Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032
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Transcript of Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032
CMHCApril 1st, 2014
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Metamorphosis…
We have come a long way from this….
To this….
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
but…
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Smithore Dreamstime.com
We have also come to this…
Guy
GDP =GrossDepletion of the
Planet
Gross Depletion of the Planet
+ Yield - Costs= Profit
Guy
Gross Depletion of the Planet
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
And this…
The last time the world was 3C warmer
the sea-level was up to
25 metres higher
2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
We have also come to this…
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
And this…
And this…
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The power of our vision
must be stronger than
the power of our fears
“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt
"Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas
Istanbul,Turkey
So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?
What are the Valueson which we shall build our future city?
THE OLD THE NEWMoving Cars Moving PeopleIndividualism Community
The Functional City The Happy City
A Private Capitalist Economy
A Sharing Co-operative Economy
Domination over Nature
Harmony with Nature
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Eight Themes1: A New Green Economy
2: Poverty & Inequality
3: Affordable Housing
4: The Downtown Eastside
5: Transportation without Oil
6: Our Homes
7: Our Neighbourhoods
8: How Do We Get There?
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Moving from a CAPITALIST
to a
COOPERATIVEEconomy
1: The New Green Economy
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
A COOPERATIVEEconomy
Businesses flourish in harmony with other businesses, workers,
community and nature.
The Community
Economyin 2032
Neighbourhoods across Vancouver have set up Urban Village Business Networks
Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales for financial mutual support and cooperation.
Emilia Romagna, Italy• Population 4.4 million• $$$, top ten European regions• 32% self-employed• 76% work in small • Business with 4-5 workers• Italy’s 4th largest exporter• 400,000 enterprises• 15,000 cooperatives• Strong tradition of reciprocity, regional economy mutual support system, financed by a 0.4% levy on sales • High density of banks• Regional credit system with close ties to local enterprises• Lowest unemployment• Highest rate of citizen satisfaction in Italy
Emilia Romagna, Italy
There are half a million businesses and coops in the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to local inter-business organizations.
In return, they receive support with financing, training, research, development strategies and export efforts.
Vancouver Cooperatives have their own Mutual Support Network
Local Businessesare making
Wage Differentials Reduction Pledges
from 30:1 to 10:1
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Many Vancouver businesses are becoming Benefit Corporations
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Most Vancouver businesses have Women Directors on the Board
“Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance,
according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
All Vancouver businesses are incentivized to acquire
Green Business Certification
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Youth Enterprise Initiatives are flourishing
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The Local Food Economyis flourishing
www.solefoodfarms.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
There is a big New City Market and Food Hub
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
There are community gardens and micro-markets everywhere
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
All of Vancouver’s banks and credit unions have embraced
Values-Based Banking
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
A publicly-owned State Bank of BC
has been established
Creates new creditHolds public taxes and feesTargets strategic investmentsClearing bank for other banksProfits recycled, public benefit
Modeled on The Bank of North Dakota
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
WIR Inter-Business Banking gives businesses credit when they need it
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Micro-Lending is flourishing
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Many people have joined an interest-free JAK Bank
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Community Currencies are flourishing
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Time-banking is flourishing
VANCOUVER
All banks and credit unions provide Debt Circles
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
2: Poverty and Inequality
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Basic Income for allhas been established
A Basic Income is an income unconditionally guaranteed to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.livableincome.org
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
It is being financed through:
•Reallocation of pensions and unemployment benefit, social security and welfare payments•Direct taxation•Indirect taxation on consumption (GST)•The Financial Transactions Tax
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Student Debt problems have been solved
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward
The Sharing Economy is thriving
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Debt CirclesFair TaxationBasic Income Co-operativesProfit-sharing
Affordable HousingStudent Debt SolutionThe Sharing Economy
Increased Minimum WageAbility to grow your own food
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
3: Affordable Housing
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Two-storey house: $1,151,250
Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Detached bungalow: $1,052,500
Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Condo: $490,475
Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Existing City Initiatives
Vancouver Rent BankInclusionary ZoningDensity BonusingSecondary SuitesInfill DevelopmentDemolition Control
Further Initiatives…
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$•There’s a progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million
•15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies
•Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons
•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
$$ SPENDING THE MONEY $$
•Vancouver Affordable Housing Trust Fund
•There’s a Community Housing Circle in each neighbourhood which plans and builds affordable projects.
