50 ----

Total : 27,189

INSTALLED

CAPACITY

Total 807 MWe

2

785

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PenataanRuang

PengembanganInfrastruktur

PengembanganWilayah/Ekonomi

PENGEMBANGAN INFRASTRUKTUR DAN PENATAAN RUANG

BKTRN

KKPPI

BP-KAPET

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KERUSAKAN HUTAN DI SUMATERA BAGIAN SELATAN

Sumber: Global Forest Watch

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Zona Penyangga Hijau (Green Belt)

Permukiman Kota

KONSEP

PENATAAN

KAWASAN

SURABAYA RAYA

Kawasan Perekonomian

GRESIK

KAMAL

SURABAYA

PO RO NG

KRIAN

CERME

MALANG

SEMARANG

BANGKALAN

YOGYAKARTA

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SURAMADU BRIDGE

FIRST INTER ISLAND BRIDGE

Connected Java – Madura

5 km span with cable stayed, finish by 2007

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ARTIST IMPRESSION

PELABUHAN BOJONEGARA

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To Europe

To USA

Proposed Bojonegoro As National Hub Port

TANJUNG

PRIOKBOJONEGARA

To EUROPE

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RENCANA JARINGAN ASIA HIGHWAY

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PRIORITAS PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL DI PULAU JAWA

SurabayaSampang

BangkalanPamekas an

Pamekas an

Kalianget

Merak

Serang

Pandeglang

JAKARTA

Bogor

Bandung

BekasiCikampek

SumedangSukabumi

CirebonPemal ang Semarang Kudus

Yogjakarta

Ngawi

Mojokerto

Malang

ProbolinggoPanarukan

Banyuwangi

Bondowoso Bajulmati

Gresik

Tuban

Bojonegoro

Lamongan

Caruban

Madiun Kertosono

Batang

PurwokertoWonosobo

Cilacap

Kebumen

Kuningan

Garut

Tasikmal ayaSindangbarang

Dawuan

Subang

Pacitan

WonogiriPonorogo

Labuhan

Pejagan

Tangerang

Gempol

Gempol- Pandaan (14 km)

Probolinggo-Banyuwngi 156 km)

Gempol- Pasuruan (32 km)

Solo-Mantingan (58 km)

Kertosono-Mojokerto (38 km)

Pemalang-Batang (35 km)

Semarang-Batang (75 km)

Semarang-Bawen (22 km)

Semarang-Demak (58 km)Cirebon-Pejagan (34 km)

Pejagan-Pemalang (56 km)

Yogja-Solo (45 km)

Dawuan-Palimanan (24,5 km)

Subang-Dawuan (52,5 km)

Sukabumi-Ciranjang (31 km)

Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan(Thp I : Cileunyi-Sumedang (25 km))

Cikampek-Padalarang (52 km)

Pandaan-Malang (30 km)

SS Waru -Tj. Perak (13,5 km)

Waru (Aloha)-Tj. Perak (18,4 km)

Pasuruan-Probolinggo (40 km)

Mojokerto-Surabaya (37 km)

JORR (SeksiE2, E3, N (19,2 km))

JORR 2 (157 km)

Ciawi-Sukabumi (54 km)

JORR (Seksi W1 (9,8 km))

Cikampek-Subang (37 km)

Bogor Ring Road (10,5 km)

Ciranjang-Padalarang (33 km)

Jembt. Suramadu (5,44 km)

Jalan Tol Operasi

Rencana Jalan Tol

Jalan Arteri

Keterangan :

Purwakart a

Ciawi

Cianjur

Padalarang

Demak

Surakarta

Pandaan

Pasuruan

Mantingan - Ngawi (27 km)

Bawen-Solo (58 km)

Ngawi-Kertosono (84 km)

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NATIONAL AIRPORT AND SERVICES

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KETAPING AIRPORT

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New airport in West Sumatra

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ASIAN RAILWAY THROUGH INDONESIA

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5,212,492,72Distribution (200,000 Km)

6,234,202,03Rural Electrification

(8,800 locations)

29,0913,6015,29Total

2,070,841,23Sub Station (50,000 MVA)

1,440,870,57Transmission (17,000 Km)

14,145,208,94Generation (17,500 MW)

IndonesiaOutside

JAMALI

JAMALI

(Java-Madura-

Bali)

Electricity Facilities

ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT 2003 – 2010 (Billion USD)

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Integrated Indonesian Gas Transmission Systems

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A STRATEGY IN THE MAKING

• EXISTING GROWTH AREAS : Jawa, Bali, East-Coast Sumatera, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, etc.

• CROSS BORDER AND COOPERATION AREAS : BIMP-EAGA, IMT-GT, IMS-GT, AIDA

THE PULL IS STILL EAST ASIA

NEXT 20 YEARS: SYDNEY – DARWIN ?

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Sub Regional Cooperation in East Asia

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TRANSHIPMENT & HUB PORT IN EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

Trade TransactionIn Pacific

Tokyo-Yokohama-KobeSeoul-Incheon-Busan

Taipei-KaoshiungHongkong-Macau-Shenzhen

Manila-Subic-Clark

Singapura/

Tjg Pelepas

Sidney-Melbourne

Labuan

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NEW RAILWAY TRACKFROM DARWIN

TO ALICE SPRING

DARWIN: THE NEW MARITIME HUB

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Jakarta, 4 October 2004

Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian

Alamat situs Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian:www.ekon.go.id

Thank You