India Strategy October 2014

8/10/2019 India Strategy October 2014

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India Strategy16th Oct 2014


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After several months of upsurge markets took breather onaccount of mixed domestic macro number and inanticipation of US hiking interest rates sooner than latter.Except China most of the emerging and developed marketswere negative performers on weaker global growth. Niftyclosed the month with a gain of 0.13% and CNX500 with again of 0.86% in September 14. Automobile and IT showedsome resilience compared to other sectors.

During the month, oil prices fell considerably below $95which was favorable for Indian and emerging economies. US

Fed did not indicate precisely the timeline over the raising ofinterest rates and RBI remained stringent on loweringinterest rates on high inflation. Events like Chinese Presidentvisit to India and Indian PMs US visit was done with butdidnt gave that run up to the markets as anticipated eventhough the visits was beneficiary to India. Earning season

kicked with strong numbers posted by Infosys. Lower crudeoil price would reduce subsidies for Govt. as well as OMC.

Monthly returns of major BSE Sectoral Indices:

IT 5.97%, Bank (2.16)%,

Metal (6.88)%, Oil & Gas (4.08)%,

Auto 2.62%, Power (3.12)%,and Realty (8.46)%.

Source: Bloomberg, Microsec Research

2

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT

Key Highlights

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%Price Movement of Nifty & CNX500

Nifty CNX 500

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%5%

10%

15%BSE Sectoral Performance

REALTY METAL POWER BANK

OIL & GAS AUTO IT


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Domestic and Foreign Institution

FIIs have remained net buyers of the equity segment for the 13th consecutive month in September14. FIIs werenet buyers of INR5,448.20 crores in the equity segment during the month of September 14. During April September FY15 they were net buyers of INR62,404.50 crores.

DIIs were net sellers during September 14. DIIs were net sellers of INR419.61 crore in the month of September14 but during April September FY15 they were net sellers of INR17,355.18 crore.

Source: NSE, SEBI, Bloomberg, Microsec Research

SMART MONEY

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

FII Flow ( INR in Crs)

Buy Sell Net

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

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30000

40000

50000

DII Flow (INR in Crs)

Buy Sell Net


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4

Global Market Returns

Source: Bloomberg, Microsec Research Note: Returns are as on October 08, 2014

Particulars 1M 3M 6M 1YR 3 YR

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 6.59 16.21 16.38 9.57 1.00

NIKKEI 225 (0.69) 1.84 6.77 12.24 81.23

PSEi - PHILIPPINE SE IDX (1.77) 3.41 9.08 11.32 79.23DOW JONES INDUS. AVG (2.29) (1.11) 2.85 13.15 50.58

BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX (2.97) 7.09 11.25 9.79 12.08

Straits Times Index STI (3.25) (1.72) 0.71 2.55 22.21

S&P 500 INDEX (3.32) (1.46) 4.49 16.89 67.47

MEXICO IPC INDEX (3.93) 2.61 8.87 11.57 34.94S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX (3.93) 2.60 17.47 31.34 61.69

NSE CNX NIFTY INDEX (4.05) 2.88 17.14 32.29 60.45

KOSPI INDEX (4.11) (2.06) (1.39) (1.87) 11.68

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (4.51) (0.14) 6.62 18.68 76.87

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX (4.81) (6.04) 0.75 6.92 24.17

FTSE 100 INDEX (5.07) (3.72) (1.56) 1.92 22.34

CAC 40 INDEX (6.23) (3.37) (5.17) 1.51 35.55

DAX INDEX (7.30) (7.44) (4.69) 5.72 59.37

HANG SENG INDEX (7.65) (1.18) 2.95 0.36 31.38

RUSSIAN RTS INDEX $ (11.73) (21.11) (8.05) (25.29) (16.20)


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MSCI India performance against other emerging markets

Over the past 3 years, MSCI India P/E commanded premium over MSCI Emerging Markets. Since Feb 09,Indian markets were at par with the Emerging Markets and are gaining momentum post Jan 10. Currently,MSCI India Market and Emerging Markets P/E maintaining the widened gap and India is commanding adecent premium.

On a monthly basis, relative returns of MSCI Indian Markets has outperformed the MSCI Emerging markets.MSCI Indian Markets grew by 0.26%, whereas, MSCI Emerging Markets declined by(7.51)%,in absoluteterms over the last one month.


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Relative Returns ( )

MSCI EM MSCI IN

5

10

15

20

India Premium to MSCI EM

MSCI EM MSCI IN


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MSCI India IT sectors outperformed the US and Global markets on monthly basis. On quarterly basis also,MSCI India Consumer Staple, Energy, Health Care, IT and Telecom sectors outperformed the US and Globalpeers.

