Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne

Inaugural lecture upon taking up the position as Special Professor of mitigation of greenhouse gases at Wageningen University on 1 September 2016

Niklas.Hoehne@wur.nlN.Hoehne@newclimate.org

Secret climate report:We have only 13 years ... to save the world!

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Greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced to limit global temperature increase

See also: Joeri Rogelj, Julia Nabel, Claudine Chen, William Hare, Kathleen Markmann, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Kirsten Macey, Niklas Höhne 2010: Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Nature, Vol 464, p. 1126-1128

Delay means earlier phase out

Delay means earlier phase out

Delay means earlier phase out

Delay means earlier phase out

With delay:Earlier phase outNegative emissions

Global

1,5/2°C: Limit temperature increase to „well below 2°C“ and “pursue efforts” to limit it below 1.5°C

Phase out of greenhouse gas emissions: Global greenhouse gas emissions should reach net zero in the second half of the century

National

National contributions: All countries submit national contributions on how much to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (INDCs)

Raising ambition: Contributions will be revised, renewed and extended until longterm goal is met

Paris Agreement is a landmark

How could an international agreement on climate change help?

What are national governments doing?

What are other actors doing?

What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?

Content

How could an international agreement on climate change help? • Allocation of emission allowances to countries

What are national governments doing?

What are other actors doing?

What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?

Content

How to share the reduction effort?

Joeri Rogelj, Julia Nabel, Claudine Chen, William Hare, Kathleen Markmann, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Kirsten Macey, Niklas Höhne 2010: Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Nature Vol 464, p. 1126-1128

Determining future GHG emission reduction targets

Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.

Research report of 2005

Höhne, N., Phylipsen, D., Ullrich, S., Blok, K., 2005. Options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Prepared by Ecofys for the German Federal Environmental Agency, Climate Change 02/05. http://www.umweltbundesamt.org/fpdf-l/2847.pdfAlso used in Höhne, N., 2005. What is next after the Kyoto Protocol? Assessment of options for international climate policy post 2012. PhD thesis, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. ISBN 90-739-5893-8, Revised version published in 2006 at Techne Press, Amsterdam as ISBN 90-8594-005-2, http://www.technepress.nl/publications.php?id=13

Necessary reductions presented in IPCC report 2007 influenced national target setting

Table explained in• den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2008. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting

concentration stabilisation targets. An editorial comment. Climatic Change, 91, 249–274.• den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C. Climate Policy, 10, 247–260.

EU: -80% to -95%Germany: -80% to -95%USA: -80%

Japan: -25% (repealed)Norway: -40% (conditional)NL: court case

Current policy below the norm • …Based on the State’s current policy, the Netherlands will achieve a

reduction of 17% at most in 2020, which is below the norm of 25% to

40% for developed countries deemed necessary in climate science and

international climate policy. State must provide protection • The State must do more to avert the imminent danger caused by

climate change, also in view of its duty of care to protect and improve

the living environment. … • … the court should exercise restraint and has limited therefore the

reduction order to 25%, the lower limit of the 25%-40% norm.

Dutch court ruling of June 2015

Source: http://uitspraken.rechtspraak.nl/inziendocument?id=ECLI:NL:RBDHA:2015:7196

Determining future GHG emission reduction targets

Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.

Suggested targets in 2030 compatible with 2°C

Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.28. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.

Suggested targets in 2050

Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.29. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.

-80% to -95% for 2°C

-90% to -100% for 1.5°C

How could an international agreement on climate change help?

What are national governments doing?

What are other actors doing?

What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?

Content

Global

1,5/2°C: Limit temperature increase to „well below 2°C“ and “pursue efforts” to limit it below 1.5°C

Phase out of greenhouse gas emissions: Global greenhouse gas emissions should reach net zero in the second half of the century

National

National contributions: All countries submit national contributions on how much to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (INDCs)

Raising ambition: Contributions will be revised, renewed and extended until longterm goal is met

Paris Agreement is a landmark

2020: 17% below 2005

2025: 26% to 28% below 2005

USA

See also: Roelfsema, M., Elzen, M. D., Höhne, N., Hof, A. F., Braun, N., Fekete, H., ... & Larkin, J. (2013). Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies. Energy Policy.

