Holistic Flood Risk

Management in the Elbe

Estuary – The Pearl

Approach

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M.Sc. A. Gruhn,

Dr.-Ing. N. Manojlovic

Dipl.-Ing. Ilya Gerschivic

Dipl.-Ing. Suleman Shaikh

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Fröhle

Hambrug University of Technology

The Elbe Estuary

HAMBURG

North Sea

weir Geesthacht

Elbe Estuary

SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN

LOWER SAXONY

protection infrastructure

Discharge

High precipitation

Problem description

Multi hazards - storm surge, heavy precipitation

Type of Hazard: Floods in estuaries (incl. failure of flood protection

infrastructure)

Risk:(Anticipated) increased probability and consequences of flooding

of the hinterland due to:

1. Sea-level rise, increase of storm events and higher hydrological

loads

2. Urbanisation of the hinterland and higher utilization pressure

3. Impacts of the policy making towards climate change adaptation

resulting in an unbalanced risk distribution in the entire estuary

system, which is governed within several administrative units

(authorities) (main focus)

Research focus within PEARL (I)

• Main focus:

HAMBURG

North Sea

weir Geesthacht

Elbe Estuary

SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN

LOWER SAXONY

2. Interface

with the

real time

(BHS) Data,

e.g Gauge

Cuxhaven.

1.

Hydrodynamic

model of the

Elbe Estuary

1, 23,4

5. Failure of

the flood

protection

infrastructure

6. Hinterland flooding&

holistic risk assessment

Holistic Flood Risk Management in the Elbe Estuary

- Operational level- Strategic level

- Technical (models and tools)- Social (stakeholder involvement)

Research focus within PEARL (II)

Weir Geesthacht

North Sea

Storm surge

1. Hydrodynamic model

X1. Measures(e.g. evacuation,Strengthening of dikes)

Hamburg, St. Pauli

Cuxhaven

Strategic planning

4. Failure of FPM + Hinterland inundation

X2. measures (z.B.: Polder, 2. Dike line)

3. Probability of failure(Risk, Probabillistic) of FPM

Situation n1,2,3,(4),(5) X1,X2, Xn

5. Hydrodanmic effectiveness,Change of risk

DGM1© LVermA-SH

Research focus within PEARL (III)

• Analysis and quantification of the Interdependences/ interactions between processes (WP2)

• Application of the developed modelling framework and tools for risk assessment (WP2)

• Application of the holistic risk assessment approach and modelling platform (WP3)

• Real time modelling and application of the GPU for the KALYPSO evacuation module (WP4)

• i) Sensitivity study to assess (climate) adaptation measures, ii) Application of the developed modelling framework for the selection of measures and strategies, iii) Organization of LAAs to support active SH participation (WP5)

The Elbe Estuary Model (I)

Water level boundary

Discharge boundary

• Model set up with

KalypsoTelemac

Telemac 2D

• Boundaries:

H-Boundary:

o Cuxhaven

Q-Boundary:

o Geesthacht

• Calibration with focus to

hydrodynamic

16 water level gauges

6 velocity stations

The Elbe Estuary Model (II)

• Implementation of MOS-

Prediction (BSH, early

waring system)

current and predicted water

level database

• 9 Gauges along Elbe

Estuary:

Cuxhaven, Brunsbüttel,

Brokdorf, Glückstadt, …

• Aim: predicted storm surges

as input of the operational

Elbe Esturary model

Methodology of contingency

management

• Development of a methodology for contingency management

(evacuation) and its implementation in the Kalypso Evacuation

Module

Objective: real-time, close to reality simulation (i.e. to consider each pedestrian

individually)

Extending the models chain of Elbe Estuary model

• The theoretical model - A spatially continuous force-based model for

simulating pedestrian dynamics (in collaboration with the research

centre for super computing Jülich)

Holisic Risk assessment

• Investigate different aspects of holistic risk assessment

RAFT/RAFT detailed, institutional model, direct/indirect economic models, risk

perception adjusted models

For the beginning: investigation of direct/indirect economic damages ports,

indirect tangible damages of disaster, critical infrastructure

Stakeholder involvement

• Stakeholder analysis performed (analysis of the key actors and their

characterisation (e.g. power/ predictability, interactions and

interdependences)

– Assessment of the development of the stakeholders with extreme events

Rainbow diagramm

Interrelations between stakeholders, decisions made and consuequences

Stakeholder involvement (I)

• Rethinking the LAA concept: tailored approach rather than group

sessions

– Key stakeholder have been selected based on their level of affect and influence

BSU, LSBG, BSH, Ministry for Interior Affairs, Hamburg Port Authority

– Identified stakeholders have been individually contacted expertise, interest

and expectations and the potential contribution related to PEARL been surveyed

Summary

• Build up an operational and strategic Elbe estuary model

• Early warning system, Evacuation model

• Holistic risk assessment different adjusted models

• Adjusted stakeholder involvement

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh

Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant agreement n° 603663 for the research

project PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions).

Thank you for your attention.