Global Economic Prospects Jan 2013
25
January 2013 Global Economic Prospect s Assuring growth over the medium term THE WORLD BANK
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Transcript of Global Economic Prospects Jan 2013
January 2013
Global Economi
cProspect
s
Assuringgrowth over the medium
term THE WORLD BANK
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '130
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800Portugal
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Euro Area (GDP weighted)
DEFAULT RISK IS DOWN IN EURO AREA SOVEREIGNS
Credit default swap rates, basis points
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '130
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800Portugal
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Euro Area (GDP weighted)
DEFAULT RISK IS DOWN IN EURO AREA SOVEREIGNS
Credit default swap rates, basis points
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
GROSS CAPITAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES HAVE REBOUNDED
$ billions
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 New equity issuanceBond issuanceSyndicated Bank-lending
Source: World Bank, Dealogic.
Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), points
5
BUT RAPID GROWTH REMAINS ELUSIVE AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE WEAK
Source: World Bank, Markit/Haver Analytics.
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '1243
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
Other developing
China
Other high-income
Euro Area
WEAKNESS IN HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES SAPPED IP GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN 2012
Industrial production, percent growth, 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Datasteam.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Other high incomeEuro Area
WEAKNESS IN HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES SAPPED IP GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN 2012
Industrial production, percent growth, 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Datasteam.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
China
Other high incomeEuro Area
WEAKNESS IN HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES SAPPED IP GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN 2012
Industrial production, percent growth, 3m/3m saar
Source: World Bank, Datasteam.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
China
Other developing
Other high incomeEuro Area
GROWTH PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FOR 2012 AND 2013, ALTHOUGH GROWTH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TRAJECTORYAnnual GDP growth, %
9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Developing countries
World
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Developing countries
World
GROWTH PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FOR 2012 AND 2013, ALTHOUGH GROWTH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TRAJECTORYAnnual GDP growth, %
10Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Developing countries
World
GROWTH PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FOR 2012 AND 2013, ALTHOUGH GROWTH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TRAJECTORYAnnual GDP growth, %
11Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
GROWTH PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FOR 2012 AND 2013, ALTHOUGH GROWTH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TRAJECTORYAnnual GDP growth, %
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Developing countries
High-income countriesWorld
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
GROWTH PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FOR 2012 AND 2013, ALTHOUGH GROWTH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TRAJECTORYAnnual GDP growth, %
13
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Developing countries
High-income countriesWorld
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
GROWTH PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FOR 2012 AND 2013, ALTHOUGH GROWTH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE TRAJECTORYAnnual GDP growth, %
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Developing countries
High-income countriesWorld
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
Prolonged fiscal paralysis Contained Euro crisis
Abrupt decline in Chinese investment
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
-2.22044604925031E-16
0.2
15
PROSPECTS ARE VULNERABLE TO A RANGE OF EXTERNAL RISKS
Change in 2013 real GDP from baseline, percent
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean Middle-East & North AfricaSouth Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Prolonged fiscal paralysis Contained Euro crisis
Abrupt decline in Chinese investment
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
16
PROSPECTS ARE VULNERABLE TO A RANGE OF EXTERNAL RISKS
Change in 2013 real GDP from baseline, percent
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean Middle-East & North AfricaSouth Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Prolonged fiscal paralysis Contained Euro crisis
Abrupt decline in Chinese investment
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
17
PROSPECTS ARE VULNERABLE TO A RANGE OF EXTERNAL RISKS
Change in 2013 real GDP from baseline, percent
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean Middle-East & North AfricaSouth Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Prolonged fiscal paralysis Contained Euro crisis
Abrupt decline in Chinese investment
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
18
PROSPECTS ARE VULNERABLE TO A RANGE OF EXTERNAL RISKS
Change in 2013 real GDP from baseline, percent
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean Middle-East & North AfricaSouth Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
ECONOMIES WITH FISCAL SPACE CAN REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
% of GDP impact on developing economies of a 5% decline in high-income activity
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
ECONOMIES WITH FISCAL SPACE CAN REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
with adequate fiscal space
% of GDP impact on developing economies of a 5% decline in high-income activity
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
ECONOMIES WITH FISCAL SPACE CAN REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
with adequate fiscal spacewithout adequate fiscal space
% of GDP impact on developing economies of a 5% decline in high-income activity
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Developing country, per capita income, % of 2010 high-income level
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS IN POTENTIAL GROWTH RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LONG RUN GAINS
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Baseline projection
Developing country, per capita income, % of 2010 high-income level
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS IN POTENTIAL GROWTH RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LONG RUN GAINS
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8Rapid growth (+ 1.0 pp per annum)
Faster growth (+ 0.5 pp pa)
High growth scenario results in develop-ing-country incomes of 75% high-income 2010 levels in 2050 versus 52% in baseline
Baseline projection
Developing country, per capita income, % of 2010 high-income level
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS IN POTENTIAL GROWTH RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LONG RUN GAINS
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8Rapid growth (+ 1.0 pp per annum)
Faster growth (+ 0.5 pp pa)
Slow growth (- 1.0 pp pa)
Weaker growth (-0.5 pp pa)
High growth scenario results in develop-ing-country incomes of 75% high-income 2010 levels in 2050 versus 52% in baseline
Baseline projection
Developing country, per capita income, % of 2010 high-income level
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS IN POTENTIAL GROWTH RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LONG RUN GAINS
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013A.
