Identifying opportunities for the Natural Capital Project to engage in New England.

Identifying opportunities for the Natural Capital

Project to engage in New England

1. The project2. What is NatCap?3. Examples of our partnerships4. Ideas for how we could engage in New

England

1. The Project Apply NatCap’s InVEST ecosystem services assessment tool in New England or the Mid-Atlantic from March 2012-May 2013

Webinar goals - scope opportunities for engagement by:1. Identifying what ocean use/CMSP decisions you see on the

table and on the horizon2. Specify what ocean use/CMSP work you would like to

accomplish in the next year3. Based on 1 and 2, discuss how NatCap can be most useful


England

The Natural Capital Project

• Help people understand what we get

from nature

• Use that understanding to inform

decisions

Scientific basis, policy & finance mechanisms lacking for integrating natural capital into natural resource decisions

• Hydrology• Economics• Policy• GIS analysis• Computer

science

• Ecology• Marine biology• Coastal

engineering• Fisheries• Oceanography

Free and open-source. Available at: www.naturalcapitalproject.org

The InVEST tool

Applicable anywhere

Flexible (data, scale)

Scenario-based analysis

Biophysical and economic currencies

Multiple ecosystem services

Renewable energy (wave and offshore wind)FisheriesCoastal protectionAquacultureRecreationAesthetic qualityCarbon storage and sequestrationHabitat risk assessmentWater quality

Harvested

Biomass

LandedBiomas

s

Visitation

Rates

AvoidedArea

Flooded/Eroded

Energy Capture

d

Recreation

Fishery

Aquaculture

Coastal Protection

Wave Energy

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Model Outputs(ecosystem services &

values)Marine InVEST ModelsInput Data (reflect scenarios)

Habitat type

Species distribution

Bathymetry & Topography

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VALUATION

Aesthetic Quality

CarbonCarbon

Sequestered

Oceanography

2

6

1 8

9

3

7

4

5

SC

EN

AR

IOS

Value ofcarbon

sequestered

Value of captured

wave energy

Expenditures due to

recreationactivity

Net present

value of

finfish and

shellfish

Value of avoided damagesHabitat

Risk

WaterQuality

Population density

Property values

Aquaculture operation costs

BIO-PHYSICAL

Demographics

TERRESTRIAL SYSTEMS

e.g.

Harvested

Biomass

LandedBiomas

s

Visitation

Rates

AvoidedArea

Flooded/Eroded

Energy Capture

d

Recreation

Fishery

Aquaculture

Coastal Protection

Wave Energy

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Model Outputs(ecosystem services &

values)Marine InVEST Models

Input Data (reflect scenarios)

Habitat type

Species distribution

Bathymetry & Topography

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VALUATION

Aesthetic Quality

CarbonCarbon

Sequestered

Oceanography

2

6

1 8

9

3

7

4

5

SC

EN

AR

IOS

Value ofcarbon

sequestered

Value of captured

wave energy

Expenditures due to

recreationactivity

Net present

value of

finfish and

shellfish

Value of avoided damagesHabitat

Risk

WaterQuality

Population density

Property values

Aquaculture operation costs

BIO-PHYSICAL

Demographics

TERRESTRIAL SYSTEMS

e.g.


England

GENERAL STRUCTURE FOR THE WCVI AND BELIZE EXAMPLES:1. Say what partners were doing (generating marine

spatial plans) 2. Say how InVEST was used (weigh pros and cons of

the alternative spatial plans)3. Show what we produced for them – maps!

REST OF THE SLIDES IN THE WCVI AND BELIZE SECTIONS

ARE MATERIAL THAT I’LL PULL TO MAKE A COUPLE OF SLIDES

(~5-10 FOR EACH SITE).

West Coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

West Coast Aquatic Management Board[Federal, Provincial, First Nation, and local governments]

Create a marine spatial plan that balances interests of multiple stakeholders

Recreation (whale watching, fishing, surfing, kayaking)

Tourism

Aquaculture (Atlantic salmon, shellfish)

Wave energy generation

Shoreline protection

Capture fisheries (salmon, halibut, groundfish)

Traditional seafood harvest

Healthy habitats

West Coast Aquatic’s planning process

Yrs 1-2: a) Extensive

stakeholder interviews: what are local visions and values? Where do people use the marine space?

b) Identify objectives

Yrs 2-3: a) Identify

vulnerabilities and suitabilities

b) Develop draft zones and identify potential conflicts

c) Use InVEST to learn about costs and benefits of alternative plans

Yrs 3-4: a) Present zoning

options to stakeholders

b) Re-iterate zoning if necessary

c) Present plan to governing authorities

Simple science has big impacts

Aquaculture suitability Vulnerability to erosion and flooding

Drawing lines on a map is difficult

Draft human use zones

Issues of concern:-Effects of forestry and other industrial activities on aesthetic views-Effects of shellfish harvest and aquaculture on sensitive habitats

Sample scenario

TimberViews

Models improve decision making: Identify win-wins

Vulnerability to erosion and flooding

Population centers

Models improve decision making: Identify unexpected consequences and trade-offs

Move shellfish tenures away from population centers

Restore eelgrass in high risk, high benefit locations

Space matters: reduce incompatibilities by shifting activities in space

CMSP is about many decisions of all shapes and sizes. We need to be flexible.