On a yearly basis, MSCI India Energy, Finance, Industrial and Material sectors outperformed the US andGlobal markets.


MSCI Sectoral Performance

Note: Data as on October 08, 2014

1M ( ) 3M ( ) 1Yr ( ) 1M ( ) 3M ( ) 1Yr ( ) 1M ( ) 3M ( ) 1Yr ( )

Consumer Staple (1.44) 10.85 9.61 1.98 1.48 15.77 (1.58) (3.59) 9.02

Energy (9.42) (4.81) 16.26 (6.79) (11.48) 8.66 (8.05) (13.17) 5.12

Finance (5.00) (2.48) 30.82 (0.09) 1.41 17.13 (3.37) (3.14) 6.72

HealthCare (3.42) 14.89 29.47 1.21 5.24 29.85 (0.30) 2.11 24.93

Industrial (9.59) (11.95) 59.45 (3.14) (3.64) 13.30 (5.15) (6.63) 5.27

IT (0.16) 11.19 24.62 (1.04) 2.64 27.60 (1.65) 1.47 23.97

Material (10.37) (9.78) 25.17 (3.65) (3.55) 16.05 (7.61) (11.32) 1.08

Telecom (6.36) 7.69 (4.06) 1.21 0.58 9.83 (2.67) (4.19) 3.87

Utility (3.16) (9.67) 14.33 1.86 0.98 15.95 (1.48) (3.31) 8.77

India USA Global


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Twin Pillars of Emerging Markets India and China registered Manufacturing PMI

(Purchasing Managers Index) value of 51.0 and51.1 respectively for the month of September 14.A reading above 50 means an expansion inmanufacturing activity, while one below 50indicates a contraction.

Indias Manufacturing activity during the month ofSeptember 14, expanded at the slowest pace innine months amid weaker output and new order

flows. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India PMIdipped from 52.4 in August to 51.0 in September.On the other hand, China's factory activityremained unchanged at its previous month level.Chinas official Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.1in September same as in August.

While, Chinas domestic market (Shanghaicomposite) increased by 0.71% in the last onemonth, Chinas HSCEI declined by (1.50)% inAugust 14. In comparison with China, Indias

Nifty increased by 3.02% respectively.

I N D IA CH IN A

Sep-14 51.0 51.1

Aug-14 52.4 51.1

Jul-14 53.0 51.7

Jun-14 51.5 51.0May-14 51.4 50.8

Apr-14 51.3 50.4

Mar-14 51.3 50.3

Feb-14 52.5 50.2

Jan-14 51.4 50.5

Dec-13 50.7 51.0

Nov-13 51.3 51.4Oct-13 49.6 51.4

Sep-13 49.6 51.1

PM I

-7%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%5%

7%

9%Relative Performance ( )

NIFTY HSCEI SHANGHAI


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Indias Key Economic Indicators


-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

IIP Trend (y-o-y )

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Inflation Trend (y-o-y )

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Export Trend (y-o-y )

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Import Trend (y-o-y )


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Contd

Global Key Economic Indicators & Developments

Source: Bloomberg, News Reports

The U.S. Federal Reserve in its September policy meeting kept interest rate unchanged at 0.00-0.25% and added itwould likely close its monthly bond-buying program in October.

Minutes of September the U.S. FOMC policy meeting showed that the Federal Reserve stressed "patience" inwaiting to raise interest rates, worrying about weaker global economic growth and the stronger dollar.

China has surpassed the U.S. in terms of GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), becoming the largest inthe world by this measure, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. In 2014 China reached USD17.6trillion or 16.48% of the worlds purchasing-power-adjusted GDP, while the U.S. made slightly less, 16.28% orUSD17.4 trillion.

The U.S. New Home Sales climbed 18% in August 14 from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of504,000. That marked the biggest one-month jump since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 08, whenthe U.S. was in recession.

The U.S. Housing Starts fell 14.4% in August from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 956,000units.

The European Central Bank said it will start purchasing private sector assets as soon as this month, in an attemptto revive lending in the eurozone and stave off the risk of deflation.

China's Trade Surplus hit a record high in August 14. Exports in August rose 9.4% YoY to USD208.5 billion,whereas, Imports registered YoY decrease of 2.4% to reach USD158.6 billion. As a result, Trade Surplus reachedan all-time high of USD49.8 billion.


