Human Behavior Nearby an Explosion

Philip Tannor (CPT.) IDF Ground Forces

Background

• Predicting an enemy’s behavior after a nearby explosion could be useful for:– Planning complex operations– Outlining operational requirements by certain

weapon systems – Developing drills for military units

• In many cases the “interesting” question is how long it takes to escape from a room.

Objectives

• Estimating the amount of time required to escape a room after an explosion in another room in the building.

• Improving general understanding of people’s behavior after a nearby explosion.

• Emphasis: “worst-case” scenario (quick escape), military or guerrilla organization personnel.

Illustration

Method

• The research is based on analyzing videos from the internet, in which people are seen reacting to explosions in their vicinity.

• Most videos:– Urban environment– Captured via security cameras

• If several people are seen in the same video, each person is analyzed individually.

• Sample size: 25 cases (from 10 videos)

Demarcation & Assumptions

• Urban area only• Military or guerrilla organization personnel only• Explosion occurs in another room in the

building• Fairly small explosion (for minimizing civilian

casualties)• Person of interest is not ready for the explosion

Demarcation & Assumptions

• We did not take into account cases of selfless or inefficient stalling, since:– The main goal is to estimate the minimal time of

escaping.– Stalling of this sort is difficult to generalize.

Example of a Video

Findings

Preliminary Analysis

Why Can’t we Stop Here?

• Sample size is limited (25 cases)• Military/guerrilla personnel vs. civilians:

– Differences in ages & gender– Combat training

• Therefore, to conclude the minimal “escape time”, a more detailed analysis is necessary

Detailed Analysis: The Phases

Explosion

Detailed Analysis: Gantt Charts

These were the different observed Patterns:

Recovering from primary shock

Running to a nearby exit

Assuming a defensive position

Stalling

Staying in a defensive position

Time

Recovering from primary shock

Recovering from primary shock

A

B

C

Running to a nearby exit

Running to a nearby exit

A

B

C - Stall & Escape (not considered in analysis)

- Defend & Escape

- Duration strongly depends on the intensity of the shock

- Quick Escape

Detailed Analysis: Total Time (Separated by Cases)

• We addressed four cases: – Quick Escape/Defend & Escape; – With/without a significant physical shock

• The results:

Without a significant physical shock

With a significant physical shock

Escape immediately after explosion

Very quickly Quickly

Escape after assuming defensive position

Quickly After a while

Using the Results for Practical Problems

Defining a “Moderate-Severe” Scenario

• In some cases, predicting the most-severe scenario is important.

• A “moderate-severe” scenario is useful for cases in which otherwise the solution is “too expensive”.

• We used 2 methods to estimate a “moderate-severe” escape time:– Manipulating the figures in the Gantt charts, simulating

having slowed down for one of the phases– Using the 10th percentile from the preliminary findings

(categorized by if physical shock was significant or not)

Final Results

• Dividing into different columns allows matching values with their corresponding tactical use.

Without a significant physical shock

With a significant physical shock

“Most-severe” scenario

Very quickly Quickly

“Moderate-severe” scenario

Quickly After a while

Summary and Conclusions

Summary & Conclusions

• Results are valid only for the first person to leave the room

• Reminder: research focused on the severe cases. In some cases people may stay around for much longer.

• The single “most-severe” value should only be used when clearly necessary. The case will actually occur only if all of the following conditions apply:– No significant physical shock.– No defense or stalling.– No slowing down at any point until leaving the room.

Summary & Conclusions

• Estimating values the values for the “moderate-severe” scenario as well as the “most-severe” scenario has proven to be important.

• Analyzing internet videos as high resolution data may be a useful method for other researches as well.

Questions?