Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological Prediction Including...
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![Page 1: Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological Prediction Including Groundwater Mickael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Youlong Xia, Jesse.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649dc85503460f94abe19c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological
Prediction Including Groundwater
Mickael Ek, Rongqian Yang,
Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, and Jiarui Dong
NOAA/NCEP/EMC
Drought Task Force Telecon, 25 Feb 2014
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Contributors to Drought
• Land and Sea Surface Temperature.• Atmospheric Circulation Patterns.• Soil Moisture (land surface modeling).
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Land Surface Modeling • Exchange processes with the
atmosphereo Momentumo Energy (reflected
shortwave, emitted longwave, latent/sensible heat)
o Water (precipitation, evapotranspiration)
o Trace gases (CO2, CH4, N2O etc)
• Land-memory processeso Vegetation phenologyo Snow/ice covero Soil moistureo Groundwater
Intraseasonal to Interannual
Variability
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. A combined surface layer of vegetation canopy and ground. Such a layer structure impedes further developments on dynamic vegetation model. • A bulk layer of snow and soil. The
ground heat flux can not be accurately resolved for a thick snowpack.
• Too shallow soil column (2-
meter deep) and free drainage at the soil bottom. Groundwater effects are neglected.
• Too impervious frozen soil; too strong
runoff peaks in cold regions. • Neglect of the effects of zero-
displacement height (d0) on CH; thus a smaller CH over forest regions.
Limitations in Noah LSM
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Noah-MP
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Noah-MP is an extended version of the Noah LSM with enhanced Multi-Physics options to address critical shortcomings in Noah
• Canopy radiative transfer with shading geometry
• Separate vegetation canopy• Dynamic vegetation• Ball-Berry canopy resistance • Multi-layer snowpack• Snowpack liquid water retention• Ground water/Interaction with aquifer• Snow albedo treatment• New frozen soil scheme• New snow cover
shaded fraction
What is Noah-MP?
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Noah-MP is an extended version of the Noah LSM with enhanced Multi-Physics options to address critical shortcomings in Noah
• Canopy radiative transfer with shading geometry
• Separate vegetation canopy• Dynamic vegetation• Ball-Berry canopy resistance • Multi-layer snowpack• Snowpack liquid water retention• Ground water/Interaction with aquifer• Snow albedo treatment• New frozen soil scheme• New snow cover
What is Noah-MP?
![Page 8: Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological Prediction Including Groundwater Mickael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Youlong Xia, Jesse.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649dc85503460f94abe19c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
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4-layer soil
3-layer snow
What is Noah-MP?Noah-MP is an extended version of
the Noah LSM with enhanced Multi-Physics options to address critical shortcomings in Noah
• Canopy radiative transfer with shading geometry
• Separate vegetation canopy• Dynamic vegetation• Ball-Berry canopy resistance • Multi-layer snowpack• Snowpack liquid water retention• Ground water/Interaction with aquifer• Snow albedo treatment• New frozen soil scheme• New snow cover
![Page 9: Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological Prediction Including Groundwater Mickael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Youlong Xia, Jesse.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649dc85503460f94abe19c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
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What is Noah-MP?Noah-MP is an extended version of
the Noah LSM with enhanced Multi-Physics options to address critical shortcomings in Noah
• Canopy radiative transfer with shading geometry
• Separate vegetation canopy• Dynamic vegetation• Ball-Berry canopy resistance • Multi-layer snowpack• Snowpack liquid water retention• Groundwater Interaction with aquifer• Snow albedo treatment• New frozen soil scheme• New snow cover
![Page 10: Improved Land Modeling for Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Hydrological Prediction Including Groundwater Mickael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Youlong Xia, Jesse.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649dc85503460f94abe19c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
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Water Table Depth
Looks similar to terrain, 2 m are too shallowCourtesy of Mike Barlage
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Noah-MP contains several options for land surface processes:
1. Dynamic vegetation/vegetation coverage (4 options – default: off)
2. Canopy stomatal resistance (2 options – default: Ball-Berry)3. Canopy radiation geometry (3 options – default: shadows –
f(sun))4. Soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance (3 options – default:
Noah)5. Runoff and groundwater (4 options – default: TOPMODEL)6. Surface layer exchange coefficients (4 options – default: MP M-
O)7. Supercooled soil liquid water/ice fraction (2 options – default:
no iter)8. Frozen soil permeability options (2 options – default: linear
effects)9. Snow surface albedo (2 options – default: CLASS)10. Rain/snow partitioning (3 options – default: Jordan f(T) )11. Lower soil boundary condition (2 options – default: fixed bottom
T)12. Snow/soil diffusion solution (2 options – default: flux boundary)
Total of ~50,000 combination can be used as multi-physics ensemble members
Ensemble surface Physics with Noah-MP
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Comparisons of Noah-MP Simulation with Satellite LAI and GVF
Yang et al. (2011)
LAI Greenness Vegetation Fraction
Model
Satellite
Offline SimulationVery good agreement in global average
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Comparison of Noah-MP Water Storage Change with GRACE
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Total Water Storage, with ground water an important component)
Niu et al. (2011)Yang et al. (2011)
Offline Simulation
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What Noah-MP can be used for?• Facilitate physically-
based ensemble climate predictions (incl. drought).
• Identify optimal combinations of parameterization schemes.
• Identify critical processes controlling the land-atmosphere coupling strength.
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Application in CFS Experiments
Design and Configurations Cntrl CFS (Noah 2.7) Ops GFS + Noah 2.7 with old ssib veg + zobler soil
Exp CFS (Noah MP) Ops GFS + Noah MP with new modis veg + statsgo soil
1. Use 4 ensemble members with Initial Conditions from 00z of May 1-4 over2. Selected 11 years:82,86,87,88,91,96,99,00,07,11,12 (MJJ, Ňino 3.4) 3. Including warm, cold and neutral ENSO indices
Coupled warm-season prediction
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CFS JJA Precipitation ACC Skill
Noah MP
Noah 2.7
Noah MP performs better
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (centered)
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Soil Moisture Climatology
Noah MP
Noah 2.7
(layer 4; 11 yrs.) Averaged over July + August
Noah MP with ground water wetter
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Latent Heat Climatology
CFSR(31 Yrs)
Noah 2.7 (11 Yrs)
Noah MP (11 Yrs)
NARR(31 Yrs)
Averaged over July + August
Noah MP predicts the similar LH gradient/patterns shown in the reanalyses
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Summer Precipitation Anomaly (2011 Texas Drought)
July
August
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Precipitation Comparison (2011) July August
Noah 2.7
Noah MP
Obs
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Summer T2m Comparison (2011) July August Noah 2.7
Noah MP
Obs
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Summary/Future Plan
• Enhanced Noah land model: Noah MP with ground water, improved vegetation phenology, and snowpack improves CFS precipitation performance, which is important to drought prediction.
• The Multi-Parameterization (MP) framework allows for multi-hypothesis testing and understanding of parameterization interaction.
• New ICs needed (GLDAS, especially ground water).• Add river routing . • Assimilate GRACE data into Noah-MP to improve NLDAS and
USDM drought monitoring task.