There’s a Community Land Trustwhich buys land for affordable housing
Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
In rental apartmentsthere are Tenants’ Stewardship Councils
which also have the first right of purchase
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The new funds are being used to buy out the Downtown Eastside Rooming Hotels,
and to restore or demolish and rebuild
Communal Renting has been legalized for more than five people
Communal ownership has become common
8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million= $250k each for 8 owners
Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing has become common
www.loftcube.net
There’s a special Rooftop Homes Zone
Rooftop Housingis the new cool
thing.
Micro-homes
502 Alexander StVancouver
280 sq ft
12 units, base cost $85,000 each
CMHC
There are Micro-Homes Villageson temporarily vacant land
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Claire Martin
4: The Downtown Eastside
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
1. There is Basic Income for all
Already in place in our imagined 2032:
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
1. There is Basic Income for all
2. The Bank of BC creates low-interest credit and supports local community economies, including microloans
Already in place in our imagined 2032:
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
1. There is Basic Income for all
2. The Bank of BC creates low-interest credit and supports local community economies, including microloans
3. There are many new affordable housing initiatives
Already in place in our imagined 2032:
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
4: There is funding to restore or rebuild the old rooming hotels
In addition….
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
5. There is funding to convert the old motels along Kingsway into single-room
housing coops
6. BC has adopted the Nordic model, decriminalizing prostituted women, while criminalizing pimps and johns
7: There has been a change in Canada’s prisons policy, with more restorative justice and less jail time. It costs $114,000 a year to
keep someone in jail.
8: Recreational soft drugs have been legalized. There are safe legal injection sites,
detox and treatment on demand, and recovery coaching to help ex-addicts
remain in their homes.
9: A team of “Judy’s Angels” provide one-to-one support to help people get off the street and into a home.
10: Vancouver’s Food Banks (which fed 15,000 people a day in 2014) have been transformed into Community Food Centres where people learn how to cook together, eat together, grow their own food, and join a Community Food Coop.
Hastings Street from Cordova to Main has been made car-free.
There is a green Trail of Power with a big sculpture at each intersection
that tells the story of Canada’s First Nations
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
5: Transportation
without Oil
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
How most traffic engineer see the city
How cities should be designed
Who needs to own a car,when walking is so pleasant,Cycling such fun, public transit so efficient and carsharing so easy?
20% of our trips in 2032 are on foot 40% are by bike 25% are by transit only 15% are by car or light truck
Many more people enjoy walking
Neighbourhoods have organized local Walkability Audits
www.walklive.org
MANY more people are cycling: 40% of our trips in 2032
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
All bike lanes are safe separated bike lanes
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric Bicycles are everywhere
The Copenhagen Wheel
Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Many people are using Transit= 25% of our trips
There are luxury commuter buses
There are many creative Bus Shelters, designed by community volunteers
100% Electric Buses
On-Line Recharge Electric Buses
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Cars are only being used for 15% of our trips
Vehicle owners are earningup to $300 a month
through peer-to-peer carsharing
Affordable small electric vehicles:Renault Twizy
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease
100 km = 15 kWh10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
Grid Power for EV
EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper
to run!