20% below 1990 in 202030% below 1990 in 2020 with ambitious international treatyAt least 40% below 1990 in 2030

EU

2020: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005, 15% non-fossil energy, afforestation2030: target to peak CO2 emissions in 2030 at the latest, CO2/GDP by 60% to 65% below 2005, 20% non-fossil energy, afforestation

China

See also: den Elzen, M., Fekete, H., Höhne, N., Admiraal, A., Forsell, N., Hof, A. F., … van Soest, H. (2016). Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030? Energy Policy, 89, 224–236. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.030

Effect of “Intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs)

Source: Climate Action Tracker update, 8 December 2015http://climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-action.html

Effect of “intended nationally determined contributions“ (INDCs)

Source: Joeri Rogelj, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Taryn Fransen, Hanna Fekete, Harald Winkler, Roberto Schaeffer, Fu Sha, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen 2016: Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 C, Nature 534, 631–639

Source: Dubash, N. K., Hagemann, M., Höhne, N., & Upadhyaya, P. (2013). Developments in national climate change mitigation legislation and strategy. Climate Policy, 13(6), 649-664

2/3 of emissions covered by national climate policy

Further developed in • Bulder, K.J., 2013. Climate

Policies in the Top 50 Greenhouse Gas Emitting Countries. Policy Drivers and the Climate Policy Development Index. Master thesis, Wageningen.

Climate legislation

Climate strategy

None of the above

No data

Policy database and initial analysis report

Coverage of climate policy varies

www.climatepolicydatabase.org http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies/

Supported by the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment

• G. Iacobuta 2016: Good practice policies for climate change mitigation, master thesis, Wageningen.

• Ongoing PhD of G. Iacobuta through CD-links project led by IIASA

How many countries apply good practice policies?

Coverage of policy areas by the 30 largest emitters

Source: http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies

Policy coverage in Japan

Example of policy coverage

Source: http://www.climatepolicydatabase.orghttp://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies

Close to 2°C, if all countries would do what many do already

Source: Fekete, Roelfsema, Höhne, den Elzen, Forsell, Becerra 2015: Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions, https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/task2c_goodpracticeanalysis_july_2015.pdf

Reductions if all countries would apply best practice policies in selected areas

How could an international agreement on climate change help?

What are national governments doing?

What are other actors doing?

What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?

Content

Commitments by actors other than national governments are increasing

Source: Hsu et al. 2016, http://www.nature.com/news/track-climate-pledges-of-cities-and-companies-1.19764

Business determined contributions

Source: Höhne, Kuramochi, Sterl, Gonzales-Zuniga 2016: the business end of climate change, https://newclimate.org/2016/06/28/the-business-end-of-climate-change/

Impact of initiatives on global GHG emissions

Current policy

INDCs

With initiatives

2°C

Source: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuniga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/

Impact of initiatives on global GHG emissions

Current policy

INDCs

With initiatives

2°C

9 GtCO2e

If the initiatives reach their goalsAnd if this does not replace ambition elsewhere

Source: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuniga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/

How could an international agreement on climate change help?

What are national governments doing?

What are other actors doing?

What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?

Content

Implement and overachieve national climate proposals - build on the positive experiences with INDC planning for the Paris Agreement, apply good practiceSupport leading non-state actors and capture their efforts in national ambitionInduce faster-than-expected transformations by new ‘transformative coalitions’: groups of countries and stakeholders with critical mass to flip global markets by deploying one specific technology at a large scale.

What is needed to keep “well below 2°C” and “working towards 1.5°C” within reach?

Source: Höhne et al. (forthcoming): The Paris Agreement: resolving the inconsistency between global goals and national contributions, Climate Policy

Small coalitions induce technological breakthrough

Source: Cronin, C., Menon, S., Monteith, S., Plechaty, D., Hagemann, M., Höhne, N., … Sferra, F. (2015). Faster and Cleaner - Decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors is surpassing predictions and offering hope for limiting warming to 2°C. https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/faster-cleaner-decarbonization-in-the-power-transport-sectors.pdf

Example: wind and solar electricity Example: electric cars

• Norway: today 20% of new registrations are electric cars

• Norway and Netherlands: goal of 100% of new registrations are electric by 2025

• China and USA: significant support for electric vehicles

• Needed for 1.5°C: last gasoline/diesel car sold in 2025 to 2035

Source: Sterl et al. 2016: The road ahead: How do we move to cleaner car fleets? CAT Decarbonisation Series, www.climateactiontracker.org

How could an international agreement on climate change help? • Allocation of emission allowances to countries

What are national governments doing?• Countries’ international contributions are not yet sufficient to keep

temperature increase below 2°C• Close to 2°C if all countries would do what many do already

What are other actors doing? • Actions by other actors are increasingly relevant• Size of their contribution is under-researched

What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?• Implement and overachieve national climate proposals• Support leading non-state actors and capture their efforts in national

ambition• Induce faster-than-expected transformations by new ‘transformative

coalitions’

Limiting climate change to well below 2°C or 1.5°C

Word of thanks