District of Tofino: Which areas are most vulnerable to flooding? Setback distances for new development.

Where to site wave energy facilities?0 - 1.5

1.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 4.5

4.5 - 6.0

6.0 - 7.5

NPV ($ mil)

Large scale

Small scale

Where to site wave energy facilities?0 - 1.5

1.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 4.5

4.5 - 6.0

6.0 - 7.5

NPV ($ mil)

It’s not all about dollars. Biophysical outputs can be enough.

($ mil)

Quality of views

Add maps from WEM and Fisheries manuscript

A. Baseline B. Conservation

C. Industry Expansion

FloatHome

s

EelgrassRecreationa

lKayaking

IncreasedKayaking

ShellfishAquacultur

e

GeoduckHarvest

CrabHarvest

Guerry et al IJBSESM, in press



Low High

1.05 1.41 1.73 3.40 5.03 9.22

Ecosystem Risk

High Water Quality

Low Water Quality

0.000 0.101 0.280 0.527 0.874 1.600

g/m3 of fecal coliform bacteria



Belize

Coastal zone management plan for Belize

Draft zoning schemes• current uses• future uses• CACs, other stakeholder engagement• Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism)

HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE

Risk to habitats• coral• mangroves• seagrass

Fisheries

Coastal protection

Tourism opportunities

Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials


HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE


Fisheries

Coastal protection




Zones (CURRENT USES)

• Marine Transportation• Tourism/Recreation• Biodiversity• Critical Habitats• Shoals• Fishing• Coastal & Marine Managed Areas• Special Development Areas• Cultural & Historical Areas• Human Settlements• Coastal Development

The CAC Consultation Process

Usage of CAC Input

Development of Scenarios

Ideal Scenario

Unregulated Scenario

VS.

CURRENT MANAGED UNCHECKED

DEVELOPMENT

Protected Areas

High impactLow impact

Draft



Fisheries

Coastal protection




HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE


HABITATHIGH

RISK

VU

LNER

AB

ILIT

Y

EXPOSURE

Draft





HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE

Fisheries

Coastal protection


Inputs Outputs

Fishing zoneWhere do people catch lobster?

HabitatWhere? How much?

Fishing pressureHow much do people fish?

Catch of spiny lobster (no./m2/yr)

Market value of catch ($/m2/yr)

Value of habitats that support lobster

What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster?

Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch?

Marine InVEST Lobster fishery model


1816 lbs 1343 lbs1722 lbs

65 112 410 94

49 6064 408 385

Coral

Seagrass

Mangrove

(Areas in km2)

LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREADraft





HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE

Fisheries

Coastal protection


Site characteristicsbathymetry, topographyBiotic featureskelp, seagrass, coral, mangrove

Outputs

Erosion and flood control (area of land protected)

Coastal protection

Social dataland tenure, population levels, home values

Avoided damage costs to property ($)

Storm characteristicswind, waves, sea level

Inputs

Will restoration or protection of critical habitats provide cost effective protection from flooding and erosion?

# of people protected

Relative exposure

Erosion for Current & Future Unchecked Development

Changes in wave height due to SLR, habitat change, and hurricane cat 4

Managed future Unchecked development





HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE

Fisheries

Coastal protection


Inputs

Demographicspopulation

Attractorscultural, natural

Outputs

% of visitors to different locations

Tourism/recreation

Superstructureroads, hotels

Expenditures by visitors

What areas are most visited by tourists and how would visitation be affected by conservation or development?