Top
Hiroko EV
Top
Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland
www.cargohopper.com
There is no more air pollution
And at night, because smart street lights are user-controlledand office lights are turned out, we can see the stars
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
6: Our Homes
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Every house with a south-facing
roof is a Solar House
Solar Economics in Vancouver
4 kW, 5% finance, 3% year hydro inflation
2013 2020 2032Cost per kW $4,000 $3,000 $2,0004 kW system $16,800 $12,600 $8,400Cost + $ @ 5% $29,300 $22,000 $14,700
kWh per year 4,400 4,400 4,400 25 year Income $21,900 $26,300 $61,500Profit -$7,400 +$4,300 +$46,800
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Every housewith a south-facing roof has solar hot water
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels……………………………………….
The last 10,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
The last 10,000 years
..................................................
What happens here,when we stop burning fossil fuels?
The Age of Fossil Fuels
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year, solar technology will improve
and get cheaper.
90% HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTIONIN NEW HOMES
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
16" foam insulation. 8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed U= 0.73
Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust heat transferred to incoming fresh air
Building cost only 4.3% more, repays through energy saving
Solar Heat Pumps
Air-Source Solar Heat Pumps
Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pumps
The Octopus Ice-Stickwww.octopus.tm
Air Moisture Solar Heat Pumps
Since 1991In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland,
Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.
• Saves 50-75% on heating costs• Uses air moisture, quiet air collector• Operates down to -25o C
The cross is an Ice-Stick heat pump
Ground Source Solar Heat Pumps
Ground-Source Heat
Intelligent geothermal heat extraction
geothermic.tracto-technik.com
District Heat
Insulated Pipes
Hot water at 200o C delivered to customers
25 km away only a few degrees of
heat loss.
Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Solar Thermal District Heat
800 solar hot water
panels on the garages
90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C)
Saves 5 tonnes GHG emissions per home
per year.
The Energy Centre
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
Community solar heat panels
Solar hot waterpanels
Collective solar thermal system on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com
LED Lighting
Smart Thermostats: NEST
Single ‘House-off’ Switch
Li-fi instead of Wi-fi
Electronic Art
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Legal Composting Toilets
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Rainwater Storage
Many people are growing their own food
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Boulevards are being vegetablized
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
7: Our Neighbourhoods
Bioswale captures rainwaterSEA Street, Seattle
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
SEA Street, Seattle
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
PorousPavement
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Crown Street Sustainable StreetscapeNatural Stormwater management
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Lost Creeks are being restored
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years
Streets are being re-imagined and redesigned
www.cityrepair.org
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.cityrepair.org
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Most Streets Hold an Annual Block Party
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.restreets.org
Downtown streets are being calmed and claimed
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.restreets.org
…and cultured
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Suburban streets are being calmed and claimed
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.restreets.org
Fast, dangerous streets are being slowed
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.restreets.org
Fast, boring streets are being slowed and humanized
There are many local Farmers Markets
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
All Schools are Growing Their Own Food
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com
Concrete school yards are being transformed
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey
www.greenovergrey.com
Boring buildings are being greened…
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Musee du quai Branly in Parisdesigned by Patrick Blanc Le Mur Vegetal
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Many neighbours are participating in the sharing economy
www.streetbank.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
www.collaborativeconsumption.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
There’s lots of community art
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Many people are celebrating
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The Sustainable City
The Happy, Affordable City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing = Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens = Lower food costs
Innovative affordable housing = Lower housing costs
Green, solar, energy-efficient homes = Lower energy costs
The Sharing Economy = Lower cash costs
Stronger community economies = More financial security
Basic Income, debt solutions = More financial security
More urban greenery = More peace, more beauty
No more fossil fuels = Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement = Healthier political realm
Stronger neighbourhoods = More friends, more real community
More arts, music, celebration = More friends, more happiness,
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
8: How Do We Get There?
Community engagement x 500
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Design the Future Community Meetings
Engage Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com
Guy
Electronic ballots
Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16
Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting at municipal elections
Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting at municipal elections$100 voting tax credit (revenue neutral)
This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From? What Are We?
Where Are We Going??
Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of atoms in your body:
1027: 1000 trillion trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
We are amazing… and we are all conscious
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
We have free will We can make a difference
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,our future.
It’s Our World – So LETS CHANGE IT
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com