IMUA Annual Meeting 2017 · 7 Likely Optimal Range 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55...
Transcript of IMUA Annual Meeting 2017 · 7 Likely Optimal Range 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55...
IMUA Annual Meeting 2017
• Industry update
• Proactive safety management
• Pharmaceutical transportation methodology
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Trucking’s role in the economy
4Source: Stiefel research
Trucking dominates freight market
5Source: NPR, 2014 Census Bureau
Most common job by state
“Truck driver” 29 states!
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Truckload loads
6.2%
0.9%
2.6%
1.1%
0.1%
1.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Avg 1995-1999 Avg 2000 - 2007 Avg 2010 - 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: ATA
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Likely Optimal Range
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
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1.45
1.50
1.55
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Total business inventory-to-sales ratio
Source: Census Bureau (Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not price changes)
• Interest rates rising• Leaner inventories = tighter
transportation market
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40%
50%
60%
70%
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199
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Services as share of personal consumption expenditures
Sources: Census & ATA
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6.2%
0.9%
2.6%
1.1%
0.1%
1.7%
4.3%
2.6%2.1%
2.6%
1.6%2.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Avg 1995-1999 Avg 2000 - 2007 Avg 2010 - 2014 2015 2016 2017
TL Loads Real GDP
Growth in truckload loadsvs. real GDP
Source: ATA
It is now difficult for loads to grow as fast as GDP:• Miniaturization of freight (products and packaging)• Services are a growing part of our economy, and we
don’t put services in trailers• We are buying more “experiences”, which generate
less freight
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Dry Van average length of haulis down
0
100
200
300
400
500
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• Shipper/3PL network density• Carrier regional operations796 miles
533 miles
-33%
Electronic logging device mandate• Deadline December 2017
• Display engine hours, GPS location
• Changes are viewable
• Manager manipulation to extend hours = “driver harassment”, $11k company fine
Source: ATA, public company information11
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1. Truckstop.com survey of 1,300 carriers, with vast majority operating fewer than 6 trucks, 84% had no ELDs on any trucks. Likely fewer than 40% of trucks have ELDs.
2. TL fleets that have already adopted are generally larger and more sophisticated than most of those that haven’t. So, productivity impact could be larger than fleets have seen so far.
3. What if just 1% to 3% of drivers leave the market for a host of reasons, including cheaters, anti-technology, anti-big government, or just don’t want to change?
4. Some carriers are likely to exit the industry.
5. Enforcement comes from law enforcement, insurance carriers, shippers, & brokers
Impact of ELDs
How should we fund infrastructure?
Source: ATA, TRB
• Public Private Partnership as panacea?
− Toll road bankruptcies
− Chicago’s 75 year, $1.2B parking meter deal was spent in 2 years
− Terms are critical
• Tolls: 33% administration costs
• Route diversion, $ diversion (NYST)
• Fuel tax: 1% administration costs
• Last federal tax increase 1993
• Fuel efficiency, millennial habits
• Vehicle Miles Traveled?
• Political implications
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Taxes & Fees Tractor Trailer
Federal Excise Tax $16,488 $5,895
State Sales Tax $10,000 $3,406
State Excise Tax $3,625 $1,362
Registration fees IRP $1,496 $300
Title Fee $75 $75
Federal 2290 $550
UCR Federal $41
Federal Diesel Fuel Tax Annual $6,100
State Diesel Fuel Tax Annual $6,000
Total Yr 1 Taxes & Fees for a Tractor-Trailer $55,413
(assumes 150,000 miles)
Truckers – doing our part First year ownership taxes & fees
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“Nuclear verdicts” have caused trucking insurance market upheaval
Source: WSJ
• AIG’s Lexington unit, Zurich stopped underwriting for-hire fleets
• Premiums up 44% in 2 years
• Mandated insurance same as 1983
• Tort reform, anyone?
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• Industry update
• Proactive safety management
• Pharmaceutical transportation methodology
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Behavioral economics –are incentives aligned?
