IDBI Corporation bank possible merger analysis

8/14/2019 IDBI Corporation bank possible merger analysis

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/idbi-corporation-bank-possible-merger-analysis 1/13

J

Neev - AnschlussCase Deliverables Proposed IDBI Bank-Corporation Bank

Merger

Team Bizczars

Ankur Rohtagi

Raman Goyal

Mohit Jain

FORE School of Management

New Delhi

2008



Anschluss Case Deliverables 2008

2 | P a g e

RBI in their recent report „Current and Finance 2008‟ has laid down the major issues/challenges

for the banking sector in near future. These are:

(i) Mobilizing resources to sustain & accelerate the current economic growth momentum.

(ii) Implementation of Basel II norms by foreign banks in India and Indian banks having

operational presence abroad from March 31, 2008 and by other scheduled commercial

banks by March 31, 2009.

(iii) Issues involved in for entrance of foreign banks is due for review in April 2009.

Amidst opposition from sections against mergers in the banking sector, the Reserve Bank of

India (RBI) has made a clear case for consolidation among banks.

In a latest study of banking mergers in the post reform era, the RBI said that the banks have

registered significant gains in efficiency and profitability after mergers.

Further, the four public sector banks have made greater efficiency gains than their private sector

peers, the RBI said, after analyzing seven merger cases of relatively large banks. In the case of

the Punjab National Bank, the Union Bank of India, the Oriental Bank of Commerce and the

Bank of Baroda, change in the average return on assets (ROA) during the post-merger period

over pre-merger period was positive and statistically significant.

As in the case, IDBI bank has shown keenness in acquiring another bank either in public or

private sector as a part of their strategy for increasing their branch network, customer base,

improved technology usage and product portfolio. Corporation Bank having wide branch

network, superior technology usage and wide product base appear as a suitable target for the

acquisition.




3 | P a g e

Financial Statement Analysis of Acquiring IDBI Bank and Target Corporation Bank

„CAMEL‟ model is used for the quantitative analysis to determine the financial and competitive

position of the two banks. „CAMEL‟ is banking supervisory and evaluation model comprises of

analysis of various ratios under the heads of „C’apital Adequacy, „A

’sset Quality, „M

’anagement

Efficiency, „E’arnings and „L’iquidity. Ratios are also determined for 25 other listed public

sector banks along with IDBI and Corporation Bank to determine their sector position under

various heads. Results of the analysis are as follows:

Capital Adequacy

Ratios

Corporation

Bank IDBI Bank

Score Rank Score Rank

Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 12.09 13 11.95 16

Debt/Equity (times) 1 0.69 4 6.46 27

Advances/Asset (%) 58.82 21 62.9 4

G-Sec/Investment (%) 2 85.6 14 71.04 26

Group Rank 11 24

Asset Quality

Ratios

Corporation

Bank IDBI Bank


Net Non Performing Asset/Total Assets (%) 3 0.19 5 0.83 24

Net Non Performing Assets/Net Advances (%) 4 0.32 5 1.32 24

Total Income/Total Assets (%) 24.79 4 25.1 5

Change in Non Performing Assets (%) 5 -10.57 6 50 25

Group Rank 1 22




4 | P a g e

Management Efficiency

Ratios

Corporation

Bank IDBI Bank


Total Assets/Total Deposits (%) 70.7 14 112.62 1

Profit Per Employee (Crores) 0.07 2 0.08 1

Business Per Employee (Crores) 8.39 3 18.09 1

Return on Net Worth (%)6

15.14 17 7.83 25

Group Rank 6 7

Earnings Quality

Ratios

Corporation

Bank IDBI Bank


Operating Profit/Average Working Funds (%)7

2.2 6 1.19 26

Profit After Tax Growth (%)8

37.09 7 15.73 20

Net Interest Margin (%)9

3.04 10 0.65 27

Profit After Tax/Average Assets (%) ̀10

1.23 6 0.62 24

Interest Income/Working Funds (%) 7.95 18 7.18 26

Group Rank 8 27

Liquidity

Ratios Corporation

Bank IDBI Bank


Liquid Assets/Demand Deposits (%) 101.14 27 177.38 4

Liquid Assets/Total Deposits (%) 19.17 2 17.66 4

G-Sec/Total Assets (%) 21.22 21 17.83 27

Approved Securities/Total Assets (%) 0.17 20 0.01 26

Liquid Assets/Total Assets (%)11

15.95 1 9.86 26

Group Rank 15 24




5 | P a g e

Synergies of the Merger

These are the various Quantitative as well as Qualitative synergies, which the IDBI can

leverage upon post merger with corporation bank.

