Brazil Nuclear Power Generation and Equipments Market Report to 2030
Brazil O&G @2030 · cavanha.com 2/1/2017 1 Brazil O&G @2030 Armando Cavanha cavanha.com 0 1. vision...
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2/1/2017 cavanha.com 1 Brazil O&G @2030 Armando Cavanha cavanha.com 0 1. vision of oil ang gas industry in Brazil @ 2030 2. 10 key challenges
Transcript of Brazil O&G @2030 · cavanha.com 2/1/2017 1 Brazil O&G @2030 Armando Cavanha cavanha.com 0 1. vision...
2/1/2017cavanha.com 1
Brazil O&G @2030
Armando Cavanhacavanha.com
0
1. vision of oil ang gas industry in Brazil @ 20302. 10 key challenges
2030
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2015
2030
Production market share
2030
B- Brazil Oil reserves2015: Proved: 13 bi bbl probable: 172 bi bbl (presalt)2030: Proved: 13 + 172 bi bbl???
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2015 2030
Oil reserves
Bid roundsToday
Intermittent
Restricted areas
Environmental licenses driven
4
2030
Environment menu
Continuous opening for business
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Factor 2:Spare parts, InventoriesPersonnel QualificationMaintenanceOperations supportEtc. for goods and services
PetrobrasPetrobras
Other O&G companies
Specialized market strength, customer diversification, partnerships, dependent on performance - who does local content is the huge supplier market
2030 - Focus on reservoirs, performance
2017 - Focus on the support of market weaknesses and being industrialization arm
Interrupted supplies processes, if one wins the others are out, no continuous competence
Other O&G companies are coming
Buffer layer, distributors, reducing times and inventories
Stronger supplier market makes more “natural” local content; many operators and many providers
2030
? ?
Becoming similar to US Gulf and UK North sea
Factor 1:Quantity of O&G operators
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U$ 6 billion?
Petrobras roles
oil industry100%
0%
RIS
K O
F TH
E A
CTI
VITY
+probabilistic/centralized + deterministic/decentralizedUpstream is Nomad, Associative,
Technological, OpportunityContracts follow Contingency,
Resilience
Downstream is Sedentary, Optimization, Chronogram, Planning
Contracts follow Redundancy, Robustness
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probabilisticvs
deterministic
2030
5 Upstream vs downstream
operator
Service providing
manufacturing
construction
Systems, equipment,
parts
ComponentsRaw
material
Machines that make
machines
Who does what?
fmc, cameron, technip, oderbretch, shulumberger, halliburton, baker...
petrobras, shell, exxon, chevron, total, repsol...
Local content commitment only in this interface? Should expand to a Industrial Policy
2030
Investor
Local content competence
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1st tier
Local content
fases
O&G companies make free choices and partnerships among them and with providers to increase competitive local content, including export for foreign fields.Should be better with tax reductions and processes simplification at risk time.
The amount of local activities incorporated at the previous phases increases taxation, jobs, etc. As a consequence, Royalties and production taxation should be reduced proportionally.
$2030
6 2/2
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Local content
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O&G companies
Exploration and reservoir delimitation
Conceptual engineering FEL1
Basic engineering FEL2
Detailing engineering
EPC – engineering procurement construction
geologygeophysics
reservoir
processes
systems
equipment
Operation of production (20 to 30 years)
“Basic Engineering”, R&D, Local Content
Engineering providers
reservoir
Syst
emic
kno
wle
dge
dom
ain
FEL 1 FEL 2 FEL 3
What market availability, technologies, suppliers an engineer working with basic engineering located in Singapore, Tokyo or Houston can see or select?Can he develop local suppliers?
selection of technologies,
systems, equipment, vendor list,
budgets, mass and energy
balances, etc.
Strong Local content depends on a consistent and competent Basic Engineering
2030
7Should be local, or in partnership with localsIts the time the company chooses tech options
Basic engineering
Long-term contracts, consortiums, central
coordination
Partnershipsvertical integration,
supplier development
Outsourcing, standardization,
catalogs,automation
Short-term contracts,substitution
consolidation
high
Marke
tplac
e com
plexit
y
highItem Criticality
logistics partnership and inspection Petrobras tubes -Vallourec
collaborative development partnership in well completion Shell-FMC
1st level 2nd level
3rd level
Procurement differencesContracting by technological and commercial partnerships balance the market and encourage local content 2030
Selected providers
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Procurement strategies
time
Total cost of ownership
Decisions taken at time zero based on future costs
2030
Normally Costs Involved
time - periods
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TCO
API RP43Berea sandstoneShaped charge
lose adherence due to lack of continuous operational research10
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proposal: huge partnerships with worldwide research centers to focus on long term operational research
Research peer to peer