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LME Base metals


010,00,000

20,00,000

30,00,000

40,00,000

50,00,000

60,00,000

0500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Aluminium

Inventories (MT) LME 3MO (USD)

0

1,00,000

2,00,000

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7,00,000

8,00,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

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12,000

Copper

Inventories (MT) LME 3 MO (USD)

0

2,00,000

4,00,0006,00,000

8,00,000

10,00,000

12,00,000

14,00,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000Zinc


0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

0

500

1000

1500

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Lead



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Contd

Indias Domestic Commercial Vehicles sales declined by 5.6% YoY to 48,473 units in August 14. During themonth, sales of Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs) registered a growth of 9.6% YoY and salesof Light Commercial Vehicles decline at a rate of 12.1% YoY.

Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India during the Month of August 14 were 5.69 lakh as compared to 4.86 lakhduring the month of August 13 and 4.46 lakh in August 12. There has been a growth of 16.9% YoY in August14 as compared to 9.1% YoY registered in August 13.


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Commercial vehicle sales (y-o-y )

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

0100000200000

300000400000500000600000700000800000900000

Tourist Arrivals

Tourist Arrivals Tourist Arrivals (YoY%)


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Trade Balance & Currency

India's merchandise Exports growth slowed to a

five-month low in August because of the downturnin euro zone, but lower Oil Imports helpedmoderate Trade Deficit to the least in three months.Exports rose 2.35% YoY to USD27 billion in August14 while Imports growth also slowed to 2.08% YoYto USD37.8 billion, leading to a narrower Trade

Deficit of USD10.8 billion.

Indian rupee (INR) depreciated by 2.05% againstUSD during September 14. During the month, INRdepreciated against USD from 60.5150 to 61.7575. In

September, rupee fell to its lowest level in almosttwo months, mainly due to weak sentiments. Alongwith month-end dollar demand and strong dollarmovement, the fall in domestic equity marketfollowing the de-allocation of coal mines by theSupreme Court was the major reason behind this

sharp fall. However, rupee recovered it losses postS&P outlook upgrade.

India's Foreign Exchange Reserves declined byUSD1.415 billion to USD314.182 billion during theweek ended September 26, 2014. On monthly basis,Reserve declined by USD4.458 billion.

Source: Bloomberg, News Reports, Microsec Research

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Trade Balance

35

40

4550

55

60

65

70

150170190210230

250270290310330350

U

S

D

-

N

R

F

e

R

e

v

(

b

Date

Forex Reserves vs USD-INR

Forex Reserve ($bn) USD-INR


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14

Going Forward

OUTLOOK

Indian market is likely to remain volatile due to Global market volatility which isled by fears of Global Economic slowdown led by Europe and China. Electionresults slated to be announced on Oct 19 in two key states will further decideGovernments strength in framing bold policies.

There are many low hanging fruits like insurance bill which need to be cleared in

the winter session of parliament. Lower CPI and WPI may create conduciveenvironment for RBI to cut interest rates by end of the CY14 or early next year.

Geopolitical issues, China slowdown, weakness in global markets and US Fed mayindicate hiking rates sooner will prompt some investors to remain cautious. IndianPM visit to US was successful in many ways if one takes a macro view and speciallystrengthening the defense sector by inviting manufacturing in India to US INC.Earning season has started which would emphasize on stock specifics according tothe performance. Markets in the past has performed on beaten down stockvaluation but henceforth, earnings accretion would bring new run in markets infew upcoming quarters rather than P/E expansion. Favorable outcome on assemblyresults towards Central ruling party would enthuse markets in its ability to clear

key bills in upper house of parliament.

Sharp decline in input prices across industries like crude oil, rubber, cotton yarn,

copper will improve fundamentals across OMCs, Auto-ancilliaries, Textiles andConsumer durable. These sectors may continue to outperform in Oct 2014.

Nifty EPS(E) for CY15 is currently at ~571, Bloomberg consensus. On that basis we

believe Nifty is likely to trade 13.66-14.18x CY15(E) earnings which makes a range

of ~7800-8100 for October 2014. Engineers India, Dredging Corp, Max India,

Finolex Cable, CCL Product, Crompton Gr, IDFC, Tide Water, IL&FS

Transportation, Blue Star, UPL Ltd., Bharat Electronics, Archies Ltd, Exide Ind,

Lloyds Electric, M&M, L&T, Tata Motors, TCS, INFY, RIL, SBI, ONGC may remain

strong.


