Increasing uptime and lowering LCOE through strategic planning

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q   This webinar will be available afterwards atwww.windpowerengineering.com & email

q   Q&A at the end of the presentation

q   Hashtag for this webinar: #WindWebinar

Before We Start

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http://www.windpowerengineering.com/

Introducing the Featured Speakers

Aaron SoellingerData Scientist, DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

[email protected]+1 716.364.1442

Edward WagnerChief Digital Officer


Dr. Raja V. Pulikollu VP, Implementations & Chief Materials Scientist

[email protected]

+1 937.241.1144

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mailto:[email protected]




A Little About Sentient Science

What Has Sentient Been Doing with Suppliers?

What’s New – DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

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Buy on Life® and Establishing New Supply/Demand Chains

Agenda

Sentient Science’s Webinar Series

We want to hear from you!

Request a Free Demo of DigitalClone®

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Uniquely Built with OperatorsTrusted 3rd Party

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DigitalClone® is a “Small Data” Approach to Determine Component & System Failure Rates

➡  When bearings enter failure, it happens very fast, minutes, hours, days.➡  That fast failure causes failure in other expensive components.➡  Save the bearing and you get life extension and a larger payback than Big Data.

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Operators & Suppliers will know the earliest point in time when critical components will begin to fail & have options to extend life

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This Means You Now Have Much More Information on Asset Life, Life Extension, Financial Impact

Earliest Failure Reporting and Actions18 month Rolling

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O&M Forecasting

Known Component Failure

CBMOptimization

Accurate Financial Planning

RiskManagement

We Are Being Recognized

2001-2016$25M in R&D

FundingFrom the world’s

largest operator of heavy equipment

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2010NASA Validation

Of the game changing technology,

DigitalClone®

2014Tibbett's Award

White House honors DigitalClone®

technology – “decoding the Material Genome”

April 2016New Energy Pioneer Award Michael Bloomberg honors the commercial impact of

DigitalClone®

technology in Sentient’s 1st

Clean Energy market

Sentient Science FamilyWorlds Most

Tested ProductsProducts with the

Lowest Cost of Operation

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1.  DigitalClone®

•  Materials-Based Computational Testing (SaaS)

2.  DigitalClone® Live for Operators•  For Operational Management (Visibility 1)•  For Asset Management (Visibility 2)•  For Risk Management (Visibility 3)

3.  DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers•  Interface Suppliers with Operators#WindWebinar

Our 3 Life Extension Services

Who’s in the Audience Today

•  Operators•  Suppliers (components, lubrications, gearboxes)•  Services

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Poll Question #1

DigitalClone® Live for Operators

Site 1

Site 2Site 3Site 4

Site 5Site 6Site 7Site 8

Fleet 1

Fleet health based on small data from material science

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Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking

Fleet 1Site 1

Site 2

Assets ranked by their Mean Time to Observable Damage (MTOD)

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Individual Components Worst to Best Ranking

Components ranked by their Mean Time to Observable Damage (MTOD)

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1.  Ranking Fleet-wide GBX (and other) assets worst to best (“what’s not on your watch list?”)

2.  List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement

3.  List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI

4.  Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX

5.  Per Asset GBX “as-is” BOM and “to-be” simulated BOM stored in EDM/ERP

6.  5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend per asset and per site

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Primary Reports on Fleet Health

Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, partial de-rating, surface treatment, etc.

Prognostics allows you to quantify “what-if” scenarios to extend RUL.

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Years Until Gearbox Failure“To Be”

Years Until Gearbox Failure“As Is”

Case Study:Bearing Performance Comparison for Wind Turbine

Gearbox

DigitalClone® Live Provides Operators with Forecasts for Component Replacement Over 4 Years

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Customer XXXXTurbine GE 1.5

Total Units XXXXYear IM/HS Replacements Planetary Replacements % of Replacements2016 60 24 3.12017 75 30 3.82018 85 34 4.32019 98 39.2 5.0Total 318 127.2 16.2

Turbine GE 1.5

Total Units XXXXYear GBX Replacements % of GBX Failures

2016 100 3.6

2017 110 4.0

2018 115 4.2

2019 121 4.4

Total 446

This is what we are looking to buy from the supplier community

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•  Sentient introduces a new service to match supply with demand based on lifing assessments within the DigitalClone® Operator Network

•  Operators must approve of any information made available to the supplier community

•  This begins a new Partnering Program for Suppliers who want to work with Sentient Science

•  DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers allows operators to Buy on Life® not just price from their suppliers

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DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

Poll Question #2

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What is your Big Challenge?

