Identifying emerging risks
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Identifying Emerging Risks in the Food Chain iFood 2013 9 October 2013, Don Willems, Jan Top [email protected]
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Transcript of Identifying emerging risks
Identifying Emerging Risks in the Food Chain
iFood 2013
9 October 2013, Don Willems, Jan Top [email protected]
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Objective
To become aware of potential risks before they
affect human health
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Identifying Food Safety Risks
Reactive Systems
RASFF - Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed
Exchange of information between nations (e.g. GIEWS))
Searching for/Monitoring of information (e.g. EMM)
Proactive Systems
Horizon Scanning, foresight, risk profiling, ...
Holistic systems
ERDSS (Emerging Risk Detection Support System)
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Holistic Systems
Human Behaviour
PoliticsNature
Environment
Economy
Legislation
Science
Technology
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Holistic Systems
• Conclusions from case studies
• In every case study influential sectors were identified. Most frequent influential sectors were:
• Science and technology
• Human behaviour
• Nature and environment
• Legislation & economy
• Many indicators (and related data sources) were identified, generic and case-specific
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Holistic Systems
• Detection needs:
• Monitoring of news/science/... / other sources - Information Retrieval
• Text Mining - Information Extraction
• Data extraction (databases/spreadsheets) - Information Extraction
• Inferring possible risks - Reasoning
• Reporting
• Evaluation (by experts)
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Ontologies
• Represents knowledge as
• Graph
• Concepts - nodes
• Classes
• Instances (of classes)
• Relations - edges
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
E_Coli
Escherichia
subclass of
subclass of
Enterobacteriaceae
Klebsiella
subclass of
Klebsiella_pneumoniae
subclass of
Technology - Ontologies
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Ontologies
E_Coli
is a
The_E_Coli_bacterium_in_the_Lettuce_in_my_taco
is a
The_E_Coli_bacterium_in_cow_XXX
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Ontologies
E_Coli
label
"E. coli"
label
"Escherichia coli"
label
"大腸桿菌"
label
"Pałeczka okrężnicy"
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Ontologies
E_Coli
Pathogenic_E_Coli
subclass of
depiction of
may be caused by
Gastrointestinal_infection
may be caused by
Neonatal_meningitis
Warm_blooded_organisms
may be found in
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Ontologies
E_Coli
Pathogenic_E_Coli
Neonatal_meningitisGastrointestinal_infection
Warm_blooded_organisms
EscherichiaEnterobacteriaceae
Klebsiella
Klebsiella_pneumoniae
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Retrieval
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the forthcoming gadget, Korean publication ChosunIlbo reported.
Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the flexible OLED screens from Korean firms including LG and Samsung.
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Retrieval
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the forthcoming gadget, Korean publication ChosunIlbo reported.
Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the flexible OLED screens from Korean firms including LG and Samsung.
✓
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Retrieval
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the forthcoming gadget, Korean publication ChosunIlbo reported.
Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the flexible OLED screens from Korean firms including LG and Samsung.
✓⨯
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Extraction
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Extraction
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden_Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
Granny_Smith cultivar of Apple
Granny_Smith has allergenicity High_Allergenicity
Golden_Delicious has allergenicity High_Allergenicity
Cox_Orange has allergenicity High_Allergenicity
EXTRACTED FACTS
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Extraction
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden_Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange Granny_Smith has allergenicity High_Allergenicity
Golden_Delicious has allergenicity High_Allergenicity
Cox_Orange has allergenicity High_Allergenicity
Granny_Smith
cultivar of
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Extraction
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
cultivar of
Golden_Delicious
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
Granny_Smith
cultivar of
High_Allergenicity
has allergenicity
has allergenicityAllergenicity
subclass of
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Information Extraction
Apple
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Elstar
cultivar of
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
Granny_Smith
cultivar of
High_Allergenicity
has allergenicity
has allergenicityAllergenicity
subclass of
Previous studies have shown that commonly used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic, containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple, which so far has no name, tastes better and is more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so far is the only apple variety that can be offered to people with allergies.
Gloster
cultivar of
Jamba Low_Allergenicityhas allergenicity
has allergenicity
subclass of
Belle_de_Boskoop
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
• Automatic reasoning is used to infer new facts
• Rule-based reasoning
• IF condition_A OR/AND condition_B THEN consequent ELSE alternative
• May lead to Chain reaction of rules firing
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
• Example
• Source: FAO/Eurostat
• Indicator: Increased production of meat in country X
• IF increased_production_of_meat_in_country_X THEN increased_disease_pressure_in_countryX
• Result: Increased disease pressure in cattle in country X
• IF increased_disease_pressure_in_country_X THEN increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X
• Result: Increased use of antibiotics in country X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
• Example
• Result: Increased use of antibiotics in country X
• IF increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X THEN food_safety_risk_for_meat_from_country_X
• Result: Food safety risk for meat from country X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
production
meat
of
increase
trend
locationcountry_X
from
cattle
IF THENofcattle
location
country_X
location
disease_pressure
increase
trend
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
production
meat
of
increase
trend
locationcountry_X
from
cattle
IF THENofcattle
location
country_X
location
disease_pressure
increase
trend
production
country_X
cattle
meat
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
production
meat
of
increase
trend
locationcountry_X
from
cattle
IF THENofcattle
location
country_X
location
disease_pressure
increase
trend
production
country_X
cattle
meat
increase
NEW FACT : Increase of meat production in country X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
production
meat
of
increase
trend
locationcountry_X
from
cattle
IF THENofcattle
location
country_X
location
disease_pressure
increase
trend
production
country_X
cattle
meat
increase
=
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
country_X
production
country_X
cattle
meat
increase
disease_pressure
increase
country_X
antibiotics
production
meat
of
increase
trend
locationcountry_X
from
cattle
IF THENofcattle
location
location
disease_pressure
increase
trend
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
meat
country_X
fromcattle
IF THENlocation
production
country_X
cattle
meat
increase
disease_pressure
increase
disease_pressure
of
increase
trend
meatcountry_X
from
cattleantibiotics
in trend
increase
antibiotics
increase
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Technology - Reasoning
IF THEN
production
country_X
cattle
meat
increase
disease_pressure
increase
meatcountry_X
from
antibiotics
in trend
increase
antibiotics
increase
meatcountry_X
from
cattleantibiotics
in trend
increase
food_safety_risk
for
food_safety_risk
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Reporting
• The food safety expert needs:
• The data sources that led to the inference of the food safety risk
• The inferred facts
• The rules used in the inference
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Reporting
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Reporting
Increased production of meat in country X
Increased disease pressure in cattle in
country X
Increased use of antibiotics in country X
Food safety risk for meat from country X
IF increased_production_of_meat_in_country_X THEN increased_disease_pressure_in_countryX
IF increased_disease_pressure_in_country_X THEN increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X
IF increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X THEN food_safety_risk_for_meat_from_country_X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab
Conclusions
• For realistic proactive system that can process all the data available we need:
• information retrieval
• information extraction
• reasoning
• reporting
• And lots of expert knowledge that can be formalised in ontologies.