Positives: (Superscripts below refers to CAMEL ratios)

(1) Improved Debt to Equity ratio after merger thereby decrease gearing on its balance sheet1

(2) Reduced exposure to market by investing more in G-Secs or risk free securities 2

(3) Lowering of NPA‟s in the basket of IDBI 3,4

(4) Utilization of better recovery mechanism of NPA‟s 5

(5) Increase in the net-worth of the bank 6

(6) Better utilization of the working funds 7

(7) Surge in Net Interest Margin (NIM) and hence Improved Profits 8,9

(8) Improved Return on Assets 10,11

(9) Significant Improvement in the Rural Branch Network from existing 10.5% to 16%

(Annexure I) which will lead to better penetration of already existing Agri Business

product portfolio.

Negatives:

(1) Corporation Bank has poorest Advances to Assets Ratio.

(2) Business per Branch of the merged entity to be decreased by 45% in case of no

foreclosures of branches.

(3) Business per Employee to be decreased by 25% in case of no lay-offs.

(4) Assets per Branch of merged entity to be decreased by 49%

(5) Assets per Employee to be decreased by 29%.

(6) Profits per Branch of merged entity to be decreased by 32%

For Detailed Analysis refer Annexure II




6 | P a g e

Legal Hurdles of the Merger

The regulatory framework for M&A‟s in the banking sector is laid down in the Banking

Regulation (BR) Act, 1949. The Act provides for two types of amalgamations, viz., (i) voluntary

and (ii) compulsory. For voluntary amalgamation, Section 44A of the BR Act provides that the

scheme of amalgamation of a banking company with another banking company and is required

to be approved individually by the board of directors of both the banking companies and

subsequently by the two-thirds shareholders (in value) of both the banking companies.

The statutory framework for the amalgamation of public sector banks, viz., nationalized banks,

State Bank of India and its subsidiary banks, is, however, quite different since the foregoing

provisions of the BR Act do not apply to them. As regards the nationalized banks, the BankingCompanies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertakings) Act, 1970 and 1980, or the Bank

Nationalization Acts authorize the Central Government under Section 9(1)(c) to prepare or make,

after consultation with the Reserve Bank, a scheme, inter alia, for the transfer of undertaking of a

„corresponding new bank‟ (i.e., a nationalized bank) to another „corresponding new bank‟ or for

the transfer of whole or part of any banking institution to a corresponding new bank. Unlike the

sanction of the schemes by the Reserve Bank under Section 44A of the BR Act, the scheme

framed by the Central Government is required, under Section 9(6) of the Bank Nationalization

Acts, to be placed before the both Houses of Parliament.




7 | P a g e

Valuation of the Deal

1. Three Stage Dividend Discount Model:

It is the most general of the models because it does not impose any restrictions on the payout

ratio and assumes an initial period of stable high growth, a second period of declining growth

and a third period of stable low growth that lasts forever. Figure below graphs the expected

growth over the three time periods

Implicit Assumption:

Only dividends are paid. Remaining portion of earnings is invested back into the firm, some in

operating assets and some in cash & marketable securities .

Strengths of the DDM:

The dividend discount model's primary attraction is its simplicity and its intuitive logic. After all,

dividends represent the only cash flow from the firm that is tangible to investors. Estimates of

free cash flows to equity and the firm remain estimates and conservative investors can

reasonably argue that they cannot lay claim on these cash flows.

Limitations of the Dividend Discount Model:

The dividend discount model‟s strict adherence to dividends as cash flows does expose it to a

serious problem. Many firms choose to hold back cash that they can pay out to stockholders. As

a consequence, the free cash flows to equity at these firms exceed dividends and large cash

balances build up. In the dividend discount model, we essentially abandon equity claims on cash

balances and under value companies with large and increasing cash balances.




8 | P a g e

We have given the explanation of Corporation Bank below. Similarly on the same model, we

have calculated the value of IDBI Bank as Rs92.37 and is shown in the excel sheet. Below is the

explanation of the sheet.

DDM Valuation of Corporation Bank:

Corporation Bank reported a return on equity of 17.52% for FY08 and paid out dividends per

share of Rs 10.50 year (on reported earnings per share of Rs 52.33). We will assume that its

bigger asset base build over by high debt will allow the bank to maintain its current return on

equity (low by industry standards) and retention ratio for the next 7 years, leading to an

estimated expected growth rate in earnings per share of 10%:

Payout Ratio = Dividend per share/ Earning per share = 10.5/52.33= 20.06%

Expected Growth rate = Retention ratio * ROE = (1-0.2006)* 17.52% = 14.00%

Analysing & then normalizing the normal EPS growth rate we found, that actual growth rate is

10.02% and not 14% as calculated for the annual one.