1,139 1,175 1,273

1,5771,814

0

5

10

15

20

-

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Sensex EPS (Bloomberg) P/E


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Projections

Sectoral Forward Valuation

Source: Bloomberg Note: as on 13thOct 2014

Automobile

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY 1 5 FY 1 6

Hero Motocorp 21.76 17.98 8.52 6.97 13.39 11.42

Bajaj Auto 18.48 16.02 5.73 4.81 14.55 12.61

Mahindra & Mahindra 15.53 12.65 2.89 2.48 10.17 8.57

Maruti Suzuki India 24.55 18.57 3.72 3.18 13.38 10.51

Tata Motors 8.47 7.30 1.94 1.55 3.96 3.43

Average 17.76 14.50 4.56 3.80 11.09 9.31

Company

P /E (x) P /BV (x) E V/E BITDA (x)

Cement

CY1 4 CY1 5 CY1 4 CY1 5 CY1 4 CY1 5

ACC 23.87 18.02 3.14 2.89 14.19 10.66

Ambuja Cements 22.16 18.55 2.74 2.89 8.74 7.13

Ultratech Cement (FY) 25.11 18.32 3.49 2.98 14.00 10.74

Average 23.71 18.30 3.12 2.92 12.31 9.51

Company

P/E (x) P /BV (x) E V/E BI TDA (x)

M eta ls

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY 1 6

Hindalco Industries 10.93 8.38 0.72 0.68 8.19 6.88

JSW Steel 10.55 9.05 1.16 1.04 6.01 5.46

Tata Steel 10.20 8.46 1.00 0.92 6.37 5.88

NALCO 16.40 15.29 1.23 1.18 7.69 6.93

SAIL 11.62 9.63 0.70 0.67 8.41 6.69

Sesa Sterlite 10.67 8.40 0.95 0.87 5.22 4.69

Average 11.73 9.87 0.96 0.89 6.98 6.09

Company

P/E (x) P /BV (x) E V/E BITDA (x)


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Projections

Oil & Ga s

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6

BPCL 15.73 13.97 2.28 2.05 9.45 8.83

Cairn India 5.34 5.42 0.85 0.76 2.91 2.91

GAIL 12.29 11.40 1.59 1.40 8.78 8.05

ONGC 10.89 9.35 1.79 1.59 5.44 4.78

Reliance Industries 11.85 10.64 1.36 1.23 9.25 8.02

HPCL 11.80 9.33 1.15 1.07 9.53 8.70

IOC 13.23 11.31 1.28 1.19 9.39 8.20

Average 11.59 10.20 1.47 1.33 7.82 7.07

Company


Power

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6

NTPC 11.97 11.00 1.26 1.19 9.68 8.64

NHPC 9.14 8.44 0.70 0.67 7.56 7.37

Tata Power 14.60 12.24 1.52 1.39 7.52 7.29

Power Grid Corp. 13.32 11.15 1.83 1.63 9.77 8.19

Average 12.26 10.71 1.33 1.22 8.63 7.87

Company


Realty

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6

DLF 28.65 20.12 0.91 0.89 14.81 12.56

Unitech 17.19 12.53 0.40 0.39 28.38 23.55

Average 22.92 16.33 0.66 0.64 21.60 18.06

Company



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Projections

Financials

FY 1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY 1 6

SBI 10.40 8.55 1.16 1.04 11.59 12.64

ICICI Bank 15.27 12.92 2.12 1.90 14.54 15.15

Axis Bank 12.60 10.54 2.07 1.78 17.45 17.86

PNB 6.97 5.45 0.86 0.76 12.87 14.12

HDFC Bank 20.34 16.46 4.01 3.36 21.48 22.28

Average 13.12 10.78 2.04 1.77 15.59 16.41

Company

P /E (x) P /BV (x) RO E ( )

Engineering & Capital Goo ds

FY 1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY 1 6

L&T 26.94 20.94 3.22 2.89 16.75 13.63BHEL 19.14 17.81 1.53 1.42 13.09 12.10

Crompton Greaves 28.26 18.82 3.26 2.86 15.65 11.81

Siemens Ltd. (SY) 85.94 53.10 7.02 6.51 42.61 28.82

Average 40.07 27.67 3.76 3.42 22.03 16.59

Company

P /E (x) P /BV (x) E V/E BI TDA (x)

Telecom

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6

Bharti Airtel Ltd. 29.44 22.88 2.39 2.20 6.96 6.22

R.Com 23.02 16.08 0.67 0.64 8.36 7.89

Idea 19.96 17.73 2.56 2.27 7.04 6.10

Average 24.14 18.90 1.87 1.70 7.45 6.74

Company

P /E (x) P /BV (x) E V/E BITDA (x)


