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Transcript of Ian Butler INDA, Association of Nonwoven Fabrics Industry/media/.../01_Nonwoven... · U.S. 2011...
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Ian Butler INDA, Association of Nonwoven Fabrics Industry
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Trends NAFTA
Economy Up US Dollar Up Recycling “Green” Up Air Quality Issues Up Population Aging Stable
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Trends European Union
Economy Slow Growth Euro Down Green Established & Up “Made in Europe” Up Population Aging Increase Country Defaults Pending
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Trends China
Economy Up RMB Up Recycling Green Non-existent Population Aging Stable
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Gross Domestic Product By World Region Forecast Growth Rate
Region 2011 World GDP 2016 2011-2016 ($, trillions) ($, share) ($, trillions) (% per year)
NAFTA 18.2 23% 22.6 4.1 European Union 15.7 21% 18.7 3.5 China 11.2 14% 18.9 11.0 Japan 4.4 6% 5.3 3.0 India 4.4 6% 7.0 10.0 Rest of World 24.2 30% 32.8 6.1
WORLD 78.1 100.0% 105.3 6.0
Source: CIA estimates
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Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production
1997
2002
2011
2016
Growth Rate
1997-2010 (%/Year)
Growth Rate
2011-2016 (%/Year)
Dollars (billions)
$11 $15 $26 $37 6.2% 7.8%
Sq Meters (billions)
61 93 205 305 8.7% 9.0%
Tonnes (millions)
2.7 4.0 7.6 11.1 7.7% 7.8%
Source: INDA estimates
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Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production (millions of tonnes)
2006
2011
2016
Growth Rate 2006-2011
(%/Year)
Growth Rate 2011-2016
(%/Year) NAFTA 1.61 1.87 2.20 3.0% 3.3%
Europe 1.56 1.95 2.60 4.6% 5.9%
China 0.97 1.65 2.82 10.5% 12.0%
Other Asia Pacific 0.51 0.59 0.78 3.0% 5.7%
Japan 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.0% 1.2%
Middle East 0.26 0.32 0.45 3.6% 7.7%
Rest of World 0.44 0.90 1.88 16.6% 14.6% TOTAL 5.68 7.61 11.08 6.0% 7.8%
Source: INDA estimates
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2011 NA Nonwovens Market
Short-Life 70%
Long-Life 30%
1.57 million tonnes
Short-Life 68%
Long-Life 32%
$6.0 billion
Source: INDA estimates
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Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market Value $ 4.1
(billion)
Absorbent Hygiene
20%
Wipes 19%
Medical/ Surgical
18%
Air/Liquid Filtration
20%
Protective Apparel
13%
Other Disposables
10%
Source: INDA estimates
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Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market 1,091,000
(tonnes)
Absorbent Hygiene
30%
Wipes 26%
Medical/ Surgical
15%
Air/Liquid Filtration
15%
Protective Apparel
2%
Other Disposables
12%
Source: INDA estimates
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Baby Diaper Trends
NAFTA sales stagnant due to sluggish economy in 2011. Expect much of the same in 2012. Increased promotional activity and bulk packaging to reduce costs to consumer Increasing segmentation of market:
More product differentiation: Baby Diapers available in more colors … and print patterns More Seasonal and Limited Edition diapers (similar to Huggies’ Little Movers concept)
Source: INDA estimates
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Baby Diaper Trends
Diaper components continue to move towards lower weights to reduce unit and shipping cost
Development of small Vac-Packaged travel / emergency diapers for convenience
Source: INDA estimates
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Feminine Care Trends
Feminine pad designs trending to thinner, slimmer and lighter adult products Menstruation starting earlier and products under development for 10-14 year olds
Pads and tampons are shorter, narrower and lighter Pads and tampons have brilliant colors and prints to attract youth (see U by Kotex products)
Source: INDA estimates
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Wipes Trends
Expect more industry consolidation (Ahlstrom->Suominen) Flushable wipes issue continues to simmer. It is in our interest to understand flushability issues Airlaid Pulp and Wetlaid technologies recapturing some volume lost to spunlaced nonwovens
Source: INDA estimates
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Summary 2011 NA Durable Market $1.9 (billions) Interlining
2% Shoe
Construction 1%
Upholstered furnishing &
bedding 12%
Automotive 9%
Geotextiles 16%
Building Construction
8%
Agric/ Landscape
4%
Carpet components
/ backing 10%
Coated & Laminates
6%
Battery Separators
11%
Other Durables
21%
Source: INDA estimates
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Summary 2011 NA Durable Market 476,000 Tonnes (thousands)
Interlining 1%
Shoe Construction
1%
Upholstered furnishing &
bedding 17%
Automotive 7%
Geotextiles 25% Building
Construction 10%
Agric/ Landscape
6%
Carpet components/
backing 10%
Coated & Laminates
6%
Battery Separators
3%
Other Durables
14%
Source: INDA estimates
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Outlook for 2012 Economy
• Forecast growth for NAFTA 3 - 4% • No double dip recession • Unemployment drops to 8% range • Inflation contained • Housing construction … starting to
grow • Short term interest rates to remain low
Source: INDA estimates
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Summary 2011 European Disposable Market
Source: INDA Estimates
1,096,200 tonnes
Filtration 129 12% Medical
58 5%
Wipes 321 28%
Hygiene 588 55%
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Summary 2011 European Durable Market
Interlining 4%
Shoe Construction
3%
Upholstered furnishing &
bedding 12%
Automotive 10%
Geotextiles 14%
Building Construction
30%
Agric/ Landscape
5%
Carpet components/
backing 10%
Carpet components/
backing 4%
Coated & Laminates
5% Battery
Separators 0%
Other Durables
3%
(853,800 tonnes)
Source: INDA estimates
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2011 European Nonwovens Market By Technology
Source: INDA Estimates
Spunmelt 43%
Thermally-bonded
9%
Chemically-bonded
9%
Needled 10%
Spunlaced 12%
Composites
1%
Wetlaid 6%
Airlaid 10%
(1.95 million tonnes)
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2011 Asian Nonwovens Market 2.6 million tonnes
Source: ANFA estimates
Japan 10%
Korea 7%
Taiwan 5%
China 68%
India 6%
Other 4%
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2016 Nonwoven Projection in Asia 4.3 million tonnes
Source: ANFA estimates
Japan 5%
Korea 5%
Taiwan 2%
China 79%
India 6%
Other 3%
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2011 U.S. Nonwovens Trade (thousands of tonnes, roll goods)
Source: INDA estimates
0255075
100125150175200225250275300325
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9920
00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Exports 290 tonnes
Imports 190 tonnes
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China 22%
Israel 10%
Mexico 9%
Brazil 8%
Canada 7%
Germany 7%
Other 36%
U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Imports…Top 6 Countries (191,000 tonnes)
Source: INDA estimates
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U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Exports … Top 6 Countries (290,000 tonnes)
Canada 22%
Mexico, 21% U.K. 4%
China 13%
Honduras 3% Japan 4%
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• Latest converting applications using ultrasonic, coating, laminating, water jet, and laser technologies
• New market opportunities and applications in medical, military, alternative energy, automotive, geotextiles, building/construction, protective barriers and more
• Table-tops and receptions to maximize networking opportunities
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