1.  Evaluating new market investments, weighing the costs to develop capabilities

2.  Finding timely new leads for business

3.  Obtaining the information necessary to fulfill repairs in a timely manner

4.  Managing inventory levels for spare parts and spare assets to guaranteelong term availability commitments

Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

Filters

Opportunities

Location

Names & Detail

Immediate Need

Long Term Need

Payoff Projections

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Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers

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Transactions Between Suppliers and Operators

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Targeted Messaging for an Initial Offer

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Bundle Tasks for Initial Offer

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Find “My Opportunities”

GE 1.5 MW➡  Critical Bearings Repaired Uptower

➡  High Speed Shaft➡  Intermediate Shaft

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What Opportunities Exist?

Find Sales Opportunities for Your Offering

•  Sentient has recommended 44 Uptower Repair on the GE 1.5 SLE for High Speed Shaft bearings

•  Based on material- science prognostics, all of the components are within the optimal timing window for service

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Life Extension & MarketingUtilizing Life Extension

Case #1: Prepare Proposal

Most likely strategy:1-3 Bearing Uptower Repair to offset cost of gearbox replacement contingent

upon physical inspection

Potential life extension is realized if…•  Bearing replacement projected to add 110 months•  Justifiable total repair price up to 9 years x 4000 mWh x $70 (avg. PPA price)•  Suggests there is a large price tunnel for negotiation

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Operators and Suppliers View Payoffs

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Analyze the Individual Opportunities

•  Prospective Customer Name•  Type of Opportunity (Uptower Repair or Gearbox Replacement)•  Location of Opportunity•  Turbine and Gearbox Technology•  Most Severely Damaged Component Manufacturer and Model•  Number of Components Expected to be Damaged•  Current Months Past Crack Initiation (t – 6.0 months)•  Estimated Life Extension in Months•  Date the Repair was First Required

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Download the Opportunities List

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1. For Lead Generation - Suppliers have a prioritized lead list from DigitalClone Live of assets, components, lubricants etc.. that are needed to extend the life of operator assets–  to match supply with demand and–  to lower supplier cost of sales

2. To Buy on Life® - Suppliers have a trusted 3rd party in Sentient Science to advocate their life claims within the context of the customers’ gearbox

3. For Sales Forecasting - Suppliers can investigate longer term opportunities knowing current market share, and what, when and how failures will occur (18 mo window)

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DigitalClone ® Live for Suppliers

For Operators:1.  Increasing Uptime & Lowering LCOE for the Operators Through

Strategic Planning

For Suppliers:1.  Evaluating new market investments, weighing the costs to develop

capabilities2.  Finding timely new leads for business3.  Obtaining the information necessary to fulfill repairs in a timely manner

4.  Managing inventory levels for spare parts and spare assets toguarantee long term availability commitments

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Why DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers?

Questions?

Aaron SoellingerData Scientist, DigitalClone® Live for Suppliers


Edward WagnerChief Digital Officer


Dr. Raja V. Pulikollu VP, Implementations & Chief Materials Scientist

[email protected]

+1 937.241.1144

#WindWebinar





q   This webinar will be available atwww.windpowerengineering.com & email

q   Tweet with hashtag #WindWebinar

q   Connect with Windpower Engineering & Development

q   Discuss this on EngineeringExchange.com

Don’t Forget!

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Increasing uptime and lowering LCOE through strategic planning

Engineering

Transcript of Increasing uptime and lowering LCOE through strategic planning