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Projections

Infrastructure & Construction

FY1 5 FY 1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY 1 5 FY 1 6

IVRCL Infra NA NA 0.46 0.62 16,74 12.96

HCC NA NA 1.59 1.69 11.41 12.43

Punj Lloyd NA NA 0.55 0.60 9.89 6.53

Gammon India NA NA 1.16 1.33 14.51 12.66

GMR Infra NA NA 1.27 1.40 17.28 11.93

Average NA NA 1.01 1.13 13.27 11.30

Compan y

P /E (x) P /B V (x) E V/E B ITDA (x)

IT

FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY 1 6

Infosys Tech. 18.62 16.63 4.19 3.62 13.10 11.62TCS 24.29 21.07 8.31 6.69 17.92 15.46

Tech Mahindra 17.74 14.80 4.63 3.69 12.01 10.19

HCL Tech 17.11 15.11 4.94 3.96 12.19 10.93

Wipro 16.42 14.60 3.57 3.04 11.96 10.65

Average 18.84 16.44 5.13 4.20 13.44 11.77

Company

P /E (x) P /B V (x) E V/E BITDA (x)

Pharma

FY1 5 FY 1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY 1 5 FY 1 6

Sun Pharmaceuticals 27.04 22.98 6.94 5.51 19.96 16.79

Dr. Reddy's 21.65 18.66 4.59 3.79 14.81 12.85

Cipla 30.91 23.64 4.08 3.55 19.31 15.53

Ranbaxy* 22.18 27.72 5.46 4.59 13.57 17.67

Average 25.45 23.25 5.27 4.36 16.91 15.71

Compan y



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Projections


F M C G

FY1 5 FY 1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6 FY1 5 FY1 6

HUL 38.50 34.49 38.81 33.51 28.22 24.85

ITC 27.21 23.28 8.98 8.00 17.77 15.19

Emami ltd. 36.05 30.43 13.75 11.10 30.59 25.79

Colgate-Palmolive 41.01 35.30 34.39 30.47 28.65 23.92

Nestle India 47.44 40.72 20.67 17.84 27,25 23.93

Pidilite 35.59 28.71 8 .27 6.89 24.47 19.78

Britannia Ind 33.69 27.95 15.41 12.77 22.26 18.72

Dabur India 34.61 29.07 11.24 9.19 26.91 22.78

Average 36.76 31.24 18.94 16.22 25.55 21.87

Company



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I di St t


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27

DISCLAIMER

Team Microsec Research

Contact

Analyst Siddharth Sedani

Sutapa Roy

Email [email protected]

[email protected]

Microsec Research is also accessible on

Bloomberg at

Disclaimer

The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should use this researchas one input into formulating an investment opinion. Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the review ofother. This is not an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy/sell the securities/instruments mentioned or an official confirmation.Microsec Capital Limited is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or for any losses suffered on account of informationcontained in this report. This report does not purport to be offer for purchase and sale of share/ units. We and our affiliates,

officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may: (a) from time totime, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engagedin any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation discussed herein or act as advisor orlenderIborrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation andrelated information and opinions. The same persons may have acted upon the information contained here. No part of thismaterial may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Microsec Capital Limited prior written consent.

FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY

India Strategy


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FundamentalResearch

Name Sectors EmailID

NitinPrakash

Daga IT,

Telecom

&

Entertainment [email protected]

SutapaRoy Economy [email protected]

SanjeevJain BFSI [email protected]

SoumyadipRaha Oil&Gas [email protected]

SarojSingh Auto,cement [email protected]

AjoyMukherjee Pharma

&

Agri

inputs [email protected]

KhusbooJaiswal Midcaps [email protected]

VinitPagaria Derivatives&Technical [email protected]

RanajitSaha TechnicalResearch [email protected]

InstitutionalDesk

AbhishekSharma InstitutionalDesk [email protected]

SiddharthSedani PMSResearch [email protected]

SubhabrataBoral Research

Support [email protected]

VP

ResearchSupport

Asst.Manager

Technology

SeniorVP

Sr.Manager

Dealer

PMSDivision

ResearchAnalyst

ResearchExecutive

Technical&DerivativeResearch

ExecutiveResearch

MicrosecResearch:PhoneNo.: 913330512100 Email:[email protected]

AjayJaiswal:President,InvestmentStrategies,HeadofResearch:[email protected]

Designation

VPResearch

ResearchAnalyst

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ExecutiveResearch

India Strategy


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India Strategy


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India Strategy October 2014

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