IMEMO extract of slides presented (complete pack available ......NEW Total 2024 2030 2034 2030 2023...
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IMEMO – extract of slides presented (complete pack available for clients at Rystad Energy client login page) November 5th 2019 Jarand Rystad Rystad Energy
Transcript of IMEMO extract of slides presented (complete pack available ......NEW Total 2024 2030 2034 2030 2023...
IMEMO – extract of slides presented (complete pack available for clients at Rystad Energy client login page)
November 5th 2019
Jarand RystadRystad Energy
Content
The energy transition – how fast, and consequences for oil and gas?
• Why energy transition – is climate change the only driver?
• Scenarios for peak oil demand and consequences for activity in the oil sector
• Energy systems of the future – role of natural methane, ammonia and hydrogen as energy storage
2
Content
The energy transition – how fast, and consequences for oil and gas?
• Why energy transition – is climate change the only driver?
• Scenarios for peak oil demand and consequences for activity in the oil sector
• Energy systems of the future – role of natural methane, ammonia and hydrogen as energy storage
3
Why energy transition – is climate change the only driver?
Climate change
4
Local environment
Generation technologies Consumption technologies
Energy sector’s relative value at a historic low, despite relatively strong oil price
Source: Bloomberg
5
1100 investment funds has sold out of fossile energy for USD 11 trillion
6
Energy financing to change; Shale - a step on the road
7
The offshore megaproject era
1970 – 2015
Large projects, bespoke
USD 1 – 10 billion
80% - 85% equity
15% - 20% debt
Finance by oil companies
Subsurface risk, project risks,
market risks, upside potential risks
The shale oil and gas era
2015 – 2035
Well by well, industrialized farming
USD 5 – 50 million
30% – 50% equity
50% - 70% debt
Finance by PE and funds + operational
cash + asset sales
Less subsurface risks, project risks and
market risks, production can be hedged
The renewables era
2035 – 2100
Plant by plant, manufactirung
USD 10 million – 10 billion
5% – 15% equity
85% - 95% debt
Finance by pension funds and banks
primarily
Often governmentall guaranteed sales
contracts and limited project risks
18
60
90
Offshore Shale Renewables
Typicall share of debt for energy projects
Percent
Content
The energy transition – how fast, and consequences for oil and gas?
• Why energy transition – is climate change the only driver?
• Scenarios for peak oil demand and consequences for activity in the oil sector
• Energy systems of the future – role of natural methane, ammonia and hydrogen as energy storage
8
More than half
of oil demand is transportation
26 %
18 %
6 %6 %
12 %
6 %
8 %
6 %
12 %
Oil
consumption
by sector
Passenger Transportation (26%)
Light duty vehicles (23%) and buses (3%)
Long term threat:
Growth in electric vehicles and buses
Road Freight
Light and Heavy Trucks 18%
Long term threat:
Natural gas and electric fuel
Aviation 6%
Long term threat:
Biofuel and electricity
Maritime 6%
Long term threat:
LNG and Hydrogen.
Petrochemicals 12%
Long term threat:
None. Likely to keep growing
Steam and Process 6%
Long term threat:
Slowing economic growth and
electricity and biofuel.
Buildings 8%
Long term threat:
Energy efficiency and better
insulation.
Power generation 6%
Long term threat:
Gas and solar as substitutes.
Other (Agriculture, lubricants, etc.) 12%
Long term threat:
Electricity, energy efficiency, etc.
More than half of oil demand is driven by transportation
Source: IEA
9
Current oil consumption by sector
Sectorial oil demand showcases peak oil demand in 2028 at 106 MMbpd
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
1202
01
0
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
203
3
20
34
20
35
203
6
20
37
20
38
203
9
20
40
20
41
204
2
20
43
20
44
20
45
20
46
20
47
20
48
20
49
20
50
LDVs
Trucks
Petrochems
Buildings
Steam and process
Power
Buses
Aviation
Maritime
Other
NEW Total
2024
2030
2034
2030
2023
2042
Peak oil demand
Global oil consumption
Million barrels oe per day all liquids
Content
The energy transition – how fast, and consequences for oil and gas?
• Why energy transition – is climate change the only driver?
• Scenarios for peak oil demand and consequences for activity in the oil sector
• Energy systems of the future – role of natural methane, ammonia and hydrogen as energy storage
11
Power production versus consumption in Germany 2016 – 2019 (Oct)
12
Imagine 2050 with 100% solar + wind; How to balance the system in January?
Source: Rystad Energy
13
-
30
60
90
120
1500 7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98
105
112
119
126
133
140
147
154
161 0 7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98
105
112
119
126
133
140
147
154
161
Consumption direct Consumption from storage To storage
Week 1, January Week 2 , January
Produce chemical
energy
• H2
• CH4
• NH3
Build storage
• Battery: 40 mill EVs: 1
TWh (1000x vs today)
• Water pumping: 0.6 TWh
(10x vs today)
• Compressed air energy
storage 0.1 TWh (5x vs
today)
Export
power
Power supply and demand
GW
Imagine 2050 with 100% solar + wind; How to balance the system in January?
14
-
30
60
90
120
1500 7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98
105
112
119
126
133
140
147
154
161 0 7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98
105
112
119
126
133
140
147
154
161
Consumption direct Consumption from storage To storage
Week 1, January Week 2 , January
Adjust consumption;
• Industrial shut-in
• Reduce hot water,
charging and
machinery
Restart fossile
power plants
• Gas
• Coal
(For a few days
now and then)
Import power
• Weather systems
some 1000 km.. Go
beyond that
Home storage
and biofuel
(Wood,
batteries, etc.)
Back-up
power
plants
• H2
• NH3
• CH4
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Krong Pa
Capacity 49 MWAC
Developer TTC Group
EPC JGC
Completion
date
December 2018
Renewables: Space is the issue
1 GW solar PV requires 10-15 sq kmTarget 2050: 63 000 GW
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Jarand RystadCEO Rystad Energy
Oslo, Singapore, Dubai, Tokyo, Sydney, Bangalore, Moscow, London, New York,
Houston, Rio, Stavanger, Aberdeen, Ålesund
Consulting: Strategy, Benchmarking; Market research; Transaction DD, Macro
Databases: Upstream (Ucube), RigCube, OilService, Subsea, Shale wells; Shale
Economics; Global E&P, Carbon Footprint
