India and the Global Rapeseed Market - · PDF fileIndia and the Global Rapeseed Market OFI...
Transcript of India and the Global Rapeseed Market - · PDF fileIndia and the Global Rapeseed Market OFI...
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IndiaandtheGlobalRapeseedMarketOFIIndiaApril2016
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Presentation structure Major producers experienced lucrative boom years in rapeseed before 2013. India has a similar opportunity in rapeseed/mustard seed today. This presentation identifies India’s current opportunity and considers what can be done to embrace it.
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Theworldneededvegetableoils
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
World vegetable oil prices climbed to very high levels from 2000 to 2012. The world needed oils, and rapeseed is a high oil content oilseed.
Worldrapeseedoilpricesto2012
4
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Rapeseed prices rose steeply as a signal to growers to expand their rapeseed areas.
Worldrapeseedpricesto2012
5
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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Producersexpandedtomeetdemand
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Higher prices provided the mechanism for achieving expanded area via crop gross margins (profitability per hectare). In the EU, rapeseed margins were much better than barley and so rapeseed acres replaced barley acres.
Differen=alsincropgrossmarginsinGermanyto2012
7
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gro
ss m
argi
n di
ffere
ntia
l, €
per h
a
Rapeseed/Wheat Rapeseed/Barley
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
In Canada too, crop gross margins signalled to farmers that they should expand their rapeseed (canola) area.
CropgrossmarginsinSaskatchewan,Canadato2012
8
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Canola Flax Durum Dry Peas OtherWheat
CanarySeed
Barley Oats
$US
per a
cre
2015 5 year average
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
The result was that the world’s largest producer, the EU, added 75% to its rapeseed area between 2001 and 2012 in response to these price signals.
EUrapeseedareato2012
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
hect
ares
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Canadarapeseedareato2012
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
hect
ares
The second largest producer, Canada, doubled their canola (rapeseed) area.
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Thenthesitua@onchangedoutsideIndia
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Here we show monthly rapeseed oil prices to January 2013, when the market was indicating that the world wanted more vegetable oils.
Worldrapeseedoilmonthlypricesto2015…
12
600
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Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
From 2013, this changed abruptly, as the supply responses in the leading producers had caught up with demand. (We will come back to India…)
Worldrapeseedoilmonthlypricesto2015…
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US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Lower rapeseed oil prices feed into lower rapeseed prices and then into lower farm gross margins for rapeseed. In this case in Germany…
Differen=alsincropgrossmarginsinGermanyto2015…
14
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gro
ss m
argi
n di
ffere
ntia
l, €
per h
a
Rapeseed/Wheat Rapeseed/Barley
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
German rapeseed margins fell below wheat and came into line with barley, reducing the incentive to switch area to rapeseed.
Differen=alsincropgrossmarginsinGermanyto2015…
15
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gro
ss m
argi
n di
ffere
ntia
l, €
per h
a
Rapeseed/Wheat Rapeseed/Barley
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
The same happened in Canada, where rapeseed had enjoyed the highest crop margins until 2012…
CropgrossmarginsinSaskatchewan,Canadato2015
16
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Canola Flax Durum Dry Peas OtherWheat
CanarySeed
Barley Oats
$US
per a
cre
2015 5 year average
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
By 2015, Canadian canola (rapeseed) crop margins had fallen below most competing crops. The world market was saying “stop expanding”.
CropgrossmarginsinSaskatchewan,Canadato2015
17
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Canola Flax Durum Dry Peas OtherWheat
CanarySeed
Barley Oats
$US
per a
cre
2015 5 year average
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Again, farmers in the major regions responded to these signals, this time by halting their area expansion. Here we show the EU stabilisation…
EUrapeseedareato2015
18
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2
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8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
hect
ares
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
…And here is the area stabilisation in Canada in the last three years. Markets work when they are allowed to do so.
Canadarapeseedareato2015
19
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1
2
3
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9
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
hect
ares
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TheIndiansitua@onisverydifferent
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Although India largely does not import rapeseed oil, its vegetable oil consumption is now expanding aggressively while the rest of the world has stalled.