Growth rate in EPS is calculated on

the historical overall performance

of the stock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Avg. Growth

EPS 32.2 23.42 25.9 29.4 42.1

Growth rate -27.27 10.46 13.45 43.44 10.02

The cost of equity for the high growth period is estimated using a beta of 1.16 for Corp. bank

(based upon the return of stock on index and returns on index), the Indian rupee risk free rate of

8% (i.e. yield of 10 year Govt. Bonds) and a market risk premium of 8.21% (calculated using last

8 year returns of NIFTY from Apr01-Mar31 every year and it comes out to be 16.21%, thereby

“market premium= market return- Risk free rate” i.e. 16.21%-8%=8.21%)

Cost of equity in high growth using CAPM Model= 8% + 1.16(8.21%) = 17.52%

After year 7, we will assume that the beta will decline towards 0.8 in stable growth (which

will occur after the 15th year) and that the risk premium for India will also drop to 5% (reflectingour assumptions that India will become a more stable economy).

Cost of equity in stable growth = 4% + 0.8 (5%) = 8.00%

We will assume that competition will pick up after year 9, pushing the return on equity down to

the stable period cost of equity of 12.00% by the 15th year. The payout ratio in stable growth can




9 | P a g e

then be estimated using the stable growth rate of 5% and using industry averages for ROE to be

12%:

Stable period payout ratio = 1- Expected Growth rate/ ROE = 1- 8% / 17.5% = 58.33%~ 60%

Table below summarizes the assumptions about payout ratios and expected growth rates and also

shows the estimated earnings and dividends per share each year for the next 9 years:

Years

Expected

GrowthRate

Earnings

pershare

Payoutratio

Dividends

per share(DPS)

Cost ofEquity

Cumulative

Cost ofEquity

Present

Valueof DPS

1 10.00% 57.56 20.06% 11.55 17.52% 1.175236 9.83

2 10.00% 63.32 20.06% 12.70 17.52% 1.38117966 9.20

3 10.00% 69.65 20.06% 13.97 17.52% 1.62321205 8.61

4 10.00% 76.62 20.06% 15.37 17.52% 1.90765724 8.06

5 10.00% 84.28 20.06% 16.91 17.52% 2.24194747 7.54

6 10.00% 92.71 20.06% 18.60 17.52% 2.63481737 7.06

7 10.00% 101.98 20.06% 20.46 17.52% 3.09653223 6.61

Present value of dividend in high growth phase 56.89

8 9.67% 111.83 22.72% 25.41 17.16% 3.62775348 7.00

9 9.00% 121.90 28.05% 34.19 16.42% 4.22338997 8.10

10 8.33% 132.06 33.37% 44.07 15.68% 4.88571888 9.02

11 7.67% 142.18 38.70% 55.02 14.95% 5.61593451 9.80

12 7.00% 152.13 44.02% 66.98 14.21% 6.41392736 10.44

13 6.33% 161.77 49.35% 79.83 13.47% 7.27807323 10.97

14 5.67% 170.94 54.67% 93.46 12.74% 8.20504357 11.39

15 5.00% 179.48 60.00% 107.69 12.00% 9.1896488 11.72

Present value of dividend in transition phase 78.44

During the transition phase, all of the inputs change in equal annual installments from the high

growth period values to stable growth period values. Since the costs of equity change over time,

the cumulated cost of equity is used to calculate the present value of dividends.

The terminal price at the end of year 15 can be calculated based upon the earnings per share in

year 15, the stable growth rate of 5%, a cost of equity of 12.00% and the payout ratio of 60.00%

Terminal Price= [179.48* (1.05)* (0.60)] / (0.12-0.05) = Rs1615.32

To get the present value, we divide by the cumulated cost of equity in year 15 by terminal value

to get Rs 175.78:

The components of value are as follows:




10 | P a g e

Present Value of dividends in high growth phase: Rs 56.89

Present Value of dividends in transition phase: Rs 78.44

Present Value of terminal price at end of transition: Rs. 175.78

Current Fair Value of Corporation Bank stock: Rs. 311.11.

2. EV/EBITDA Multiple:

Enterprise value (EV) is total company value (the market value of debt, common equity, and

preferred equity) minus the value of cash and investments. Also,

EV= Market Capitalization+ Market Value of Debt- Cash & near Cash

Numerator is enterprise value, EV/EBITDA is a valuation indicator for the overall company

rather than common stock the analyst can assume that the business's debt and preferred stock (if

any) are efficiently priced.

Advantages for using EV/EBITDA:

• EV/EBITDA may be more appropriate than P/E for comparing companies with different

financial leverage (debt), because EBITDA is a pre- interest earnings figure, in contrast to

EPS, which is post-interest.