DRECREATION/ TOURISM% VisitationDraft

Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services

Current zones of use

Managed development/

protection

Unchecked development

High impact dev 0.22 km 0.22 km 46.66 km

Low impact dev 0.08 km 14.21 km 0 km

Habitat area 587 km 565 km 493 km

Lobster catch 1816.19 lbs 1721.77 lbs 1342.58 lbs

Coastal protection

Tourism/recreation

Economic effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and

servicesCurrent zones of

use

Managed development/

protection

Unchecked development

High impact dev $ $ $

Low impact dev $ $ $

Habitat area

Lobster catch $ $ $

Coastal protection

$/# people

$/# people $/ #people

Tourism/recreation

$ $ $

High impact dev

Low impact dev

Habitat area

Lobster catch

Coastal protection

Recreation/tourism

Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and servicesManage

dUnchecke

d

Yes

No

No

Yes


DEVELOPMENT

Protected Areas

High impactLow impact

Draft

DRAFT

Erosion for Current & Future (Unchecked)

DevelopmentErosion Averages• Current = 1.58m• Future (Unchecked) =

89.17m

CURRENT UNCHECKED

0 - 2626 - 66

66 - 79

79 - 94

94 - 180

(in meters)

Category 4 Storm

3m

180m

High impact dev

Low impact dev

Habitat area

Lobster catch

Coastal protection

Recreation/tourism

Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and servicesManage

dUnchecke

d

Yes

No

No

Yes



HIGH RISK

VU

LNE

RA

BIL

ITY

EXPOSURE


Coastal protection

Fisheries



Scenarios:Storylines that describe possible futures

Examples 1) Current2) Managed Development3) Unchecked Development (BAU)

The CAC Consultation Process

Usage of CAC Input

Development of Scenarios

Ideal Scenario

Unregulated Scenario

VS.


DEVELOPMENT

Protected Areas

HIGH impactLOW impact

DRAFT

CURRENT MANAGED

HABITATUNCHECKED

DRAFT


1816 lbs 1343 lbs1722 lbs

65 112 410 94

49 6064 408 385

Coral

Seagrass

Mangrove

(Areas in km2)

LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREA

DRAFT

DRAFT

Erosion for Current & Future (Unchecked)

DevelopmentErosion Averages• Current = 1.58m• Future (Unchecked) =

89.17m

CURRENT UNCHECKED

0 - 2626 - 66

66 - 79

79 - 94

94 - 180

(in meters)

Category 4 Storm

3m

180m

Effect of Alternative Zoning Schemes on Uses and

Servicescurrent zones of use

managed development/

protection

unchecked development

high impact development

0.22 km 0.22 km 46.66 km

low impact development

0.08 km 14.21 km 0.00 km

habitat area 587 km 565 km 493 km

lobster catch 1816.19 lbs

1721.77 lbs 1342.58 lbs

coastal protection

tourism/recreation

16,037 visitor days

16,298 visitor days

22,976 visitor days

DRAFT

current zones of use

managed development/

protection

unchecked development


$ $ $

low impact development

$ $ $

habitat area km2 km2 km2

lobster catch $ $ $

coastal protection

$/ # people

$/ # people $/ # people

tourism/recreation

$ $ $

Economic Effect of Alternative Zoning Schemes on Uses and Services

DRAFT

habitat area

lobster catch

coastal protection

recreation/tourism

low Impact development


Effect of Alternative Zoning Schemes on Uses and

ServicesManaged Unchecked

DRAFT

Coastal zone management questions(examples)

• What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster?

• Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch?

What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km2)

What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

Valuation?

• Gross export revenue• Net revenue – we need better

information on fishing and processing costs

• NPV – need net revenue• Do we want to value lobster

exported, sold locally, together, separately?

What habitat areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km2)

Loss of habitats decreases catchCurrent habitat 50% reduction in

habitat per planning region

Identify Objectives

Develop Scenarios

Compile Data

Run InVEST(create maps in supply,

ecosystem service, and/or value metrics)

Synthesize Results (e.g. identify

trade-offs/win-wins)

Sta

keh

old

er

En

gag

em

en

t

How do our engagements generally work?

1. The project2. What is NatCap?3. Examples of our partnerships4. Ideas for how we could engage in

New England

We have flexibility and can do multiple scales – just need to scope how much each application entails; this is what

we’ve done in Monterey Bay

We realize there’s been a ton done here already (Mass Ocean Partnership; RI SAMP; offshore wind; application of MIMES) and would like to complement

that work, not be redundant.

At the large scale (RPB-scale):

• Maps. Existing services, vulnerabilities:– Renewable energy

(offshore wind)– Fisheries– Coastal protection– Aquaculture– Recreation– Aesthetic quality– Carbon storage and

sequestration– Habitat risk assessment– Water quality

• Climate scenario from NOAA?

At the smaller scale:

• Likely something involving wind and fisheries– Application related to Dept. of Interior’s

Smart from the Start Initiative (mandate to get wind energy going on the E. Coast)

– Potential site: New Bedford scallop grounds and wind energy siting

Discussion:1. What ocean use/CMSP decisions do

you see on the table and on the horizon?

2. What ocean use/CMSP work you would like to accomplish in the next year?

3. How NatCap can be most useful?

Identifying opportunities for the Natural Capital Project to engage in New England.

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