MonthlyIndianvegetableoilimports
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0
200
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800
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1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
'000
tonn
es
Soybean Oil Palm Oil Sunflower Oil Palm Kernel Oil
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Now let’s add India to world rapeseed oil prices since 2012
Worldrapeseedoilmonthlypricesto2015
22
600
700
800
900
1,000
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1,400
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US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
The Indian price has separated from world markets. India still needs vegetable oil. The price signal is in place in oils…
Worldrapeseedoilmonthlypricesto2015
23
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
The price signal is also in place in Indian rapeseed markets, which should stimulate a farmer response.
Worldrapeseedmonthlypricesto2015
24
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
US$
per t
onne
India EU Canada
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Soybean area has increased six-fold in response to meal demand, but rapeseed area has stagnated since 1990, despite its high oil content.
OilseedareainIndia
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Harv
este
d ar
ea ('
000
hect
ares
)
Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Indian soybean production has responded to local market price signals and expanded its area. Why has rapeseed failed to follow suit?
Indiansoybeanproduc=onvs.Indiansoybeanprice
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200
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450
500
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600
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3
4
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9
10
11
12
13
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Price (US$ per tonne)
Prod
uctio
n (m
illio
n to
nnes
)
Indian soybean production Indian soybean price
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Conclusion:Indiaismissinganopportunity
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Around the world, leading producers responded to market price signals by expanding, and then stabilising, rapeseed area.
Rapeseed:AnIndianOpportunity
28
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Around the world, leading producers responded to market price signals by expanding, and then stabilising, rapeseed area.
In India, producers have not responded in the same way. Indian rapeseed area has not expanded, despite high prices.
Rapeseed:AnIndianOpportunity
29
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Around the world, leading producers responded to market price signals by expanding, and then stabilising, rapeseed area.
In India, producers have not responded in the same way. Indian rapeseed area has not expanded, despite high prices.
The Indian solution is to import vegetable oil, even though rapeseed is well suited to satisfying oil demand. An opportunity missed.
Rapeseed:AnIndianOpportunity
30
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Around the world, leading producers responded to market price signals by expanding, and then stabilising, rapeseed area.
In India, producers have not responded in the same way. Indian rapeseed area has not expanded, despite high prices.
The Indian solution is to import vegetable oil, even though rapeseed is well suited to satisfying oil demand. An opportunity missed.
In contrast to the rest of the world today, Indian food oil demand is still booming. Indian prices are telling producers to expand.
Rapeseed:AnIndianOpportunity
31
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Around the world, leading producers responded to market price signals by expanding, and then stabilising, rapeseed area.
In India, producers have not responded in the same way. Indian rapeseed area has not expanded, despite high prices.
The Indian solution is to import vegetable oil, even though rapeseed is well suited to satisfying oil demand. An opportunity missed.
In contrast to the rest of the world today, Indian food oil demand is still booming. Indian prices are telling producers to expand.
But rapeseed area refuses to budge. The Indian rapeseed market is failing, and Indian agriculture is missing a huge opportunity.
Rapeseed:AnIndianOpportunity
32
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© 2016 LMC International. All rights reserved. The Global Rapeseed Market and India, April 2016
Around the world, leading producers responded to market price signals by expanding, and then stabilising, rapeseed area.
In India, producers have not responded in the same way. Indian rapeseed area has not expanded, despite high prices.
The Indian solution is to import vegetable oil, even though rapeseed is well suited to satisfying oil demand. An opportunity missed.
In contrast to the rest of the world today, Indian food oil demand is still booming. Indian prices are telling producers to expand.
But rapeseed area refuses to budge. The Indian rapeseed market is failing, and Indian agriculture is missing a huge opportunity.
Indian agriculture must discover why farmers are not responding to price signals. If the market can be unleashed, India will benefit.
Rapeseed:AnIndianOpportunity
33
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