Drawbacks for EV/EBITDA:

• EBITDA is overestimating cash flow from operations as working capital grows.

• EBITDA also ignores the effects of differences in revenue recognition policy on cashflow

from operations.

Calculations provided in the spreadsheet under the sheet multiples valuation reflect the current

market scenario (Low Market Capitalization) of equity thereby giving depressed valuations for

both the banks (IDBI: Rs53.48 & Corp.: 209.60). Both the values are eroding the net worth of

the company and does not justify the real worth of both the set of companies.




11 | P a g e

MERGER VALUATION OF IDBI & CORPORATION BANK :

Considering the credit crisis in the global financial markets, among the various modes by which

IDBI may finance the deal would be through all swap deal. The reasons being:

1. IDBI having a very high gearing of almost 6.46 (D/E) makes it incapable of raising any cash

from the market. Hence, it would not be possible to go for all cash deal.

2. With the current credit crisis, it will be almost near impossible for IDBI bank to create an

Leverage buyout. Further, traditionally govt. banks in India, they have never followed these

methods. Jounal

3. An all swap or swap-cash deal is more then possible thereby maintain regulatory requirements

of over 50% Govt. holding in any scenario.

1. Swap Ratio calculated based on book value method

Valuation

Shares

in Cr.

Face

value

Equity(Subscribed

in Cr.)

Latest

Reserve

(Cr.)

Book

value

(Cr.)

Book

value/share

Swap

ratio

IDBI Bank 72.34 Rs 10 14.34 6655.7 6799.1 93.99

Corp. bank 14.34 Rs 10 72.34 3559.82 4283.22 298.69 3.18

NOTE: Swap ratio taken into Consideration is 3.18:1 i.e. 3 IDBI share for 1 shares of Corp Bank

2. Swap ratio Calculated using DDM valuation Prices obtained for banks

Valuation Price By DDM

Swap Ratio on

valuations

IDBI Bank 92.37

Corp. bank 311.11 3.368

3. For All Swap Deal

Average of swap ratio by two methods 3.27

4. Changes in Shareholding PatternChange in the number of shares In Cr.

No. of shares to be received by shareholders of Corp. Bank fromIDBI 46.94

Existing shares of IDBI Bank 72.34

After merger with IDBI total shareholders 119.28

Increase in the number of shares of Corp. Bank In IDBI Bank by

39.35% =(46.94/119.28)=39.35%




12 | P a g e

5. Deal Size by Calculation:

DEAL SIZE Value in Cr. Except Share Price

Shares allotted to Corp. Bank 46.94

IDBI Share Price as per DDM Valuation 92.37

Amount paid: IDBI merger 4335.40

6. Conclusion:

According to us an all swap deal will allow IDBI to use the client as well as asset base in a better

way, also by having Corp. Bank, it will be able to deleverage itself in the current credit crisis

scenario where most leverage banks fall the fastest.

The all swap deal will give approximately Corp. bank a share of 39.35% in IDBI Bank. The

swap ratio of 3.27 being calculated above using both the Book Value as well as DDM prices.The approximate deal size obtained on the basis of the Nov14 ,2008 current prices is 4335.4

Crores.

.




13 | P a g e

Annexure I

Branch Network

Metro Urban Semi-Urban Rural Total

IDBI Bank 178 172 99 53 502

% Total 35.46% 34.26% 19.72% 10.56%

Corporation Bank 294 253 183 171 901

% Total 32.63% 28.08% 20.31% 18.98%

Merger Entity 472 425 282 224 1403

% Total 33.64% 30.29% 20.10% 15.97%

Annexure II

Rs in crores IDBI BankCorporation

Bank

Merged

EntityPecentage Increase

PAT (FY08) 745.88 750.52 1496.4 100.62%

Assets 130694 66598 197292 50.96%

Deposits 72998 55424 128422 75.93%

Advances 82213 39186 121399 47.66%

Business (Advances +Deposits) 155211 94610 249821 60.96%

Branches (No.) 502 981 1483 195.42%

Employees (No.) 9,324 10,722 20,046 114.99%

Business/Branch 309.19 96.44 168.46 -45.52%

Business/Employee 16.65 8.82 12.46 -25.13%

Assets/Branch 260.35 67.89 133.04 -48.90%

Assets/Employee 14.02 6.21 9.84 -29.79%

PAT/Branch 1.49 0.77 1.01 -32.09%

PAT/Employee 0.08 0.07 0.07 -6.68%

IDBI Corporation bank possible merger analysis

Documents

Transcript of IDBI Corporation bank possible merger analysis