Virtuous Circle
Employer
15% turnover vs. industry average 100% Superior safety & security Greater reliability & expertise “Patriotic Employer” award from DoD
Strict qualifications & training Guaranteed wages & benefits Actively recruit military veterans Align incentives with customer
Results
Practices
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Radar systemAutomating emergency brakingAdaptive cruise
Sensors help prevent rollovers
Video camera enhances visibility and eliminates “blind spot”
Lane readers alert driver of drifting
Ensure hours of service compliance and stay ahead of regulatory mandates
Safety technology – increased integration / adoptionCollision avoidance system
Roll stabilitycontrol
Side-angle camera
Lane departure warning
Electronic logs
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• Events trigger wireless transmission
• Continuous improvement, coaching
• Exoneration from fraudulent claims
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Video-based safety management
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Autonomous Systems ≠ “Driverless”
Source: SAE International, Videantis
SAE levels of driving automation
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Trucking automation – job killer or creator?
2025AD, ATA
Creator
Killer
• Assumes SAE level 3/4• Technology will assist drivers, not replace them• Attract millennials• Analogy to auto-pilot (still have pilots)• “Driverless” in limited applications (private property, ports)
• Assumes SAE level 5• Economic case too compelling• 3.5 million truck drivers displaced to low wage service jobs• Derivative effects on diners, motels, gear, insurance, etc. • See: manufacturing• Ready the pitchforks
Top behaviors reported in fatal auto & motorcycle crashes
Behavior Share of crashes in which behavior was reported
Driving too fast for conditions, speeding, or racing
Under the influence of alcohol, drugs, or medication
Failure to keep in proper lane
Failure to yield right of way
Distracted (phone, talking, eating, etc.)
Driving in a careless manner
Overcorrecting / over-steering
Failure to obey traffic signs, signals, or officers
Driving in an erratic, reckless, or negligent manner
Swerving or avoiding*
2014 data. No more than one behavior may be present for the same driver/operatorNational Highway Traffic Safety Administration via The Insurance Information Institute
Note:Source:
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Human behavior accounts for most crash risk . . .
18.8%
12.3%
8.5%
6.9%
6.7%
4.8%
4.1%
4.0%
3.5%
3.4%
Private passenger auto33.8%
Commercial auto5.3%
Homeowners/farm owners15.8%
Various business insurance and specialty coverage45.1%
$199.95 billion
. . . therefore, human behavior likely accounts for much insurance industry premium
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U.S. property-casualty insurance premium, 2015
National Association of Insurance Commissioners; S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute
Source:
Source: WSJ29
…will underwriters be insuring drivers or computer code?How does reduced risk affect total industry premium?
So when technology reduces human error . . .
• Industry update
• Proactive safety management
• Pharmaceutical transportation methodology
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Supply chain participants should ensure
“Supply chain integrity”and
“Good Distribution Practices”
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Regulatory guidance
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Carrier obligations• Quality management system
• Root cause analyses, corrective action
• Investigate temperature excursions
• Extensive documentation of protocols
• Annual audits by shippers
Supply chain integrity Real assets
In-transitvisibility
Personnel
On-roadprotocols
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• Company fleet and professional drivers teams• No brokering or independent contractors
• 5 minute GPS updates (most carriers → hourly)• Tractor & trailer tracking with door sensors• Wired & wireless emergency buttons• Company-issued smart phones• Geo-fenced route monitoring• 24/7 Ops Center support
• Extensive background checks• Security awareness training• Closed loop of those who “need to know”
• Constant surveillance & attendance• Expedited, exclusive use service• Robust locks & seals• Limited stops/layovers
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Calibrate sensors regularly
Reference thermometer
Interior sensors
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• 30 data loggers placed in trailer
• Temp unit run for 24 hr period
• Data downloaded, analyzed
• 30 page study & report
• Proves thermal efficiency is equally distributed
Thermometer locations
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8 109
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1
2 ft
16 ft
16 ft
16 ft
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Thermal mapping, validation
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• Paper receipt• Passive recorder• Retention depends on
dockworker• Paper jams
• Downloadable by consignee• Passive recorder• Must be programmed• Excursion info too late• Complicated handling
Onboard Printer Data Logger Real Time Monitoring
• Redundant monitoring (in-cab & 24/7 Ops Center)
• Real time excursion alerts• Instantly viewable on web by
authorized parties• Downloadable to PDF
In-transit temperature monitoring
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24/7 staffing and exception management
• Late ETA
• Route geo-fence
• Temp out of range
• Temp not reporting
• Position not updating
• Trailer doors open
• Trailer disconnect
Proactive alerts
Customer access to information
See your shipments move in real time and run reports!Convert reports to Excel and PDF.
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Shipment temperature history
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• Tracking redundancy• Scheduling• Image capture BOL• Increased
automation
GPS-enabled smartphones & proprietary APP
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Thank you